I think it depends where and also people can definitely be in the hospitals for weeks before dying so there are definitely delta deaths happening. If you read the article I posted above from CA, Id say most deaths are probably still delta.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
skol asylum
Footballguy
Thanks. So symptoms are enough to test before 5 days. I need more kits so I don't worry about wasting them.
Doug B
Footballguy
I've heard this argument a few times, but the part I have yet to hear is what do they recommend instead? He says:
What does he mean "devote our resources"? Obviously we'd all be better off if the unvaccinated got their shots but if they haven't by now I doubt all the "resources" in the world are going to convince more than a few. It's not like the beginning of the pandemic where there was a supply issue, giving out boosters isn't keeping anyone from getting their initial shots.
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skol asylum
Footballguy
From the beginning i've always wondered what the factor was for real case counts. What do we think? Maybe 8-10 times higher? Less than that? More than that? Have their been studies to try get an estimate of unreported case numbers?
Probably not that high if we are 63 million reported cumulative in US. I wonder how many of those are repeat offenders?
Probably not that high if we are 63 million reported cumulative in US. I wonder how many of those are repeat offenders?
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skol asylum
Footballguy
We make them required to go to school to start with, like we do other vaccinations.
But I agree that we should do both boosters and increase the base numbers.
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Insoxicated
If you had to run across a 12 lane highway holding your child's hand, would you rather do it at rush hour or 4am... assuming all cars are travelling at 80mph?
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Our state claims it doesn't report reinfections. I'm not sure how they determine it or how accurate it could even be.
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Insoxicated
Apologies for engaging the trolls a bit the last few days. I'll try to get back to more signal and ignore he noise.
Ignore feature works fantastic BTW as long as folks don't quote the trolls.
That isn't happening anytime soon, but how does promoting boosters preclude them from mandating the vaccine for school if they choose? It isn't either/or.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
4am
What Im saying is lockdowns are the only thing equivalent to 4am in your analogy. All other mitigation factors are equivalent to rush hour with Omicron.
Hey another guy without kids lecturing people how to raise their kids
skol asylum
Footballguy
skol asylum
Footballguy
No, like we do for a myriad of other vaccines for more serious illnesses. It's not a new concept.
You're right, For children the flu is worse. For the BILLIONTH TIME
https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/09/fact-check-is-flu-harder-on-kids-than-covid-19/113718780/
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Insoxicated
Why do you continue to view this as binary? Black or White? On or Off? 100% or 0%
We've shown time and time and time again that is NOT the case and is horribly flawed mindset with this pandemic.
Do you think you're incapable of that sort of second level thinking or is this simply a wanton disregard for clearly and repeatedly presented logic?
I've never locked down. Hell I've traveled MORE since 2020 (including during Omicron). Neither my GF or I have had this. My buddy and his wife are in the same boat. I know many others in just my circle. I'm not naive enough to think my small sample size represents the big picture, but I'm smart enough to see that it shows that people CAN find a happy medium between "full lockdown" and being weak and throwing in the towel.
To me, people saying "I give up, we're doomed" are cowards. They're weak. They're using faulty logic to justify their stance because they're lazy. They can't be troubled to put forth a modicum of effort to move the needle to a safer place in the grey area that exists between black and white. Those people are a big problem right now.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
A lot of people feel this way, but it's hard to come to that conclusion when our hospitals are floundering. The likelihood children recover from whatever ill effects result from temporary fragmentation of daycare/schooling is far greater than 2000+ people a day rising from the dead. Moreover, there will be scores of survivors with permanent debility, plus long-term consequences to healthcare workers, if we continue to push them to the brink.
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Insoxicated
September 2020 article saying the flu is deadlier than the long-gone original strain of COVID for kids.... seems relevant now. Thanks for sharing
Ive never had it either and mitigated MUCH less than you I assure you.
We are the COVID "INVINCIBLES"
https://nypost.com/2022/01/13/these-invincibles-want-to-know-why-theyve-never-had-covid/
You're right since OMICRON is less severe than the original strain.September 2020 article saying the flu is deadlier than the long-gone original strain of COVID for kids.... seems relevant now. Thanks for sharing
ghostguy123
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Ahhhh... so Children's Hospitalization and deaths must be much lower now than they were when that article was written?
Good to know... never mind, you're right!
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
It used to be 3-5x more cases than formally diagnosed. But that was before omicron, with less testing. I suspect the former's contagion is the more important factor, and we're severalfold underreported now. 8-10X? Maybe more. Unless we do population sampling of antibody prevalence, we won't know definitively.
More than 50% of children going into the hospital are due to reasons OTHER than covid but happen to test for covid while in the hospital. The CDC and your Lord Commander have admitted this. But you know this already. Or maybe you don't.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
At this point, remaining unvaccinated is a conscious decision, one unlikely to change with more information/education. While I don't think we should give up on the hold-outs, the incremental effort of boosting people who've already shown willingness to get vaccinated will likely yield greater societal benefit IMO. Then again, there are a lot of people arbitrarily opting out of boosters, too.
I guess more resources could be devoted to worldwide vaccine distribution, and ramping up the production of therapeutics?
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Thanks for posting this -- I missed it, which is kind of surprising because my TL is littered with people who have been arguing for this change for months.
From a data collection / research standpoint, obviously we want to continue tracking case counts. But these aren't really that helpful for media purposes and do a lot more to whip up fear and panic than to inform. Good for the AP.
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Insoxicated
Lord this is a predictable response...
So you're telling me that wasn't the case back in September 2020? They were splitting "with COVID" vs "from COVID" data back then and they stopped?
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I'm inclined to agree. People who have already gotten two shots can probably be talked into getting a third. People who currently have gotten zero shots -- after a year of brow-beating and watching people die around them -- are probably not going to sign up for a three-shot regimen just because we asked again for the millionth time.
culdeus
Footballguy
That might not be true. While this is preprint there is evidence coming out that Omi is more severe than Alpha, though it is probably equally severe at least.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.12.22269148v1
A lot of the studies now are pointing to Omi being as severe as alpha, but orders of magnitude more contagious. It's just there is a lot of natural and vaccine immunity out there in the wild now to help manage it.
Omicron is MUCH more contagious than prior variants so yes, the % then was MUCH different.Lord this is a predictable response...
So you're telling me that wasn't the case back in September 2020? They were splitting "with COVID" vs "from COVID" data back then and they stopped?
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Insoxicated
You sound confident. I'll hold for you to provide a Source to the ratio back then .
Meeting a friend for tacos and margaritas… I'll check back in a couple hours.
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I guess it depends on where you are pulling that number from, but generally I don't think that number is correct. Here are some numbers directly from YLE's post from this AM (now about 3 or 4 pages back in this thread, y'all are chatty today lol):
Hospitalizations
Numerator: Pediatric hospitalizations are also increasing. And they are increasing fast. In the figure below, hospitalizations among children aged 0-17 year increased to numbers never seen before, a daily rate of 1.13 new admissions per 100,000 children.
Denominator: When we compare this to other age groups, the number of admissions among 0-17 year-olds continues to be the lowest compared to any other age group. Every age group is increasing in hospital admissions right now.
Given our suboptimal surveillance system, we really only have rate of hospitalization for COVID19 on a national level. For more granular data we rely on specific jurisdictions. For example, the New York State Department of Health provided a lot of important context into these hospitalizations over the weekend:
- Admissions are increasing for children aged 0-11 years. Admissions have increased 48-72% among unvaccinated children aged 0-11 years in the Omicron wave compared to the Delta wave. This isn’t the case for unvaccinated children aged 12-17. This could be a sign that Omicron is not milder among the youngest of children.
- “For” or “with” COVID19. There has been a lot of public interest in whether children (and adults) are hospitalized “for COVID19” or “with COVID.” While this doesn’t matter for some questions (like, hospital capacity or hospital acquired infection among vulnerable and staff), it’s important for other questions (like, severity of Omicron among kids). In the state of New York, 59% of kids admitted who have COVID 19 are hospitalized for COVID19. Without historic data, it’s hard to know what this means. But it certainly does not mean dismiss the other 41% (hospitalizations “with COVID19”). Clinicians on the ground are describing a third category: “COVID19 exacerbating medical conditions.” For example, if a child has diabetes, COVID19 infection significantly complicates the disease and the child is hospitalized. This is very different than a child with a broken bone that happens to test positive. This third category isn’t displayed widely and cannot be ignored.
- Underlying conditions. In New York State, 53-63% of children hospitalized with/for COVID19 did not have underlying health conditions. This is consistent with previous reports from the CDC. Severe COVID19 disease among children can be random.
Try harder. Please.Apologies for engaging the trolls a bit the last few days. I'll try to get back to more signal and ignore he noise.
Ignore feature works fantastic BTW as long as folks don't quote the trolls.
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Insoxicated
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NYC was 50/50 WITH COVID.
Also, 1.13 new admissions per 100,000 children, compare that to the flu hospitalization rate of 39/100,000.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127795/influenza-us-hospitalization-rate-by-age-group/
But I've posted all this stuff before. People just ignore it.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Delta is still here in Florida, yes. Can't answer your last question at least in this state. They don't track that kind of thing.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
@jobarules
Which is worse?
100% of a population getting a disease and 10% of them dying?
Or 10% of a population getting a disease and 50% of them dying?
Which is worse?
100% of a population getting a disease and 10% of them dying?
Or 10% of a population getting a disease and 50% of them dying?
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
you are forgetting the other 138.1 that you need to lump in with the 39. Her numbers are 0-17yo. Your chard is 0-4 and 5-17.
Also is your chart a daily rate? (her number is) I tried to click details to see if it discloses that but I don't have access.
Adding the 138 makes the flu rates even higher though. I was giving the benefit of the doubt to try and help your argument.
Even if you extrapolate the worst ever daily rate over 2 months (not realistic but let's go with it) the rate would still be lower than the combined 0-4 and 5-17 flu hospitalization rates.
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Doug B
Footballguy
YLE was using a daily rate. Statista was using an overall count over the course of the 2019-20 flu season. They didn't define flu season, but it had to be in the neighborhood of 4-6 months.
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