Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (31 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
But you’re not, really. Higgins costs less in redraft, and Dynasty in terms of draft capital / trade equity.
Higgins is valued as the top tier of the WR2s.
Seems like a fair price. If you reach/overdraft him or overpay for him *counting* on WR1 numbers, then I agree with you.
But at current price/value he has a little room to grow.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
He isn't rebuilding but he has a great team, plenty of RBs, and no future picks for the next 2 years so was rebuilding capital. He also has JT, Chubb, and Ek as his other 3 RBs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hi, 25 year commish here. This deal wouldn’t even raise a concerned eyebrow for me.
Swift’s “on paper” value is nowhere near his real world value. He’s often listed as the 2nd or 3rd dynasty RB, but when I attempted to move him in my 16 man / 900 players rostered league (where teams are extra desperate for RBs) I couldn’t get anything close to an offer even resembling what the FF sites suggest his value to be.
at a glance, it’s a fair deal. I see no reason to suggest collusion. Lazard could be a WR1 this year - Lenny & Allen are getting older but they’re hardly scrubs.
I won’t even plug this into a calc because I know the calcs will value Swift ridiculously high - but in the RW, fantasy managers are pretty down on him.
Verdict: no collusion.
Last edited by a moderator:
dipandglide
Footballguy
Trade #1 - I love team B's side competing or not. Those firsts offer flexibility and are more liquid assets.
"Both picks will be late for sure" is dangerous thinking. I've had killer teams win the league and then finish bottom three the following year due to injuries and variance. I'm all for trading for future picks from those thinking their picks are "will be late for sure". Future picks are insurance policies.
----------------------
Trade #2 - Van Jefferson side. You can find Gus Edwards on the WW during the season. VJ has a lot of upside on his own and tons more if Kupp/Arob get hurt
dipandglide
Footballguy
12 teams, Bestball, Superflex, PPR
Gave: D. Henry
Got: Kamara
---------------
This seems fair. I like Kamara's longevity chances compared to Henry. Kamara has less wear and tear, offers a great floor/ceiling combo in PPR, and should be fresh coming down the stretch after a likely suspension. He doesn't have as high a ceiling as Henry, but offers enough in that department. Thoughts?
Gave: D. Henry
Got: Kamara
---------------
This seems fair. I like Kamara's longevity chances compared to Henry. Kamara has less wear and tear, offers a great floor/ceiling combo in PPR, and should be fresh coming down the stretch after a likely suspension. He doesn't have as high a ceiling as Henry, but offers enough in that department. Thoughts?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’d take Kamara especially in best ball where you could survive a suspension better.
Tau837
Footballguy
OK, fair enough on several responses saying basically that this is fine.
I don't know what sources you guys use to evaluate player value, but I will point out that:
- Hindery's dynasty value chart has this as 67-46 in favor of the Swift side... significant margin
- Best player in the deal is generally viewed as Swift, and it's not close... I realize an individual owner's mileage will vary here
- I disagree with those dismissing Palmer; IMO he could easily be a top 2 target on the Chargers (read: top 5 passing offense) as soon as next season... and I say this as a Chargers fan... granted it's a dice roll, but very possible
- Average age of the Swift side is 24.5 vs. 27.5 for the Fournette side
Tau837
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I see what Just Win Baby is saying, but it's not egregious enough to where a win-now team might not benefit from the deal. I don't know. I'm sort of a relativist when it comes to trades, anyway. It all has to do with the league, the market, and what you're going for. But as far as absolute value goes? Team A wins this deal by quite a bit, IMO.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Like I said - Swift’s “expert opinion value” is the biggest thing swinging through values of this deal. But while I don’t mind owning Swift on the Dynasty team I took over, if I were a win-now team, I’d see Lenny as a far more reliable/predictable asset for both productivity & durability.
Age is relevant only so far as each owner cares. One can easily win-now (and many see 2-3 year windows) with the older team A.
Finally, a ~30% margin might seem like a lot, but it’s not “collusion a lot”. Im a firm believer that trades don’t have to be perfectly balanced to pass, and collusion is the only actual reason to veto a deal. Bad deals happen. People get fleeced. People voluntarily let themselves get fleeced to acquire a player they love - overpay happens, often. It’s not collusion to make a bad or good deal that takes advantage of the other team. Making mistakes / bad deals is how people learn. It is what it is, but it’s not veto-worthy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I prefer the Swift side (but I’m higher on him than most) but the other side is getting some productive albeit aging players. I can see a “win now” team making that deal. Like Boston said these are all players that have different values to different people. Many in here hate Swift.
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I saw the other comments on this one and I saw where you said Hindery had it. FWIW I also had the Swift side at 67 on the nose in my own points system. I had the other side as 56 though, not quite as disparate. I'd slam the Swift side so dang fast regardless and although I would just never do this deal in the other direction, I can at least imagine what Team B was thinking because I come across owners willing to do stuff like this all the time in a win-now mindframe. And so yeah I kind of really love Palmer in particular but for me *if* I hated Swift (I don't), I would very easily make this trade in the other direction, thinking I'm getting rid of a (very valuable) player I hate, giving up a cheaper one I like (Palmer) and a couple other spare parts for:
The #1 RB on the Bucs
The #1 WR on the (really really good) Chargers who will be throwing a gazillion times a game (Big Mike? Either way)
The #1 WR on Aaron Rodger's team. I actually don't think it will play that way but that is the thought process no?
and a reasonable TE piece in Henry - whatever.
As for collusion, not a chance, I know you're off that I'm just saying it. Seems fair. Try to imagine whatever player you might have a share of somewhere who holds value somewhat similar to Swift, but that you hate. Would you add a couple other pieces to get some win now pieces like that?
Again, I hate it and would never. But I can imagine.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tau837
Footballguy
I think it is interesting to think about the different reactions I might have gotten if I just posted the trade and did not add my opinion of it. With my opinion, I got several responses taking the other perspective (which is fine). I suspect if I didn't post my opinion of the trade, I would have just gotten posts that said they favored the Swift said by a lot or by a little... and probably fewer posts at that. I could be wrong. 
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FFPC standard
Mark andrews, raheem mostert, and Jarvis Landry.
For.
Kenneth walker, Alexander mattison, chase claypool, noah fant, and irv smith
Mark andrews, raheem mostert, and Jarvis Landry.
For.
Kenneth walker, Alexander mattison, chase claypool, noah fant, and irv smith
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Could be rightI think it is interesting to think about the different reactions I might have gotten if I just posted the trade and did not add my opinion of it. With my opinion, I got several responses taking the other perspective (which is fine). I suspect if I didn't post my opinion of the trade, I would have just gotten posts that said they favored the Swift said by a lot or by a little... and probably fewer posts at that. I could be wrong.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Really not a bad return for Andrews. This might hinge on what other TEs I had but even if I didn't have anything behind Andrews I'd still probably smash this. There is too much value there. I am higher than most on Claypool still, fairly bullish on Irv smith, and Walker is obviously the biggest prize, even if he is stuck behind Penny this year. Don't know what to make of Fant but Mattison can probably be flipped.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I’ll take Walker and the other guys upside in standard. I’m higher on Mattison and Claypool than consensus.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well to be fair you used the word “collusion” in your post and that’s what people are thinking is way off. I think you’re right in that you wouldn’t have got a ton of comments otherwise because generally close trades don’t get much traction, it’s the lopsided ones or ones that have a few lightning rod type players.I think it is interesting to think about the different reactions I might have gotten if I just posted the trade and did not add my opinion of it. With my opinion, I got several responses taking the other perspective (which is fine). I suspect if I didn't post my opinion of the trade, I would have just gotten posts that said they favored the Swift said by a lot or by a little... and probably fewer posts at that. I could be wrong.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I'd want more than this for Kupp.Nero said:
joey
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would have posted the exact same thing, save for my comments about collusion: that it’s a fair deal that most calcs will have favoring the Swift side, despite Swift’s actual (“real world”) value being lower.Just Win Baby said:I think it is interesting to think about the different reactions I might have gotten if I just posted the trade and did not add my opinion of it. With my opinion, I got several responses taking the other perspective (which is fine). I suspect if I didn't post my opinion of the trade, I would have just gotten posts that said they favored the Swift said by a lot or by a little... and probably fewer posts at that. I could be wrong.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Should have held out for more, IMO.Nero said:
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I understand anything can happen so hard to say late but both picks are mine even though I wasn't involved in the trade. I have won back to back championships. My roster is Dak, CMC, Barkley, Monty, Mixon, Adams, Evans, Mooney, Ridley, Kelce, and Pitts as my main pieces. I drafted Waddle/Pitts last year, Hall this year, have 3 1sts & 4 2nds next year as well. That team isn't going anywhere any time soon.dipandglide said:
I do agree that it is still a good move for him though. RBs are hard to come by so I would lean towards the Gus side on the 2nd one. I think OBJ is going back to LA as well.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Totally get what you are saying but I think a lot of us agree that Swift is being overvalued in calculators. He has also had problems staying healthy. Plus, if trying to win now, the age thing means nothing.Just Win Baby said:
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I get the idea but this still feels pretty light for Kupp to me.Nero said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
In a year or so he will be happy he did it. However, he woulda been even happier if he got what Kupp is worthNero said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yep - this is pretty much exactly what I was saying.
I recently attempted to deal Swift based on his alleged value.
I’m actually quite high on Swift & believe if he can stay healthy he could actually be worthy of that valuation at some point.
But he’s allegedly worth so much that i figured I might be able to parlay his “on paper” value into a RB + a little extra.
The responses I’d received were pretty similar, “I don’t want Swift, can’t stay healthy, Lions aren’t good, etc”
Personally I feel like he’s got ~80 reception potential (given a healthy season) and a little added bulk should help him between the tackles. Lions are a team on the rise, IMO.
But again - perception becomes reality. Some players get a stigma early on in their career. Swift has only played 2 seasons, yet people treat him like Fragile Fred Taylor for real world valuation.
For what it’s worth, I’m squarely on the Swift side. As @barackdhouse suggested, it’s not as lopsided as you had it, and as I’ve said, for a win-now team, Lenny seems like a less risky, higher floor player in a top offense.
It was an interesting experiment trying to deal Swift. For example, before I set out I checked some calcs just to get a feel for value, and Draft Dominator had Swift worth 289 and Mixon worth 165.
Is Swift ~124 points (45%) more valuable than Mixon?
Which player would a win-now team rather have?
Out of curiosity I just ran Swift Vs Lenny on DD. 289 Vs 134
It’s absurd. And every calc is like this with Swift.
I get where they’re coming from. Age, potential, receptions, etc. Swift may well live up to that. But he hasn’t yet - so any deal involving swift is likely going to look lopsided. FF managers aren’t paying top of the market for him. One JT-type season, with 16 games played & a top 3 finish at the position & we’ll see his RW value spike to match his “on paper” value.
It’s just not there yet. Kind of like Pitts. They’re basically unreadable players. The shareholder will never get full value for them & the buyers will never want to pay full price as they haven’t actually lived up to it yet.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We’ll put. It’s not awful. It’s just a little low. Add a late 1st or early 2nd and it’s a lot closer.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Traded Chase Claypool (he was very WR needy) for
Freiermuth (he owned Knox Schultz and Ertz)
Feel very fortunate he didn't counter asking for more.
Freiermuth (he owned Knox Schultz and Ertz)
Feel very fortunate he didn't counter asking for more.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s a bargain in any format. Is this TE-P?
Even being TE rich, I’m shocked he let ‘Muth go for that.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Regular start 1, 1 ppr for all. I already have Kittle, but preparing for the inevitable decline and could also consider flipping him for a decent starting WR or RB now.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tau837
Footballguy
I get what you are saying, I'm just surprised that there is seemingly such a different view of him (here, at least) than consensus rankings/calculators/ADP.
joey
Footballguy
It is very interesting. I know that I personally see him as a top 10 dynasty RB but not looking to buy due to injury concerns (played 13 games in each of his first 2 seasons). So I was kinda surprised to see him ranked as the THIRD overall RB in FBG dynasty rankings. But then, thinking on it a some more, there’s a bit of a changing of the guard going on with some really consistent, stud RBs getting up their in age a bit or healthy concerns as well or other “stuff” (Henry, CMC, Kamara, Cook, Chubb, Dobbins, Barkeley, AJones) so someone has to be ranked in the top 5 RBs, and I guess Swift can fit that bill as much as any of those other guys. To me, in dynasty, it’s Taylor, Najee, and everyone else right now has some warts or concerns or qualifiers.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Swift just went pick 5 in my startup draft.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t doubt it. I also don’t doubt that there’s a strong likelihood that a few of the teams sitting at 6, 7, 8, 9 were extremely pleased that he did.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same.
I would love to deal him simply because running backs are risky than other positions, so if I’m holding a player at that position who is valued so highly, cashing out for a lesser running back and extra pieces can be a nice way to build a team depth.
When there is such a disparity between book value, and the perception of him as a fragile player or a bust, it creates a really weird market.
if I can figure out who in my league is a believer, I can probably get something done for fair value. Unfortunately, four of my opening salvos were rejected without a counter. All four of them said something about his fragility.
2 Seasons seems way premature to give him that label, but it is what it is. Fantasy owners burned have long memories.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it all boils down to performance versus potential.
Fantasy orders, right or wrong, have dubbed him a bust, or fragile
and as the old saying goes, you can wish in one hand and poop in the other and see which one fills up first.
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't think he is a bust but I also don't think he is a top 5 fantasy asset either. Somewhere in between. I probably will end up with him in some redraft leagues but not even considering making an offer in dynasty. I will say there is no way he should be taken over Najee in dynasty leagues. That seems like craziness to me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Some feel Najee is a compiler, and that it’s partly his opportunity that makes him so valuable.
Not saying I do - it’s just part of what I’ve read.
Swift may well be a better RB. But if he can’t stay healthy it won’t matter.
There are also redraft FF guys who took Swift last year, or the year before expecting greatness and got 13 games.
Perception becomes reality. It doesn’t mean Swift can’t play 17 this year and be a top 5 RB & dynasty asset, it just means people don’t trust him to do that based on what he’s delivered so far.
DropKick
Footballguy
Najee seems like more of a sure thing to me.. Kind of love Javonte's potential but it is still a shared backfield.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Agreed and I can even kind of see why someone would like J-Wil over him but not Swift. Especially not with that injury history on that team.
That is what FF is all about. The fact he is a compiler and has the opportunity is why he should be considered a top 5 FF RB. That is not saying he is one of the five best RB's in the NFL. Those are two different things. In the FF world Najee should not be knocked because he is a compiler. He should be lauded for that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
And he played behind a terrible line with a QB that could no longer challenge defenses downfield so I think his low ypc could move up which makes him an even more valuable “compiler”. In other words if you put him on the Colts instead people wouldn’t have any doubts about him “only being a compiler” - he’d be a league winner.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, exactly what I was saying. I’m just saying the difference between a Harris and a swift.
Swift is all potential at this point. Pound for pound, Swift is probably a more talented, and better rounded running back than Harris.
But as they say, availability is the best ability. DeAndre Swift shareholders would kill for some compiling at this point
Last edited by a moderator:
Boston
Footballguy
Totally agree...and he was also the #1 recruit in the nation, put up some serious #'s at Bama and had a very productive rookie year in the NFL...this is not some random player, he is a high-end talent.
