ghostguy123
Footballguy
Do you think pick 1.03 this year has more or less market value than a projected later 2023 1st?
Simple question. What you prefer is irrelevant to this question.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (43 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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Simple question. What you prefer is irrelevant to this question.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Likely the 2022 1.03 has greater market value than a 2023 1.05-6-7-8
But when I commented on a trade it was with my opinion, not a commentary on market value.
That should have been self evident.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
gotcha. All good. I try not to take things too personally on here. Way bigger issues in the world.
Yeah, like I said in my response, I do think Toney is a player to target and believe he has a future. But I also said I could see dealing that package for the 1.01 side, which is how I arrived at my “fair” determination.
FWIW, I just ran it through my calc (set for SF league) and it’s about 14% in favor of the 1.01 side. Seems like an acceptable tolerance.
Disagree that Toney has to be a top 5 WR. Irv Smith is also involved, and I see him as being a little undervalued as well. If you get WR2 FF numbers out of Toney & start-able mid-tier TE numbers out of Smith, plus whatever you get at 1.10, it’s potentially worth it.
There’s also the factor that whomever you get at 1.01 could be a bust, and this diversifies assets. In that light if the 1.01 (let’s say Hall) skill set doesn’t translate well to the NFL, your birds in the hand of Toney & Smith could merely be adequate & still win this deal, along with whatever you get at 1.10
Anyway, not my trade, not that important to me. Just a knee-jerk response to the eleven millionth trade I’ve seen posted here. I’m pretty sure the world won’t stop spinning whether I’m right or wrong about it. I won’t lose sleep over it either way.
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Boston
Footballguy
I am probably as high on Toney as anyone on this board but I am not a big fan of the construction of this deal...Toney is a great piece to go after and after a rocky rookie year I am sure the guy chasing the 1.1 has no problem moving him to obtain this pick (which also means he is probably obtainable without giving up the 1.1)...the 1.10 is solid but nothing special in this year's draft and while I like Irv I'm not sure how high his upside is which means IMO this deal has far too much bust potential should Toney not work out...I think there has to be a better deal involving the 1.1 and Toney than this one...I would like to see a better second piece than either the 1.10 or Smith.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
No doubt. I do like Smith though an think he is a TE1 next year. I do see 1.10 not being a great prospect. 1.1 could always bust but the likelihood is much smaller. I am interested what the Giants are able to do on offense next year and what it does to the value of their skill guys.gotcha. All good. I try not to take things too personally on here. Way bigger issues in the world.
Yeah, like I said in my response, I do think Toney is a player to target and believe he has a future. But I also said I could see dealing that package for the 1.01 side, which is how I arrived at my “fair” determination.
FWIW, I just ran it through my calc (set for SF league) and it’s about 14% in favor of the 1.01 side. Seems like an acceptable tolerance.
Disagree that Toney has to be a top 5 WR. Irv Smith is also involved, and I see him as being a little undervalued as well. If you get WR2 FF numbers out of Toney & start-able mid-tier TE numbers out of Smith, plus whatever you get at 1.10, it’s potentially worth it.
There’s also the factor that whomever you get at 1.01 could be a bust, and this diversifies assets. In that light if the 1.01 (let’s say Hall) skill set doesn’t translate well to the NFL, your birds in the hand of Toney & Smith could merely be adequate & still win this deal, along with whatever you get at 1.10
Anyway, not my trade, not that important to me. Just a knee-jerk response to the eleven millionth trade I’ve seen posted here. I’m pretty sure the world won’t stop spinning whether I’m right or wrong about it. I won’t lose sleep over it either way.
foxco
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
2 firsts is 2 firsts, but I like both ARSB & Bateman. Hard call.
Not sure if that framing is accurate since it’s picks for players, but it’s probably fair.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve said this every year since I dealt for Daniel Jones. This way leads to madness, my friend.
ETA: and drafted Engram inaugural auction. To think what players I could have had at that point for $21
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I think this really should be 1.5 or 1.6 at worst instead of 1.10 personally to make it close.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I could see this going either way. I don't really see ASB or Bateman much more than WR2s so I think I'd lean towards the picks but If you believe in ASB or Bateman then I have no problem being on that side at all.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
No doubt. I don't have high hopes (thus part of my feeling on Toney). I have Barkley though and can't get anything for him so hoping the new coaching staff will commit to the run for me.I’ve said this every year since I dealt for Daniel Jones. This way leads to madness, my friend.
ETA: and drafted Engram inaugural auction. To think what players I could have had at that point for $21
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Honestly, it's a dream team of braintrust they brought in. I'm totally impressed, and would love nothing more than to see a Danny 11.49-yen & Saquan Barkley redemption story. If, as alleged, the NFL is like WWF, this would be the perfect plotline.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I think it is an ok chance of that. I definitely think they won't be worse than last year or 2 at least. They just need to do some serious work on the O/D lines.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Small change trade I forgot to post from a week ago. FFPC 1QB
I gave 3.11
I got Sony Michel
Practically free and need some depth what the heck
I gave 3.11
I got Sony Michel
Practically free and need some depth what the heck
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not quite that fast but only took a couple more hours.
gave 1.12
got Conner, 3.02
Dude has bought 6 running backs today.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Seems like a pretty solid value for 1.12 I doubt there’s a running back better at that point.
16 man roster & he got 6 RBs? How many total does he have now?
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The value of the 1.01 will only increase as we get closer to the draft. Selling it now for what appears to be “light” makes zero sense.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I see it pretty much the same.
2022 Top 7 picks are about the line I see value. I think 1.03 is good value. After #7, there could be a significant drop pending landing spots.
I would equate 2022 pick 1.03 as projected to be comparable to 2023 value pick 1.08 due to the depth of talent expected to be available. Some early “research” has good value in Top 15-17 range in 2023.
just my 2 cents
barackdhouse
Footballguy
7. Pollard, JRob, Conner, Gordon, Sermon, Foreman, S Perine. He is at 17 and if he stood pat (yeah right) I imagine Perine would be his cut.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s an ok stable of backs, I guess. I’m not sure how useful Sermon Is, but he’s theoretically in line for touches if things break right. I like Gordon & Pollard. It’s an interesting group viewed altogether. The backs I like aren’t young. Gordon & Conner probably have the most start-able but have substantial injury woes. It’s kind of a motley crew.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I only glanced at it and didn't think too deeply about it, so I won't pile on, but it sure seems it at first blush. 1.12 for Conner seems like too much to me.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I think I'd take the picks, but it's close. Assuming that you'd be looking to replace those two WRs with two more using those picks, I think the upside of Burks/Wilson/London at 1.03 and Bell/Dotson/Jameson (or maybe one of those first three slide) at 1.06 is worth the gamble over ARSB/Bateman.Blick said:
I understand what you are saying but for the general value of a pick I think this is not the perception of most people. Here's why. If you trying to trade pick 1.03 you will get more for that pick then you will for pick 1.08. I know you will say but, but 2023 is better than 2022.....and you are right. However, most people don't think that way (when talking about just a pick in a trade) so you don't get that "value" assessment.Birdie048 said:
Now if you are a believer that 1.08 next year is equal to 1.03 this year I have no doubt you can use that to your advantage to swap 1.03 for 1.08 plus something. It will likely be easy to accomplish.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All good points, and fair. Which is why it’s important to separate an opinion, (e.g. “I like the picks side”) from a statement of valuation, (e.g. “it clearly favors the side with the players)
Sometimes folks get way too wrapped up with value. It’s exactly how one can use a trade calc to get the better of a trade partner.
But if I’m considering deals on this topic, I usually go with what my gut feels about a deal, even if market value disagrees.
It’s ok to favor a player over a “more valuable” pick. The pick has yet to manifest. The player has at least to that point proven their value.
ETA: and if it’s 2022 picks vs 2023 picks, I try not to look at 2022 in a vacuum. Very few players in the top 12 this year would be in the top 12 next year, IMO. So yes, the market value of a 2022 1.03 might be stronger, but if I believe the 1.06 in 2023 will yield a more talented player, I’d have no issue making that deal.
Philosophical, I realize.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC 1QB not involved
Team A gave 1.04
Team B gave 1.07, Gabriel Davis
Team A gave 1.04
Team B gave 1.07, Gabriel Davis
foxco
Footballguy
I'll take 1.07/GD, though I see why the team getting 1.04 may want to move up to see if a top RB is available.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
That's why I don't understand some of these early trades, you'll know for sure when the pick is on the clock. Both sides gambling a bit on the rise or fall of pick value.
Blick
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Right now I have a top 4 tier. But I have barely started looking. I will probably add at least one or two more names to it. But I can see the possibility of a real nose dive after 1.06 or 1.07. I am not excited about picks I hold after that.
I do think there are perhaps lots of owners that hate this class too much though, and that there may be deals like this to be had. To jump from 1.07 to 1.04. I love doing deals like that in February. It doesn't have to be because I am targeting a specific player. In this case I would be happy because I have one top4 tier.
I do think there are perhaps lots of owners that hate this class too much though, and that there may be deals like this to be had. To jump from 1.07 to 1.04. I love doing deals like that in February. It doesn't have to be because I am targeting a specific player. In this case I would be happy because I have one top4 tier.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Agreed. I see value in Top 7 slots pending landing spots if it grows or shrinks
Making deals after NFL Draft or during Dynasty rookie draft will be more expensive so trying now might make sense
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well, exactly. They are gambling.
Nothing wrong with that. Waiting till everything is known is...........redraft. bleh
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think the WR depth is good in this draft thru the 1st round. No TEs. Maybe 3 RBs. So probably 8 or 9 WRs will go 1st round in drafts this year, and I think they are decent quality WR potential though the end of the 1st.
rockaction
Footballguy
I’m ready for the combine. I want to see how the RBs test. I don’t know why, but from watching highlights, some of these second round guys are pretty darn good. Allgeier, White, Ford all seem more than reasonable at the position. I could be dreaming, so the combine will tell us a bunch.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d probably take Davis & 1.07, but I like Davis. I know not everyone does.
In my SF league, as many as 4 QB will be taken before my 1.08, 2 at least. I’m betting it’s 3 before all’s said & done.
As such, at 1.08 I’m likely to get a top 3 WR or RB.
i see the cut line at around 10 in that context. I’d be fine with a Spiller, Walker, Drake or Wilson. And that’s if I don’t deal the pick for a 2023 1st, if someone else covets one of the players on the board.
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Boston
Footballguy
Definitely 1.7/Davis...I would easily move down three spots in this draft for the potential that Davis is the real deal...not too much downside to this deal as this draft is a different one and there is a chance you could get the same guy at 1.7 that you are targeting at 1.4...quality move for the new Davis Owner.
After spending last two months digging into this draft I'm were I started with respect to very top of the class. It's weak compared to just about any year, has a feel that some RB will need to land favorably to be held in regards that say Josh Jacobs was held and he was one of the weaker 1.1's going.
But I've changed my mind completely on late rounds especially second-third round and most especially for TE premium. In short the lack of top talent appears to have obscured how deep this class is at RB, WR and TE. It's actually mind numbing trying to sort them out right now.
Unless you are hard reaching you won't be picking a RB at 4 because any of top guys who land well will be gone.
So my guess is at 1.4 you are picking WR1 or WR2. At pick 7 you are likely picking WR4 or WR5.
In this case, assuming I got a spot for Davis, I'd much rather take two shots on hitting a WR so I'd take Davis and WR4-5 and let someone else try and decide WR1 or WR2.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
That is interesting and IMO fair but way I stack this up the biggest gap is between the 1.6 and Friermuth and that sways me to that side. Especially without knowing were Ridley will be playing.
