Da Franchise
Footballguy
Most recent startup app I’ve seen has Drake at 18 and Aiyuk at 55. I have a pretty large gap between them myself.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (33 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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Most recent startup app I’ve seen has Drake at 18 and Aiyuk at 55. I have a pretty large gap between them myself.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes. In SF. But it's probably close to a coinflip.
I mean, the Niners also have a murky QB situation. Purdy is probably better for Aiyuk, but they're a run-oriented team with three other proven pass-catchers in Deebo, Kittle and CMC. And Shanahan isn't going anywhere, so the offense is unlikely to shift too dramatically. London did enough in a crappy offense that I think he could be a very good WR1; he's three years younger than Aiyuk; and the QB/coaching situation in Atlanta could be vastly different a year from now.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Mainly for me, it is that Aiyuk has more or less plateaued and I think we know what we have with him. He's never going to be consistently better than the 4th option in SF. With London he is at least presumed to be the alpha in the WR room (yes Pitts I know) and we haven't seen his ceiling yet. Presumably it's higher.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Sound logic
A decent sized gap due to age and competition for targets.
Forecasting how their futures play out such as QB situations, if Aiyuk eventually leaves in FA, if they let Deebo go if they extend him, etc, etc etc seems hard to predict to give one the advantage over the other. But right now it looks like 4 good passing options on the SF offense and 2 on the Falcons and Aiyuk is not old but about 3 years younger should matter.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I have Ayiuk in a 16 team Superflex, and there’s no way in hell you getting him for 2.04 from me even if it were 12 team.
I realize the 49ers have questions at quarterback as well, but I’ve seen enough to believe he’s worth more than that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not sure that I agree with that, but to each their own.
northern exposure
Footballguy
Sure, but that's based on a startup scenario. But, what about if you are a contending team in an established dynasty league? Doesn't Aiyuk's current performance vs London's potential make the rankings closer?
I guess I just didn't get the OP's comment that the top 2 assets in the trade were London and the 2.04 pick.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I suppose the gap is smaller in established leagues than a startup but just in terms of the market London is absolutely priced higher in general than Aiyuk. And really I'd put the 2.04 and Aiyuk as pretty close so when I said the top 2 assets I was being somewhat loose but I definitely love the trade and don't see Aiyuk ever really doing more than he has already, without a change of scenery. For me I hit at pretty high rate on those early 2nds so 2.04 in a deep RB class in a format where WR3/4s like Aiyuk are more like cloggers than difference makers is closer than appears.
I also would have a hard time pulling the trigger on it if it was my share of Aiyuk vs 2.04 in a vacuum, which is why I called that comp closer to a coinflip in my book, but then the remainder of London vs the 2.08/Sutton is really a grandslam.
It's pretty hard to find buyers for Aiyuk whereas London is a shiny new toy. Even if he busts, which I don't believe for a second after having looked plenty good his rookie year, it's still good process IMO.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I’m fairly sure I’d be taking London much earlier than Aiyuk in redraft. He’s significantly better short and long term in my view and I’m an Aiyuk fan. He just doesn’t offer any ceiling in that offense. The underlying stats for London were fantastic last year, especially without Mariota. He’s a stud. Wish I had been higher on him coming out.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SingleQB not involved
Team A gave Metcalf, Swift, 1.07, 3.12
Team B gave CMC, Waller
Trying to get away from Waller and Swift but I'm still in love with both CMC and Metcalf so give me the side with the picks. I guess?
Team A gave Metcalf, Swift, 1.07, 3.12
Team B gave CMC, Waller
Trying to get away from Waller and Swift but I'm still in love with both CMC and Metcalf so give me the side with the picks. I guess?
By 2024 or2025 he'll likely be the #1WR in SF or someone else's #1. Just got to wait 1-2 year for what London already has is main reason I don't see them as equal but I do think one day Aiyuk will be paid and treated like a NFL WR1.
I got a strong leaning for the Metcalf, Swift, 1.7 side.
foxco
Footballguy
I'll take Metcalf + side, though if CMC could lead team B to a title this season and make it worth it.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I can see that as well.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is my feeling as well. I disagree with @barackdhouse’s take that Aiyuk has “peaked” - he’s been ascending for 2 years now and looks a lot like an alpha out there.
If the concern is over SF’s QBs, ok - that’s valid, and one I’ve also expressed. But saying someone has peaked implies they’re either incapable of more, or on the down-swing, and I don’t see either of those as a fair evaluation of Aiyuk.
So I don’t see 2.04 as remotely fair value for him, much less greater.
I ran it through 4 trade calcs just to see if I was off base here - I know they aren’t the end-all be-all, but all 4 had it between 30-60% in Aiyuk’s favor.
Maybe the league format makes more of a difference here than I’m accounting for, but I can’t imagine a format where 2.04 nets a profit over Aiyuk, even with clearing a roster spot.
I don't think he's peaked either. Now I'd add the comment from barack I responded to indicated "without a change of scenery" and I tend to agree with that, that other then injuries wiping out some of the pass catchers on SF that his value with the current makeup of this team has peaked or real close to it. I just think when it's time for his extension, and looking at Deebo's pay, that scenery for him will change even if the location does not.
I actually think he's a stud talent, but current situation of a good amount of mouths to feed where he looks like the 4th option most weeks on a heavy run team with a dominant defense rarely putting them in negative game script combined with sub-optimal or average type QB play is a lot of stuff dragging him down.
I say all the time I don't play SF but if 5 QB's go I'd guess the options at pick 2.4 will look pretty similar to options I'll have in most of my one QB leagues at pick 1.11. This was FFPC I'd say in that format I'd prefer Aiyuk over 1.11 but because of the tight roster and fact Aiyuk seems to be 1-2 years away from starting to reach his full potential I would consider it close to his range of value, I don't think he's drawing much higher back in trades.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While the bolded is probably true, I also really don’t see where Aiyuk shareholders would be selling for that.
One of those too much to buy, not enough to sell scenarios depending on which side of the deal you’re on.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
To be fair I said 'plateaued' which isn't quite the same as peaked. I do think he is capable of more but I'm not waiting longer to see it. I also think he can maintain this plateau which isn't a terrible one, as opposed to any kind of impending decline. I don't see a decline anytime soon.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Recent FFPC trades involving Aiyuk, not involved in any:
TriFlex
Team A gave Aiyuk
Team B gave 2024 2nd, 3rd x2
that trade was probably influenced at least a little by roster cutdowns
1QB
Team A gave 1.10
Team B gave Aiyuk
SuperFlex
Team A gave Aiyuk, 2024 1st & 2nd
Team B gave Waddle, 2024 3rd
not sure a 2.04 plus a 1st and 2nd gets Waddle (or the 3rd on top) let alone 1.10 instead of 2.04 so that side seems Waddle all day to me.
TriFlex
Team A gave Aiyuk
Team B gave 2024 2nd, 3rd x2
that trade was probably influenced at least a little by roster cutdowns
1QB
Team A gave 1.10
Team B gave Aiyuk
SuperFlex
Team A gave Aiyuk, 2024 1st & 2nd
Team B gave Waddle, 2024 3rd
not sure a 2.04 plus a 1st and 2nd gets Waddle (or the 3rd on top) let alone 1.10 instead of 2.04 so that side seems Waddle all day to me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Metcalf side easily
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FFPC standard
Tee Higgins
For
1.11 and a 2024 1st (could be anywhere)
Tee Higgins
For
1.11 and a 2024 1st (could be anywhere)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Plateau - ok, I still think he has room to ascend. Especially if he changes teams, or the SF QB situation matures/improves.
I see the terms as somewhat synonymous in context, but your added detail regarding his trajectory not declining is noted.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Seems....awful
eighsse2
Footballguy
Agreed. If I could pick any three of those six, I very well might pick 1.11, Gainwell, AND Gibson.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’d say the 1.11 alone should get you Jamaal and Claypool (and even that would be an overpay).
Rookiefever
Footballguy
10t 1qb
Sent kupp
For calvin Ridley , picks 7 and 20.
Sent kupp
For calvin Ridley , picks 7 and 20.
jwsbowler
Footballguy
Kupp for me
eighsse2
Footballguy
Ridley and the picks
barackdhouse
Footballguy
gross
joey
Footballguy
Assuming the Kupp team is win now and the Ridley team is rebuilding. Makes sense to me.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I love CMC but I'd go with the DK/1.07 side here.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I can see both sides of this. Think value is about right so would be a decision based on roster for me. Wouldn’t even characterize it as win now vs rebuild. Ridley is plenty win now. If I have roster space and need a running back, give me the picks. If I’m in a consolidation phase, it’s not a bad price to pay for Kupp.
Blick
Footballguy
Here's one I found interesting. 12 team, 1 Qb, ppr.
Ridley for Swift
I feel like the value is probably similar, but the arrows are pointing in opposite directions. I've went back and forth on this one and think I settled on the Ridley side as I think his value will continue to climb as we hear positive camp reports.
Ridley for Swift
I feel like the value is probably similar, but the arrows are pointing in opposite directions. I've went back and forth on this one and think I settled on the Ridley side as I think his value will continue to climb as we hear positive camp reports.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I'm lower on Swifty than most but I'd go Ridley for sure. Risk is there for both though so mater of preference.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I finally got my Justin Jefferson trade through after negotiating all weekend. 1 QB, .5 PPR, and 12 teams:
Gave:
Davante Adams, 1.06, 1.07, 2.04, 2024 3rd (will be really late), and a 2025 6th
Got:
Justin Jefferson, 3.01, and 2 2024 6ths
Gave:
Davante Adams, 1.06, 1.07, 2.04, 2024 3rd (will be really late), and a 2025 6th
Got:
Justin Jefferson, 3.01, and 2 2024 6ths
foxco
Footballguy
Seems fair. Gotta feel pretty good looking at JJ on your roster.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Oh for sure. I drafted him too and traded him his rookie year before he went nuts to get Kelce/Jacobs in a big deal and then won back-to-back titles so it worked out but I wanted him back. Hated losing 6 and 7 but my lineup is now:
Dak, CMC, King Henry, Barkley, Jefferson, Waddle, Kittle with Evans, Ridley, Mixon, and Pitts off the bench so I like my chances to win again this year after taking 3rd last year.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Swift all day every day by a mile.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
That’s a frickin steal for Jefferson. Nice job with the window dressing.
I’ll add it’s a steal if you’re thinking of last years Davante. Considering the pairing with Jimmy G, it’s larceny with what I imagine this year’s Davante to produce.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
1.11/Gibson side rather easily though I do like Jamaal.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Thanks. Although I don't know about a full on steal just because of the loss of all 3 of those picks but I'm really happy with it and glad JJ is returning home.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's more then I've ever paid for a player in fantasy. Never been my style to go all in on a player like that but on the contrary have given up players for hauls like this which helped me build powerhouses. But in this case I'd pay it for JJ. The picks are solid but not premium and Davante is basically a whole career older then Jefferson as well as of course being an inferior fantasy option now. Still an elite one though.
eighsse2
Footballguy
12 team, 20 man, PPR, QRRWWFKD, 6 pts all TDs
Was offered this, had a good ring to it, looked at some rankings, found no *breaking news*, so I went ahead and took it.
Gave: Elijah Moore, James Robinson, Renfrow
Got: Dotson, 2.07
Elijah is exciting, getting away from a place where he just was not getting targetted, but don't know what to expect out of him.
I had been a little excited everytime Robinson got a new home, but so far he just isn't getting touches, and that says a lot. The blurb about Belichick calling him "depth" got me off the "maybe he'll be fully healed up and ready to break out again like his rookie season!" train of thought.
Renfrow I don't really care about, though he may have an opportunity with a lot of freed up targets in LV.
I drafted Dotson and traded him right off the bat. He's been mostly a touchdown-dependent headline grabber, shrug. But happy to have him back, solid prospect.
That 2.07, in this RB-obsessed league, could easily get the WR4 of my draft list, whoever that ends up being. Possibly WR3. Or a RB10 or 11, or a QB3 or 4.
Was offered this, had a good ring to it, looked at some rankings, found no *breaking news*, so I went ahead and took it.
Gave: Elijah Moore, James Robinson, Renfrow
Got: Dotson, 2.07
Elijah is exciting, getting away from a place where he just was not getting targetted, but don't know what to expect out of him.
I had been a little excited everytime Robinson got a new home, but so far he just isn't getting touches, and that says a lot. The blurb about Belichick calling him "depth" got me off the "maybe he'll be fully healed up and ready to break out again like his rookie season!" train of thought.
Renfrow I don't really care about, though he may have an opportunity with a lot of freed up targets in LV.
I drafted Dotson and traded him right off the bat. He's been mostly a touchdown-dependent headline grabber, shrug. But happy to have him back, solid prospect.
That 2.07, in this RB-obsessed league, could easily get the WR4 of my draft list, whoever that ends up being. Possibly WR3. Or a RB10 or 11, or a QB3 or 4.
