joey
Footballguy
love it!
now I'm curious...what does the rest of your roster look like after this trade in your 10 team league?
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
now I'm curious...what does the rest of your roster look like after this trade in your 10 team league?
rockaction
Footballguy
Well, it's fairly weak, especially at WR where it gets thin really quickly. The league is essentially non-PPR (.2 per catch for all positions). The yardage counts double. It's .2 points for every yard. The touchdowns are still six points running, passing, and receiving. It becomes a yardage league where touchdowns are devalued by half, in essence.
It's 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1D/ST - 8 total starters out of a pool provided by 28-man rosters. There is no IDP.
I have the 1.01, 3.04, 4.01, 5.01, etc. We draft until we don't want to drop anybody. I imagine I'll run about seven rounds this year given the running backs available.
QB - Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, David Carr, Malik Willis
RB - Ashton Jeanty (1.01), Kenneth Walker, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy, Cam Akers, Sione Vaki
WR - Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, Terry McLaurin, Jalen Coker, Dontayvion Wicks, and then a host of nonentities
TE - David Njoku, Darnell Washington, Cade Stover (there are guys to pick up off the wire here, too)
D/ST - Tampa Bay (there are also teams to pick up off the wire)
So yeah, it will be decent at running back, thin at WR, and thin at TE and D/ST
eta (this is long and edited, holy cow)*** With this team, you can kind of tell when I took it over and when the dispersal draft we had among four of the bottom teams in the league was. All the guys from 2021, which was when I joined the league, have filtered off of my team. That's because when I joined, there was a dispersal draft that was comprised of the team I inherited and three other teams that volunteered to take part (which means they have lousier teams, generally because why else would you volunteer to put your players into a pot where you might lose them?). So that's in the league constitution and the new owner has to participate while the others, as mentioned, have an option to or not, but nobody with a really young and good roster opts in. So there were four of us drafting. Now, I've never done a limited dispersal draft before or even really too many outside start-up drafts outside of mocks, so this was all new to me.
Anyway, as bad luck would have it, I drew the last pick out of the four teams participating, which was terrible because there was a tier break of elite stars at pick three and then a serious drop to pick four. To wit, I wanted Saquon, and he went at pick three. Just bad luck. Making it worse was that back then CEH had just played his first year and was available in this draft. Now, I cut my teeth on these boards by questioning the CEH cult of personality (you should have seen it in 2020) and even got in fights here about it, but I figured I'd diversify for this new league and I picked him and then some other unremarkable receiver at pick five on the mini-turn. Therefore, you can kind of get an inkling that I had a horrible draft to begin with. My lack of experience and sort of being an ingenue hindered me at first and would hinder me throughout that draft.
So I started off in the league with not much to speak of and it's been uphill ever since. I keep trying to compete, but I've done things that I wouldn't do in my other league. I've done things like trade a second round pick to move up in the draft to pick Trey Sermon back when I had two first-round picks. I've traded my second-round picks consistently so that I might field a reasonable squad that isn't capable of winning it all. Things that I know better than to do. The worst was letting training camp (we pick two weeks into the NFL preseason) knock me off of Ja'Marr Chase. Instead of him, I took Najee Harris in order to both diversify again (I picked Chase at 1.01 in my other league and had traded up to get him) and because Chase had problems in training camp and preseason his rookie year. So Chase fell to 1.05 (!), and the league has never been the same because the guy who took him has won the championship twice since then and came close to a third. So I wasn't really with it in this league nor was I up to speed in 2021.
Add to that is a mindset you have to have about small leagues with few starters and short rosters. You need to pick elite players that are superstars to compete. I'm used to finding serviceable guys late in the rookie draft in my other 51-man, IDP, start-18 league that I play in. There, a player you pick in the third or fourth round of a rookie draft has a shot. But in this league, a ten-team league, it means that you've got to be both really on top of it and really lucky to have late draft picks break into the super-elite upper tier. It just doesn't happen that often and the blue bloods dominate the proceedings.
For instance, last year I picked fifth overall (I made the playoffs because six out of ten make it) and I had to (well, didn't have to, but . . .) take Rome Odunze, who I really didn't want. I immediately got the Nabers drafter on the horn and offered to send him a package for Nabers and we agreed on a trade that consisted of Jerome Ford, my 3.05 (pick 26), and Odunze for Nabers. I was ecstatic because I thought it would cost me way more (and in retrospect, after the first year, it should have) to get a guy like Nabers in this league.
So I was and am thrilled with the result, but more importantly than that, it really crystallized my thinking that the players, even if there's some overall talent difference that only seems like a fine difference or just a gradient of difference, are really a whisper away from being a nonentity or being super elite. Any sort of talent difference seems to get exacerbated in the pros and the proof will be in that elite pudding, and you need elite players in this ten-team, start-seven league. (D/ST is not part of the player pool I'm working with, so the scales tip towards the elite players even more). And the more I type, the more I think I finally and really have a mental foundation upon which to build a team for this league. I know what to look and ask for. And I've used "ten-team league" and "elite" an awful lot these past paragraphs. Thanks for sticking it out with me.
So the ship is hopefully righted or at least pointed in the right direction. My oldest starter (and maybe player) is Terry McLaurin at 30, and then it's Njoku at 28, and then things are somewhat beginning to get hopping. I just hope Jeanty is as advertised, that Rashee Rice does not get imprisoned in TX or suspended for anything greater than this year, and that I draft wisely next year (again without a second) in the first round. If that all breaks, things just might continue to look up for this squad.
Anyway, if you read that, you really care about this ****. That's the history of this team and my thought process going forward. Kudos to you for reading and caring, and I hope I was able to impart something useful and memorable about smaller leagues and smaller rosters and smaller lineups.
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joey
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing.
I imagine in a 10 teamer it would be tough to trade away Herbert since most teams are probably set at QB?
If Rice returns to form then you have 3 great WRs imo.
Nice to have Jeanty already slotted in
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I've just started to think about it because the trade just got done. I could get a reasonably good player for him given the weight put on QBs, but then you're looking at Derek Carr backing up Allen and that's no good. If Allen ever misses time, then your team would be really hurting. And I'm not sure you could do significantly better than the three WRs I have with what you'd get for Herbert. Herbert, according to FBG, is worth about the 1.06 in the upcoming rookie draft or somebody like Xavier Worthy or T.J. Hockenson. So I'm inclined to hold.
joey
Footballguy
Great point. I honestly posted the above and then scrolled back up and noticed the rest of your QB depth and went “ewwww” but didn’t correct my post
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This feels like easily worth the price for Allen. Especially in that odd scoring for QB league you have there. You didn't lose anything that hurts your team. Especially in a 10 team league with a small starting lineup. Good move.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
You owe this guy a reach around really. I would have probably taken the Bucky side without you getting back any 2nd rounders. Maybe even with 1 of them on the other side. Charbs, Kincaid, and 1.12 aren't big time assets. Bucky is.
joey
Footballguy
Agree 100%
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I would just like to punch myself in the face one more time for how wrong I was about Bucky Irving. Great trade for you.
joey
Footballguy
+1000000000
In an FFPC Triflex start up last year, I grabbed RWhite in 7th as part of my Zero RB plan, grabbed a couple other vomit inducing RBs in the 9th and 10th (Javonte and ZWhite), and then in the 14th round, picked Vidal instead of “my handcuff” in Bucky Irving. Thank goodness I got lucky with Hubbard in the next round.
I can’t tell you the number of times in the past year I’ve tortured myself and gone back to look at that draft board….like I did just now to type the above info. Ugh.
ETA: more insult to injury is that my oldest was a freshman at U of Oregon last year so I got to watch Bucky first hand, so it would’ve been a pseudo-homer pick for me as well. Double ugh.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Ouch. I live in Oregon too so watched a lot of Bucky. Due to living here and too many homers in my home leagues, I didn't get him anywhere in my redraft leagues but tis is life with players like him, Herbert, and Nix. I'm sure it happens in many regions for guys everyone in the league watched almost every game they played in.+1000000000
In an FFPC Triflex start up last year, I grabbed RWhite in 7th as part of my Zero RB plan, grabbed a couple other vomit inducing RBs in the 9th and 10th (Javonte and ZWhite), and then in the 14th round, picked Vidal instead of “my handcuff” in Bucky Irving. Thank goodness I got lucky with Hubbard in the next round.
I can’t tell you the number of times in the past year I’ve tortured myself and gone back to look at that draft board….like I did just now to type the above info. Ugh.
ETA: more insult to injury is that my oldest was a freshman at U of Oregon last year so I got to watch Bucky first hand, so it would’ve been a pseudo-homer pick for me as well. Double ugh.
I drafted him in a Dynasty Orphan league I joined that had the 1.01. I was lucky enough to get him at 4.01 so my picks were Caleb Williams, Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson (can't all be great), and Bucky. Had a good draft.
I also drafted him in my startup dynasty last year too in the 16th but dang surprised he was there in the 14th for you and you didn't take him. We are all wrong on some players though. Hard to look back at that though.
efactor
Footballguy
This one just went down in a 16 teamer, PPR, 1 QB
Breece Hall for Devon Achane straight up. Not involved.
Seems pretty fair. Achane is rated higher currently, but Breece was higher last year, so that stuff changes pretty fast. Both 23. I actually like Hall better long term although I like Achane better for 2025.
Breece Hall for Devon Achane straight up. Not involved.
Seems pretty fair. Achane is rated higher currently, but Breece was higher last year, so that stuff changes pretty fast. Both 23. I actually like Hall better long term although I like Achane better for 2025.
cdclopper
Footballguy
I could see wanting to get out on Hall after last year.
joey
Footballguy
Cuz I was drinking the similar “down on Irving” Kool Aid that @King of the Jungle and others were drinking , and folks where high on the chargers running game with Harbuagh on board, but I literally remember looking at ranking after ranking at that 14th round pick, flip flopping over a Vidal vs Irving. I obviously flopped :(
Boston
Footballguy
I would be happy to move on from Hall with Achane...Hall could easily bounce back but it's not just Hall you are moving on from but the Jets which is a very appealing part of this trade...also, while I am not a believer in Fields as a real NFL QB he does have fantasy value and I don't think it will help Hall.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. I just wrote a whole long thing and deleted it because it's a tough decision between Hall and Achane. They're really a wash if you take the last two years into account. FBG has Achane as a dynasty sell and PFF says Miami should move him to WR (they wrote a whole article about it, which seemed odd and clickbait-y because of the title).
If Hall can get back to rookie levels, he's the guy, IMO. But will he ever be that guy again? Heck, even if the's the guy from 2023 that looked like he was dragging a leg I'd still want him. But certainly not the 2024 version. That was painful to watch. I hope he's not already washed up. That would kill my real football team and my magic football one. Oof.
But yeah, Achane had a much better year than Hall last year. This year, Hall might have an improved line and a QB that opens up running lanes by virtue of his threat to run. Then again, if he's no threat to pass, the defense will just stack the box and we're back to square one when it comes to the advantage/disadvantage that occurs from having FIelds as your QB.
In a pinch, give me Hall and the hopes he can recapture the magic.
If Hall can get back to rookie levels, he's the guy, IMO. But will he ever be that guy again? Heck, even if the's the guy from 2023 that looked like he was dragging a leg I'd still want him. But certainly not the 2024 version. That was painful to watch. I hope he's not already washed up. That would kill my real football team and my magic football one. Oof.
But yeah, Achane had a much better year than Hall last year. This year, Hall might have an improved line and a QB that opens up running lanes by virtue of his threat to run. Then again, if he's no threat to pass, the defense will just stack the box and we're back to square one when it comes to the advantage/disadvantage that occurs from having FIelds as your QB.
In a pinch, give me Hall and the hopes he can recapture the magic.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I'll always prefer the prototypical NFL RB more than the speed guy. I've said this for 2 years running now (and it's mostly bit me in the bum) that Achane is way too small to take the typical pounding that a bell cow RB takes. As of right now, he's missed 6 games over two seasons because of various injuries (concussion, MCL sprain, ankle sprain, shoulder A/C joint). On the long term, I'll take Hall...Jets or no Jets.
cdclopper
Footballguy
Is there any actual correlation between size and injury?
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade my Hall for someone else's Achane.
Pretty confident the Achane owner in my league wouldn't move him for Hall.
Feels like one of those where what's in hand feels more valuable than what isn't.
Pretty confident the Achane owner in my league wouldn't move him for Hall.
Feels like one of those where what's in hand feels more valuable than what isn't.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Interesting question! A Harvard study mentions that in relation to BMI, there is not a strong correlation between size and injury. That said, Achane is ~2 standard deviations from the mean of 215lbs for a RB. You don't see NFL RBs that light for a reason. Interestingly enough, injury history was more a predictor of injury than anything else as per the Harvard study.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I'll add that the list of RBs under 190lbs (Achane is listed at 188 on the Dolphins website) is sparse. The best of the best are Darren Sproles, Philip Lindsay, and Tarik Cohen. Only Sproles had a reasonably long career.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Tarik Cohen is in about 4 separate pieces now.
cdclopper
Footballguy
This is a threshold by looking at the end of the normal distribution. How many 260+ lb runningbacks had a longer career, for instance.
I'm not saying weight isnt a predictor, but looking at this way works to exagerate the affect.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Agreed, there aren't many 260+lb RBs in the NFL because players with the quickness, speed, and that kind of size tend to be utilized at different positions (specifically TE, LB and DE) and have a difficult time fitting into the smallish sized holes/lanes that an NFL OL can produce. Jerome Bettis is an obvious exception at 255lb. There are many, many more NFL WRs who played under 190lbs which makes sense in my thick head because WRs tend to need speed, agility/flexibility, and tend not to encounter as much contact as RBs.
eighsse2
Footballguy
BMI doesn't seem like a good metric to use here since it's like a "per height" measurement, or whatever. A 250 lb person and a 190 lb person could easily have the same BMI.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Oh, I agree. BMI is a terrible measure of athletes. It just happens to be the measure used by the Harvard study, probably because the sample size is relatively small and BMI kind of equalizes it out a bit.
rockaction
Footballguy
BMI is actually a really good metric to use for running backs because it standardizes (or normalizes?) the height-weight distribution of the guys in the NFL. It allows you to compare the height-weight ratio of somebody with a similar height-weight ratio. Having the same BMI is almost the point, if that makes sense. NFL RBs ideally (for fantasy purposes when they study top twelve finishes) want to be between 29 and 31. Ideally. There's wiggle room there.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Yeah true, I was starting to second-guess that. BMI is more of a density thing. So yeah, if you ram two cars together, is it just the larger one that's going to hold up better, or the denser, more well-built one? Obviously there's more to it than that, but just spherical cowing.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
6'0" 225lb - BMI=30.5
5'5" 180lb - BMI=30.0
6'6" 260lb - BMI =30.8
I'd again argue that BMI is not a good measure of running back size. The examples above are extreme, but indicative of the issues using BMI particularly on athletes.
rockaction
Footballguy
I get what you're saying about height/weight and that the same BMI can be attained by guys that have sizes nowhere near a running back, but you're not looking to measure 260 lb. running backs because other than Jerome Bettis, Brandon Jacobs, or Christian Okoye from the '80s, they don't really exist anymore, if they ever did at that height and BMI. We naturally exclude the 5'5" and 6'6" guys from our analysis because they're height outliers.
There is a correlation between fantasy performance and BMI. No doubt. I've read it many times. From Football Outsiders, to Reddit, you can do a Google search and find it. The latest one can come from Brainy Ballers in 2024, which claimed that the highest scoring backs were generally sub 30.3 BMI.
"To further quantify the impact of BMI on an NFL Running Backs’ fantasy points, we conducted standard statistical testing which yielded encouraging results. For the Pearson value, it came back as -0.102, indicating there is correlation between the two variables (BMI and fantasy points in this case). We are hoping for a minimum of 0.1, or an inverse correlation maximum of -0.1 while studying world-class athletes as we are."
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's what she said.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Fair. Circling back to Achane, this kinda adds to my point. His BMI is in the 28.1 range. He is a statistical outlier in the productive RB BMI range and although BMI doesn't correlate with injury probability, it can't be beneficial to be so far under scale.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Happens to us all. Just hard to swallow. I still kick myself hard for taking Michael Wilson over Puka a couple of years ago. Makes me sick looking back at that draft recap every time.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I have the same feeling as you do but feels like it works on the prototypical sized guy more than not. I will say that I felt Achane looked like he had put on some muscle last offseason which made him a little more durable than his rookie year. I have them both in different leagues and I would still prefer Hall but I do think Achane has a better year this year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I also can't help but wonder how much muscle some of these guys legitimately add over the course of a couple seasons post-college and it doesn't get reflected in their reported weight. Like there were stories about Achane putting on weight. Well. Did he? Did he hit 200? These questions always seem to linger with players and never really get resolved. Which is odd considering how data obsessed this sport is.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SuperFlex
I gave Tracy, 1.12, 2025 2nd
I got LaPorta
Guess I overpaid cause dude accepted very quickly
I gave Tracy, 1.12, 2025 2nd
I got LaPorta
Guess I overpaid cause dude accepted very quickly
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't see that as an overpay at all, even if it isn't TEP. Is it?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FFPC single QB prior to cuts
2026 3rd rounder
For
Brian Robinson
2026 3rd rounder
For
Brian Robinson
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Laporta easy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
it is TEP
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's a definite not overpay. Frankly I don't know why you would make that statement, "Guess I overpaid cause due accepted very quickly". I would think being more secure about your trade is in order.
joey
Footballguy
I’d pay that for underrated Brian Robinson all day. Of course, the nfl draft might change that drastically but I like that value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Bargain.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Solid deal. Draft might hose you, but with Eke re-signed I don’t think WAS needs a RB. Should work out well. Also the pick being a year out makes it roughly equivalent to a 2025 4th.
Love that for you.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
JFC Johnny it's just a figure of speech. Laws of probability say if partner accepts almost immediately then you probably could have got more. I love the trade and was ecstatic when I saw it go through. Would you prefer I do cartwheels and post a video of it? Jesus man.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No, just a another normal day. I wouldn't react to it in any way. You did well IMO, but I suppose a lot can happen to change that. You said, him accepting quickly could have meant you could have gotten more. Does that really matter? I'd prefer looking at it, did I get what I wanted for what I gave? That is much better for the brain.
Robinson got traded in a FFPC rules leage of mine just this morning. Owner had posted he'd trade him for any second.
He ended up taking 3.2 and the Denver D.
2026 third is a better price to pay, don't like that draft class but we'll see, but already know I love the depth of this class.
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Don't play SF but can't imagine any nuance of that would change my mind that you got a steal. And I feel like I like Tracy and mid seconds this year more then most.
In fact you just reminded me that a guy in one of my leagues is super RB desperate, he posted he'd deal a WR for a RB and I offered Tracy and 2.5(which was his original pick) for Odunze. This was in early off-season, before Ben Jonson was hired. He slapped that offer down probably as quickly as your's got accepted but makes me wonder if the guy who took your offer is RB desperate?
