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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)

Who do you guys like in the super bowl?

My first thought was SF money line and the over but I could see Mahomes carving up their good defense too. 

It seems like a really hard game to pick. 

 
NREC34 said:
Who do you guys like in the super bowl?

My first thought was SF money line and the over but I could see Mahomes carving up their good defense too. 

It seems like a really hard game to pick. 
Click to expand...
Not one of my more scientific stats, but the team wearing white has won 13 of the last 15 Super Bowls. SF is the team wearing white.

 
NREC34 said:
Who do you guys like in the super bowl?

My first thought was SF money line and the over but I could see Mahomes carving up their good defense too. 

It seems like a really hard game to pick. 
Click to expand...
Unlike most of the playoff games, this is actually a pretty good line and money is pretty evenly split to this point.   I have a slight lean to the Chiefs because mobile QBs have been the kryptonite for the Niners defense and I think that could be the difference in the game.   But it could go either way and may come down to turnovers/special teams like most games that are evenly matched.

 
NREC34 said:
Who do you guys like in the super bowl?

My first thought was SF money line and the over but I could see Mahomes carving up their good defense too. 

It seems like a really hard game to pick. 
Click to expand...
Agreed, seems like a true pick em.  Mahomes looks unstopppable, but at one time people thought Dan Marino would beat the niners too.

 
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This might be the first 50/50 Super Bowl in a while. Especially if you're saying the money is evenly split to this point. I think fading consensus numbers and public plays have been strong in the past, but recently (somehow, seemingly coinciding with states' legalization of sports betting and the introduction of sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel to the market) it feels like fading public plays has become really "watered down" as a nice, solid angle. Take the "fading ranked underdogs versus unranked teams" angle for example. Five years ago consensus numbers used to be kinda overlooked. But now I think the books have figured out a way to line games and not have to keep their "consensus numbers" private anymore. The result of both Wong faves winning yesterday could also possibly be used as an example, although I'm not sure how popular/public the Green Bay side of that teaser leg ended up being.

 
Teams on B2B 6-1 SU at Phoenix this season, most of them catching points. Spurs already beat them once this year. Spurs 12-3 O/U on totals 226 or more (12-0 scoring more than 107) with ten of 12 going over the total by double digits. Also did some Spurs o112½ -110 didn't check any injuries, etc.. just action junk cheers

 
ChainsawU said:
Teams on B2B 6-1 SU at Phoenix this season, most of them catching points. Spurs already beat them once this year. Spurs 12-3 O/U on totals 226 or more (12-0 scoring more than 107) with ten of 12 going over the total by double digits. Also did some Spurs o112½ -110 didn't check any injuries, etc.. just action junk cheers
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Suns playing better with Ayton, so year long stats not accounting for that.

 
Honest question: Which staff is better with 2 weeks to prep? 🤔 

Mobile QB could give SF trouble but lets be fair, neither team had a tough playoff road to get this far.. this year's GB, MIN, HOU and TEN is not exactly murderers row. First inclination was KC, so i probably should take SF. 

 
I’m trying to decipher the anthem.  Chalk is over 124 seconds.  She’s sung the anthem out a lot earlier in her career (two World Series) and never went over 120 seconds. 2 years ago at the Floyd McGregor fight she clocked 130 seconds.

i would think the over is a decent bet here as this is a big event and will probably be the highlight of her career....  I just hate laying -150 so early.

 
Angry Beavers said:
Honest question: Which staff is better with 2 weeks to prep? 🤔 

Mobile QB could give SF trouble but lets be fair, neither team had a tough playoff road to get this far.. this year's GB, MIN, HOU and TEN is not exactly murderers row. First inclination was KC, so i probably should take SF. 
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The side is harder to figure for me than the total.  I saw a lot of speed to the ball from the SF defense,  but them grinding it out on the ground on offense could shorten the game without creating a ton of points.  If pressed I would go the under 54.5 if that is present.  A 30-24 game either way would be a winner.

 
The Ref said:
I’m trying to decipher the anthem.  Chalk is over 124 seconds.  She’s sung the anthem out a lot earlier in her career (two World Series) and never went over 120 seconds. 2 years ago at the Floyd McGregor fight she clocked 130 seconds.

i would think the over is a decent bet here as this is a big event and will probably be the highlight of her career....  I just hate laying -150 so early.
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She would have been wasted at that point in her life.   She's supposedly sober now.   u 2 minutes.

 
Angry Beavers said:
Honest question: Which staff is better with 2 weeks to prep? 🤔 

Mobile QB could give SF trouble but lets be fair, neither team had a tough playoff road to get this far.. this year's GB, MIN, HOU and TEN is not exactly murderers row. First inclination was KC, so i probably should take SF. 
Click to expand...
Banged up Seahawks team gave them all they could handle, but Seahawks can play decent run defense and suck against the pass.  Chiefs D was supposed to be weak against the run, but shut down Henry this time when Jones and Clark were healthy.

I think line is going to move toward pick em so I bet 49ers +1.5 and ML in what looks like a true toss up.   If any defensive line is going to shake Mahomes, it's the 49ers.

 
swirvenirvin said:
both showing cleavage -150
Click to expand...


swirvenirvin said:
brave over 5.5
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Same on both.

Also:

First Niner metioned Montana -150

Shortest TD under 1.5 yards

Yes 3 straight scores

Montana pic/clip as a Chief yes +150

 
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Niners over 10.5 1H -135 at 5d.  13.5 is -110 at 5d, and the over 13.5 is juiced elsewhere up to -130.  I'll lay the 135 they get more than a td and fg.

 
Obviously there's a lot of vig tacked on to multi-way bets (esp futures), so I did an experiment and calculated the vig for current Stanley Cup futures if you took the best price for every team using US-facing online books (no Pinny). Amazingly, there is a negative hold of about 1.5% if you take the best price for each team. So, you know, shop around.

That's also one of the problems with "method of victory" bets in boxing/MMA, there's way more vig than just betting a fighter straight, or betting over/under rounds or will it go the distance. I think on 5D the vig for Cerrone/McGregor was around 30% for all five multi-way outcomes (Cerrone KO, Cerrone decision, Mcgregor KO, McGregor decision, draw), but it was like the standard 4-5% for betting them straight.

 
Utah really ate #### on their road trip, three games is long as #### now they're back home. They're also off three consecutive overs.

Washington/Utah u133½ -105

 
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