***OFFICIAL*** FFA MLB Draft (1 Viewer)

[Koya]

GWB, it might be more interesting if you run your SIM using 3rd best year by Win Shares, rather than by the same rankings that will be used in the regular SIM.

Are win shares accurate of a guys performance that year, or could it be a players sub par year but a very good team year (I am not that familiar with win shares).I think Im up.. one sec

 

[oso diablo]

Are win shares accurate of a guys performance that year, or could it be a players sub par year but a very good team year (I am not that familiar with win shares).

that's the most commonly asked question about Win Shares. The short answer is that overall team record does not impact a player's WS calculation. i'll look for the longer explanation.

 

[Koya]

There is a better catcher out there perhaps - certainly a much better overall career - however I can not pass up the chance to get a 2nd catcher that will hit over .300 (6 Straight seasons) and the first (only?) full time catcher to win the batting title (.353 in 1926):

Bubbles Hargrave

Catcher

1913-15 1921-1930

.310 Career Average / .372 Career On Base

6 Straight .300+ Seasons

Batting Title (2x Top Ten)

Top Ten MVP

2x Top 6 OBP

2x Top 5 OPS+

8 Points Above League Fielding Average at Catcher

 

[Koya]

Are win shares accurate of a guys performance that year, or could it be a players sub par year but a very good team year (I am not that familiar with win shares).

that's the most commonly asked question about Win Shares. The short answer is that overall team record does not impact a player's WS calculation. i'll look for the longer explanation.

cool. was just curious about how that would work. how about a very good player on a team with many good players... i.e. Jeter on the Yanks. He might be the reason they win so often, but has to share with Sheff, A Rod, Matsui... compared to say Delgado down on the Marlins. If these are questions that are too lengthy to answer let me know. thanks

 

[Spartans Rule]

Are win shares accurate of a guys performance that year, or could it be a players sub par year but a very good team year (I am not that familiar with win shares).

that's the most commonly asked question about Win Shares. The short answer is that overall team record does not impact a player's WS calculation. i'll look for the longer explanation.

cool. was just curious about how that would work. how about a very good player on a team with many good players... i.e. Jeter on the Yanks. He might be the reason they win so often, but has to share with Sheff, A Rod, Matsui... compared to say Delgado down on the Marlins. If these are questions that are too lengthy to answer let me know. thanks

Without really knowing anything about Win Shares, offhand I guess it would be easier to correlate performances with runs created/prevented, and thus with a team's Pythagorean W-L (based simply on runs scored and allowed).When a team's real W-L differs significantly from its Pythagorean W-L, that could pose a problem, but I'm not sure how you would handle it.

 

[oso diablo]

Koya, i don't have a better, longer explanation. James covers the point in detail in his Win Shares book, in the essay "Good Teams, Bad Teams". He proves his point by a series of comparisons of players with very similar raw stats, playing on very different teams. His main defense is that players on bad teams do not suffer in the WS formulas. One of the prominent comparisons is Koufax in 66 vs. Carlton in 72. Carlton actually ends up with more WS than Koufax, because of differences in era and ballpark. Their respective teams' records had nothing to do with it.I see that you're asking a different sort of question. What about the allocation of WS on the good teams. Looking at the 1998 Yankees (the team that won 114 games), Jeter & BWilliams both get 27 WS. Nomar in that same year also had 27 WS. ARod had 30.Don't have the 04 numbers logged in yet.

 

[Koya]

Koya, i don't have a better, longer explanation. James covers the point in detail in his Win Shares book, in the essay "Good Teams, Bad Teams". He proves his point by a series of comparisons of players with very similar raw stats, playing on very different teams. His main defense is that players on bad teams do not suffer in the WS formulas. One of the prominent comparisons is Koufax in 66 vs. Carlton in 72. Carlton actually ends up with more WS than Koufax, because of differences in era and ballpark. Their respective teams' records had nothing to do with it.I see that you're asking a different sort of question. What about the allocation of WS on the good teams. Looking at the 1998 Yankees (the team that won 114 games), Jeter & BWilliams both get 27 WS. Nomar in that same year also had 27 WS. ARod had 30.Don't have the 04 numbers logged in yet.

thanks oso. Ill have to go do some research on my own. I like knowledge, but am lazy. Bad combo.

 

[oso diablo]

Without really knowing anything about Win Shares, offhand I guess it would be easier to correlate performances with runs created/prevented, and thus with a team's Pythagorean W-L (based simply on runs scored and allowed).When a team's real W-L differs significantly from its Pythagorean W-L, that could pose a problem, but I'm not sure how you would handle it.

Runs Created doesn't measure fielding value. Or pitching value, for that matter. Win Shares does all 3.But you're right about the Pythagorean W/L thing: it is a weakness of Win Shares.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

GWB, it might be more interesting if you run your SIM using 3rd best year by Win Shares, rather than by the same rankings that will be used in the regular SIM.

Check your PMs. I'll address the OOTP sim once this draft is done and I've had a chance to test some things.I will point out that the OOTP engine is going to rate things very differently than WIS. Those salaries aren't going to mean much. It's all about the stats.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

By the way, all of this drafting made me go out and buy a NeL book and order the Bill James book from Amazon.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Does anyone have the entire draft up to this point in Excel format?If you can send it to me I can use it to finish up my Win Shares comparison.

 

[Spartans Rule]

By the way, all of this drafting made me go out and buy a NeL book and order the Bill James book from Amazon.

I decided about a week ago that I was going to order Win Shares and two other books. But I forgot what one of the other books was and it's pissing me off so I haven't ordered yet.The draft definitely piqued my interest in baseball stats and sabermetrics though.

 

[Funkley]

If you guys play roto baseball you should give Baseball Prospectus a try like Oso mentioned a couple days ago. Very informative and it's a good read too. Pretty decent humor too for a bunch of stat heads.....no offense Pickles.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

If you guys play roto baseball you should give Baseball Prospectus a try like Oso mentioned a couple days ago. Very informative and it's a good read too. Pretty decent humor too for a bunch of stat heads.....no offense Pickles.

I've got the last three BPro's on my bookshelf. I'll add a fourth soon. Cheap on Amazon too. Usually only $13 or so.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Does anyone have the entire draft up to this point in Excel format?If you can send it to me I can use it to finish up my Win Shares comparison.

Nevermind. Just did a quick cut & paste from page 1 and separated it into columns.

 

[Koya]

Badger, you on the seeding committee for this thing? Sounds like you have a better handle on the draft than we do for sure.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Badger, you on the seeding committee for this thing? Sounds like you have a better handle on the draft than we do for sure.

Nope, not yet anyway. I'm hoping to have a completed Win Shares spreadsheet put together for everyone today though.

 

[Capella]

I have Pumpnick's pick.Somebody remind me, because I'll forget.glllllllll peas

 

[Koya]

Badger, you on the seeding committee for this thing? Sounds like you have a better handle on the draft than we do for sure.

Nope, not yet anyway. I'm hoping to have a completed Win Shares spreadsheet put together for everyone today though.

As I recall, there is also Win Shares per 162 games, correct?

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Badger, you on the seeding committee for this thing? Sounds like you have a better handle on the draft than we do for sure. 

Nope, not yet anyway. I'm hoping to have a completed Win Shares spreadsheet put together for everyone today though.

As I recall, there is also Win Shares per 162 games, correct?

Not sure what you're asking One of the sheets in that zip file I sent out may have that but that isn't what I've been using. I can look into adding it though.Right now, I'm just doing it for the seasons you guys are using (3rd best at WIS).

 

[Koya]

Badger, you on the seeding committee for this thing? Sounds like you have a better handle on the draft than we do for sure.  

Nope, not yet anyway. I'm hoping to have a completed Win Shares spreadsheet put together for everyone today though.

As I recall, there is also Win Shares per 162 games, correct?

Not sure what you're asking One of the sheets in that zip file I sent out may have that but that isn't what I've been using. I can look into adding it though.Right now, I'm just doing it for the seasons you guys are using (3rd best at WIS).

Ahhhh, got you. I thought you were talking about career win shares. Not for the third season. Sorry bout that.

 

[lastresort66]

I have a message from Nipsey. He's been banned.

Can't say I care either way. Maybe oso diablo can take his place now.

 

[oso diablo]

23.16 P John Clarkson

using 3rd best year with Win Shares, John Clarkson is actually #1 overall, just ahead of Babe Ruth.19th century pitcher. 3rd best year (again, by WS) was 1887, when Clarkson had 523 IP, went 38-21, with a 3.08 ERA.BP translates (to modern era & neutral park) that year to 317 IP, 26-9, 2.56 ERA.Not bad for the 23rd round.

 

[Koya]

23.16 P John Clarkson

using 3rd best year with Win Shares, John Clarkson is actually #1 overall, just ahead of Babe Ruth.19th century pitcher. 3rd best year (again, by WS) was 1887, when Clarkson had 523 IP, went 38-21, with a 3.08 ERA.BP translates (to modern era & neutral park) that year to 317 IP, 26-9, 2.56 ERA.Not bad for the 23rd round.

oso... how are you translating to neutral stats? tia

 

[Pumpnick]

23.16 P John Clarkson

using 3rd best year with Win Shares, John Clarkson is actually #1 overall, just ahead of Babe Ruth.19th century pitcher. 3rd best year (again, by WS) was 1887, when Clarkson had 523 IP, went 38-21, with a 3.08 ERA.BP translates (to modern era & neutral park) that year to 317 IP, 26-9, 2.56 ERA.Not bad for the 23rd round.

I was wondering when someone was going to select him.....was kind of hoping everyone would decide to leave him out....oh well

 

[oso diablo]

oso... how are you translating to neutral stats? tia

Baseball Prospectus. For example, here's their page for Bubbles Hargrave. Have to say that one was a real head-scratcher.

 

[Koya]

oso... how are you translating to neutral stats? tia

Baseball Prospectus. For example, here's their page for Bubbles Hargrave. Have to say that one was a real head-scratcher.

Well, from my research, he was a very good hitting catcher, and although there were better career catchers out there, I took the offense. Lead the league in batting one year - back when catchers did not exactly have the equipment of today, either.Thanks for the link!

edit for:

Possible WIS Lineup:

....Pos............ Player Bats...BA...OBP..SLG| HR BB SB|... F/R

1. RF '54 Richie Ashburn L .313 .442 .376| 1 125 11|78| B+/A

2. LF '29 Kiki Cuyler ......R .360 .438 .532| 15 66 43|84| C+/A-

3. CF '96 Ken Griffey Jr.. L .303 .397 .628 |49 78 16 |79| A/A+

4. SS '02 Alex Rodriguez.R .300 .394 .623| 57 87 9.|65| A+/B

5. 1B '47 Johnny Mize .....L .302 .384.614| 51 74 2|52| A/A-

6. 3B '80 Mike Schmidt ...R .286 .388 .624|48 89 12 |66| C+/A

7. C '28 Gabby Hartnett .R .302 .404 .523|14 65 3 |56|B+/C

8. 2B '59 Nellie Fox .........L .306 .383 .389| 2 71. 5 |65|A/B+

PH OF '35 Joe Medwick..R .353 .386 .576| 23 30 4|70|C/A-

PH OF '01 Sam Crawford L .330 .378 .524| 16 37 13|65|D/C

PR '96 Kenny Lofton .......L .317 .375 .446| 14 61 75|95|C+/A

C '22 Bubbles Hargrave.. R .316 .371 .513| 7 26 7|...........C+/D

1B/3B '79 Steve Garvey..R .315 .354 .497| 28 37 3|..........A/B

2B '39 Billy Herman........ R .307 .378 .453| 7 66 9 |..........C/A

SS '47 Lou Boudreau ......R .307 .388 .424| 4 67 1 |..........A/A

I shoulda sim fished for better D.

Herman will play 2B against tough Lefties.

Lofton will be pinch runner. 95 sim speed.

Medwick will take Ashburn's place for a power lineup, and bat behind Schmidt.

Backup catcher hits over .315 with very good OBP and .513 SLG

Garvey has almost 30 Homers in a dead offensive era along with .315

Top of the order averages .440 on base, with power hitters, who hit for average, and (except mize) have speed when on the base paths. Even the 8th slot will have a very smart hitter - one that bats .300.

I wont steal often, unless necessary - but good chance for double, doubles, double. And three 48+ HR hitters, another with 40, and all but one over .300 will make for a tough lineup to negotiate.

edited, I had the wrong year for griffey

 

[Kraft...]

Round 24 summary for the Morning Crew:

24 369 Larryboy 1B Andres Gallaraga

24 370 Spartans 1B Dolph Camilli

24 371 UCONN SS Jim Fregosi

24 372 Kraft SS/2B/3B Dave Concepcion

24 373 funkley SP/RP Camilo Pascual

24 374 Koya C Bubbles Hargrave

24 375 bogart on the clock

24 376 Doug B on deck

24 377 Harrier in the hole

24 378 Pickles

24 379 Sammy3469

24 380 Nipsey

24 381 Capella

24 382 lastresort

24 383 Spock

24 384 pumpnick

 

[Mr. Pickles]

oso... how are you translating to neutral stats? tia

Baseball Prospectus. For example, here's their page for Bubbles Hargrave. Have to say that one was a real head-scratcher.

It is a head scratcher. Not that he's the end all authority on the matter, but Bill James ranks "Bubbles" a rather cool-to-the-touch #85 on the all time list of catchers. There's a little blurb in there discussing his bout with appendicitis and a special all liquid diet consisting of mostly buttermilk.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

oso, did you get my last PM? If you have the sheet you were talking about, send it to that email addy.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Any guesses as to how Nipsey was banned?

 

[Doug B]

I've sent my next pick to about half of the drafters. No muss, no fuss..

 

[UCONN]

updated the sig. for GWB. all the 3rd yrs. should be right.

 

[Koya]

If you look at Bubbles' career (the guys name is Bubbles too.. dont think that doesnt count for something in a draft like this), than I wouldnt be surprised that he is down on the list. However, we arent drafting best career, especially not this late in the game.

Bubbles was by far the best catcher out there for my team. I didnt want a slow .250 plodder out there mucking up my lineup 1/4 of the days!

Trivia: What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

(when I return in a couple hours I will check through the joking answers and see if anyone got the answer right. When you see the answer, you will understand why, as a backup catcher, this guy is gold. You need a sleeper every now and then )

 

[Mr. Pickles]

If you look at Bubbles' career (the guys name is Bubbles too.. dont think that doesnt count for something in a draft like this), than I wouldnt be surprised that he is down on the list. However, we arent drafting best career, especially not this late in the game.

Bubbles was by far the best catcher out there for my team. I didnt want a slow .250 plodder out there mucking up my lineup 1/4 of the days!

Trivia: What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

(when I return in a couple hours I will check through the joking answers and see if anyone got the answer right. When you see the answer, you will understand why, as a backup catcher, this guy is gold. You need a sleeper every now and then )

 

[Koya]

If you look at Bubbles' career (the guys name is Bubbles too.. dont think that doesnt count for something in a draft like this), than I wouldnt be surprised that he is down on the list.  However, we arent drafting best career, especially not this late in the game.

Bubbles was by far the best catcher out there for my team.  I didnt want a slow .250 plodder out there mucking up my lineup 1/4 of the days!

Trivia:  What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

(when I return in a couple hours I will check through the joking answers and see if anyone got the answer right.  When you see the answer, you will understand why, as a backup catcher, this guy is gold.  You need a sleeper every now and then    )

Oh come on Mr. Pick. Come out and play.PS - While we wait for an answer ( ) - E. Lombardi also won a batting title. He actually won 2. Thats freakin impressive.

 

[Doug B]

If you look at Bubbles' career (the guys name is Bubbles too.. dont think that doesnt count for something in a draft like this), than I wouldnt be surprised that he is down on the list.  However, we arent drafting best career, especially not this late in the game.

Bubbles was by far the best catcher out there for my team.  I didnt want a slow .250 plodder out there mucking up my lineup 1/4 of the days!

Trivia:  What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

(when I return in a couple hours I will check through the joking answers and see if anyone got the answer right.  When you see the answer, you will understand why, as a backup catcher, this guy is gold.  You need a sleeper every now and then    )

Oh come on Mr. Pick. Come out and play.PS - While we wait for an answer ( ) - E. Lombardi also won a batting title. He actually won 2. Thats freakin impressive.

And an NL MVP award.

No name recodmition among the masses, though.

:(

 

[Koya]

No name recodmition among the masses, though. :(

What are you talking about? He is widely considered the greatest coach ever?

 

[oso diablo]

Trivia: What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

They all play/played during eras of very high offense, where the league average OPS was at least 750. Compare that to the eras of Bench (717) or Bresnahan (676).

 

[Koya]

Trivia:  What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

They all play/played during eras of very high offense

oh boy, busting chops I see! (that is true also, but alas, NOT the answer. I can also add, a catcher leading the league in hitting is still impressive because that is the best for that year - and I believe top 5 another time).editted to add: if you bring up that it was just under 400 at bats, you will have a valid point - except when you consider the additional wear and tear catchers received in those days with the primitive protection, IMO it balances out. Besides, who is saying this guy is Johnny Bench? He is a very good hitting backup catcher - someone to get on base a bit, not be god awfully slow, and hold the fort till Gabby plays the next day - he is not the second coming!)

 

[oso diablo]

So what's the answer?

 

[Koya]

(this is the closest thing we have had talkin baseball in a long while. Unfortunately, Oso seemed to agree with most of my picks this time - except Bubbles of course)

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Trivia: What do Gabby Hartnett, Bill Dickey, Mike Pizza, Michey Cochrane and Bubbles Hargrave have in common?

They all play/played during eras of very high offense, where the league average OPS was at least 750. Compare that to the eras of Bench (717) or Bresnahan (676).

You get my last PM?If you have that spreadsheet, shoot it over to that email address.

 

[Koya]

Answer: They are the only catchers in MLB history to have more than one .300 AVG| .400 OBP | .500 SLG season.

Yes, they offensive era's certainly played a role for the likes of Bubbles and many others. As true with everything in baseball, you have to look in context.

 

[oso diablo]

Oso seemed to agree with most of my picks this time - except Bubbles of course

Never said it was a bad pick, just a head scratcher. Which means that it caught me off guard, and i had to learn about the guy. You're right about his batting skills, and Hargrave aptly fills the precise need you were looking for.

 

[Koya]

Oso seemed to agree with most of my picks this time - except Bubbles of course

Never said it was a bad pick, just a head scratcher. Which means that it caught me off guard, and i had to learn about the guy. You're right about his batting skills, and Hargrave aptly fills the precise need you were looking for.

Well, even if you disagree, you are certainly entitled. Youd be wrong, but ... jk. Honestly, you seem to really know your stuff, and have objective info to back up your claims. That is why when you didnt like the pick, I was like, hmmm - hope that was the right guy (I think he is for what I needed)A couple players on my team, I had hardly heard about before this draft. Others I had heard of, but did not appreciate their place in baseball (Medwick, particularly). I wonder what players of today - guys that were great, or very very good, or great at some particular things for half a decade, or 8-10 years - will be forgotten by history.editted so I keep player pimping in one reply (some interesting info here oso): From 1927-1930, Hargrave also lead ALL catchers in Fielding Perecentage and lead in Assists per Game by a LARGE margin.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Need names for three guys:Miller and Kramer from Pumpnick's team and Montgomery from Spartans. I think misspellings from the front page are screwing them up.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Need names for three guys:Miller and Kramer from Pumpnick's team and Montgomery from Spartans. I think misspellings from the front page are screwing them up.

Also, Forster from Spock's team. Foster maybe?

 

[oso diablo]

Answer: They are the only catchers in MLB history to have more than one .300 AVG| .400 OBP | .500 SLG season.

that's a good trivia question. In those eras, a 300/400/500 year roughly translates into at least a 140 OPS+. So i decided to see how many seasons (w/ at least 400 PAs) each catcher had with an OPS+ of 140 or higher.

9 - Piazza

5 - Hartnett

4 - Bench, Simmons

3 - Dickey, Torre, Campanella, Bresnahan

2 - Cochrane, Lombardi, Yogi, GCarter, EHoward, Freehan, Ewing, Tettleton

1 - Fisk, JLopez, Munson, Kelly, Daulton, Hargrave

The cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary, and a few guys (Ewing, most notably) would have had more years if the cutoffs were expanded even slightly.

No commentary, other than to ponder if we shouldn't start considering Mike Piazza as the greatest catcher of all-time. Can the defensive deficiency be nearly enough to offset the batting dominance?

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Can the defensive deficiency be nearly enough to offset the batting dominance?

Honestly, I don't think so. I think Bench is still pretty close to him because of his defense but Piazza should at least be top two.