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Official Donald Trump for President thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
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timschochet
Footballguy
Trump Jr is just getting killed for the Skittles comment. Which is justified. As embarrassing, stupid, and shameful as his father's worst remarks.
The Republican Party is never going to live this down. And if this man somehow gets elected, the American public is never going to live it down either.
The Republican Party is never going to live this down. And if this man somehow gets elected, the American public is never going to live it down either.
Bucky86
Footballguy
Perspective is important when considering Skittles. This is from Alex Nowrasteh of the Cato Institute:
"The chance of being murdered in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil is one in 3.6 million a year. I compare that annual chance of dying in a terrorist attack to that of being murdered by a non-terrorist because victims in both situations are killed by people intending to commit murder—albeit it with different motives. The chance of being murdered in a regular homicide is one in fourteen thousand a year, which is 253 times as great as dying in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil."
"The chance of being murdered in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil is one in 3.6 million a year. I compare that annual chance of dying in a terrorist attack to that of being murdered by a non-terrorist because victims in both situations are killed by people intending to commit murder—albeit it with different motives. The chance of being murdered in a regular homicide is one in fourteen thousand a year, which is 253 times as great as dying in a terrorist attack committed by a foreigner on U.S. soil."
cstu
Footballguy
Of out candy analogies to use - skittles. That's a level of ignorance you expect to see in a local election, not in a Presidential one.
timschochet
Footballguy
Wait- didn't Trayvon Martin also have Skittles on him?
Wasn't the death of Trayvon Martin the start of the Black Lives Matter Movement?
And didn't MOP try to suggest earlier there might be a connection between ISIS and BLM?
Calling Mr. Ham!
Wasn't the death of Trayvon Martin the start of the Black Lives Matter Movement?
And didn't MOP try to suggest earlier there might be a connection between ISIS and BLM?
Calling Mr. Ham!
cstu
Footballguy
MOP suggested that Trump would look for a way to link ISIS and BLM and g-d damn it if he didn't find one.
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Gawain
Footballguy
I think that Kasich and HW Bush and other prominent Republicans breaking for Hillary exacerbates the problem (to them) of people supporting and voting for Trump.. They should be breaking for Johnson.
Trump's greatest appeal is that he's an outsider. He operates against the powers that be and just like his supporters, he's being held down by the Washington elite. Having Republicans support Hillary just further enhances this narrative. Anyone who isn't that informed or that put off by Trump hears all of these folks coming together, scared to lose power and influence, and reaches the conclusion that there's something to Trump that shakes Washington to the core. Most people have a negative perception of the "Washington Elite." Thus, anything that can scare them enough to support Hillary just may have something going for it.
Secondly, hearing that HW Bush or Kasich or McCain is voting for Hillary only pushes those on the left further away. As a Bernie supporter, I don't want to be associated with HW Bush policies. As an environmentalist I don't want to vote for someone that seems to have a ton of pro-fracking support. The center-right openly coming to Hillary pushes those on the left into Stein or stay home, or Johnson if weed's just that important.
Whereas a fair number of prominent Republicans endorsing Johnson would draw a lot of mainstream Republicans away from Trump. People who don't realize there's another choice, or pay attention to anything outside the two parties would realize there's another choice that's a lot easier to swallow than Trump and doesn't require folks to vote for someone they've disliked for 24 years.
Trump's greatest appeal is that he's an outsider. He operates against the powers that be and just like his supporters, he's being held down by the Washington elite. Having Republicans support Hillary just further enhances this narrative. Anyone who isn't that informed or that put off by Trump hears all of these folks coming together, scared to lose power and influence, and reaches the conclusion that there's something to Trump that shakes Washington to the core. Most people have a negative perception of the "Washington Elite." Thus, anything that can scare them enough to support Hillary just may have something going for it.
Secondly, hearing that HW Bush or Kasich or McCain is voting for Hillary only pushes those on the left further away. As a Bernie supporter, I don't want to be associated with HW Bush policies. As an environmentalist I don't want to vote for someone that seems to have a ton of pro-fracking support. The center-right openly coming to Hillary pushes those on the left into Stein or stay home, or Johnson if weed's just that important.
Whereas a fair number of prominent Republicans endorsing Johnson would draw a lot of mainstream Republicans away from Trump. People who don't realize there's another choice, or pay attention to anything outside the two parties would realize there's another choice that's a lot easier to swallow than Trump and doesn't require folks to vote for someone they've disliked for 24 years.
cstu
Footballguy
Getting Republicans on board is a huge win for Democrats. They are effectively endorsing the Democratic Platform (PDF) that Bernie helped create. I don't know how a person who truly supported Bernie can fail to vote for Hillary when he's practically begging you to do it for the good of the country.
It's hard to imagine an unpopular Republican candidate with no ground game running the table to the nom.
It may be possible though. Because for a bizzare reason pundits have been ignoring the Johnson/Stein effect.
You see polls with Johnson getting 10% and everyone ignores it. Those same people bring up Nader in Florida in 2000.
Third party contenders are going to hurt Clinton. May be the story of election.
It may be possible though. Because for a bizzare reason pundits have been ignoring the Johnson/Stein effect.
You see polls with Johnson getting 10% and everyone ignores it. Those same people bring up Nader in Florida in 2000.
Third party contenders are going to hurt Clinton. May be the story of election.
cstu
Footballguy
People are saying Johnson voters may turn the election. The election could hinge on these voters in Florida, believe me.
Seems like until the past 2 weeks everyone was ignoring this or assumed it would be even.
I think 80% of those Johnson votes would go to democrats normally.
cstu
Footballguy
His supporters:
- 22% Republican
- 11% Democrat
- 62% Independent
- Of which 28% lean Republican, 24% lean Democrat, and 14% are no lean
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Seth Meyers on the nutter birther conspiracy (adult language)
http://theweek.com/speedreads/649827/seth-meyers-calls-donald-trump-lying-racist-liar-over-long-birther-charade
http://theweek.com/speedreads/649827/seth-meyers-calls-donald-trump-lying-racist-liar-over-long-birther-charade
cstu
Footballguy
A large % of Trump supporters know this. But they enjoy the anguish of people like Seth Meyers.
They are older white people. Their dreams did not come true. They are miserable. No retirement. Inadequate healthcare. No dental. No vacation. They have given up.
They blame minorities, unions, immigration and women's lib for their plight.
They think voting for Trump hurts those people. That's all they want to do. The don't care about policy or the future. They have given up.
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SHIZNITTTT
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
apalmer
Footballguy
3C's
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
3C's
Footballguy
I'm confused by the flow of your post but it sounds like you're saying Trump supporters are older white people who are miserable and whose dreams did not come true (aka a large percentage of GOP voters). I'd say that's true.
3C's
Footballguy
Well hell, I guess now we kind of know what's in it. http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/20/health/fast-food-antibiotics-meat/index.html
3C's
Footballguy
Paulymaggs
Footballguy
Holy Sh.t
I just woke up with a nightmare that the Orange One could actually WIN this thing.
:X
I just woke up with a nightmare that the Orange One could actually WIN this thing.
:X
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I haven't vetted the math on this (and not a fear mongering-friendly point), but:
You're more likely to be killed by your own clothes than by an immigrant terrorist
The odds of being killed by a refugee terrorist? One in 3.6 billion.
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/13/12901950/terrorism-immigrants-clothes
* Seriously, somebody was on CNN a few months ago, may have been from Congress, and pointed out some of the parallels trying to be drawn with Europe are absurd, our EXISTING vetting is already far more rigorous. Also, that it takes 18-24 months on average to pass through the screening process. If a terrorist wanted to do damage, that is literally the last route they would take.
** Trump realizes on the religious test, terrorists aren't going to blurt out, I want to bomb the US - DAMN! They got me (if only I had kept it a secret). Right?
*** Fun with Skittles.
I've seen counts of 54-56 per 2 oz. bag, so lets call it a nice even 50.
To have three "killer skittles" at 3,600,000,000 to 1 odds, you would need approximately 10,000,000,000 skittles (or 200,000,000 bags). Reportedly 73 billion skittles are produced per year. So you would have to eat about 1/7th of that number to arrive at the magic three killer skittles. Surely you would die of skittle induced systemic and massive organ shut down and failure long before that.
There are only like freaking seven billion people on the PLANET. If the odds are indeed on the order of BILLIONS to one against, your odds are probably far more likely to die of a shark attack, lightning strike and direct hit by a meteorite while winning the Powerball - SIMULTANEOUSLY!
You're more likely to be killed by your own clothes than by an immigrant terrorist
The odds of being killed by a refugee terrorist? One in 3.6 billion.
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/13/12901950/terrorism-immigrants-clothes
* Seriously, somebody was on CNN a few months ago, may have been from Congress, and pointed out some of the parallels trying to be drawn with Europe are absurd, our EXISTING vetting is already far more rigorous. Also, that it takes 18-24 months on average to pass through the screening process. If a terrorist wanted to do damage, that is literally the last route they would take.
** Trump realizes on the religious test, terrorists aren't going to blurt out, I want to bomb the US - DAMN! They got me (if only I had kept it a secret). Right?
*** Fun with Skittles.
I've seen counts of 54-56 per 2 oz. bag, so lets call it a nice even 50.
To have three "killer skittles" at 3,600,000,000 to 1 odds, you would need approximately 10,000,000,000 skittles (or 200,000,000 bags). Reportedly 73 billion skittles are produced per year. So you would have to eat about 1/7th of that number to arrive at the magic three killer skittles. Surely you would die of skittle induced systemic and massive organ shut down and failure long before that.
There are only like freaking seven billion people on the PLANET. If the odds are indeed on the order of BILLIONS to one against, your odds are probably far more likely to die of a shark attack, lightning strike and direct hit by a meteorite while winning the Powerball - SIMULTANEOUSLY!
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Which of the 3 Skittles was Dylan Roof, Adam Lanza and James Holmes?
honky kong
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
3C's
Footballguy
Paulymaggs
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It's horrible and crazy. People need to think about what Trump said when asked when did he think America was last "Great." He said early 1900s, late 1890s, the robber baron age. This is corporatism, there is no line drawn between public and private. It is institutionalization of corruption because that's what corruption is. And it resembles Putinism IMO.
I'm surprised that Trump considering Peter Thiel for the USSC did not get more discussion here. All the talk about Christie as AG and Giuliani as head of DHS, etc., folks this is where the action is at.
3C's
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Based on the below latest polling/electoral data, Trump would need to come close to running the table of battleground states.
NPR Battleground Map: A Path To The Presidency Opens Up For Trump
http://www.npr.org/2016/09/20/494592817/npr-battleground-map-a-path-to-the-presidency-opens-up-for-trump
EXCERPTS - "Factoring in just the states leaning in either Clinton's or Trump's directions, the September NPR Battleground Map shows Clinton ahead 268-185 — with 85 electoral votes in the Tossup category, states that could go either way at this point.
This is the first time in NPR's Battleground Map, which has published every month since May, that Clinton has dropped below the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to be president with just the states leaning in her direction."
"Trump now has a mathematically plausible — albeit very narrow — path to winning the presidency.
As we noted, Trump is now ahead in the RealClearPolitics average in Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Maine's second congressional district (if even within the margin of error).
Still, even if all of those were to break in Trump's direction, that would only bring him to 251 electoral votes — 19 short.
That means he'd either need to flip one of the larger remaining states leaning toward Clinton or pick up the two remaining Tossups — North Carolina and New Hampshire.
If Trump were to get both of those, he would win — 270-268.
By the way, if you take away that one electoral vote in Maine, it's a tie, prolonging this contentious election. (For more on what would happen in the event of a tie, check out this explainer from the National Constitution Center.)
So is this the high-water mark for Trump, or does his tide continue to rise?
The debates are the last best chance for either candidate to change the trajectory of the race. And, right now, they could be key in determining who wins, because the election looks to be at an inflection point."
Donald Trump, the Unsinkable Candidate
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/world/americas/donald-trump-the-unsinkable-candidate.html
NPR Battleground Map: A Path To The Presidency Opens Up For Trump
http://www.npr.org/2016/09/20/494592817/npr-battleground-map-a-path-to-the-presidency-opens-up-for-trump
EXCERPTS - "Factoring in just the states leaning in either Clinton's or Trump's directions, the September NPR Battleground Map shows Clinton ahead 268-185 — with 85 electoral votes in the Tossup category, states that could go either way at this point.
This is the first time in NPR's Battleground Map, which has published every month since May, that Clinton has dropped below the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to be president with just the states leaning in her direction."
"Trump now has a mathematically plausible — albeit very narrow — path to winning the presidency.
As we noted, Trump is now ahead in the RealClearPolitics average in Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Maine's second congressional district (if even within the margin of error).
Still, even if all of those were to break in Trump's direction, that would only bring him to 251 electoral votes — 19 short.
That means he'd either need to flip one of the larger remaining states leaning toward Clinton or pick up the two remaining Tossups — North Carolina and New Hampshire.
If Trump were to get both of those, he would win — 270-268.
By the way, if you take away that one electoral vote in Maine, it's a tie, prolonging this contentious election. (For more on what would happen in the event of a tie, check out this explainer from the National Constitution Center.)
So is this the high-water mark for Trump, or does his tide continue to rise?
The debates are the last best chance for either candidate to change the trajectory of the race. And, right now, they could be key in determining who wins, because the election looks to be at an inflection point."
Donald Trump, the Unsinkable Candidate
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/world/americas/donald-trump-the-unsinkable-candidate.html
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Republicans (or whatever, Trumpites) who try to scare people about Hillary and supposed extremism on the USSC lost the right to speak when they nominated Trump.
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I know some very prosperous older white people that are voting for Trump and they most certainly have not given up or care about the future -- they just think differently.
They're voting Trump for two reasons: 1) They hate Hillary 2) They can't come to grips that they have lost nearly all of the social issues to left. They think the country has gone too far and want to return to the 1950s or at the very least stop the trend towards liberalism and there is no way that will happen with a Democrat or Libertarian in office. They grew up in a time when Mom stayed at home while Dad worked, only men fought wars, abortions were illegal, gays stayed in the closet, minorities knew their place and you weren't labeled a racist or bigot (even though many of them are).
They want things to return to the 1950s. They may be backward but they aren't all unsuccessful, miserable people with nothing to live for.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This has to be illegal, right? And I know the quid pro quo thing with Bondi in Fla is important, but I'm not quite sure I understand why a charity giving money to politicians in and of itself is ok either, but apparently it is?
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3C's
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Trump
Don Quixote
Footballguy
The Bondi thing wasn't okay either. Trump paid a penalty to the IRS, and the NY AG is also investigating it. I'm assuming the NY AG will be investigating this stuff too.
Harry Manback
Footballguy
The best part about how deliciously racist you are is how completely ignorant you are about it.
culdeus
Footballguy
Here's a spoiler alert, so hot that I should put spoiler tags on it if I could figure out how to do it on this board.
The supreme court is going to 7 justices, and that's just the way it's going to be.
Hillary won't get a shot to put one on unless the Senate flips to her in 2018. And it won't.
GOP will get a shot at adding 2 back if they can run her off in 2020 and keep the senate. Either of those things don't happen and it stays at 7, forever.
The supreme court is going to 7 justices, and that's just the way it's going to be.
Hillary won't get a shot to put one on unless the Senate flips to her in 2018. And it won't.
GOP will get a shot at adding 2 back if they can run her off in 2020 and keep the senate. Either of those things don't happen and it stays at 7, forever.
cstu
Footballguy
We need a form of Logan's Run, except instead of killing old people we take away their right to vote.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
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