Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree with this completely. Also agree that the talent is there and IF he goes to a better situation as a FA, and IF he can stay healthy, and IF he’s used as a feature back….
yeah, that’s a lot of IFs.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
yeah, that’s a lot of IFs.
Post-KC I don't see Tyreek pulling the 1.01 in many 0.5PPR leagues, much less adding Evans for just the 1.12. Evans is worth a lot more compared to most other WR's ranked over him in PPR the closer you get to non-PPR as he's a prolific TD scorer as long as Brady is under center. Even if it's just for one more year I'd rather have that than the 12.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s also possible that your sample size of 1 league isn’t sufficient for a definitive conclusion.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The only conclusion I expect is no offers. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if there are any. This is an active league too.It’s also possible that your sample size of 1 league isn’t sufficient for a definitive conclusion.
That one guy
Footballguy
10 team keeper (11 keepers), .25ppc and .15ppy rec and running, along with 1.5ppr for RBs
gave 2.05 + KHerbert
got Lenny F
gave 2.05 + KHerbert
got Lenny F
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't think i would trade 1.1 for tyreek, but Evans is only 7 months older than tyreek and plays with Brady for at least another year so I just don't see what the new hill owner was thinking here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This deal is a hard to properly evaluate. I had Evans for years. Finally dealt him early last year.
First, Evans has been one of the most difficult players to deal the last several years. He’s been underrated for years. Second, while not old, he’s not getting younger either. Another issue is when Brady retires - not if. It’s going to happen for real at some point in the relatively near future. And finally, last year was the 1st year I can remember him being healthy for a full season. And while he doesn’t miss games, he’s often come out gimpy as a “decoy”, hobbling through routes with bad results for FF owners. It’s why he used to be thought of as inconsistent. I mean, kudos for playing hurt - he’s a gamer. But yeah.
Tyreek is difficult to project in Miami, so all in all this is a difficult deal to evaluate. I don’t know what Tua’s upside is with Tyreek & vice versa. I also don’t know how the new coaching staff will scheme him. Most seem to be predicting a major drop-off, but it seems a bit overblown.
But my knee-jerk is to take 1.01 + Evans. I like Hall (pending landing spot) and it’s a fair package. Interesting trade.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Lol I have three other offers I made out there and will see what their response is. This is at least the 2nd time recently you have questioned my honesty and I gotta tell you I don't have a whole lot of respect left to give you if you're going to behave that way. You *do* understand you would never get away with that #### in person right?
It's not obvious because it makes zero sense to argue James Conner's 2018 first season as a starter was better then Miles Sanders first season as a starter in 2019 when the discussion was Miles Sanders in relation to 1.8. It's odd cherry picking and relevant to nothing.
Don't need a dynasty lesson from you.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Really? So you’re making threats now? Send me a link to those trades and I’ll apologize afterwards. Also, what was the other time I questioned you? Post that as well.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
This got unnecessarily snarky. Probably feels to you like i started it, so I'm sorry if it came off that way. I don't question your knowledge and enjoy reading your posts here. It doesn't sound like you feel the same, at least on this topic. Sorry if i offended. My intent was only to discuss the "industry" price for Sanders which I feel has been too high for years. I raised the conner point to show that a similar player who hit free agency at a similar age had a top 5 season and still didn't get the price that Sanders owners want for their guy who is coming off a much worse season. You feel like Sanders has a significantly higher upside than Conner, and I honestly still don't see how. But i agree with your earlier comment. I didn't expect to spend this much time in a Sunday discussing Miles Sanders.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Unsolicited suggestion: seems like everyone might wanna take a deep breath or two & take a step back. It’s just fantasy football. Everyone has their take. It’s a beautiful day folks. We’re all friends here.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This is an interesting trade. Jimmy G doesn't have much value but Goff doesn't have a ton either. I'm not as high on Gibson as others. I do like ASB and Leo is way more valuable after signing his deal. I could see both sides but I probably go ASB/Leo/8 if I had to.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Most people won't like this deal but I made it because of the value I just got in the Kamara for picks and Hill for 1.01 deals. 12 team, .5 PPR, 1 QB:
Got CMC
Gave 1.12, 23 1st (will be 11 or 12 and I have 3 others), 24 1st (almost guaranteed late), Jalen Reagor (WR7), Gus (RB5 without CMC), and Irv Smith (TE3 with Kelce/Pitts on the roster).
I overpaid but I almost did this more to keep CMC off one of my competitors than anything, it didn't take away from any of my players that would ever start, still have 1.01/1.03 this year, and have 3 earlier 1sts/2 2nds in 2023. Plus, I am 2 time returning champ and had a RB hole with just trading Kamara.
Got CMC
Gave 1.12, 23 1st (will be 11 or 12 and I have 3 others), 24 1st (almost guaranteed late), Jalen Reagor (WR7), Gus (RB5 without CMC), and Irv Smith (TE3 with Kelce/Pitts on the roster).
I overpaid but I almost did this more to keep CMC off one of my competitors than anything, it didn't take away from any of my players that would ever start, still have 1.01/1.03 this year, and have 3 earlier 1sts/2 2nds in 2023. Plus, I am 2 time returning champ and had a RB hole with just trading Kamara.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t mind this trade at all. 2 very late firsts and some scraps for CMC? Yes please. If he gives you 14 games it’s totally worth it. Heck, it’s probably worth it if he gives you 12 CMC-level games.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I would take 1.01. I think there is a clear top 2. Then 5 more I like. Then a drop for me. So I like to stay in the top 7 so having one of those picks outside of that pushes me to 1.01 side.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
That is my thinking and because of all of the picks I had, this felt like a price I could pay to keep him off of the other couple contender rosters. It was 3 very late 1sts though.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I like Hall alot so I would go with the 1.01 side here but it is close and if you really like 8 guys in the draft, I would say it is decently fair. Especially not knowing where Hall goes yet.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah, I’d missed the ‘24 1st.
the further out you get the more difficult it is to predict the picks, but if your team is that good, then yes it should be another late pick.
Definitely makes it closer. I don’t love giving up that much in future draft capital but again: CMC’s downfall may be exaggerated by 2 injury seasons in a row. He could come back and play 15 games the next two years, winning you a couple ‘ships.
So yeah, I still don’t mind the deal, but that 3rd 1st rounder makes it a little harder to pull the trigger for me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Those are your words, not mine. I'm saying you should know better. The other time was when we were talking about Star Wars and it isn't that big of a deal to question my honesty once, but you've done it twice now and you are doubling down on it here.
You're really not worth anymore of my time. You have been disrespectful towards me for years and I really can't stand your ultra-conservative risk-averse-to-a-fault takes. It is fine to disagree but you hate my guts anyway so what the #### would my motivation be to lie to you? I'm not posting a thing to appease your obtuse stance here. If one of these other pending offers gets accepted I'll post that because that is what this thread is for.
What was the last ####### trade you made anyway? And are you in as many as 3 leagues? So if nobody bites on your putting Renfrow OTB for a 2nd does that mean you're savvy and we're all idiots? That seems to be the gist of your argument and it is gross and absurd. Only *you* can know Renfrow's true value even though there is nobody anywhere that is backing up your nonsense. Might as well call me a liar then.
It is gross and I don't appreciate it. No I'm not making ####### threats genius.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
It was hard. I'm not one that overpays usually. Still having 1.1/1.3 this year, 3 1sts & 2 2nd next year, and probably the best roster in the league coming off 2 chips made it easier but it was hard to pull the trigger.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I tell you what we should do. I won't reply to any of your posts and you don't replay to any of mine. My guess is that you can't resist the temptation.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Unless @JohnnyU and @barackdhouse are going to headline the next FBG Forum fight card - we should probably just get back to Dynasty Trade discussion. I think we can all agree we are way off task and the underlying digs at each other and getting worked up isn't going to fix anything.
We all have bad days - let's just chalk it up to that and go back to being nerdy fantasy football fans?
We all have bad days - let's just chalk it up to that and go back to being nerdy fantasy football fans?
BigJim®
Footballguy
Yeah, not a trade I would have done but if getting a player is that important, and you have the ammo, being happy yourself is all that matters. Personally, if I was as strong as your team seems to be, I probably would choose to ensure my dominance for the next decade vs. parlaying a ton of value into a single player at a short career position. But all that matters is you are happy with it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You always use absolutes in here saying things like "no one would pay X for Player A" - and most of the time you are way off.
You say no one would pay a second for Jones, when juts last week I got a 2023 second for him. I'm not a big Jones fan but he's shown ability and a lot of owners blame Arians for his usage and putting him in the doghouse for dropping a pass. You really think NO ONE would give a second round pick for the potential lead back in a high powered offense? Yes, he does have risk which is why you likely can't get a first but not everyone values second round picks like you obviously do.
You say no one would pay a mid second for Renfrow which is a very odd thing to say as well - I would gladly pay a mid-second for him. Renfrow is 26 years old coming off a 99 catch season on only 123 targets. Yes, Adams will likely take the lion's share of targets - but we also have to factor in a Josh McDaniels offense that feeds slot WRs. I'd expect Adams to lift the offense up in general. Repeating 123 targets doesn't seem so daunting.
But I guess I'm not savvy.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
You're right, I need to refrain from using absolutes, but go ahead and give a 2nd for Renfrow and we can talk about it in December.You always use absolutes in here saying things like "no one would pay X for Player A" - and most of the time you are way off.
You say no one would pay a second for Jones, when juts last week I got a 2023 second for him. I'm not a big Jones fan but he's shown ability and a lot of owners blame Arians for his usage and putting him in the doghouse for dropping a pass. You really think NO ONE would give a second round pick for the potential lead back in a high powered offense? Yes, he does have risk which is why you likely can't get a first but not everyone values second round picks like you obviously do.
You say no one would pay a mid second for Renfrow which is a very odd thing to say as well - I would gladly pay a mid-second for him. Renfrow is 26 years old coming off a 99 catch season on only 123 targets. Yes, Adams will likely take the lion's share of targets - but we also have to factor in a Josh McDaniels offense that feeds slot WRs. I'd expect Adams to lift the offense up in general. Repeating 123 targets doesn't seem so daunting.
But I guess I'm not savvy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Oh gee - thanks for the warning.
Let's see who is the consensus WR taken at 2.05 and compare that player to Renfrow in December to really make your statement mean something.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
It has nothing to do with what the a 2.05 does or not, it is what I believe is the perceived value of Renfrow vs draft picks. He may very well be worth who most take at 2.05, but that doesn't mean that is his true value, which is what people are willing to give. I could be completely wrong about Renfrow, but it doesn't seem anyone in my league is interested in him. I wonder why, since it is a league full of FBGs and is a PPR league.. I have a message out to my league that I will give up Renfrow for a 2023 2nd. No offers or conversation yet and this is a league that is active and I make more trades than most. Too bad I don't have Renfrow in more than one league, because if my league doesn't offer it, that doesn't mean it wouldn't happen in another league.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wouldn't Renfrow's TRUE value be his production. You are talking about market value and conflating market value with your valuations and apparently basing it on one league but since you have FBGs in your league its obviously a super-savvy one while the rest of us play with monkeys.
I'll move past this but maybe re-read your posts and see how condescending you sound.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I apologize if I sounded condescending and talking in absolutes is probably the cause. You're right, we should just move past this. I thought I was finished with it earlier, but you jumped in.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
That was exactly why it was so hard for me to do it. I didn't really want to and tried to keep it a 2 1sts and some other stuff but he just wouldn't budge and the only other team with the picks to make it happen was the team that is my biggest competition for the Chip this year.BigJim® said:
I don't disagree with what you said at all. Just figured it wouldn't hurt and I am relatively new to dynasty (4 years) but have played a ton of redraft for many years so sometimes my desire to win this year can outweigh future. I refused to give my earlier picks and the fact that all 3 of those picks are going to be 11 or 12 most likely made it ok to me with the others I have.
I could easily regret this one though.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
If you feel that way then 1.06/1.08 is the way to go for sure but most people have this draft light after the 1st few picks and 1.01 is normally a franchise changing talent so I'd go the other way. Totally depends on what you think you will get in the mid-1st. Either way, I think this is a bad move for that person until after the NFL draft when we have an idea of what we are getting and where.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The 2022 pick? Nah. The 2023 pick could be something special in a very deep draft. My cut-off is around pick 18, and I could convince myself to go to higher.
There are quite a few nice prospects that will be on the board at 10-11-12 in 2023.
2024 I'm not sure how deep it will be, so that's a mystery at the moment.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'd pick him 1.1 right now but I don't think it's as much the given everyone assumes it will be.
There are too many dynasty owners that go the exact opposite and play for the future way too much and miss out on the chance to win championships. The whole point is to win championships. I have your same philosophy (have been playing dynasty for close to 20 years) and it has served me well. I think this is the best approach. I have found it is not very difficult to stay relevant and not tear everything down. You may miss out on the marquee rookie guy (or not........I traded for Jonathan Taylor after his slow start rookie season) but the point is to have a shot at the title consistently so how you do that really isn't a one path road. I think your approach is a good one. Older players with tread left are always available cheap from owners playing for next year.
We've been having this exact discussion in one of my dynasty leagues the past few days.
I'd be the guy you'd probably classify as playing for the future but I'd not agree with that classification or that championships are not important.
My theory, and I'm looking at this from FFPC format angle, is dynasty championships are won in 1-2 week windows. For those that don't know the way FFPC finals work is you get the last 4 teams and over last two weeks of the season it's total points between those 4 teams(great format IMO). When you are talking last few weeks of the season the attrition mounts and you usually start losing some of your studs, more crazy/luck if you want to call it stuff happens, you start seeing stuff like players popping off out of seemingly out of no where like Penny and ASB last year. I just don't think putting all your eggs in the basket to win now is for me. I've seen my own and to many other team tear up leagues during the season only to fall short in a 1-2 week sprint. Top to bottom stud teams.
So for me, my goal is continued excellence, trying to be a final 4 team every year. Accomplish that and a few championships will take care of itself. And a key way to accomplish this IMO is to put a higher value on youth vs older players.
My dynasty leagues don't have playoffs and play the full 17 (or 18) week schedule with best record taking the title. So continued excellence for the entire season is what gets you to the top and really takes some luck out of the equation when compared to a playoff format.
In playoff format's I equate success to being in the playoffs every year and the title game about half the time you make the playoffs. To me, championships are 95% luck in these type leagues for the exact reasons you stated. Screwy things happen at the end of the NFL season. So although Championships is the cream at the top, really making the playoffs/title game is the goal. For that reason I stand by my approach as that has shown me the most success. Once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.
Really, the biggest difference between "building for the future" and "always competing this year" is going totally draft pick heavy. I tend to look at 2-yr increments so loading up on future draft picks never really gets a chance in this philosophy. I also don't tend to value draft picks as high as most and would rather have a known NFL player than a crap shoot of a draft pick. That is not to say I give them away (because I do understand other's value them) but I don't have a problem moving a high pick for a player I believe in. Because of this I never go total rebuild.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Thus, why I said this was a bad move until the NFL draft later this month. I only really like the top 5 in this draft so I would still take 1.01 personally.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I totally agree. That is why I'm extremely happy with 3 1sts and 2 2nds in that draft and no more needs so I won't have to move any of them for pieces during the year either. Plus, every 5 years we are going to do our draft in Vegas and so that is next year. 23 will be a fun draft year for me.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
The key here is that there is many paths to success and each league rules change that as well. I like youth but I can always trade for picks and trust my valuation of talent to find good picks later. Can't always trade for championship pieces during the season so if I get the change when everyone else is having rookie fever during the combine/NFL draft season, then I'm going to jump on it. Especially if I still have plenty of picks to spare.
