*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (28 Viewers)

[ignatiusjreilly]

It is concerning that you can apparently get re-infected within 2-3 weeks.

I am supposed to attend a real conference for the first time since the pandemic in Utah in a couple of weeks.  People coming from all over, but less than 100 attendees I think.  I am a little worried and not sure about masking etc.

This is one of the assertions in the article that critics have really been going to town on. This thread (not a blue checkmark, but apparently a vaccine researcher at Moderna) is typical in that it focuses on the author's overly categorical language (as does @Doug B above):

Let me fix this for you. “Possible”- in the sense that anything is possible in certain circumstances. “Each reinfection confers no immunity”- a flat out lie and blatant misinformation at best. I’m not finished. This article is just plain wrong and needs to be challenged.

To start, the article claims: “As a consequence it is now possible to be reinfected with one of Omicron’s variants every two to three weeks." This is utterly false. Now, STOP right there. I'm NOT saying it's not possible to get reinfected within three weeks. I’m saying the use of

the word “every” is an issue. This did happen for an unfortunate few with regards to Delta (as we know from studies an infection with Delta alone didn’t provide much immunity to Omicron BUT vaccination on top of a previous infection DID). In other words, this should be deemed

as a RARE occurrence and NOT as a “this is going to happen to everyone so brace yourselves” kind of thing. What we haven’t seen is ANY substantial evidence of reinfection EVERY 2-3 weeks (3 infections within 6 weeks and implication of this being ongoing). Is this possible?

Perhaps. Anything is. But there hasn’t been any substantial evidence of it besides anecdotal evidence and the occasional tweet that can’t really be verified. However, if you are interested in reinfection data and the statistics on it, I would see ONS and https://t.co/f5ERbvKDWj

There is absolutely NO data shared in the article to back up their claim on reinfections. Interesting, right? Moving on. "The data also shows that each reinfection confers no immunity. A summer infection, for example, will not protect you against a fall infection."

Wrong. Just PLAIN WRONG. This one is so wrong it almost hurts. The data shows NO such thing. The data shows a REDUCTION in NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODIES, and thus some immune escape. It DOES NOT show "NO IMMUNITY.” By the way, population level data shows us unequivocally that it DOES

confer immunity. If you have followed me for a while now, you know that I have said numerous times now that immunity is MORE than just neutralizing antibodies. This claim made in this article (with absolutely NO data shared to back it up once again) completely ignores

immunological memory. Now, why would that be? Immunological memory consists of antibodies, memory B-cells, memory CD8+ T-cells, and memory CD4+ T-cells. These responses are what give us enduring protection even against newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Just starting her thread -- over the first several tweets, she's right on. Her Twitter thread is an essential companion to the "Forever Plague" article.

She links to a couple more (although all are not blue check marks). This one, although not a blue check mark account, has a pretty plainly stated rebuttal to all the points made in the above article. I think the consensus among all the reputable sources is that the article is laden with cherry picked data to make outlandish points that are partial truths or outright lies.  And from the other comments, that's par for the course for that site/author (I'm not familiar with them). 

 

[Capella]

That article is just anecdotal garbage written by somebody who either doesn’t understand how to interpret data or is (more likely) willfully misinterpreting it to make their terrible point. 
 

These people are just as bad as the covid is just the flu people from the beginning. 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

That article is just anecdotal garbage written by somebody who either doesn’t understand how to interpret data or is (more likely) willfully misinterpreting it to make their terrible point. 
 

These people are just as bad as the covid is just the flu people from the beginning. 

That was my reaction as well. I just wanted to hear other people say it. 

BTW, most disappointing thing I discovered while searching for Twitter commentary: the original article was shared uncritically by Washington Post reporter Taylor Lorenz, who has made a name for herself in part by covering online misinformation 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Unfortunately guys like @Leeroy Jenkins fall for the doomsday crap hook, line, and sinker everytime. His entire family just got over a bout of mild covid and hes STILL worried about attending a conference thanks to that article.

That's not true at all.  I read that article and thought is was BS hyperbole.  But re-infection is a thing, and it is interesting and problematic if you can be re-infected so quickly, while the virus is still so prevalent. 

My belief is that we all will get it eventually, just like we have all fallen victim to the other several coronaviruses that circulate.  The hope, of course, is that through acquired immunity (through vaccination and/or exposure) that COVID-19 is eventually rendered no more harmless to everyone than the "common cold" -- and I think that will be the case.  Doesn't mean that I want to volunteer to be infected or to re-infect anyone in my house. 

But I am attending the conference.  I am going to the office.  My wife and kids are going shopping, to parties, to people's houses and to events, etc.  But we wear a mask when we feel it is appropriate to do so in public.

And for the record, my wife is still feeling pretty crappy several weeks later.  She is basically exhausted by 1pm daily.  

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Anecdotally, my neighbors just all got COVID.  The husband attended a golf weekend.  All meals/events outside, but still caught it from one of the others he was playing with.  The wife and one child caught it from him.  The son, who had COVID previously, has not tested positive (he was the only one who caught it earlier this year).

 

[jobarules]

That's not true at all. 

YOU said you were worried about attending. YOU typed those words. Not me.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

YOU said you were worried about attending. YOU typed those words. Not me.

Here is your quote:  "Unfortunately guys like @Leeroy Jenkins fall for the doomsday crap hook, line, and sinker everytime. His entire family just got over a bout of mild covid and hes STILL worried about attending a conference thanks to that article."

Implying that I am some gullible rube.  But you do you --- that's what you're best at.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I really try to reserve all of my anger for people who intentionally mislead others and none of it for people figuring out how to navigate an incredibly confusing and constantly shifting landscape.

The good news is that, if you're vaccinated, the stakes of any decision you have to make, no matter how vexing, are likely to be dramatically lower. Should you take that trip? Go to that party? Attend that conference? Whatever you decide, it's highly unlikely it will put your or anyone else's health at risk. (And if you are in a situation where you could put someone at risk, you are probably already aware of that and should take appropriate precautions).

My personal method is to balance out how risky I feel the situation is with how important it is for me to go. There's an industry happy hour some people I know have been organizing for a year and a half. I want to check it out, but it's almost comical how the fates have conspired to prevent that from happening. It started pre-vax when I wasn't going to any large social events. Then one time my wife was away and the babysitter fell through at the last minute. Another time I was sick (not with Covid) and in no position to go. Then Delta hit. Then Omicron. And so on. But the truth is, while I'm curious to check it out, I don't really need to go. If it was that important to me, I would have found a way to go already

 

[Terminalxylem]

Yeah, that article is pretty bad, like something a bizarro PSF denizen would post, minus all the partisan, conspiratorial non sequiturs.

Sure, people can get reinfected, and newer variants show immune escape to some degree. And the “law” of declining virulence is hardly a guarantee for SARS-COV-2, or any virus.

But immunity, whether it’s natural or vaccine-derived, still works for most of us, and we’ll continue to refine our treatment and prevention measures despite viral evolution.

Still not “just a flu”, but hardly a forever plague.

 

[Sleestak]

Yeah, that article is pretty bad, like something a bizarro PSF denizen would post, minus all the partisan, conspiratorial non sequiturs.

What motivates a person to write a crap article like that?  Financial gain?  Doomsday fetish?  Seeking attention?  Seeking to corrode faith in institutions?  I would think it would make for a joyless evening's scribble.

 

[lod001]

Unless you have something to hide, you give them what they asked for. This garbage is so dangerous. Anyone with it in their system, well good luck. You are gonna need a lot of it.  You were totally duped with a deadly useless substance (not even remotely a vaccine).

Uruguay judge order pfizer to disclose what is in their toxic garbage. Pfizer leaves Uruguay.

 

[Scoresman]

The whole getting reinfected 2-3 weeks after thing. That’s assuming you get “re-infected” with a different variant, right? Like you had BA.2 and then 3 weeks later get BA.5. Or can you get the same variant again 2-3 weeks later?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

The whole getting reinfected 2-3 weeks after thing. That’s assuming you get “re-infected” with a different variant, right? Like you had BA.2 and then 3 weeks later get BA.5. Or can you get the same variant again 2-3 weeks later?

BA.5, BA.6, whatever it takes

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

“COVID cases keep rising and so does the risk of long COVID. Philly researchers are trying to understand why.“

https://www.inquirer.com/news/long-haul-covid-symptoms-research-20220707.html?utm_source=t.co&cid=Philly.com+Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Philly.com+Twitter+Account

 

[PinkydaPimp]

It is concerning that you can apparently get re-infected within 2-3 weeks.

I am supposed to attend a real conference for the first time since the pandemic in Utah in a couple of weeks.  People coming from all over, but less than 100 attendees I think.  I am a little worried and not sure about masking etc.

Just wear a mask.  I’ve been to a few packed conferences.  Usually not many wear one but there will be others.  It’s no biggie.  Good hedge if your concerned.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

YLE's COVID State of Affairs: July 7

nuggets of interest:

• In India, all eyes are on a new variant: BA.2.75. After first being discovered at the end of May, it quickly took hold and now accounts for 25% of cases, with most samples reported from Maharashtra (Mumbai). There is sparse testing data in India (see the grey bar charts in the figure below), but BA.2.75 appears to be outcompeting BA.5 and BA.2 (with a growth advantage of 17% thus far). This means it has the potential to cause a wave and is important to follow. BA.2.75 cases have been identified in other countries, like Australia, New Zealand, U.K., and Germany, but remain low at this time.
  
• Some discussion of how the above variant is expected to behave in those previously infected with other variants, as well as how that could factor in on the booster situation (and reaffirms the need to get broader protection vs. chasing variants)
  
• For the US: It’s not clear whether BA.5 will result in a wave in the U.S. given our BA.2.12.1 history that other countries did not experience. If we do get a BA.5 wave, it would start about now, so all eyes are on epidemiological trends. The U.S. holds a steady state of ~100,000 reported cases per day. This equates to about 1M “true” cases per day, using back of the napkin math. (At the height of the first Omicron wave, we experienced ~3.9M true cases per day). The steady state is reflected in national wastewater with plateauing trends across every region.
  
• our national test positivity rate (TPR) continues to increase and is at a high rate of 17%; that increase could mean (and has meant historically) that a wave is about to come, but with changing testing metrics/data it's virtually impossible to be sure at this point
  
• Silver lining: hospitalizations and deaths do remain below any previous peaks
  

 

[Doug B]

“COVID cases keep rising and so does the risk of long COVID. Philly researchers are trying to understand why.“

https://www.inquirer.com/news/long-haul-covid-symptoms-research-20220707.html?utm_source=t.co&cid=Philly.com+Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Philly.com+Twitter+Account

I want to point out something really good about this article -- and all the better since it's published in the traditional press: The writer does a great job showing how diverse research findings can be -- indeed, should be.

Instead of grabbing one study's results and running up the hill with them, the writer consistently demonstrates that the results of broad-strokes research vary considerably. Part of the ongoing research into COVID involves working out WHY results might vary this way. Different questions will then have to be asked, different variables held constant or else allowed to change. Often the eventual answers are not in first-blush results, but rather in the gaps identified and the questions raised by those first-several-passes results.

...

For laymen, the progress of research may not be intuitive. You do a study, you get results, and then you've got your answers - right? Right?

Not just yet you don't. Gaining knowledge through experimentation is an iterative process -- having to be repeated over and over and also sometimes with meaningful variation to help fill in gaps or address new questions. For those willing to do a quick, not-so-deep dive into an analogous line of disease research that has advanced farther down the road than COVID research, it's worth reading a summary of research into gastric ulcers from the 1950s through Barry Marshall and Robin Warren's Nobel-Prize-winning research in the 1980s:

Before the 1950s, there were many microbiological descriptions of bacteria in the stomach and in gastric acid secretions, lending credence to both the infective theory and the hyperacidity theory as being causes of peptic ulcer disease. A single study, conducted in 1954, did not find evidence of bacteria on biopsies of the stomach stained traditionally; this effectively established the acid theory as dogma.

This paradigm was altered when Warren and Marshall effectively proved Koch's postulates for causation of PUD by [Heliobacter pylori bacteria] through a series of experiments in the 1980s; however, an extensive effort was required to convince the medical community of the relevance of their work.

Now, all major gastrointestinal societies agree that H. pylori is the primary nondrug cause of PUD worldwide, and advocate its eradication as essential to treatment of gastric and duodenal ulcers. Additionally, H. pylori has been associated with lymphomas and adenocarcinomas of the stomach, and has been classified by the World Health Organization as a carcinogen. Advances in molecular biology in the late 20th century led to the sequencing of the H. pylori genome, resulting in a better understanding of virulence factors responsible for its colonization and infection, on the DNA level.

Look at the timeline at that link. Right now, COVID research is where ulcer research was in the early 1960s -- though one hopes that the general pace of medical research is quicker in the 2020s.

 

[Doug B]

(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs have been getting big adjustments as much as a 7-10 days after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (June 27) numbers settle in. They may rise some more by next week's update, but it would only be by a small amount.)

...

Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES ON THU 07/07/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,688  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 424,816
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,942
Mon 02/21/2022 -   94,244
Mon 02/28/2022 -   62,205
Mon 03/07/2022 -   42,099
Mon 03/14/2022 -   32,909
Mon 03/21/2022 -   28,476
Mon 03/28/2022 -   28,480
Sat   04/02/2022 -   27,597 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/04/2022 -   28,597
Mon 04/11/2022 -   33,921
Mon 04/18/2022 -   40,866
Mon 04/25/2022 -   52,578
Mon 05/02/2022 -   63,219
Mon 05/09/2022 -   81,413
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,134
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,718
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,225
Mon 06/06/2022 - 106,660
Wed 06/08/2022 - 113,264  <-- SPRING SURGE HIGH
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,436
Mon 06/20/2022 -   98,957
Mon 06/27/2022 - 111,630  (96,444 on Wed 06/29/2022)
Wed 06/29/2022 - 113,252  <-- SPRING SURGE 2nd HIGH
Mon 07/04/2022 - 102,344  <--provisional count

DEATHS ON THU 07/07/2022
Sun  01/29/2022 - 2,756  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Thu  02/17/2022 - 2,196
Tue  02/22/2022 - 1,964
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,750
Mon 03/07/2022 - 1,306
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Tue  03/22/2022 - 784
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/04/2022 - 580
Mon 04/11/2022 - 488
Mon 04/18/2022 - 374
Mon 04/25/2022 - 366
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 298
Thu 05/12/2022   - 286  <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/16/2022 - 288
Mon 05/23/2022 - 322
Mon 05/30/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 339
Tue 06/07/2022  - 368  <--SPRING SURGE HIGH
Mon 06/13/2022 - 355
Mon 06/20/2022 - 302  (280 on Wed 06/29/2022)
Mon 06/27/2022 - 319  (213 on Wed 06/29/2022)
Mon 07/04/2022 - 273  <--provisional count

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,688 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 111,630 on 6/27/2022. Between June 8 and June 20, the 7-day case numbers showed what was then a promising slow decline. Since then, there's been a slow rise back to near the spring surge highs. The overall effect of looking at the curve over the past 8 weeks has been an apparent ceiling that the case numbers are not breaking through -- instead, the 7-day averages fluctuate between ~100,000 and ~113,000.

DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. That number jogged up to 353 the following day, breaking the streak. 7-day average deaths hit a new spring-surge peak on 6/7/2022 (368). The number was provisionally 319 on 6/27/2022. For a while in mid-June, 7-day average deaths were showing a slow decline -- down to 288 by Wed 6/22/2022. As noted last week, though: it's been a struggle for the 7-day death numbers to get below 300 and stay there. 7-day average deaths were back up to 336 by Tue, 6/28 (with more cases to be added by next week). 

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021

 

[Doug B]

COVID ICU numbers continue to rise steadily. 7-day case counts have been steady enough for long enough to determine that now, both hospitalization rates and ICU rates are rising. IMHO, it's still in the realm of "small numbers increasing", not "ICUs nationwide are going to be overrun yet again" -- but these rates are still worth keeping an eye on.

 

[BobbyLayne]

BA.5 is the dominant strain now. Less deadly bit more resistant to the vaccines. 

NYC Prepares to Shut Down more Testing Sites as Cases Rise

Between February and April, the city shut down roughly half the testing sites (120) without any announcement per Gothamist.

 

[Doug B]

YLE's COVID State of Affairs: July 7

• For the US: It’s not clear whether BA.5 will result in a wave in the U.S. given our BA.2.12.1 history that other countries did not experience. If we do get a BA.5 wave, it would start about now, so all eyes are on epidemiological trends. The U.S. holds a steady state of ~100,000 reported cases per day. This equates to about 1M “true” cases per day, using back of the napkin math. (At the height of the first Omicron wave, we experienced ~3.9M true cases per day). The steady state is reflected in national wastewater with plateauing trends across every region.
  
• Silver lining: hospitalizations and deaths do remain below any previous peaks
  

Right on and right on. Would like to see the hospitalizations stabilize, but it's still pretty far from the "Oh schmidt!" stage.

 

[AAABatteries]

My FIL works for Cobb County in Atlanta suburbs - they must have hit a cases threshold  because they just starting requiring masks again for employees.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

What motivates a person to write a crap article like that?  Financial gain?  Doomsday fetish?  Seeking attention?  Seeking to corrode faith in institutions?  I would think it would make for a joyless evening's scribble.

I speculated on this phenomenon in a different thread, but I suspect what happens is that you start off being (appropriately) concerned about a once-in-a-century pandemic, but after awhile the whole Cassandra routine becomes such a part of your identity that you can't let it go and you just continue doubling down. I also think that events like the pandemic expanded our horizon of "worst case scenarios" and put them front of mind. It's not unlike the people after 9/11 who went beyond "If you see something, say something" and started imagining al-Qaeda sleeper cells around every corner.

I've never heard of the writer and I don't know anything about him beyond the bio at the end of the article, but I doubt he's being cynical. I think he's stuck in a doom loop where not only is the news unrelentingly bad, but anyone who attempts to minimize it should immediately be rendered suspect.

All that said, even many of the critiques I've read of the article acknowledge that it's not entirely wrong. There is still a lot about Covid that we don't know. We may see increasing vaccine escapability as new variants continue to arrive. There are lots of things public health officials could be doing right now to mitigate the ongoing effects of the pandemic and prepare for future eventualities. The problem is that he takes every little bit of potential bad news all the way to 11, and the overall effect is to provide readers with a skewed view of the current situation and what's likely to happen over the short- and medium-term.

 

[Sleestak]

This garbage is so dangerous.

Gravy for the brain, eh?

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

My FIL works for Cobb County in Atlanta suburbs - they must have hit a cases threshold  because they just starting requiring masks again for employees.

seeing a few other places starting to recommend masks again as well

CDC Community Transmission map (you may need to click the dropdown and change it to Community Transmission from Community Level) - ~95% of US counties are in the high or substantial risk category for exposure (based on recent case rate and recent test positivity... and we know this is a best case scenario bc of underreporting of testing)

For "Community Levels" map on the same dashboard, here's a blurb explaining that:

The Community Levels map (shown below) can be thought of as the risk that you would have a hard time accessing a hospital bed if you needed one. This is based on recent case rate, COVID-19 patient census and new COVID-19 hospital admissions. If you’re in the high (orange) category, the CDC has suggested that individuals resume masking or other efforts at disease control. You may notice that 19.5% of US counties (including some that have high population density) fall into this category. The number of counties that are in this category is also growing each week.

Here locally (statewide and my parish), hospitalizations have doubled in the last 4 weeks. I have a color coded scale on my hospitalization numbers since the pandemic began, (Green=good<-->Red=bad). We've been green for weeks and weeks now after the last surge subsided at the first of the year. Last week it started turning back towards red for the first time since then. Currently the highest number we've seen since the mid/end of February as the last big surge eased up. I expect another bump upwards as 4th of July results start rolling in. Hoping for a plateau after that. 

And something I had thought "out loud" to myself as I was reading a few things was "why are we worrying about cases at this point?" and then I read this, which reminded me why:

 If you want to drive down COVID-19 hospital admissions, you need to drive down infection in the first place. The idea of “don’t worry about cases” sort of shifts the burden to healthcare workers to manage an ever-growing patient census, so that life can continue as “normal” outside the hospital walls. Relying on hospital admissions going down when the virus runs out of people to infect means sacrificing a lot of your people in the form of their lives, semi- to long term disability (Long COVID), or missing time from work and daily life because one is out sick. Instead, we’re expected to manage the biggest group project ever as a collection of uncoordinated individuals.

 

[Capella]

Day 15

does a faint line mean anything? This is by far the lightest it’s been. 

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Day 15

does a faint line mean anything? This is by far the lightest it’s been. 

Viral load is dropping.  Sounds like in a day or two you will be good to go. 

 

[culdeus]

I still have mild GI issues and mild upper respiratory issues, 5% of what it was this time last week but not fading.  Tested again today, nothing.  5 tests over 6 days (one a pcr) all negative.  Nobody in my household has had symptoms, but my kids were sick for like 24hrs prior to me getting it.  They tested negative a few times then and since. (Thanks government for all the testes)

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

seeing a few other places starting to recommend masks again as well

CDC Community Transmission map (you may need to click the dropdown and change it to Community Transmission from Community Level) - ~95% of US counties are in the high or substantial risk category for exposure (based on recent case rate and recent test positivity... and we know this is a best case scenario bc of underreporting of testing)

For "Community Levels" map on the same dashboard, here's a blurb explaining that:

The Community Levels map (shown below) can be thought of as the risk that you would have a hard time accessing a hospital bed if you needed one. This is based on recent case rate, COVID-19 patient census and new COVID-19 hospital admissions. If you’re in the high (orange) category, the CDC has suggested that individuals resume masking or other efforts at disease control. You may notice that 19.5% of US counties (including some that have high population density) fall into this category. The number of counties that are in this category is also growing each week.

Here locally (statewide and my parish), hospitalizations have doubled in the last 4 weeks. I have a color coded scale on my hospitalization numbers since the pandemic began, (Green=good<-->Red=bad). We've been green for weeks and weeks now after the last surge subsided at the first of the year. Last week it started turning back towards red for the first time since then. Currently the highest number we've seen since the mid/end of February as the last big surge eased up. I expect another bump upwards as 4th of July results start rolling in. Hoping for a plateau after that. 

And something I had thought "out loud" to myself as I was reading a few things was "why are we worrying about cases at this point?" and then I read this, which reminded me why:

 If you want to drive down COVID-19 hospital admissions, you need to drive down infection in the first place. The idea of “don’t worry about cases” sort of shifts the burden to healthcare workers to manage an ever-growing patient census, so that life can continue as “normal” outside the hospital walls. Relying on hospital admissions going down when the virus runs out of people to infect means sacrificing a lot of your people in the form of their lives, semi- to long term disability (Long COVID), or missing time from work and daily life because one is out sick. Instead, we’re expected to manage the biggest group project ever as a collection of uncoordinated individuals.

The whole damn country is in the red.  But it is over.

What happened to the summer lull???

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

The whole damn country is in the red.  But it is over.

What happened to the summer lull???

For whatever reasons, this has been typical since the pandemic started. Late spring through early/mid June things are relatively calm, then around the 4th of July a surge begins. We are 3 out of 3 years with that happening now. 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Got my Covid antibody test results back (my doctor had ordered it in the aftermath of my pulmonary embolism, mostly as a way to rule out a past Covid infection as a cause of my blood clots). I don't totally understand it, but there were two tests, one labeled "Nucleocapsid" (IgG) and the other labeled "Spike" (IgM). Both were negative. For those who are curious, I've included the full explanation included in the results below.

To be honest, I was kind of hoping it would show I had a past infection, since that would have lowered the odds of me being on blood thinners for the rest of my life. On the bright side, I can still walk around humming this tune.

Anyway, here's the explanation:

These tests are intended for use as an aid in identifying individuals with an adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2, indicating recent or prior infection. Results are for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies. IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are generally detectable in blood several days after initial infection, with IgG antibodies typically reaching detectable levels a few days later. The duration of time antibodies are present post-infection is not well characterized. At this time, it is unknown how long IgG and IgM antibodies persist following infection, or if the presence of antibodies confers protective immunity. Individuals may have detectable virus present for several weeks following seroconversion. Negative results for antibodies do not preclude acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. These tests should not be used to diagnose acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. If acute infection is suspected, direct testing for SARS-CoV-2 is necessary. False positive results for the tests may occur due to cross-reactivity from pre-existing antibodies or other possible causes. The sensitivity of the tests early after infection is unknown.

IgM Result   IgG Result      Interpretation

Negative       Negative        Antibodies not detected. Does not preclude acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Negative       Positive         Suggests past exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Positive         Negative       Suggests recent exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Positive         Positive        Suggests recent exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

For whatever reasons, this has been typical since the pandemic started. Late spring through early/mid June things are relatively calm, then around the 4th of July a surge begins. We are 3 out of 3 years with that happening now. 

I know that each of the past two years, there's been a summer surge across the Sun Belt, and one theory put forward is that, in that region, summer means more people spending time indoors to escape the heat. But that wouldn't explain a nationwide spike.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I know that each of the past two years, there's been a summer surge across the Sun Belt, and one theory put forward is that, in that region, summer means more people spending time indoors to escape the heat. But that wouldn't explain a nationwide spike.

fair point, but it seems to be somewhat of a nationwide trend (with the South definitely being the frontrunner in that race   ) as well: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

 

[Capella]

Viral load is dropping.  Sounds like in a day or two you will be good to go. 

You were correct. Negative!

Gonna go see a couple of movies this weekend now. 

 

[Sleestak]

fair point, but it seems to be somewhat of a nationwide trend (with the South definitely being the frontrunner in that race   ) as well: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

I think the Northeast has been leading the sunbelt again.  MoCo Maryland had its 2nd Omicron spike in May.  Cases dropped very rapidly in the 1st half of June.  Then there was a 2 week plateau, and now the cases have begun dropping like a stone again.

https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

The plateau during the 2nd half of June was interesting.  Is that the BA5 variant moving through?  Or BA4?

 

[AAABatteries]

You were correct. Negative!

Gonna go see a couple of movies this weekend now. 

Don't forget to lick some handrails!

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I think the Northeast has been leading the sunbelt again.  MoCo Maryland had its 2nd Omicron spike in May.  Cases dropped very rapidly in the 1st half of June.  Then there was a 2 week plateau, and now the cases have begun dropping like a stone again.  https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

The plateau during the 2nd half of June was interesting.  It that the BA5 variant moving through?  Or BA4?

Could be BA5 (the plateau) after BA4 ran through. Maybe there was enough immunity wall after BA4. Just spitballing. Sure would be nice if there was better sequencing to answer these questions. 

 

[Capella]

Don't forget to lick some handrails!

How do you think I caught it 

 

[culdeus]

For whatever reasons, this has been typical since the pandemic started. Late spring through early/mid June things are relatively calm, then around the 4th of July a surge begins. We are 3 out of 3 years with that happening now. 

Theory I like for this is kids in school form more or less a bubble.   Then summer comes and the bubble pops and all hell breaks loose.  

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

YLE: Epidemiology of reinfections

Mostly good news on her analysis of reinfections.   A few nuggets:

Population patterns show severe disease getting more and more rare with each subsequent wave. Disease is milder for Omicron than Delta, but not enough to explain this pattern. Our immunity wall is building up, causing welcoming patterns, like decreases in deaths in South Africa shown in the graph below.

...

We see lower severity of disease with reinfections. Before Delta, a study in Qatar found reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Another study in the U.K. found reinfections were associated with a 61% lower risk of death than primary infections. Those who were vaccinated had lower risk of severe reinfection compared to those who were unvaccinated. In 2021, the U.K. found that viral load was significantly reduced after reinfections compared to primary infections, and thus protects against severe disease.

...

What about long COVID after reinfection?

We desperately need more research on long COVID, and we need to sufficiently recognize it as a risk of infection. I couldn’t find much on the risk of long COVID due to reinfections. We can hypothesize lower risk given lower viral load, but this is an educated guess and we don’t know how long COVID occurs or how to treat it.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

YLE: Epidemiology of reinfections

What about long COVID after reinfection?

We desperately need more research on long COVID, and we need to sufficiently recognize it as a risk of infection. I couldn’t find much on the risk of long COVID due to reinfections. We can hypothesize lower risk given lower viral load, but this is an educated guess and we don’t know how long COVID occurs or how to treat it.

We really need more research on this, and a real definition of what Long COVID is.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Theory I like for this is kids in school form more or less a bubble.   Then summer comes and the bubble pops and all hell breaks loose.  

Could be, although I remember hearing once that winter vacation has long been a key factor in mitigating the effects of flu season; that's two weeks at the height of the season where kids aren't spreading it around to each other. Which would seem to suggest the opposite of your theory. Then again, we already know Covid is different when it comes to younger people.

 

[Willie Neslon]

I'm invited to a poker game tonight and really on the fence. Never had covid, fully vaxed and first booster was a month and half ago. If I got covid now I'd be pissed, then again would be fun to play and see some people. All this recent talk about how it can affect your organs for years to come has had me tapping the brakes a little on get togethers. Am I being ridiculous?

 

[shader]

fair point, but it seems to be somewhat of a nationwide trend (with the South definitely being the frontrunner in that race   ) as well: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Does it really matter who the front runner is? This is the flu now.  We don’t have to judge states and regions anymore.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I'm invited to a poker game tonight and really on the fence. Never had covid, fully vaxed and first booster was a month and half ago. If I got covid now I'd be pissed, then again would be fun to play and see some people. All this recent talk about how it can affect your organs for years to come has had me tapping the brakes a little on get togethers. Am I being ridiculous?

The odds are pretty good that, even if you got it, you wouldn't get any major consequences (I'm assuming you're not super high-risk if you only got your booster 6 weeks ago). But if it's going to affect your ability to enjoy the evening, well, that's a decision only you can make.

One other consideration: Like you, I've never had it, and by now it's almost a point of pride. But the likelihood is that both of us will get it eventually, so the real criterion is how inconvenient would it be if you got it right now? Like if you have a vacation or a wedding coming up in the next couple weeks. If not, there's a strong argument that you should live your life because if you got it now, it would reduce the odds that you'd get it at a less convenient time.

But ultimately, this isn't a numbers or a probabilities thing. It comes down to what you feel comfortable with.

 

[shader]

I'm invited to a poker game tonight and really on the fence. Never had covid, fully vaxed and first booster was a month and half ago. If I got covid now I'd be pissed, then again would be fun to play and see some people. All this recent talk about how it can affect your organs for years to come has had me tapping the brakes a little on get togethers. Am I being ridiculous?

This is the kind of advice I always hate to give because who knows what can happen. I don’t know your age, comorbidities, etc.  But why are you getting vaccines and boosters if you won’t go socialize?

Do the math for your age group on hospitalizations and deaths. And who knows about organs. I’ve yet to see anything compelling from anyone.  

 

[shader]

The odds are pretty good that, even if you got it, you wouldn't get any major consequences (I'm assuming you're not super high-risk if you only got your booster 6 weeks ago). But if it's going to affect your ability to enjoy the evening, well, that's a decision only you can make.

One other consideration: Like you, I've never had it, and by now it's almost a point of pride. But the likelihood is that both of us will get it eventually, so the real criterion is how inconvenient would it be if you got it right now? Like if you have a vacation or a wedding coming up in the next couple weeks. If not, there's a strong argument that you should live your life because if you got it now, it would reduce the odds that you'd get it at a less convenient time.

But ultimately, this isn't a numbers or a probabilities thing. It comes down to what you feel comfortable with.

The pride thing makes sense.  But at the same time, those of us that didn’t get covid before vaccines and boosters were available were safe and didn’t have to face the full fury if the disease. That’s the positive.  Now we have vaccines and a much less dangerous variant. It’s  probably ok if we get it now. That wasn’t the case 18 months ago

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Does it really matter who the front runner is? This is the flu now.  We don’t have to judge states and regions anymore.

I never thought it made sense. I get that there's going to be some level of benchmarking, and maybe there are some trends that are helpful to track (like the aforementioned summer spikes in the Sun Belt), but the thing where NY had X,000 deaths and Florida had (X,000-1) so therefore FL "won" was always completely ridiculous. If I hear a stat like that, the only significance is that there are nearly 2X,000 dead Americans.

 

[Willie Neslon]

The odds are pretty good that, even if you got it, you wouldn't get any major consequences (I'm assuming you're not super high-risk if you only got your booster 6 weeks ago). But if it's going to affect your ability to enjoy the evening, well, that's a decision only you can make.

One other consideration: Like you, I've never had it, and by now it's almost a point of pride. But the likelihood is that both of us will get it eventually, so the real criterion is how inconvenient would it be if you got it right now? Like if you have a vacation or a wedding coming up in the next couple weeks. If not, there's a strong argument that you should live your life because if you got it now, it would reduce the odds that you'd get it at a less convenient time.

But ultimately, this isn't a numbers or a probabilities thing. It comes down to what you feel comfortable with.

I guess I'm not worried about short term effects, I'm worried about long term. I'm in pretty decent shape so I'm reasonably sure if I got it I'd be ok-ish but then again who knows.