Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Very true. Andy Reid tricked a ton of people calling CEH better than Brian Westbrook. What a joke. I took JT over him.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I agree it was steep. I don't like to predict early, but this to me is one of the worst 3 teams in the league. In this league if you are bottom 6 you go into a lottery for equal chance at each position. So having a bottom 6 pick gives me another shot at 1.01.Jonesin For Some Football said:
I didn't want to give up 2 early 2nds on top of 1.10. I offered 1.10, a mid 2nd, and early 3rd for 2023 1st and he countered with this. I accepted since I was more interested in acquiring another 1st than haggling over that additional second rounder.
This brings my 2023 1sts for this league to 6 now.
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jwsbowler
Footballguy
Same contract dynasty I posted before, and our rookie draft started today...
Team 1: gave Lockett, Goedert, Palmer, 4.06
Team 2: gave Gallup, Knox, 4.09.......... Team 1 wanted to get younger and easier on contracts
another:
Team A: 1.03
Team B: 1.06, 2023 late 2nd (team has not missed playoffs ever)
Team 1: gave Lockett, Goedert, Palmer, 4.06
Team 2: gave Gallup, Knox, 4.09.......... Team 1 wanted to get younger and easier on contracts
another:
Team A: 1.03
Team B: 1.06, 2023 late 2nd (team has not missed playoffs ever)
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
That is nice. I have 3 1sts and 4 2nds and would like more 1sts. I don't blame you for it, especially if you are sure he won't make the playoffs and that gives you equal lottery odds. I get it and can get behind it. Sometimes we have to overpay for the things we want.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m of the same mentality. I don’t hate any player. I evaluate them and I’m either high on them for their ability, opportunity, or both, or I’m not.
RoJo at his ADP represents a very good value for his expected opportunity. CEH at his ADP does not.
I believe that other poster sees a “CEH redemption arc” storyline, where he comes out and takes over that backfield. I just don’t see a path to that.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Even if CEH becomes FF flex-worthy, that’s just an all-time terrible draft blunder.Jonesin For Some Football said:
imagine last year’s Chiefs team with Taylor. At the worst, they slow down the game enough to get past the Bengals. At best? Lock for a ring.
jabarony
Footballguy
What's CEH's ADP? I just took him in the 8th of a SF startup. Not sure if that's above or below ADP, but I figure it's worth a shot. Obviously no one else stood out at that point in the draft, either. I'm hoping for solid, if unspectacular, RB2 production for a few years.
Paired him with J. Taylor, finally fufilling my 2020 fantasy!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
8th round in AF startup seems like a decent value. I don’t have an issue with that. Depending on league size, that’s what, ~100th overall?
If he gives you RB3/Flex-worthy production you’re getting good return. Anything more is a bonus.
lol @ the bolded.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well this is a timely update:
”The Athletic's Nate Taylor considers Ronald Jones a "legit candidate" to earn the Chiefs' starting job over Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
That's if RoJo "has an exceptional camp." You are forgiven if you are tired of reading Jones hype every pad-less practice season, but Chiefs coach Andy Reid said in March Jones could be a "major part" of the offense. It has as much to do with CEH as RoJo, as the 2020 first-rounder has yet to prove himself on either early downs or in the passing game. Jones will not be a candidate for the third-down role, though Jerick McKinnon will be in that mix. If Jones could make even slightly fewer mistakes than he did in Tampa, he could end up the mail carrier for one of the league's most explosive offenses.”
dipandglide
Footballguy
Haters everywhere and lots of people have bailed. CEH has been decent when playing. He had >1k yards his rookie year with missed games and has a career average >4 ypc. We're talking about a 23 year old RB in a high powered offense. My money is on high RB2 numbers in PPR if healthy and if TD's go his way he creeps into RB1 territory.rockaction said:
The news that he had offseason surgery in '21 and lost a lot of weight says a lot about last year. He wasn't right. I'm buying the chiefs RB1/pass catching back all day at these prices. So what if I whiff. He's cheap.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He also played behind an unbelievably poor OL in 2020. Remember how bad they got handled by the Bucs in the SB? I mean I realize they had injuries but CEH had very little room to operate during the reg season as well.
And last year I chalk up to the gall bladder surgery. IDK he is slipping so far it seems like a slam. Especially in PPR.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Tis that time of year!
HSG, how can you annoint Rojo after years of mediocrity? You're hating on CEH for the same thing except he's actually been injured and has reason for being mediocre. What gives?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s pretty easy when RoJo has a top 11 season under his belt as recently as 2 seasons ago; while CEH has been absolutely mediocre his entire short career.
Jones is faster, stronger, has better burst & vision. He is a better RB.
I don’t “hate on” CEH. I describe what I see with CEH, which isn’t good. He’s not a good fit in that offense, and despite multiple opportunities he has failed at what Reid wants him to do.
I’ve been entirely consistent on both players for years now. And immediately after the acquisition, I suggested what current reports are now describing - that RoJo has an opportunity to take the reigns of this offense, while CEH is relegated to a breather back/receiving role. And with McKinnon now in the fold, even that’s in jeopardy.
Just calling it like I see it. Maybe I’m right. There’s still time for me to be wrong. Wouldn’t be the 1st or last time.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Describing people who make observations as “haters” is lame. HTH.
CEH isn’t creeping into RB1 territory. He’s failed at the receiving back role. His longest run is like 30 yards. Linebackers regularly catch him from behind.
You’ll be lucky if he creeps into RB2 territory. That’s a far more realistic goal.
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DangerMonkey
Footballguy
I must be really missing something on the RoJo/CEH debate.
G RuA RuY Y/Ru RuTd Rec ReY Y/Re ReTd Re/G To/G RuY/G ReY/G ToY/G Y/To TD/G Fp/G
RoJo 55 488 2174 4.45 18 76 571 7.51 1 1.38 10.25 39.53 10.38 49.91 4.87 0.35 7.06
CEH 23 300 1320 4.4 8 55 426 7.74 3 2.39 15.43 57.39 18.52 75.91 4.92 0.48 10.46
Over their careers, in non PPR
RoJo has .05 more yards per carry.
CEH has .05 more yards per touch, 26 more Ru+Re yards per game, .13 more TDs per game and 3.4 more fantasy points per game.
Throw another 1.01 ppg in for CEH if you play PPR.
Yeah, he's been injured quite a bit, but when he plays he has been a far better option, and I think the KC offense as a whole plays better when he's in the game.
G RuA RuY Y/Ru RuTd Rec ReY Y/Re ReTd Re/G To/G RuY/G ReY/G ToY/G Y/To TD/G Fp/G
RoJo 55 488 2174 4.45 18 76 571 7.51 1 1.38 10.25 39.53 10.38 49.91 4.87 0.35 7.06
CEH 23 300 1320 4.4 8 55 426 7.74 3 2.39 15.43 57.39 18.52 75.91 4.92 0.48 10.46
Over their careers, in non PPR
RoJo has .05 more yards per carry.
CEH has .05 more yards per touch, 26 more Ru+Re yards per game, .13 more TDs per game and 3.4 more fantasy points per game.
Throw another 1.01 ppg in for CEH if you play PPR.
Yeah, he's been injured quite a bit, but when he plays he has been a far better option, and I think the KC offense as a whole plays better when he's in the game.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
YPC is a very misleading stat to compare them.
Look at RoJo’s 2020 season. In 13 games started he was a top 11 RB. Had 1200+ All purpose yards and 8 TD. Including a 98 yard rushing TD.
CEH career long run is 31 yards. He’s never scored a breakaway TD, he failed to punch it in at the stripe on 4 straight carries & was never used at the GL again.
So yeah, you seem to be missing that.
DangerMonkey
Footballguy
Funny, YPC is the only thing RoJo seemed to have an advantage in. Statistically CEH has been better per touch and better per game in nearly every category over his short career. Even looking at just the last 2 "good years" for RoJo, he still loses out to CEH in every per game number and is only .02 yds better per touch.
Oh yeah, and CEH fumbles less as well.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Only if you’re not watching them run, sure:
we’ll see what happens. CEH has never sniffed a 13 game stretch like RoJo’s 2020.
As for the fumbles, Jones was never a fumbler in college - they just had a zero tolerance for it in TB. Just not when Lenny fumbled. Then it was all good.
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Bolded seems like a disconnect.
Really, and I said this a long time ago in this thread, their numbers on a per touch and per target basis are so stunningly similar it's kind of silly to even bring it up. ROJO's slightly better on YPC and catch % and CEH slightly better on yards per reception and per target and every single one of those categories it's so razor thin as to truly be splitting hairs.
Major difference in the two in the running game is ROJO's seen about 2.5 times as many 8 man boxes as CEH has over the last two years. I believe no one has seen less as a percentage then CEH since he came into the league and it's hard to say he made the defenses pay for selling out to stop the passing game and that's my major worry with him holding onto the main rushing gig.
DangerMonkey
Footballguy
Only if you’re not watching them run, sure:
we’ll see what happens. CEH has never sniffed a 13 game stretch like RoJo’s 2020.
As for the fumbles, Jones was never a fumbler in college - they just had a zero tolerance for it in TB. Just not when Lenny fumbled. Then it was all good.
So in RoJo's "magical" 2020 season he managed to outperform a rookie CEH by .82 ppg standard and .05 ppg ppr while working behind the 5th best O-Line in the league. CEH had the 11th best line that year.
Code:
PPG PPG (PPR)
2020 CEH 10.77 13.54
2020 RoJo 11.59 13.59DangerMonkey
Footballguy
If we look at 4 years for Rojo and 2 for CEH, CEH is better per touch and per game.
If we throw out RoJo's worst 2 years and just look at 2020 and 2021, RoJo is negligibly better per touch and still lags per game.
Like I said their per touch numbers are so similar in everything it seems like a waste of time bringing it up.
As for per game sure, but let's not pretend if ROJO had Darrell Williams as his running mate and CEH had Fournette as his this is how it would have played out. That's a pretty hollow argument to me.
DangerMonkey
Footballguy
My point with the per touch numbers is exactly that. They are so similar...RoJo is not head and shoulders better and in most comparisons, is worse.
BTW, Rojo has always run behind a higher rated line than CEH and in 2020, Lenny was nothing in the regular season averaging only 3.8 ypc on 97 attempts. Not like he was keeping Jones off the field.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Except of course for the eye test. Because games are played on the field and not in the stat sheet.
CEH runs up the backs of his OL or tries to bounce to the outside with poor results.
And while CEH’s YPC looks good on paper, he’s not good for much more than his YPC because he lacks breakaway speed, which RoJo has.
Go watch CEH’s career best run of 31 yards. .
Then watch this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=trblnk5mHoQ
Y'all living in the stat sheets are missing a ton of nuance and drawing poor conclusions.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In this comparison, watching the two play seems like the best way to figure out which is the better running back.
Andy Reid seems to be seeing the same thing. We’ll see if it translates to a larger role for RoJo.
I’m not sure it will, but the reporting is interesting at least.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I've heard this mentioned a bunch and I'm sure it's true but I feel like I haven't seen this. What I've seen is really poor OL play where as soon as he gets the ball there are guys keyed in on him either in the backfield or plugging gaps. If he really was running against non-stacked boxes then that makes me wonder what I was looking at. Maybe my memory is foggy but I'd feel better if I saw some examples of this. I'm *not* saying it isn't true just that I am skeptical about that take.
dipandglide
Footballguy
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-carry-target-value
This is why I can't jump on the Rojo train. I'd much rather take guys like Sony later in drafts. This would be a different discussion if CEH was a top 3-4 round startup pick. I just got him at 8.03 and have been acquiring for late 1st, eary 2nd value.
Also, last I checked CEH was atop the depth chart. That's all I care about.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Reportedly the chiefs had one of the best run blocking OL last year. I just read that on one of the sites - gah, forget which. I’ll try to find it.
I’ve seen CEH do it. Skepticism is healthy, he isn’t good between the tackles, and doesn’t seem to hit the hole hard when it’s there.
If he did, I don’t see why Reid wouldn’t keep using him that way instead of bringing in Jones to be a banger.
the irony here is that I 10000% hope I’m wrong about the KC situation, because the one roster I have Ronald Jones on is my complete tear-down/rebuild, and I am trying to lose as many games as possible so that I have the 2023 1.01 to go along with my 5 other 1sts.
A more productive than expected RoJo might force me to trade him or risk winning too many games.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We don’t have a depth chart for 2022 yet. Things change in camp.
Receptions are indeed valuable. Bummer they brought in Jet, a better receiver than CEH.
Mostly it’s a 3-headed mess. If Jones is the early down/short yardage back, and Jet & CEH share receptions (with Kelce, Juju, MVS, and probably also Jones), CEH is gonna have to do a lot more with his receptions than he’s shown in his career so far.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I was talking about 2020. I *think* I mentioned I'd give him a pass for 2021 because of the gall bladder. Don't know how their OL was last year but it wouldn't change the gall bladder take for me.
He is cheaper than he has ever been so I don't need "worth the 1.01 a couple years ago" results to make it worth it to me. RB2 is fine. He absolutely has to prove it this year though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh, yeah - I mean like I said earlier, if he’s ~100th overall in redraft and I can get him as my RB3, he’s probably worth a flier.
His Dynasty value seems shot unless and until he proves otherwise.
Owners are either holding to see if there’s a dead cat bounce to deal him off, or some true believers seem to think he can come out gangbusters his 3rd year. Given the presence of RoJo & jet, I’m skeptical that happens. But anything’s possible.’
I sold for a 1st after his 2 big games early last year, which will probably be 1.01 - no ragrets. I don't expect him to ever be worth that again.
But we all have our takes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Can we just agree CEH and Jones have both been underachievers during their careers to date?
Lehigh98
Footballguy
In a 2008 auction I planned on buying both the Panthers hot new rookie they just took 13th overall* and the existing RB just to have as backup if he didn't hit immediately. Someone nominated DeAngelo Williams first and I got him pretty cheap, maybe $7 out of a $200 budget. By the time Jonathan Stewart came up for auction, I couldn't afford him. I immediately tried to pivot and sell DeAngelo Williams for whatever I could get to free up the roster spot so I could go in another direction but had no takers at any price. He went on to 1,515 rushing and led the league in rushing TDs with 18 along with 22 catches for 121 and 2 more TDs. So after winning the league, I just had to laugh and realize you can never be sure on your predictions and sometimes you just have to get lucky.
*BTW, 5(!) RBs in the first round that year, my how times have changed.
*BTW, 5(!) RBs in the first round that year, my how times have changed.
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DropKick
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - throw McKinnon in there and maybe even Derek Gore and "no thanks" on any of them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That was my original call. Especially after Jet signed.
That said, evaluating value I’m going for the dude who gets early downs and is likely go get the ball at the stripe.
Chiefs should still be a high-powered offense. It’s worth having whomever emerges as the lead dog.
My bet is on RoJo. Reporting seems to indicate that’s how it’s shaping up, but time will tell.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
These numbers don't mean a bunch and when they are this close the eye test makes a huge difference. CEH isn't as explosive, isn't a goal line back, and RoJo probably got less chance than he should of in TB. I agree that CEH is cheap enough to take a chance on at the price but he is not a valuable asset. He also can't seem to break tackles or score in the NFL so he is going to disappoint if anyone thinks his ceiling is anything more than a mid-low end RB2. If this guy was drafted in the 3rd round he might not even have a job in the NFL right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
this is my favorite trade ever because it doesn’t involve R Jones or CEH
cmon. FBG wouldn’t be the same if we didn’t have our semi-annual RoJo dust up.
I'd be surprised at anything less especially when you look at their various skill sets.
Said this before in some thread but if I was ranking them as pure runners I'd rank it: ROJO>CEH>Mckinnon and then totally flip that if I was ranking them in terms of best receiving threats.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
In 1 QB, I take the Najee side easily here. I like Herbert and Wilson could be good but RBs are too hard to come by.
I got a Najee/Herbert FFPC 1 QB team and if I lost Najee I'd be crushed. If I lost Herbert it would stink but I found him on the waiver wire like most of my QB's and feel like I could find another one if need be.
So like the others have said already I'd prefer the Najee side. Now in in maybe as soon as 2 years the value could swing big time to the Herbert/Wilson side and not crazy to think in 4-5 years Najee could be toast while Herbert and Wilson are in their primes. But I still could not stomach losing Najee and getting a QB as my best piece back.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Blick
Footballguy
Agreed. I don't find this as particularly close. Herbert is nice, but is he really going to be a difference maker in a 1 QB league. Wilson is a complete wild card. I'd need a sure fire player, other than QB, to move Najee.
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