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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (20 Viewers)

barackdhouse said:
Fair. Lots of criticism of this deal but did people not see that AJ Brown is in it?  That is two 1sts right there. 
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The same AJ Brown that keeps missing games due to injury and catches passes from Tannehill.  Plus, might demand a trade and who knows where he ends up.  I don't play SF in dynasty but this feels like it is at least 1 1st rounder short in 2023.  It isn't the worst deal but just not a good one when you are trading maybe the best SF fantasy asset out there.

 
jadensdad said:
12 team ppr SF

Fournette and thielen for

1.06, Turbisky and Terrence marshall
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Short term, the team getting Fournette+Thielen should have a very nice return on that deal. 

Long term...eh...the 1.06 is ok, I guess?  Still not a lot to like on that side. I'm gonna say it's the Lenny/Methuselah side for me. 

 
DTC has it in favor of the AJ Brown side, 83.6 - 62, or roughly a free middle 1st (or a premium to get Mahomes if you wanna think of it that way)

Hindery's April column has it as 92 - 58 in favor of the Brown side.

KTC has it as mostly even, but they incorporate value for clearing a roster spot. As much as I have lobbied for that over time, especially in FFPC, I think they have the juice turned on too high here. But nevertheless they call it fair

dynastyprocess.com has it in favor of the Brown side as well, 11074 - 9831.

My own values place it as 95 - 62 in favor of the Brown side.

All sources place a premium on acquiring Mahomes. I am *not* an AJ Brown stan. I have one share and have been trying to move him. I'm not the biggest Z Wilson fan either but his value might double by this time next year if he makes even a modest developmental leap. And 2.01 got me Jefferson two years ago, it isn't chopped liver, neither is 2.03. 

I have Mahomes in a few SF leagues and whenever someone has come after him I have replied with "it would take a Godfather offer." This AJ Brown deal isn't that for me. I wouldn't do it. But it is certainly fair. And not that it matters a ton, but I see *tons* of comments in here all the time about how "I don't play SuperFlex but..." - just something to chew on no big deal.

 
12 team, 1 QB, .5 PPR league:

Gave - 1.03/2023 1st (will definitely be 10-12 as won 2 years in a row and fav again)/2023 4th (late)

Got - 1.05/2023 1st (should be top 4)/2023 2nd (should be top 4 as well)

I also still have 1.01 this year and RBs will most likely go 1-3 in our draft as they are hard to come by and drafted quickly so I should get a top 2 WR at 1.05.

 
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barackdhouse said:
DTC has it in favor of the AJ Brown side, 83.6 - 62, or roughly a free middle 1st (or a premium to get Mahomes if you wanna think of it that way)

Hindery's April column has it as 92 - 58 in favor of the Brown side.

KTC has it as mostly even, but they incorporate value for clearing a roster spot. As much as I have lobbied for that over time, especially in FFPC, I think they have the juice turned on too high here. But nevertheless they call it fair

dynastyprocess.com has it in favor of the Brown side as well, 11074 - 9831.

My own values place it as 95 - 62 in favor of the Brown side.

All sources place a premium on acquiring Mahomes. I am *not* an AJ Brown stan. I have one share and have been trying to move him. I'm not the biggest Z Wilson fan either but his value might double by this time next year if he makes even a modest developmental leap. And 2.01 got me Jefferson two years ago, it isn't chopped liver, neither is 2.03. 

I have Mahomes in a few SF leagues and whenever someone has come after him I have replied with "it would take a Godfather offer." This AJ Brown deal isn't that for me. I wouldn't do it. But it is certainly fair. And not that it matters a ton, but I see *tons* of comments in here all the time about how "I don't play SuperFlex but..." - just something to chew on no big deal.
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We also didn't say it wasn't fair just that it was light.  If you are a AJ Brown or Zach Wilson believer then yes you can talk yourself in to this and I have now problem with it.  Just said it feels like a 23 1st light to me with 2.01/2.03 being this year in a weak draft so you aren't getting anything near Jefferson in my oppinion.

 
barackdhouse said:
I have Mahomes in a few SF leagues and whenever someone has come after him I have replied with "it would take a Godfather offer." This AJ Brown deal isn't that for me. I wouldn't do it. But it is certainly fair.
 
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to me, this is the crux. It’s not a terrible deal, nor is it particularly “unfair” (I ran it through a couple calcs, and it wasn’t that far off on either)

But if I’m dealing Mahomes, which I actually did do last year, it would take an offer I couldn’t refuse.

Mahomes makes the math a little bit irrelevant. He’s one of the top dynasty SF assets, and that’s not completely baked into the pricing of the trade calcs.

So to be an offer that I considered “a good price” for Mahomes, it actually needs to be imbalanced. I expect an overpay for Mahomes because he’s hands-down the best asset in this trade. ABJ isn’t close to Mahomes value in SF, and the rest of the picks didn’t make it so. And Zach Wilson (another player I roster in SF) is a nice asset, who might double in value. But it still wouldn’t get it done if someone offered me that for Mahomes.

This deal is perfect example of why people don’t like trade calcs, IMO. It’s “fair on paper” but still not close to fair, in terms of acquiring a top 3 dynasty asset like Mahomes.

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
We also didn't say it wasn't fair just that it was light.  If you are a AJ Brown or Zach Wilson believer then yes you can talk yourself in to this and I have now problem with it.  Just said it feels like a 23 1st light to me with 2.01/2.03 being this year in a weak draft so you aren't getting anything near Jefferson in my oppinion.
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You didn't say it wasn't fair but others did. No biggie. And no there won't be a Jefferson there this year. Pittman and Gibson were also there at that point. E Moore last year. Waddle went 2.01 in a couple SF last year as well. There are usually valuable players there but 2.01 gets referred to as a 2nd rounder (because duh) but it is really a premium pick, or at least in my experience in SF. I doubt this happens this year, but last year *lots* of early 2nd round picks that were OTC or close to it got moved for future 1sts. I wonder if this would look different if it were referred to as 1.13 and 1.15, kind of like how things cost $2.99 instead of $3.00?

Anyway it wasn't even my deal. I don't think anyone is offbase to say they don't like it. Just making the point it is more than equitable.

 
barackdhouse said:
DTC has it in favor of the AJ Brown side, 83.6 - 62, or roughly a free middle 1st (or a premium to get Mahomes if you wanna think of it that way)

Hindery's April column has it as 92 - 58 in favor of the Brown side.

KTC has it as mostly even, but they incorporate value for clearing a roster spot. As much as I have lobbied for that over time, especially in FFPC, I think they have the juice turned on too high here. But nevertheless they call it fair

dynastyprocess.com has it in favor of the Brown side as well, 11074 - 9831.

My own values place it as 95 - 62 in favor of the Brown side.

All sources place a premium on acquiring Mahomes. I am *not* an AJ Brown stan. I have one share and have been trying to move him. I'm not the biggest Z Wilson fan either but his value might double by this time next year if he makes even a modest developmental leap. And 2.01 got me Jefferson two years ago, it isn't chopped liver, neither is 2.03. 

I have Mahomes in a few SF leagues and whenever someone has come after him I have replied with "it would take a Godfather offer." This AJ Brown deal isn't that for me. I wouldn't do it. But it is certainly fair. And not that it matters a ton, but I see *tons* of comments in here all the time about how "I don't play SuperFlex but..." - just something to chew on no big deal.
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KTC doesn't put a premium on just for roster spots.  It's to prevent stacking lessor value to add up to a number that represents a greater player than it would in the real world.  Which has been a huge problem in trade calculators for years.  It's meant so you can't just stack up 6 third round picks for Josh Allen in a superflex league (which it actually has as a fair trade prior to the value adjustment).

DTC and Hindery's trade chart just simply don't work in 5 for 1 deals.

Hindery's chart says 5 third round picks for DK Metcalf is fair.

It says Gabe Davis + Michael Thomas + Christian Kirk + Robert Woods = Patrick Mahomes (superflex)

Those calcs just can't handle that kind of trade.  Them having that trade heavily in favor of the AJB side is just more evidence of that.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
to me, this is the crux. It’s not a terrible deal, nor is it particularly “unfair” (I ran it through a couple calcs, and it wasn’t that far off on either)

But if I’m dealing Mahomes, which I actually did do last year, it would take an offer I couldn’t refuse.

Mahomes makes the math a little bit irrelevant. He’s one of the top dynasty SF assets, and that’s not completely baked into the pricing of the trade calcs.

So to be an offer that I considered “a good price” for Mahomes, it actually needs to be imbalanced. I expect an overpay for Mahomes because he’s hands-down the best asset in this trade. ABJ isn’t close to Mahomes value in SF, and the rest of the picks didn’t make it so. And Zach Wilson (another player I roster in SF) is a nice asset, who might double in value. But it still wouldn’t get it done if someone offered me that for Mahomes.

This deal is perfect example of why people don’t like trade calcs, IMO. It’s “fair on paper” but still not close to fair, in terms of acquiring a top 3 dynasty asset like Mahomes.
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That is the thing, though, it *is* imbalanced. If we changed the names from Brown/Wilson to other names in the same ADP range at those positions, *maybe* it moves the needle for me. 

Also, another way that a lot of people like to think of this is instead of calcs (which I was just using to show this deal isn't crazy) is to look at startup comps. Mahomes is ~1.02, Brown is anywhere from early 2nd to mid 3rd, and then Wilson is around 5th/6th/7th round somewhere. I just did three SF startups this month. Equivalent of 2.01 is something around the 9th/10th/11th round. An early 2nd startup plus say a 5th and a 10th to move to 1.02? I wouldn't do it but I don't think it is nuts. I just took Mahomes at 1.03 in one of them and the most I wanted to move back was late 1st when I advertised the pick. No bites though.

Side note I try hard to never sell someone on a deal by quoting calcs. The only time I ever bring it up is when I want to show something as fair or reasonable. They all have disclaimers about how to not use them as gospel in anyway. 

 
barackdhouse said:
You didn't say it wasn't fair but others did. No biggie. And no there won't be a Jefferson there this year. Pittman and Gibson were also there at that point. E Moore last year. Waddle went 2.01 in a couple SF last year as well. There are usually valuable players there but 2.01 gets referred to as a 2nd rounder (because duh) but it is really a premium pick, or at least in my experience in SF. I doubt this happens this year, but last year *lots* of early 2nd round picks that were OTC or close to it got moved for future 1sts. I wonder if this would look different if it were referred to as 1.13 and 1.15, kind of like how things cost $2.99 instead of $3.00?

Anyway it wasn't even my deal. I don't think anyone is offbase to say they don't like it. Just making the point it is more than equitable.
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You aren't wrong.  On paper, it is fair but hard to come by Mahomes.  The other assets are out there.  I have definitely seen much worse and those assets aren't garbage by any means.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
KTC doesn't put a premium on just for roster spots.  It's to prevent stacking lessor value to add up to a number that represents a greater player than it would in the real world.  Which has been a huge problem in trade calculators for years.  It's meant so you can't just stack up 6 third round picks for Josh Allen in a superflex league (which it actually has as a fair trade prior to the value adjustment).

DTC and Hindery's trade chart just simply don't work in 5 for 1 deals.

Hindery's chart says 5 third round picks for DK Metcalf is fair.

It says Gabe Davis + Michael Thomas + Christian Kirk + Robert Woods = Patrick Mahomes (superflex)

Those calcs just can't handle that kind of trade.  Them having that trade heavily in favor of the AJB side is just more evidence of that.
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That is correct. I thought I said that but maybe not. KTC adjust for premiums on studs as well as clearing roster spots. And they have it as very close.

The other calcs all have disclaimers about how they shouldn't be used in any kind of rigid fashion. They are meant to be milestone estimates of market consensus. They all say that. But I mean it is rare that I have ever seen so many people come out against a trade that is actually more than fair on paper. Typically those trades don't look good on paper either.

This isn't a 5 for 1 though. It is Brown and Wilson for Mahomes with some decent draft picks thrown in. It is really a 2 for 1. I don't think the gap between Brown and Mahomes is as large as some of you think.

What if it was Lamb and Malik Willis? They are going in roughly the same spots. I think this has more to do with (perhaps justified) hate for Brown and Wilson than about the value.

Which is fine. My only point is the value is ok. That's it.

 
barackdhouse said:
That is the thing, though, it *is* imbalanced. If we changed the names from Brown/Wilson to other names in the same ADP range at those positions, *maybe* it moves the needle for me. 

Also, another way that a lot of people like to think of this is instead of calcs (which I was just using to show this deal isn't crazy) is to look at startup comps. Mahomes is ~1.02, Brown is anywhere from early 2nd to mid 3rd, and then Wilson is around 5th/6th/7th round somewhere. I just did three SF startups this month. Equivalent of 2.01 is something around the 9th/10th/11th round. An early 2nd startup plus say a 5th and a 10th to move to 1.02? I wouldn't do it but I don't think it is nuts. I just took Mahomes at 1.03 in one of them and the most I wanted to move back was late 1st when I advertised the pick. No bites though.
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sure, but it’s not a “godfather offer” either. 

I flipped CEH for a top 4 2023 1st, so In effect I received Wilson, Higgins, 2x 2023 1sts, and a 2022 1st. 

That was an offer I couldn’t refuse.

AJB doesn’t do it for me. I like AJB, too. 

barackdhouse said:
Side note I try hard to never sell someone on a deal by quoting calcs. The only time I ever bring it up is when I want to show something as fair or reasonable. They all have disclaimers about how to not use them as gospel in anyway. 
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Agree with that take. I have a couple league mates who live by them, so to me, it’s something to exploit. 

 
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barackdhouse said:
That is correct. I thought I said that but maybe not. KTC adjust for premiums on studs as well as clearing roster spots. And they have it as very close.

The other calcs all have disclaimers about how they shouldn't be used in any kind of rigid fashion. They are meant to be milestone estimates of market consensus. They all say that. But I mean it is rare that I have ever seen so many people come out against a trade that is actually more than fair on paper. Typically those trades don't look good on paper either.

This isn't a 5 for 1 though. It is Brown and Wilson for Mahomes with some decent draft picks thrown in. It is really a 2 for 1. I don't think the gap between Brown and Mahomes is as large as some of you think.

What if it was Lamb and Malik Willis? They are going in roughly the same spots. I think this has more to do with (perhaps justified) hate for Brown and Wilson than about the value.

Which is fine. My only point is the value is ok. That's it.
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Your point is valid.  I wouldn't like it if it was Lamb/Willis either.  Still feels like a 1st rounder light for Mahomes.  Or the other QB would have to be better than Wilson to me by a significant margin.  Just my thoughts but you aren't wrong.  If rebuilding this will help but better hit those picks.  I think this would look better in a deeper draft too.

 
TVT 0 N S T A said:
I'd take what you got vs what you gave by a mile.  In fact, I am not sure why anyone would give this up to someone continuously contending.  I think the opposing person should have been fine in this trade without the 1.05 this year. 
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He just absolutely needs a RB and in the last 2 years the top 8 picks have had 7 RBs and 1 WR (Chase).  So the top 3 RBs will be gone well before he picked at 5.  Not saying it is right but that is how I was able to get that.

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
He just absolutely needs a RB and in the last 2 years the top 8 picks have had 7 RBs and 1 WR (Chase).  So the top 3 RBs will be gone well before he picked at 5.  Not saying it is right but that is how I was able to get that.
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I completely understand desperate times make for desperate owners, but he just gave up a probable stud RB in '23 draft for a Kenneth Walker/Breece Hall or worse.  Good on you for making this guy pony up, but I think he kicks himself the next 4 years for making this deal because it is an overpay.  

 
barackdhouse said:
That is correct. I thought I said that but maybe not. KTC adjust for premiums on studs as well as clearing roster spots. And they have it as very close.

The other calcs all have disclaimers about how they shouldn't be used in any kind of rigid fashion. They are meant to be milestone estimates of market consensus. They all say that. But I mean it is rare that I have ever seen so many people come out against a trade that is actually more than fair on paper. Typically those trades don't look good on paper either.

This isn't a 5 for 1 though. It is Brown and Wilson for Mahomes with some decent draft picks thrown in. It is really a 2 for 1. I don't think the gap between Brown and Mahomes is as large as some of you think.

What if it was Lamb and Malik Willis? They are going in roughly the same spots. I think this has more to do with (perhaps justified) hate for Brown and Wilson than about the value.

Which is fine. My only point is the value is ok. That's it.
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Imo, the gap is larger because of the positions of each. WR is the easiest position to replace or find replacement production. For me, Brown is not heads-and-shoulders above other WRs as a difference maker. Elite QB in SF is on the opposite end. The downtier from Mahomes to Z Wilson is a huge bet on Wilson being able to make the step up to high end QB2 range (which I am hopeful of) but the risk is all on the package side and I wouldn't have made the move for an upgrade at WR. Freeing up roster spots is a big deal as well and not often considered.

Team context is required to really have a full view. If the Mahomes side is rebuilding, this looks better, although the picks are not high enough, imo. A 1st would look much better in the deal. Hopefully, the team getting the package works to make other deals with the cache of assets acquired. I think it's definitely a win for the side acquiring Mahomes with the only way for the package side to make it a win-win is if Wilson progresses and a couple of the picks turn into lineup quality players.

 
Caught me a bird myself

14 team PPR 1.5 TE

I traded pick 1.12 for a 2023 1st from a team that finished as the 10th place team last year.

I came in 3rd place last year but have lost Waller and Tyreek as part of 2023 1st collection (Now have 4 2023 1st) so trying to compete will be tough this year but I will give it a go.

 
Dez said:
Caught me a bird myself

14 team PPR 1.5 TE

I traded pick 1.12 for a 2023 1st from a team that finished as the 10th place team last year.

I came in 3rd place last year but have lost Waller and Tyreek as part of 2023 1st collection (Now have 4 2023 1st) so trying to compete will be tough this year but I will give it a go.
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Robbery. 

 
FFPC 12team 1QB league

gave: Sermon

got: 2023 2nd (likely mid)

the other team offered it to me out of the blue and I wasn’t expecting it at all (not shopping Sermon since I assume he’s generally dead weight to most).  Sermon was around my 15th or 16th keeper in this Keep 16 format. Sure, I drafted him in the mid 1st this past year, and this offer made me check all news sources for Eli Mitchell injury news or something like that to understand why he wanted Sermon (he doesn’t own any SF RBs), but I don’t think I could’ve passed up this chance to "sell high" ;)  

 
joey said:
FFPC 12team 1QB league

gave: Sermon

got: 2023 2nd (likely mid)

the other team offered it to me out of the blue and I wasn’t expecting it at all (not shopping Sermon since I assume he’s generally dead weight to most).  Sermon was around my 15th or 16th keeper in this Keep 16 format. Sure, I drafted him in the mid 1st this past year, and this offer made me check all news sources for Eli Mitchell injury news or something like that to understand why he wanted Sermon (he doesn’t own any SF RBs), but I don’t think I could’ve passed up this chance to "sell high" ;)  
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Seems like a fair price. I’d give up Sermon for that pick. 

that said, I do believe Sermon will get a shot at some point. There’s a greater than zero chance he could be the more valuable piece here long term. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Seems like a fair price. I’d give up Sermon for that pick. 

that said, I do believe Sermon will get a shot at some point. There’s a greater than zero chance he could be the more valuable piece here long term. 
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Yeah, I hesitated a bit on that for sure but I think I’m *this close* to a total rebuild in this league and might sell my last 2 Win Now pieces in Tyreek and Mark Andrews in that league for 2023 1sts to complete the process. 

 
joey said:
FFPC 12team 1QB league

gave: Sermon

got: 2023 2nd (likely mid)

the other team offered it to me out of the blue and I wasn’t expecting it at all (not shopping Sermon since I assume he’s generally dead weight to most).  Sermon was around my 15th or 16th keeper in this Keep 16 format. Sure, I drafted him in the mid 1st this past year, and this offer made me check all news sources for Eli Mitchell injury news or something like that to understand why he wanted Sermon (he doesn’t own any SF RBs), but I don’t think I could’ve passed up this chance to "sell high" ;)  
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Snap accept. 

 
mzkp54 said:
12’team PPR SF. Full Rebuild. 

Gave: Toney, 1.03, 2.10

Got: Metcalf

still have picks 1.02, 1.06, 1.09, 1.10, 2.02, 2.12
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Seems fair on both sides. I do like the idea of moving some of your many 22 1sts for young talent. Imo, that strategy of acquiring 1sts during the season to flip them for established young talent near the draft is the shark way to rebuild. 

 
mzkp54 said:
12’team PPR SF. Full Rebuild. 

Gave: Toney, 1.03, 2.10

Got: Metcalf

still have picks 1.02, 1.06, 1.09, 1.10, 2.02, 2.12
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Toney could potentially be a zero with his current trajectory. If the 1.03 was 1.02 I would feel a little better knowing that the top two RBs would be available. I don’t love this draft and think the Toney is too much of a gamble….give me DK by a pretty good amount.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Toney could potentially be a zero with his current trajectory. If the 1.03 was 1.02 I would feel a little better knowing that the top two RBs would be available. I don’t love this draft and think the Toney is too much of a gamble….give me DK by a pretty good amount.
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I was actually surprised at the people taking the 1.03. I get that right now the QB situation is grim, but Metcalf is an established stud while the other side carries more risk.

 
12 team SF TE Prem is 1.5 PPR start 11, pretty large deal...

Gave Javonte Williams, Davante Adams, 1.06, Irv Smith and Tyler Conklin

Got Mark Andrews, Jaylen Waddle, Austin Ekeler, 2023 2nd round pick.

I was going to have to start irv or higbee at TE and I like fixing TE in prem leagues for the long term.  I think Javonte and Andrews are really close in this format.  Adams probably outscores Waddle this year but Waddle should be good.  I like Ekeler better than 1.06 in this draft.  Irv and Conklin for a 23 2nd felt fair to me.

Safeleague format, SF 2 TE PPR start 10

Give 1.08, 2.01, 2.04 4.01

Get Diontae Johnson, 2.06 2.08 and 4.10

I like getting Johnson here and am happy to slide back some in round 2.  2.01 could be a day 1 WR but other than that the rest are day 2 WR's, Day 2 QB's, and Day 2 and 3 RB's, so 2.04-2.08 feels pretty flat.  

Safeleagues same as above 6 pt passing TD - 4INT

Gave Lamar, a 23 1st from a team that isn't mine, my 23 3rd

Got Mahomes and a 23 4th

In this format I love Mahomes, I still have my own 23 1st.

Can't wait for rookie drafts in a couple weeks now!

 
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