Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Very true. Andy Reid tricked a ton of people calling CEH better than Brian Westbrook. What a joke. I took JT over him.And so did a lot of fantasy players. Eek.
Very true. Andy Reid tricked a ton of people calling CEH better than Brian Westbrook. What a joke. I took JT over him.And so did a lot of fantasy players. Eek.
I agree it was steep. I don't like to predict early, but this to me is one of the worst 3 teams in the league. In this league if you are bottom 6 you go into a lottery for equal chance at each position. So having a bottom 6 pick gives me another shot at 1.01.Jonesin For Some Football said:I like the 1st one for sure. I'd probably take that for Barkley if I wasn't trying to win now but I do think he could have a big year. I do think paid a lot for that 23 1st though. Especially not knowing where it is. Not sure I'm a huge fan of that move but get it and have no problem swinging for the fences.
Just taking a guess at what the previous poster said about a “CEH storyline.”Hot Sauce Guy said:What about 2020? He was the same plodder then without any extreme weight loss.
Also if he lost all that weight, why was he still slow?
That is nice. I have 3 1sts and 4 2nds and would like more 1sts. I don't blame you for it, especially if you are sure he won't make the playoffs and that gives you equal lottery odds. I get it and can get behind it. Sometimes we have to overpay for the things we want.I agree it was steep. I don't like to predict early, but this to me is one of the worst 3 teams in the league. In this league if you are bottom 6 you go into a lottery for equal chance at each position. So having a bottom 6 pick gives me another shot at 1.01.
I didn't want to give up 2 early 2nds on top of 1.10. I offered 1.10, a mid 2nd, and early 3rd for 2023 1st and he countered with this. I accepted since I was more interested in acquiring another 1st than haggling over that additional second rounder.
This brings my 2023 1sts for this league to 6 now.
I’m of the same mentality. I don’t hate any player. I evaluate them and I’m either high on them for their ability, opportunity, or both, or I’m not.Just taking a guess at what the previous poster said about a “CEH storyline.”
Regarding CEH himself, I don’t hate players, I hate adp At the right price and right draft and league, I will take a stab at him. I prefer RoJO at current adp.
I’m all for getting Higgins at that price.12 team PPR dynasty league. Just made this trade
Gave: Akers/Henderson
Got: Higgins/Gus Edwards (I have Dobbins)
Even if CEH becomes FF flex-worthy, that’s just an all-time terrible draft blunder.Jonesin For Some Football said:To think....they took him over Taylor.
What's CEH's ADP? I just took him in the 8th of a SF startup. Not sure if that's above or below ADP, but I figure it's worth a shot. Obviously no one else stood out at that point in the draft, either. I'm hoping for solid, if unspectacular, RB2 production for a few years.I’m of the same mentality. I don’t hate any player. I evaluate them and I’m either high on them for their ability, opportunity, or both, or I’m not.
RoJo at his ADP represents a very good value for his expected opportunity. CEH at his ADP does not.
I believe that other poster sees a “CEH redemption arc” storyline, where he comes out and takes over that backfield. I just don’t see a path to that.
8th round in AF startup seems like a decent value. I don’t have an issue with that. Depending on league size, that’s what, ~100th overall?What's CEH's ADP? I just took him in the 8th of a SF startup. Not sure if that's above or below ADP, but I figure it's worth a shot. Obviously no one else stood out at that point in the draft, either. I'm hoping for solid, if unspectacular, RB2 production for a few years.
Paired him with J. Taylor, finally fufilling my 2020 fantasy!
Well this is a timely update:Just taking a guess at what the previous poster said about a “CEH storyline.”
Regarding CEH himself, I don’t hate players, I hate adp At the right price and right draft and league, I will take a stab at him. I prefer RoJO at current adp.
Haters everywhere and lots of people have bailed. CEH has been decent when playing. He had >1k yards his rookie year with missed games and has a career average >4 ypc. We're talking about a 23 year old RB in a high powered offense. My money is on high RB2 numbers in PPR if healthy and if TD's go his way he creeps into RB1 territory.rockaction said:What's the storyline, in your estimation?
He also played behind an unbelievably poor OL in 2020. Remember how bad they got handled by the Bucs in the SB? I mean I realize they had injuries but CEH had very little room to operate during the reg season as well.Haters everywhere and lots of people have bailed. CEH has been decent when playing. He had >1k yards his rookie year with missed games and has a career average >4 ypc. We're talking about a 23 year old RB in a high powered offense. My money is on high RB2 numbers in PPR if healthy and if TD's go his way he creeps into RB1 territory.
The news that he had offseason surgery in '21 and lost a lot of weight says a lot about last year. He wasn't right. I'm buying the chiefs RB1/pass catching back all day at these prices. So what if I whiff. He's cheap.
Tis that time of year!Well this is a timely update:
”The Athletic's Nate Taylor considers Ronald Jones a "legit candidate" to earn the Chiefs' starting job over Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
That's if RoJo "has an exceptional camp." You are forgiven if you are tired of reading Jones hype every pad-less practice season, but Chiefs coach Andy Reid said in March Jones could be a "major part" of the offense. It has as much to do with CEH as RoJo, as the 2020 first-rounder has yet to prove himself on either early downs or in the passing game. Jones will not be a candidate for the third-down role, though Jerick McKinnon will be in that mix. If Jones could make even slightly fewer mistakes than he did in Tampa, he could end up the mail carrier for one of the league's most explosive offenses.”
It’s pretty easy when RoJo has a top 11 season under his belt as recently as 2 seasons ago; while CEH has been absolutely mediocre his entire short career.Tis that time of year!
HSG, how can you annoint Rojo after years of mediocrity? You're hating on CEH for the same thing except he's actually been injured and has reason for being mediocre. What gives?
Describing people who make observations as “haters” is lame. HTH.Haters everywhere and lots of people have bailed. CEH has been decent when playing. He had >1k yards his rookie year with missed games and has a career average >4 ypc. We're talking about a 23 year old RB in a high powered offense. My money is on high RB2 numbers in PPR if healthy and if TD's go his way he creeps into RB1 territory.
The news that he had offseason surgery in '21 and lost a lot of weight says a lot about last year. He wasn't right. I'm buying the chiefs RB1/pass catching back all day at these prices. So what if I whiff. He's cheap.
YPC is a very misleading stat to compare them.I must be really missing something on the RoJo/CEH debate.
G RuA RuY Y/Ru RuTd Rec ReY Y/Re ReTd Re/G To/G RuY/G ReY/G ToY/G Y/To TD/G Fp/G
RoJo 55 488 2174 4.45 18 76 571 7.51 1 1.38 10.25 39.53 10.38 49.91 4.87 0.35 7.06
CEH 23 300 1320 4.4 8 55 426 7.74 3 2.39 15.43 57.39 18.52 75.91 4.92 0.48 10.46
Over their careers, in non PPR
RoJo has .05 more yards per carry.
CEH has .05 more yards per touch, 26 more Ru+Re yards per game, .13 more TDs per game and 3.4 more fantasy points per game.
Throw another 1.01 ppg in for CEH if you play PPR.
Yeah, he's been injured quite a bit, but when he plays he has been a far better option, and I think the KC offense as a whole plays better when he's in the game.
Funny, YPC is the only thing RoJo seemed to have an advantage in. Statistically CEH has been better per touch and better per game in nearly every category over his short career. Even looking at just the last 2 "good years" for RoJo, he still loses out to CEH in every per game number and is only .02 yds better per touch.YPC is a very misleading stat to compare them.
Look at RoJo’s 2020 season. In 13 games started he was a top 11 RB. Had 1200+ All purpose yards and 8 TD. Including a 98 yard rushing TD.
CEH career long run is 31 yards. He’s never scored a breakaway TD, he failed to punch it in at the stripe on 4 straight carries & was never used at the GL again.
So yeah, you seem to be missing that.
Only if you’re not watching them run, sure:Funny, YPC is the only thing RoJo seemed to have an advantage in. Statistically CEH has been better per touch and better per game in nearly every category over his short career. Even looking at just the last 2 "good years" for RoJo, he still loses out to CEH in every per game number and is only .02 yds better per touch.
Oh yeah, and CEH fumbles less as well.
Bolded seems like a disconnect.Funny, YPC is the only thing RoJo seemed to have an advantage in. Statistically CEH has been better per touch and better per game in nearly every category over his short career. Even looking at just the last 2 "good years" for RoJo, he still loses out to CEH in every per game number and is only .02 yds better per touch.
Only if you’re not watching them run, sure:
we’ll see what happens. CEH has never sniffed a 13 game stretch like RoJo’s 2020.
As for the fumbles, Jones was never a fumbler in college - they just had a zero tolerance for it in TB. Just not when Lenny fumbled. Then it was all good.
PPG PPG (PPR)
2020 CEH 10.77 13.54
2020 RoJo 11.59 13.59
Bolded seems like a disconnect.
Really, and I said this a long time ago in this thread, their numbers on a per touch and per target basis are so stunningly similar it's kind of silly to even bring it up. ROJO's slightly better on YPC and catch % and CEH slightly better on yards per reception and per target and every single one of those categories it's so razor thin as to truly be splitting hairs.
Major difference in the two in the running game is ROJO's seen about 2.5 times as many 8 man boxes as CEH has over the last two years. I believe no one has seen less as a percentage then CEH since he came into the league and it's hard to say he made the defenses pay for selling out to stop the passing game and that's my major worry with him holding onto the main rushing gig.
Like I said their per touch numbers are so similar in everything it seems like a waste of time bringing it up.If we look at 4 years for Rojo and 2 for CEH, CEH is better per touch and per game.
If we throw out RoJo's worst 2 years and just look at 2020 and 2021, RoJo is negligibly better per touch and still lags per game.
My point with the per touch numbers is exactly that. They are so similar...RoJo is not head and shoulders better and in most comparisons, is worse.Like I said their per touch numbers are so similar in everything it seems like a waste of time bringing it up.
As for per game sure, but let's not pretend if ROJO had Darrell Williams as his running mate and CEH had Fournette as his this is how it would have played out. That's a pretty hollow argument to me.
Except of course for the eye test. Because games are played on the field and not in the stat sheet.If we look at 4 years for Rojo and 2 for CEH, CEH is better per touch and per game.
If we throw out RoJo's worst 2 years and just look at 2020 and 2021, RoJo is negligibly better per touch and still lags per game.
In this comparison, watching the two play seems like the best way to figure out which is the better running back.Like I said their per touch numbers are so similar in everything it seems like a waste of time bringing it up.
As for per game sure, but let's not pretend if ROJO had Darrell Williams as his running mate and CEH had Fournette as his this is how it would have played out. That's a pretty hollow argument to me.
I've heard this mentioned a bunch and I'm sure it's true but I feel like I haven't seen this. What I've seen is really poor OL play where as soon as he gets the ball there are guys keyed in on him either in the backfield or plugging gaps. If he really was running against non-stacked boxes then that makes me wonder what I was looking at. Maybe my memory is foggy but I'd feel better if I saw some examples of this. I'm *not* saying it isn't true just that I am skeptical about that take.CEH runs up the backs of his OL or tries to bounce to the outside with poor results.
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-carry-target-valueNot all touches should be treated equally. There are two different types of touches a running back can garner (a rushing attempt or a reception) and one is worth significantly more than the other for fantasy. For running backs, over the past 10 seasons, a target has been worth 2.74 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues. (A reception, obviously, is worth even more than that.) Even in standard leagues, a target has been worth 1.36 times as much as a carry.
Reportedly the chiefs had one of the best run blocking OL last year. I just read that on one of the sites - gah, forget which. I’ll try to find it.I've heard this mentioned a bunch and I'm sure it's true but I feel like I haven't seen this. What I've seen is really poor OL play where as soon as he gets the ball there are guys keyed in on him either in the backfield or plugging gaps. If he really was running against non-stacked boxes then that makes me wonder what I was looking at. Maybe my memory is foggy but I'd feel better if I saw some examples of this. I'm *not* saying it isn't true just that I am skeptical about that take.
We don’t have a depth chart for 2022 yet. Things change in camp.https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-carry-target-value
This is why I can't jump on the Rojo train. I'd much rather take guys like Sony later in drafts. This would be a different discussion if CEH was a top 3-4 round startup pick. I just got him at 8.03 and have been acquiring for late 1st, eary 2nd value.
Also, last I checked CEH was atop the depth chart. That's all I care about.
I was talking about 2020. I *think* I mentioned I'd give him a pass for 2021 because of the gall bladder. Don't know how their OL was last year but it wouldn't change the gall bladder take for me.Reportedly the chiefs had one of the best run blocking OL last year.
Oh, yeah - I mean like I said earlier, if he’s ~100th overall in redraft and I can get him as my RB3, he’s probably worth a flier.I was talking about 2020. I *think* I mentioned I'd give him a pass for 2021 because of the gall bladder. Don't know how their OL was last year but it wouldn't change the gall bladder take for me.
He is cheaper than he has ever been so I don't need "worth the 1.01 a couple years ago" results to make it worth it to me. RB2 is fine. He absolutely has to prove it this year though.
Or that we get a RBBC that makes it all moot.Can we just agree CEH and Jones have both been underachievers during their careers to date?
Yes - throw McKinnon in there and maybe even Derek Gore and "no thanks" on any of them.Or that we get a RBBC that makes it all moot.
That was my original call. Especially after Jet signed.Or that we get a RBBC that makes it all moot.
Najee side for me.1QB, FFPC, not involved
team 1 gave: Najee
team 2 gave: Justin Herbert, McKissic, Garrett Wilson
this is my favorite trade ever because it doesn’t involve R Jones or CEH1QB, FFPC, not involved
team 1 gave: Najee
team 2 gave: Justin Herbert, McKissic, Garrett Wilson
These numbers don't mean a bunch and when they are this close the eye test makes a huge difference. CEH isn't as explosive, isn't a goal line back, and RoJo probably got less chance than he should of in TB. I agree that CEH is cheap enough to take a chance on at the price but he is not a valuable asset. He also can't seem to break tackles or score in the NFL so he is going to disappoint if anyone thinks his ceiling is anything more than a mid-low end RB2. If this guy was drafted in the 3rd round he might not even have a job in the NFL right now.I must be really missing something on the RoJo/CEH debate.
G RuA RuY Y/Ru RuTd Rec ReY Y/Re ReTd Re/G To/G RuY/G ReY/G ToY/G Y/To TD/G Fp/G
RoJo 55 488 2174 4.45 18 76 571 7.51 1 1.38 10.25 39.53 10.38 49.91 4.87 0.35 7.06
CEH 23 300 1320 4.4 8 55 426 7.74 3 2.39 15.43 57.39 18.52 75.91 4.92 0.48 10.46
Over their careers, in non PPR
RoJo has .05 more yards per carry.
CEH has .05 more yards per touch, 26 more Ru+Re yards per game, .13 more TDs per game and 3.4 more fantasy points per game.
Throw another 1.01 ppg in for CEH if you play PPR.
Yeah, he's been injured quite a bit, but when he plays he has been a far better option, and I think the KC offense as a whole plays better when he's in the game.
this is my favorite trade ever because it doesn’t involve R Jones or CEH
I'd be surprised at anything less especially when you look at their various skill sets.Or that we get a RBBC that makes it all moot.
In 1 QB, I take the Najee side easily here. I like Herbert and Wilson could be good but RBs are too hard to come by.1QB, FFPC, not involved
team 1 gave: Najee
team 2 gave: Justin Herbert, McKissic, Garrett Wilson
1QB, FFPC, not involved
team 1 gave: Najee
team 2 gave: Justin Herbert, McKissic, Garrett Wilson
Agreed. SF & this deal probably swings the other way.I got a Najee/Herbert FFPC 1 QB team and if I lost Najee I'd be crushed. If I lost Herbert it would stink but I found him on the waiver wire like most of my QB's and feel like I could find another one if need be.
So like the others have said already I'd prefer the Najee side. Now in in maybe as soon as 2 years the value could swing big time to the Herbert/Wilson side and not crazy to think in 4-5 years Najee could be toast while Herbert and Wilson are in their primes. But I still could not stomach losing Najee and getting a QB as my best piece back.
Agreed. I don't find this as particularly close. Herbert is nice, but is he really going to be a difference maker in a 1 QB league. Wilson is a complete wild card. I'd need a sure fire player, other than QB, to move Najee.Najee side for me.