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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

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What if... and I may be way over some folks heads with this.... but what IF there was a gray area between "COVID iS oVeR" and "OmG iM nOt LeAvInG My hOuSe wItHoUt A mAsK"? 

What IF it was possible to remain aware of where things stand, without it consuming every thought.... and what IF you lived a perfectly normal life while checking on things periodically? 

Naww... that doesn't fit the hyperbole narrative so it's probably impossible. Gotta be totally polar black and white. What was I thinking... nevermind :lol:  

 
encaitar said:
You don't look both ways before crossing the street?  You don't check your mirrors before changing lanes?

There's being "afraid" of something and there's "taking all precautions one should take" and they are two different things.
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Yes I do both things. Taking precautions have nothing to do with worrying about them.

 
jobarules said:
You literally said you will worry about long covid the same as you would worry about getting hit by a car.
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Right, there’s an amount of worry, but it’s not a lot. If you had absolutely zero worries about getting hit by a car, you wouldn’t look before crossing the street. 

It’s just enough amount of worry to take sensible precautions. Why is this so hard to understand? Why so obtuse, warden?

 
Interesting tidbit here..... just got back from 3 nights in Santa Barbara for a college reunion.  Uber/Lyft drivers weren't enforcing the "mask rule" in their cars, and only about 50% of them were wearing masks themselves.    :shrug:  

 
YLE UPDATE: MAY 2ND (Today); 

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-may-2?s=r

SNIP:
After a massive BA.1 wave and no BA.2 wave, BA.4 and BA.5 are taking hold while they move into the winter season. In the past two weeks, cases have increased 173% and test positivity rate is high (20%).

Hospital admissions have also started increasing. Gauteng—the epicenter (once again)—has seen a 63% increase in hospitalizations in the past week, but thankfully started off at a very low baseline. While it’s still early to draw conclusions about the severity of the resurgence, positive signals are coming from hospitalization data: 23% of admissions are for severe disease with BA.4/5 infection (vs. 34% with BA.1 and 64% with Delta). Case fatality rates also remain low compared to previous waves.

---

Recent Pre-Print Study of BA4 and BA5 show immune escape is even more significant with previous Omicron strains, However Vaccination neuralization does still seem significant enough to provide solid protection vs serious disease. That said "based on neutralization escape, BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave."

https://secureservercdn.net/166.62.108.196/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/MEDRXIV-2022-274477v1-Sigal.pdf

 

 
[icon] said:
YLE UPDATE: MAY 2ND (Today); 

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-may-2?s=r

SNIP:
After a massive BA.1 wave and no BA.2 wave, BA.4 and BA.5 are taking hold while they move into the winter season. In the past two weeks, cases have increased 173% and test positivity rate is high (20%).

Hospital admissions have also started increasing. Gauteng—the epicenter (once again)—has seen a 63% increase in hospitalizations in the past week, but thankfully started off at a very low baseline. While it’s still early to draw conclusions about the severity of the resurgence, positive signals are coming from hospitalization data: 23% of admissions are for severe disease with BA.4/5 infection (vs. 34% with BA.1 and 64% with Delta). Case fatality rates also remain low compared to previous waves.

---

Recent Pre-Print Study of BA4 and BA5 show immune escape is even more significant with previous Omicron strains, However Vaccination neuralization does still seem significant enough to provide solid protection vs serious disease. That said "based on neutralization escape, BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave."

https://secureservercdn.net/166.62.108.196/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/MEDRXIV-2022-274477v1-Sigal.pdf

 
Click to expand...


That curve has the same sharp increase that Omicron had, the difference that is now mask usage has plummeted and people think this is all over..  Yikes.  Have a great summer, everyone.  🤒

 
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[icon] said:
YLE UPDATE: MAY 2ND (Today); 

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affairs-may-2?s=r

SNIP:
After a massive BA.1 wave and no BA.2 wave, BA.4 and BA.5 are taking hold while they move into the winter season. In the past two weeks, cases have increased 173% and test positivity rate is high (20%).

Hospital admissions have also started increasing. Gauteng—the epicenter (once again)—has seen a 63% increase in hospitalizations in the past week, but thankfully started off at a very low baseline. While it’s still early to draw conclusions about the severity of the resurgence, positive signals are coming from hospitalization data: 23% of admissions are for severe disease with BA.4/5 infection (vs. 34% with BA.1 and 64% with Delta). Case fatality rates also remain low compared to previous waves.

---

Recent Pre-Print Study of BA4 and BA5 show immune escape is even more significant with previous Omicron strains, However Vaccination neuralization does still seem significant enough to provide solid protection vs serious disease. That said "based on neutralization escape, BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave."

https://secureservercdn.net/166.62.108.196/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/MEDRXIV-2022-274477v1-Sigal.pdf

 
Click to expand...


This is why we are getting an Omicron addition to the vaccine for a fall booster.

Anecdotally, cases in my realm are popping up again.  One repeat case in a pre-teen who had Omicron in January.  Will see if the whole family gets it again.

I am supposed to fly to the Caribbean next week with my wife and kids.  We have been masked and careful this whole time, though I took the train to the office yesterday. If one of us gets sick before the trip (or on it), I will be so upset.

 
I liked this opinion article quite a bit.  I've changed my mind on several things during the pandemic.  Maybe I should take a fresh look at some others.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/05/covid-opinions-school-closures/629736/

Quote:

"Many of us have updated our beliefs about COVID at some point in the past two years, even if we haven’t said so publicly. Perhaps you started out worried that the coronavirus was easily transmitted via surfaces, then you discarded that fear upon further evidence. Maybe you are a major infectious-disease specialist who at first thought that young, healthy people didn’t need boosters, then decided they should get them after all. Maybe you committed the ultimate noble flip-flop: You overcame your skepticism of vaccines and opted to get vaccinated."

 
Something changed in my son the last year. He has bad anxiety. He obsesses about his looks and hitting puberty and being made fun of. Hes seeing a therapist now. She said she sees it all the time now and blames it on the kids being home and wearing masks for almost 2 years.

 
My company (major US Insurance corporation) just removed the vaccine requirement to enter the office. Sounds like they are admitting it is over also. They want us to start going back into the office more regularly. Bummer lol

 
jobarules said:
Something changed in my son the last year. He has bad anxiety. He obsesses about his looks and hitting puberty and being made fun of. Hes seeing a therapist now. She said she sees it all the time now and blames it on the kids being home and wearing masks for almost 2 years.
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Um he’s obsessing about his looks and being made fun of, sounds like he’s…hitting puberty. In your rush to blame masks and lockdowns, did you forgot what it was like to be a teenager?

 
jobarules said:
My company (major US Insurance corporation) just removed the vaccine requirement to enter the office. Sounds like they are admitting it is over also. They want us to start going back into the office more regularly. Bummer lol
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Being flexible to changes in how the virus behaves goes both ways. Being vaccinated doesn’t stop transmission like it did with the original variants, restricting access based on vaccination status doesn’t make sense until there’s an improved vaccine that is better suited to what’s circulating. 

 
jobarules said:
My rush? Did you read what I wrote?
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Yes I see that you said the therapist said that. I have also read your posts through the pandemic and you have continually steered all available information to fit the narrative you push. I’m sure the therapist put all the blame on masks and lockdown, no other teenage boy has ever been concerned about his looks or what others say.

 
I'm not gonna go so far as to say it's caused or even increased my kids' anxiety, but it could be a factor.  My daughter definitely has something going on and my boy prefers to just stay in and play video games or watch YouTube.  I guess that's like a lot of kids these days (even pre-COVID) but I'd bet that my boy would be way more social had we not been in the COVID environment the past two years.  

My girl is finally able to go out and be more social with Girl Scouts and choir and volleyball.

The boy has Cub Scouts, and weekly basketball skills class.... but I wish they both got out and played in the neighborhood more.

 
nirad3 said:
I'm not gonna go so far as to say it's caused or even increased my kids' anxiety, but it could be a factor.  My daughter definitely has something going on and my boy prefers to just stay in and play video games or watch YouTube.  I guess that's like a lot of kids these days (even pre-COVID) but I'd bet that my boy would be way more social had we not been in the COVID environment the past two years.  

My girl is finally able to go out and be more social with Girl Scouts and choir and volleyball.

The boy has Cub Scouts, and weekly basketball skills class.... but I wish they both got out and played in the neighborhood more.
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I don’t disagree that the pandemic has an effect on the mental health of kids…really everyone. It’s blaming it all on masking and lockdowns.

Living through a pandemic is not normal but we’re trying to pretend like it’s normal. Along with masks and social isolation, these kids have to live through fights about masks, vaccines and school that has become highly politicized. In many cases they were the pawns in these fights. Many also have had to deal with family members or friends who have gotten seriously ill or died during the pandemic.

The pandemic will have long-term effects on our physical and mental health. Minimizing it to just masks and social distancing is lazy when there is so much more contributing to it.

 
jobarules said:
Something changed in my son the last year. He has bad anxiety. He obsesses about his looks and hitting puberty and being made fun of. Hes seeing a therapist now. She said she sees it all the time now and blames it on the kids being home and wearing masks for almost 2 years.
Click to expand...


Sorry your son is reaching his teens. 

It's a tough time.. rife with insecurity and obsession with self image.  
 

After a careful slice of retrospect, coupled with cursory napkin-based analysis of the data.... 96.8% of young men his age......

... are experiencing the same #### as every teenage boy since the 60s,

He'll be fine. I mean, look at his old man! Good stock, 

 
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Want to give it maybe another week to be sure ... but right now, nationwide 7-day-average COVID case numbers in the U.S. (those that make it into official counts) appear to be plateauing per Worldometers.

Over the last ten days of April, there were several days over 60,000 (counted cases, not averages), peaking at over 67,000. Now, it's still early -- and there are likely still some upward adjustments to come -- but the 5/2 and 5/3 case counts have been in the low 50k range.

 
jobarules said:
I cant believe you people are still obsessed with case counts. 75% of people had Omicron antibodies in a recent study. Its time to move on people. You get COVID now, you'll be fine. 
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I agree with the bolded for the most part for a majority of people. I wish it was more like an overwhelming majority of people ... but we deal with it as it comes, I suppose.

While looking at raw case count numbers don't tell us today the same things they told us in 2020, I wouldn't say caring about those numbers is misplaced concern. To see where the nation is going in regards to COVID, it helps to regard and see all moving pieces. For instance, it's important that we note that case counts and COVID deaths have decoupled -- case counts have dipped and risen over the last five weeks while deaths continue to drop (after a brief plateau the week after Easter. If we quit watching case counts, we miss information like that.

 
My friend is on day 3 of covid.  Terrible headache and feeling like being run over by a bus has subsided.  But is having some pretty bad vertigo.  Moderna vaxxed and boosted.  

 
Doug B said:
Want to give it maybe another week to be sure ... but right now, nationwide 7-day-average COVID case numbers in the U.S. (those that make it into official counts) appear to be plateauing per Worldometers.

Over the last ten days of April, there were several days over 60,000 (counted cases, not averages), peaking at over 67,000. Now, it's still early -- and there are likely still some upward adjustments to come -- but the 5/2 and 5/3 case counts have been in the low 50k range.
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Do you know if the same states have been reporting numbers consistently? Looks like quite a few didn't report yesterday. I know Maryland, for instance, recently started reporting data only on "business days" instead of every day like they had been throughout.

 
Doug B said:
Want to give it maybe another week to be sure ... but right now, nationwide 7-day-average COVID case numbers in the U.S. (those that make it into official counts) appear to be plateauing per Worldometers.

Over the last ten days of April, there were several days over 60,000 (counted cases, not averages), peaking at over 67,000. Now, it's still early -- and there are likely still some upward adjustments to come -- but the 5/2 and 5/3 case counts have been in the low 50k range.
Click to expand...


PA seems to still be going up based on NYT graph.

 
humpback said:
Do you know if the same states have been reporting numbers consistently? Looks like quite a few didn't report yesterday. I know Maryland, for instance, recently started reporting data only on "business days" instead of every day like they had been throughout.
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I know some have shifted to weekly reporting. It's all over the place now. There is no standard. 

 
humpback said:
Do you know if the same states have been reporting numbers consistently? Looks like quite a few didn't report yesterday. I know Maryland, for instance, recently started reporting data only on "business days" instead of every day like they had been throughout.
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You're on to something. Some states are reporting weekly, even. That's one reason I usually prefer to look at 7-day averages. Still, I don't mind sneak-peeking at recent one-day numbers to see if a pattern is forming, being maintained, etc. With the full knowledge that recent one-day numbers will be adjusted, and usually upward.

 
Apparently Puerto Rico is having a significant spike since lifting restrictions in March.  It accounts for 7% of US cases.  And I am supposed to go there next week.

 
Biff84 said:
Yes I see that you said the therapist said that. I have also read your posts through the pandemic and you have continually steered all available information to fit the narrative you push. I’m sure the therapist put all the blame on masks and lockdown, no other teenage boy has ever been concerned about his looks or what others say.
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I don't always agree with joba, but I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt in terms of evaluating his own son.

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
I don't always agree with joba, but I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt in terms of evaluating his own son.
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Actually, I didn't evaluate him. The therapist did. I thought he had some OCD tendencies and she said no, its anxiety and she is seeing it more now than ever and blamed the rise of it on remote learning, kids being away from their peers for a long time, and masks. I was shocked when she said it because I was blaming social media for his body image issues. Then she asked me how long this has been going on and I said since around September last year. She asked what changed? Thats when kids went back to school full time since the pandemic. My son himself was terrified of removing his mask when the mandate was lifted because "everyone was gonna see his face". 

Everyone always thinks Im pushing a narrative. Nope, Im pushing my everyday experiences.

 
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jobarules said:
Actually, I didn't evaluate him. The therapist did. I thought he had some OCD tendencies and she said no, its anxiety and she is seeing it more now than ever and blamed the rise of it on remote learning, kids being away from their peers for a long time, and masks. I was shocked when she said it because I was blaming social media for his body image issues. Then she asked me how long this has been going on and I said since around September last year. She asked what changed? Thats when kids went back to school full time since the pandemic. My son himself was terrified of removing his mask when the mandate was lifted because "everyone was gonna see his face". 

Everyone always thinks Im pushing a narrative. Nope, Im pushing my everyday experiences.
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Right, I didn't mean "evaluate" in a clinical sense. I just meant that if you say you've observed a change in your son's behavior since the pandemic, I'm not going to second-guess you based off of your brief description. You obviously know him better than any of us, and I'm sure there were a million other details that you didn't include in your post.

That always drives me crazy when people do that. Like a woman will describe an incident where a guy made her feel creeped out, and randos will come in and say, "Maybe you just misunderstood what he was saying." Or in the Brian Flores thread, I posted an account of a Black coaching candidate who said he had felt disrespected during interviews, and people were disputing his conclusions. And I'm like, the guy was in the room, and if he said he felt disrespected, odds are that he was.

Maybe you're wrong. Maybe the therapist is wrong. But I'm sure as hell not qualified to make that determination based off of what you wrote.

 
Gilroy34 said:
My daughter just texted me 13 of the 16 students in her health class are out with Covid today.
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Covid cases definitely on the rise. I no longer look at the official numbers outside of hospitalizations.  So many people have the home testing kits and this has led to a situation where the number of official reported cases is no longer accurate. I personally know probably 30-40 people that have covid or have gotten covid and recovered from it in the past couple of weeks between friends/family/customers. For those of whom are high risk or are around high risk individuals—my advice is to be careful and to monitor the situation around you.  Ask friends/family members that work for schools what their covid or attendance trends are looking like. You cannot wait for “official numbers” to rise before acting accordingly as it might be too late.   The data has always been a lagging indicator—and now with the vast prevalence of home testing—it’s an extremely lagging indicator. 

 
We’re going through round 2 or 3 of sickness from school. Both kids have been out all week and my wife now has it but not me yet. Could be anything as no one has been positive on our home COVID tests. I still suspect COVID as our youngest (unvaccinated) is much more symptomatic than her older sister who’s had 2 shots and a recent confirmed asymptomatic case. Taking her to the doctor in a bit to see what they think. I’m sure I’ll have the same soon.

 
Biff84 said:
We’re going through round 2 or 3 of sickness from school. Both kids have been out all week and my wife now has it but not me yet. Could be anything as no one has been positive on our home COVID tests. I still suspect COVID as our youngest (unvaccinated) is much more symptomatic than her older sister who’s had 2 shots and a recent confirmed asymptomatic case. Taking her to the doctor in a bit to see what they think. I’m sure I’ll have the same soon.
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Just went through this at my house. My wife if still coughing 3 weeks later. I somehow avoided it. Both wife and son tested negative for covid and flu. Just a run of the mill virus going around here but with lingering cough. 

 
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