Doug B
Footballguy
Without checking: I believe in the U.S., the fourth shot is already approved for the immunocompromised. Perhaps for some other with high-risk factors, too (e.g., the advanced elderly).
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
Doug B
Footballguy
I can identify a lot with this. Once my wife had her thrice-delayed surgery at the end of February, the COVID calculus changed markedly for our household.
Doug B
Footballguy
Some kind of a quick-flex system, maybe, where rooms are designed for on-the-fly conversion. Dedicated ICU rooms probably risk being unused too often to make perfect financial sense.
@James Daulton? @Terminalxylem? @gianmarco? @growlers? What do we think?
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
That's too bad. The science behind it sounds very compelling, plus I'm a big believer in trying lots of different approaches. In retrospect, I kind of wish I had switched up my vaccines instead of getting all three from Pfizer.
I wonder what's holding them back
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Staffing is the bigger problem, both critical care nurses and MDs
Thats a problem that will take years to fix, assuming there are enough qualified candidates interested in that career path. I wouldn’t be surprised if they struggle to replace workers who have left, let alone hire a bunch of new ones.
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Just got back from Punta de Mita in Mexico. Full week of golf, beach, pool, restaurants. Big crowds with spring break. All had to test yesterday prior to coming back today. Negativo. Good stuff.
Well we really don’t know what that would look like. Currently the government is buying all the vaccine and controlling the reimbursements that providers receive. Part of the reason why pharmacies and other sites have been willing partners is because it was so profitable.
If the funding goes away, that goes into the hands of drug manufacturers and insurance companies. We don’t really know what the cost of the shot will be and how well insurance companies will cover it or reimburse the providers. That could significantly impact access to the vaccine. I could even see some pharmacies opting out completely.
I hope we don’t need another booster or a large stockpile of therapeutics and tests but if we do, I’d rather have the surplus and not have to scramble like we have with tests and PPE in the past.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
was reading this article this morning about the future of Covid vaccines and it didn't mention it other than hopeful they'll be in our arsenal in the future. If you download the Excel sheet from here, it says there are 8 Intranasal vaccine candidates, along with 2 inhaled and 1 aerosol. The Clinical tab however doesn't show much info, other than the public documents where they registered the studies. I haven't seen any results or published findings on any of them.
top dog
Footballguy
Timeline of events with this young mother....
Dec 20 confirmed with COVID
Dec 26 admitted to the hospital
Dec 28 baby is born via emergency c-section / mom ends up on ventilator following delivery
Dec 28 - Jan 11 Mom is on vent, transferred to a different hospital and is close to ECMO treatment at one point
Jan 12 - Mom makes it off the vent
Jan 23 - MOM HOLDS HER NEWBORN BABY FOR THE FIRST TIME AS SHE GETS TO GO HOME!!!
My wife shared with me the photo of mom holding her tiny daughter. It got a little dusty here for a minute. I don't know this girl like my wife does but her back story and day to day updates pulled me into her world and I haven't been so happy to see someone pull through some BS as I have this young girl.
What a strange virus this thing can be. What a roller coaster of emotions. Thanks everyone for your wishes and prayers as I shared in this thread. This mom's story is a testament to how much better we've gotten at fighting this thing. I truly believe that in 2020 mom wouldn't have made it.
Feel free to go back to our regularly scheduled programming of mask debates and whether NI or vax immunity is better, but maybe just for a moment this update on this young woman will provide a feel good moment when those moments seem to be at a premium in our world.
Just to follow up on this mom one more time.... Almost exactly 3 months later this young lady has returned to work today. In a matter of 3 months she went from getting sick, giving birth, and almost dying. At 23.
I'm going to swing by their office before the end of the day and give her a big hug.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
CDC "quietly" removes 72000 covid deaths due to a coding error. What a joke.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cdc-reports-fewer-covid-19-pediatric-deaths-after-data-correction-2022-03-18/
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cdc-reports-fewer-covid-19-pediatric-deaths-after-data-correction-2022-03-18/
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Wastewater data continues to be worrisome.
On the other hand, this Twitter thread argues that the CDC is overstating the spike by focusing on percentage change, which may just be going from "very low" to "low".
Any of the regulars here who can police this debate for proles like me?
On the other hand, this Twitter thread argues that the CDC is overstating the spike by focusing on percentage change, which may just be going from "very low" to "low".
Any of the regulars here who can police this debate for proles like me?
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
YLE said the same thing.
Wastewater
Wastewater is our best early indicator of change. However, the CDC only displays wastewater surveillance for some jurisdictions. On top of this, they only report trends (% increase or decrease) as opposed to absolute numbers. This is a challenge because, for example, a 1000% increase of a small number can still be a small number. Right now, wastewater data is very noisy—some places are increasing and some are decreasing.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES
Thu 02/17/2022 - 110,268
Mon 02/21/2022 - 88,636
Mon 02/28/2022 - 60,147
Mon 03/07/2022 - 40,824
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,066
Mon 03/21/2022 - 26,586
DEATHS
Thu 02/17/2022 - 2,157
Mon 02/21/2022 - 1,909
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,552
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,213
Mon 03/14/2022 - 979
Mon 03/21/2022 - 708
...
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 821,375 on 1/13/2022, and was 26,586 on 3/21/2022 -- the lowest since 7/13/2021. That represents 66 consecutive days of decrease in 7-day average of cases.
DEATHS: The 7-day average has dropped for 50 consecutive days from 2,660 on 1/29/2022 to 708 on 3/21/2022 -- the lowest since 8/6/2021.
...
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.
CASES: 12,105 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 247 on both 7/8/2022 and 7/9/2022
CASES
Thu 02/17/2022 - 110,268
Mon 02/21/2022 - 88,636
Mon 02/28/2022 - 60,147
Mon 03/07/2022 - 40,824
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,066
Mon 03/21/2022 - 26,586
DEATHS
Thu 02/17/2022 - 2,157
Mon 02/21/2022 - 1,909
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,552
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,213
Mon 03/14/2022 - 979
Mon 03/21/2022 - 708
...
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 821,375 on 1/13/2022, and was 26,586 on 3/21/2022 -- the lowest since 7/13/2021. That represents 66 consecutive days of decrease in 7-day average of cases.
DEATHS: The 7-day average has dropped for 50 consecutive days from 2,660 on 1/29/2022 to 708 on 3/21/2022 -- the lowest since 8/6/2021.
...
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.
CASES: 12,105 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 247 on both 7/8/2022 and 7/9/2022
Struggling to see how this is odd. Isn't this basically normal? Kids get sick. Always have.
belljr
Footballguy
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Flu season ends in March. It kind of makes sense that it was pushed back a little with kids wearing masks in winter.I dont recall a lot of flu and cold cases in the Spring
belljr
Footballguy
Thats possible - didnt think of that.
We had 4 kids down on my daughters team the last week or so.....
ETA: I should have replied MASKS DONT WORK .....lols
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Yeah it’s late in the season but not too unusual. There’s a lot of allergies and various other respiratory illnesses going around. Some probably COVID (no one testing) but a lot of other stuff too. Can’t keep the cold medicine in stock.
Battersbox
Footballguy
There has been an uptick in my wife's school for sure with cold-like symptoms. My wife actually took a sick day this past week, which she never does. Ran a home test, no Covid.
The theory that Covid was crowding out other viruses makes sense in the current environment...Covid decreases, flus and regular colds come back.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Update: I had some very minor cold symptoms over the weekend (sniffles, little bit of a sore throat) and was of course freaking out, but by yesterday they had disappeared. Today my boss (who's also going on the trip) texts me that someone had to pull out of the delegation for a positive test, and I #### you not, within a half hour my sore throat had returned. I know it's totally psychosomatic, but damn!
My plan is to get a PCR test tomorrow morning at the place around the corner from my home. If that one comes back negative, I'm in the clear for Friday. If it's positive, I still have until Friday to get a negative antigen. Since it's been established that, at the tail end of an infection, a negative antigen indicates you're no longer contagious, I would feel comfortable traveling in that situation. But hopefully tomorrow's comes back negative and I don't have to worry about Plan B
Pipes
Footballguy
That and less mask wearing/more interaction with people as well. Had my first cold in 2 years last week, almost forgot what it was like.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Additional update: My PCR came back negative! If nothing else, at least I know I'm getting on the plane. Now I just have to make sure I test negative again when I get off the plane so I can actually participate in the trip. I think Israel still has pretty strict quarantine rules for visitors who test positive, so it would kind of suck to fly all the way there and then get trapped in the hotel.
John Stockton can see what is happening. I guess he's wacko too, huh?
https://ahnfiredigital.com/nba/brooklyn-nets/john-stockton-says-he-stands-with-kyrie-irving-and-aaron-rodgers-claims-to-have-a-list-of-hundreds-of-vaccinated-athletes-that-have-dropped-dead-on-the-field/
https://ahnfiredigital.com/nba/brooklyn-nets/john-stockton-says-he-stands-with-kyrie-irving-and-aaron-rodgers-claims-to-have-a-list-of-hundreds-of-vaccinated-athletes-that-have-dropped-dead-on-the-field/
top dog
Footballguy
Just a friendly reminder to all that the PSF has a pretty awesome thread where you can go argue about whether vaccines are killing or helping everyone. It even includes great arguments about sources, whether mandates were meant to.... well.. I'm not sure what the ulterior motive theory is on mandates today.. but regardless.. It is a great place to post.
Yeah, most likely he is. Awesome that he has this hidden list. A Mormon, a guy who thinks the world is flat and the anti Tom Brady (try and win by allowing the team more money for other players) who cries every time another QB makes more money are your heroes?
Please do yourself a favor and expand your mind to real science and real medical professionals rather than getting your thoughts from a tiny fraction of athletes and conspiracy nuts.
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Mormons dont believe the world is flat. They have an anti-science belief of where native Americans migrated from, but as far as I know they aren't flat earthers.Yeah, most likely he is. Awesome that he has this hidden list. A Mormon, a guy who thinks the world is flat and the anti Tom Brady (try and win by allowing the team more money for other players) who cries every time another QB makes more money are your heroes?
Please do yourself a favor and expand your mind to real science and real medical professionals rather than getting your thoughts from a tiny fraction of athletes and conspiracy nuts.
Mormon = Stockton, flat earther = Kyrie and anti-Tom Brady = Rodgers.
A good video on Mormonism: https://youtu.be/UMxKJeba5lA
I'm also not saying all Mormons are bad, just that some zealots are like other religous zealots who seem to have a problem with vaccines like somewhere in the Bible it says though shalt not believe in new vaccines in the year 2021, but do please get your tetanus and flu shots.
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offdee
Footballguy
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
The way you said it is tatamount to saying some Christians are racist or some Muslims are women beaters. There are zealots in every religion, it lends itself to that.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Sorry for offloading my anxiety onto this forum. It's been a stressful week for a number of reasons, which I won't elaborate on because, well ...
Once this trip is over, I promise to dial my anxiety level down to appropriate levels for a middle-age Jewish dude (which is to say, still way higher than 98% of the population)
Right, that’s all I said. He’s a Mormon and that lends itself to him potentially being a zealot who would decry vaccines just like the guy who believes we get better 5G coverage. The Southpark episode on it was hysterical, but I also said in no way was I saying all Mormons are bad. That’s you reading into it and since you missed the inference to all 3 guys he mentioned with the 3 traits, I’ll just assume you missed my statement that he’s a religious zealot.
What makes you think John Stockton is a Mormon? Just because he PLAYED in Utah doesn't mean he's a Mormon. What a horrible take.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
He's Roman Catholic
ETA: This article cracks me up. Yes, here are all the reasons that Mormons love Stockton. I've been racking my brain trying to think of any other factors that might enter into the equation, and I just can't think of any. It's like my brain is experiencing a complete whiteout
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lol, I completely flubbed that. I always thought he was. My bad. I’ll just call him a zealot. It did provide some enjoyment as I rewatched some of the Joseph Smith Southpark scenes. Highly recommended.
belljr
Footballguy
Meh I get where you are coming from though, Travel out of country for the first time in a long time and it would suck to get there and basically have to come home......
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Jobber
Footballguy
I really hope you busted out the “You’ll get nothing, and like it!” line on someone when you hit the clubhouse.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
So the Dinsy house was finally infiltrated. After two years, Dinsy Jr. and I both threw up a + in the last few days.
Everyone is going to get this sooner or later -- like 100% of us -- so I thought I'd share this. Took a long time to find something Omicron specific that broke everything out by age and vax status, but GB the good folk in Australia.
People in the US are probably more intersted in the right side of the chart (Pfizer is much more like Moderna than AZ). Note that this is per 10,000 people (not 100k or 1MM) after you're infected.
Everyone is going to get this sooner or later -- like 100% of us -- so I thought I'd share this. Took a long time to find something Omicron specific that broke everything out by age and vax status, but GB the good folk in Australia.
People in the US are probably more intersted in the right side of the chart (Pfizer is much more like Moderna than AZ). Note that this is per 10,000 people (not 100k or 1MM) after you're infected.
worrierking
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
GL Dinsy and family.
It's frustrating that we don't have good information in so many areas that is Omicron exclusive. I understand it really just hit 3-4 months ago, but the number of cases is so high that we should be able to separate Omicron from Delta and Delta from the others. We don't have much info on masks vs. Omicron, Outdoors vs. indoors with Omicron, how much time does it take being exposed to someone with Omicron to be infected etc. We can't make personal decisions or public policy recommendations using older data. It's a new virus. C'mon science! Move along faster!
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
We're fine. I've been a lot sicker for sure.
I was pretty happy someone had already done the homework above TBH.
Also, it's interesting to reverse engineer things from those #s. At least it was for me.
At some point in 2020 I found data that estimated that a 50-65 year old male had a 1/200 (0.5%) chance of dying if they got COVID. That's pre-vax and pre Omicron.
The chart above says they're around 1/25,000 for me today (.4/10,000).
Per the chart above, being vaxxed and recently boosted cuts risk by ~96% -- which is in line with other data. Take that out and the odds rise to 1/909.
But that's only for males 50-59 (not 50-65, and 60-69 is 3x+ riskier). Doing a little bit of fun with numbers to back the 60-65 year olds out, and you get an estimate of 20/10,000 (1/500).
Omicron is roughly 50% less fatal on a case basis than earlier variants, so double the above to 1/250. Which is 0.4% and very close to the baseline 0.5% number I was using before Omicron and before vaccines.
And by not getting the earlier strains and not getting it until after the booster the overall risk was reduced by roughly 99% (0.4% to 0.004%).
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Doug B
Footballguy
(NOTE: The figures in the graphs -- even numbers from a few months ago -- have been updated in recent days. Generally, they've risen but the general trends are unchanged)
Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,737
Mon 02/21/2022 - 88,636
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,386
Mon 03/07/2022 - 42,020
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,893
Mon 03/21/2022 - 28,903
Mon 03/28/2022 - 26,978
DEATHS
Thu 02/17/2022 - 2,176
Tue 02/22/2022 - 1,924
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,734
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,295
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,117
Mon 03/21/2022 - 837
Mon 03/28/2022 - 559
...
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 823,840 on 1/13/2022, and was 26,978 on 3/28/2022 -- the lowest since 7/13/2021. That represents 73 consecutive days of decrease in 7-day average of cases.
DEATHS: The 7-day average has dropped for 57 consecutive days from 2,741 on 1/29/2022 to 559 on 3/28/2022 -- the lowest since 8/3/2021.
...
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.
CASES: 12,196 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2022
Updating numbers to see where things stand today from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,737
Mon 02/21/2022 - 88,636
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,386
Mon 03/07/2022 - 42,020
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,893
Mon 03/21/2022 - 28,903
Mon 03/28/2022 - 26,978
DEATHS
Thu 02/17/2022 - 2,176
Tue 02/22/2022 - 1,924
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,734
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,295
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,117
Mon 03/21/2022 - 837
Mon 03/28/2022 - 559
...
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 823,840 on 1/13/2022, and was 26,978 on 3/28/2022 -- the lowest since 7/13/2021. That represents 73 consecutive days of decrease in 7-day average of cases.
DEATHS: The 7-day average has dropped for 57 consecutive days from 2,741 on 1/29/2022 to 559 on 3/28/2022 -- the lowest since 8/3/2021.
...
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the main thrust of vaccinations and before Delta.
CASES: 12,196 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2022
Doug B
Footballguy
The cases, U.S. wide, have essentially plateaued. I would expect that this past week represents the last few days that the 7-day case average continues to decline. A 2.5 month run is nothing to sneeze at, though. Perhaps Omicron BA.2 has to finish making its way through the populace before case numbers can resume their downward slide.
The 7-day averages of deaths is still in freefall. Death averages will probably slow their descent at some point, but IMHO Omicron BA.2 is not going to be enough to cause a death spike.
Anecdotally -- without hard numbers to link -- COVID hospitalization information from different parts of the country look pretty darn good. Would love to see some easy-peasy figures assembled somewhere to wrap up all the hospitalization numbers with a bow ... but for now, encouraging anecdotes are welcome.
The 7-day averages of deaths is still in freefall. Death averages will probably slow their descent at some point, but IMHO Omicron BA.2 is not going to be enough to cause a death spike.
Anecdotally -- without hard numbers to link -- COVID hospitalization information from different parts of the country look pretty darn good. Would love to see some easy-peasy figures assembled somewhere to wrap up all the hospitalization numbers with a bow ... but for now, encouraging anecdotes are welcome.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The agency amended the emergency use authorizations as follows:
A second booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine or Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine may be administered to individuals 50 years of age and older at least 4 months after receipt of a first booster dose of any authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.
A second booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine or Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine may be administered to individuals 50 years of age and older at least 4 months after receipt of a first booster dose of any authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The first booster continues to provide something like 80% additional protection vs hospitalization and death -- so it's the big one for most people.
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