at all y'all for trying to create something that isn't there.I was genuinely asking the second and third question.
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***Official*** DeAngelo Williams Bandwagon (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jeff Pasquino
- Start date
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Marc,Your statement was correct, without being definitive. Foster is LIKELY to start - neither a guarantee nor a fact. Further, if you read the story, it goes on to give a recommendation:
This isn't necessarily bad news for Williams owners, as even if Foster is a no-go, they'd still mix his carries with another back such as Goings.Considering the Panthers give their RBs 30-45 touches a game, this doesn't change my opinion at all for Williams. 15-20 touches is the downside for Williams on MNF against a bad rushing defense in Philly.
My response put your story in context - it isn't necessarily bad news for DAWilliams' expectations at all. If Foster gets 15 touches and is the "starter", there's still 20 for Williams to get. If Foster doesn't go, even better for Williams owners. In fact, it might even be BETTER for Foster to be playing, as he won't be as effective at less than 100%, leaving Williams as the most productive back for Carolina.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FYI Carolina Panthers Rbs as a whole are averaging 27.8 total touches/game in 2006.
Although I am willing to bet the over on this average against a Eagles defense that is very good against the pass but poor against the run.
Although I am willing to bet the over on this average against a Eagles defense that is very good against the pass but poor against the run.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Since the bye (Week 9) and the return of Williams:Week 10 - 31 (Foster 15, Williams 8, Shelton 8)
Week 11 - 45 (Foster 9, Williams 22, Goings 6, Hoover 8)
Week 12 - 32 (Foster 0 (out), Williams 20, Hoover 6, Goings 4, Shelton 2)
Average - 36
link
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
HTH
Good question.However, the Eagles are baaaaaaaaad against the run. They made Travis Henry look like a BEAST a couple weeks ago and Addai look like Tomlinson last week. I'm thinking about going with with DeAngelo, even if he only gets 12 or 15 touches.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Doesn't wash Jeff. Carolina RBs are averaging ~ 30 touches total per game, and Goings and Hoover get 5 of those, minimum. That leaves 25 total touches for Williams and Foster to split, the coaches suggesting Deshaun getting 15 means DeAngelo is is looking at half the touches you're expecting. 15-20 touches is the upper upside for DeAngelo tomorrow night, provided Foster doesn't have a setback and gets the 15 touches he's supposed to get. Obviously you're a Williams owner; the mental gymnastics necessary to support the position that this is actually good news for Williams' owners is quite impressive.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Start with Post 204 and get back to me.....Doesn't wash Jeff. Carolina RBs are averaging ~ 30 touches total per game, and Goings and Hoover get 5 of those, minimum. That leaves 25 total touches for Williams and Foster to split, the coaches suggesting Deshaun getting 15 means DeAngelo is is looking at half the touches you're expecting. 15-20 touches is the upper upside for DeAngelo tomorrow night, provided Foster doesn't have a setback and gets the 15 touches he's supposed to get. Obviously you're a Williams owner; the mental gymnastics necessary to support the position that this is actually good news for Williams' owners is quite impressive.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Weeks 10 and 12 don't support your case, only week 11 suggests anything near the split you're suggesting, and it's far and away the most touches Carolina has given it's backs this season. 45 sticks out like a sore thumb, it's obviously an outlier.Even in these three examples, there are significant percentages going to 3rd backs. The top two backs split 23, 31, and 26 touches those weeks, nowhere near the 35-40 you're suggesting.
I'd argue that the 23 and 26 are more indicative of what we've consistantly seen from Carolina this season, and Deshaun getting 15 of those means Williams is in line for 8-10 touches tomorrow night.
If I had a gun to my head I'd guess 9 total touches for DeAngelo.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I think the return of Williams and the uptick in RB touches is not an unrelated event, but the amount of touches by the "other backs" is alarming.
12-16 touches by RBs not named Williams or Foster is an insane number.
12-16 touches by RBs not named Williams or Foster is an insane number.
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Berserker
Footballguy
With both Foster and Williams healthy, that trend (anomaly?) can't continue.The 'RBs not named Williams or Foster' combined for only 18 touches prior to week 10.Against the Eagles, expecting a final score of 24-14, there should be at least 35 RB touches, probably more with a nice 4th quarter lead. I'd expect both Foster and Williams to get 15-18 touches, with another 5-7 going to the 'others'. I also think if the Panthers have a comfortable lead, Foster wouldn't see the field much in the 4th (don't want to risk aggravating the injury). So, the balance would shift more toward Williams at about a 20/12 advantage.I have both and I'm starting DeAngelo.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
It will be interesting to see how this pans out. I still think that Williams owners are being quite optimistic when you look at the overall numbers. When both Williams and Foster are healthy, they've both had double digit touches in the same game only once this year (13 carries and a catch early in the season IIRC).The "Foster returning is actually good news for Williams owners" school of thought is mind boggling.Berserker said:
Berserker
Footballguy
I'm not sure who said that. I don't think any Williams owners think Foster returning is good news....but it's not as bad as some are saying. I still wish Foster would just go away.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
ESPNews reports Carolina Panthers RB DeShaun Foster (elbow) will not play in the team's Week 13 game, and that Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is expected to start the team's Week 13 game and receive the bulk of the carries.
VROOM VROOM.
VROOM VROOM.
the spanker
Footballguy
So does this suggest Foster's injury is more serious than what's been reported?
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Scoreboard
eAngelo Williams 17-74 rushing, 7-101-1 receiving (first RB in Carolina Panther history with 100 yards rec)FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I was looking for that - he's definitely improved enough that "Foster's a better blocker" may not be a good argument.DeAngelo's already insured that Foster's gone this offseason - and I think he did enough tonight to send Foster to the bench for the rest of this year.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
tommygunz - are you still trying to convince Jeff of something based on events that did not happen?I'd say continue this discussion later in the week if Foster practices with the first team. For now, I think Jeff nailed it.Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
Fair enough. 
Jeff didn't nail it. DW should have been less productive without Foster avialable tonite per his earlier statement.tommygunz - are you still trying to convince Jeff of something based on events that did not happen?I'd say continue this discussion later in the week if Foster practices with the first team. For now, I think Jeff nailed it.Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Apparently, Jeff and I were arguing different things. I disagreed with Jeff's idea that DeAngelo would get 15-20 touches if Foster started and got the 15 touches that were projected. I thought Jeff was arguing that even if Foster got his 15 touches, there were enough touches to go around for DeAngelo to get 15-20 touches, hence the posts about Carolina RB total touches, etc.When Foster was declared inactive, my argument was moot. Although if you look at the splits, there were 31 total touches by Carolina RBs, 24 went to RB1, 4 to RB2, 2 to RB3, and 1 to RB4.tommygunz - are you still trying to convince Jeff of something based on events that did not happen?I'd say continue this discussion later in the week if Foster practices with the first team. For now, I think Jeff nailed it.Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Exactly. Obviously not a big deal, and I'm glad Jeff was able to reap the rewards of his Williams start, but it was his argument that Foster's availability would benefit Williams that initially drew me into this debate.Jeff didn't nail it. DW should have been less productive without Foster avialable tonite per his earlier statement.tommygunz - are you still trying to convince Jeff of something based on events that did not happen?I'd say continue this discussion later in the week if Foster practices with the first team. For now, I think Jeff nailed it.Huge night for DeAngelo - kudos to those who started him and reaped the rewards. I've never argued that Williams isn't productive; my beef was with your idea that Williams was going to get 15-20 touches if Foster got the 15 touches he was being promised in the news.After looking at the splits, surely you admit that idea was erroneous.Scoreboard
FBG Scoring - 23.5 points. PPR, 30.5.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I guess that is one way to look at it - you might be using a logical fallacy, however. Jeff may argue that DeAngelo could have been even MORE productive if Foster was available.Foster wasn't available, so there's no way to prove the truth or falsehood of that part of Jeff's argument.
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tommyGunZ
Footballguy
That's exactly what Jeff would have to argue to be consistant with his posts in this thread. And that's what I completely disagreed with.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
True - however, what does Jeff say if Foster comes back next week and touches the ball 8-10 times, yet DeAngelo goes off for 150 combined and 2 TDs? We are in what if games on that debate, so there can be no "winner" right now on that issue.I think it is indisputable, OTOH, that Jeff correctly predicted DeAngelo would have big #s tonight.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I will give credit where credit is due - though I disagree with some of the "Foster's return doesn't hurt DeAngelo" logic, Jeff firmly predicted big numbers from DeAngelo tonight and it happened.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Props back at you for being stand up about it. We all benefit overall as a result in the Shark Pool with solid debates. I don't always stick my neck out, but when I do I'd like to think I have a good average.You were probably right that in this particular game a healthy Foster would certainly have been a detriment to his overall production, but you can't deny that this was DAWill's coming out party. My argument was that I had originally thought DAWill wouldn't be the true feature back without Foster either, so it didn't matter. Fortunately Williams produced early and didn't let up, and HC Fox rode the hot hand.The argument as to why it would have possibly been better with Foster there as the "other" back would be to show everyone the stark difference between the two (and that Foster shouldn't be the starter any longer). I think that still was displayed vs. Philly, and Foster's going to be trying to suit up in a different uni next year.I will give credit where credit is due - though I disagree with some of the "Foster's return doesn't hurt DeAngelo" logic, Jeff firmly predicted big numbers from DeAngelo tonight and it happened.
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tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Reason #1 why this is the best fantasy football site on the web - IMO.
Ditto that, My Levin RB duo of doom has me off to a good start in the consolation tourney of my local league and netted me the weekly high score.Reason #1 why this is the best fantasy football site on the web - IMO.
Knight who says Ni
Footballguy
So what are the prospects like for Williams next year - does anyone know what the word in the organizartion is on whom they prefer? Do they like this kid, do they want to give him some time to develop, are they looking to cut ties with Foster? Inquiring Williams Keeper owners want to know!
Ni
Ni
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Carolina Panthers have never had a feature Rb of DeAngelo Williams caliber before. Tim Biakabatuka might have been one if he could have stayed healthy but even he was not the talent that I see in Williams.
DeAngelo does not have a hole in his game. He is strong between the tackles and has speed to burn to the outisde combined with exceptional agility and vision. As we saw last night he is an exceptional reciever also and a 2 way threat. I think he is the next Tiki Barber.
It remains to be seen what the Panthers will do in short yardage situations so I see that as the last hurdle for Williams to clear in becoming the total package. As I have said before I think he will become the Panthers Rb of choice in those situations as well but we don't have solid proof about that question yet. He has puched it in from the goal line earlier this year however. In week 2 vs. the Vikings from 3 yards out he scored. The same Vikings that are arguably the best run defense in the league and certainly difficult to run against in short yardage with the best DT combo in the league of fat Pat and Kevin Williams.
I am sure that some will speculate that Shelton or some other back will compete will DeAngelo for short yardage carries but I don't think its going to happen. And Williams has a shot to be a #1 Rb in 2007.
DeShaun Foster
DeAngelo does not have a hole in his game. He is strong between the tackles and has speed to burn to the outisde combined with exceptional agility and vision. As we saw last night he is an exceptional reciever also and a 2 way threat. I think he is the next Tiki Barber.
It remains to be seen what the Panthers will do in short yardage situations so I see that as the last hurdle for Williams to clear in becoming the total package. As I have said before I think he will become the Panthers Rb of choice in those situations as well but we don't have solid proof about that question yet. He has puched it in from the goal line earlier this year however. In week 2 vs. the Vikings from 3 yards out he scored. The same Vikings that are arguably the best run defense in the league and certainly difficult to run against in short yardage with the best DT combo in the league of fat Pat and Kevin Williams.
I am sure that some will speculate that Shelton or some other back will compete will DeAngelo for short yardage carries but I don't think its going to happen. And Williams has a shot to be a #1 Rb in 2007.
DeShaun Foster
Knight who says Ni
Footballguy
This was my assessment as well, but I recognize that I have some bias as an owner. I was really impressed with his receiving ability and I agree, he looks to be a complete package. Thanks for the info!Ni
BigJim®
Footballguy
Yeah, I noticed Shelton was in a bunch of plays in the redzone but:(1) I believe most Shelton appearances were after D.Williams made a big run/catch so he may have been catching his breathBiabreakable said:
2) Shelton only got one or two carries in that role, so it may be that they planned to throw and used a bigger back to pass protect rather than putting him in as a true goal-line RB option3) Shelton did not score in the carries he received, which probably bodes well for Williams.
Warpig
Footballguy
As much as it pains me to say...I think Foster is useless from this point on. I have him in a 32 team dynasty and have been pairing him with Jamal Lewis. But I may have to demote him to the bench in favor of a 3rd WR. I have a feeling Foster will only get the "dirty touches" from here on out. First and second downs maybe between the 20's. He won't be getting you very many points (not that he has anyway). But I think this alleged injury was the nail in the coffin. 
