What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

UTSA had been perfect ATS in 16 home games hosting CUSA going back to Feb 2018. It was time for that to end. Look like UAB halftime adjustments just pulled them out of that two-game tailspin. Line move pretty much telegraphed the result of that one. Dude Will Butler career-high scoring night I didn't think that dude was gonna even play

 
L4 seasons Iowa now 1-9 on the road after playing consecutive home games. Get comfortable on that home court and then suck when they have to leave. In the win they allowed 69. In the nine losses they allowed 90±4. Situation comes again March 8 at Illinois, last game regular season. And speaking of Illinois, Iowa host them on Sunday. I think that game goes way over too and plan on closing the +600 with that total, hoping 157 or better (thinking it'll probably be 148)

 
Walking Boot that is incredible brother. The time you spent thinking about it and the complexity behind that entire (multi-person) thought process.. anytime you can look back on something and "wonder if was ever even real" you were living in that moment brother nice job

 
Call it a hunch.  I’m almost always about the QB wins the award and I’m sure it will be true again this year.  That said I just Sprinkled the infield with SF D players MVP.  Bosa, Sherman, Ford, Buckner, Alexander, Armsted & Warner.

I think there is a path for one of these guys to win and other than Bosa and Sherman there is some very long odds.

 
Chiefs 27-8 in games Mahomes attempts a pass
More than 20 rushing attempts as a team: 26-1
Games with fewer than 21 rush attempts: 1-7

When they lost to the Colts this season they only ran the ball 14 times compared to the Colts' 45 attempts. When they lost to the Texans this season they only ran the ball 11 times compared to the Texans' 41 attempts. The 20:12 time of possession in that Texans game was Chiefs' lowest in a home game in over twenty years. Mahomes has never lost a game when the Chiefs had more rushing attempts than the other team, but only 10-8 when they don't.

On the flip side, the Seahawks and Ravens both rushed over 30 times per game when they beat SF this season. Since Garoppolo and Shanahan hooked up, five of their six losses came when the opposing team was able to run it 28+ times. When their opponents ran the ball less than 28 times a game Garoppolo and Shanahan 17-1.

When the Chiefs beat the 49ers last season they ran the ball exactly 28 times.

 
The Ref said:
Call it a hunch.  I’m almost always about the QB wins the award and I’m sure it will be true again this year.  That said I just Sprinkled the infield with SF D players MVP.  Bosa, Sherman, Ford, Buckner, Alexander, Armsted & Warner.

I think there is a path for one of these guys to win and other than Bosa and Sherman there is some very long odds.
Click to expand...
I'm on Jimmy G +350

 
I think Darwin Thompson is a good bet on all his props. KC is going to put the ball in the hands of players with speed to make plays.

 
TripItUp said:
I'm on Chiefs and Under

Anybody who says they know how this game plays out is selling you something.   
Click to expand...
I think the CHiefs figured out last game they have to get Mahomes out of the pocket to throw and run more than he has in the past.  Usually, the team with best RB and D wins the SB.  Henry ran great for 3 games and then they forced Tenn to throw.   If they can do that here, and I think they can, I see a 41-31 type game for KC.  Mahomes is just too good.

I really like ov66 at +300.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
I think the CHiefs figured out last game they have to get Mahomes out of the pocket to throw and run more than he has in the past.  Usually, the team with best RB and D wins the SB.  Henry ran great for 3 games and then they forced Tenn to throw.   If they can do that here, and I think they can, I see a 41-31 type game for KC.  Mahomes is just too good.

I really like ov66 at +300.
Click to expand...
My problem with the over.

The books set the total knowing the public will come in on the over.  The original line was 51, which means the real line according to oddsmakers is probably somewhere around 49/50.  But they have to set it higher to get anything remotely close to 50/50 and they won't be getting that as of right now where over 70% is still on the over.  Many books wanted over action.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TripItUp said:
My problem with the over.

The books set the total knowing the public will come in on the over.  The original line was 51, which means the real line according to oddsmakers is probably somewhere around 49/50.  But they have to set it higher to get anything remotely close to 50/50 and they won't be getting that as of right now where over 70% is still on the over.  Many books wanted over action.
Click to expand...
I get that, and I still think the game blows past it pretty easily.   SF run D is too good.  KC will have to pass out of the gate to set up the run later in the game.  SF can be passed on.  If KC comes out trying to establish a run, it plays right into the SF D and their game plan.   KC has to force SF out of their run game for them to have a chance IMO.  And KC did that vs TENN.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
I get that, and I still think the game blows past it pretty easily.   SF run D is too good.  KC will have to pass out of the gate to set up the run later in the game.  SF can be passed on.  If KC comes out trying to establish a run, it plays right into the SF D and their game plan.   KC has to force SF out of their run game for them to have a chance IMO.  And KC did that vs TENN.
Click to expand...
Throwing out the oddsmaker strategy...here are the arguments for the under.

1.  Pats D will be the model for slowing KC as it was effective earlier this year and Niners D is even better than Pats D.

2.  Niners lead will swallow time with effective run game

3.  Chiefs D is wildly underrated when healthy, see almost any metrics for last 6-8 weeks with key pro bowlers in the lineup.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TripItUp said:
Throwing out the oddsmaker strategy...here are the arguments for the under.

1.  Pats D will be the model for slowing KC as it was effective earlier this year and Niners D is even better than Pats D.

2.  Niners lead will swallow time with effective run game

3.  Chiefs D is wildly underrated when healthy, see almost any metrics for last 6-8 weeks with key pro bowlers in the lineup.
Click to expand...
Pats pass D was a lot better then SF pass D.  SF and NE had great run D's.   KC D is playing much better last 8 weeks for sure.  Mahomes blasts through it all and Jimmy G forced to throw in the 4th.     This could be a SF/NO type of game easily.  

 
Getzlaf15 said:
Pats pass D was a lot better then SF pass D.  SF and NE had great run D's.   KC D is playing much better last 8 weeks for sure.  Mahomes blasts through it all and Jimmy G forced to throw in the 4th.     This could be a SF/NO type of game easily.  
Click to expand...
SF pass D was #1 in the NFL.  Pats were second.

 
Is it me or does the Chiefs team remind you of the Buffalo Bills team of the 90's?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Since Garoppolo and Shanahan hooked up they're 15-12 to the over:
When the opposing team sees the red zone 3+ times: 14-2 O/U 57±14 ppg
When the opposing team doesn't reach the red zone more than twice: 1-10 O/U 37±14 ppg

 
GROOT said:
Is it me or does the Chiefs team remind you of the Buffalo Bills team of the 90's?
Click to expand...
What's up brother. How do you mean. Like they get to the big game but walk away empty? That's a common theme I've noticed with Andy Reid, if that's what you're up to. Yo that was a good advice when you said "lay the wood" on KC vs Houston. Congrats on that you should share more wood-themed ideas

 
Guys I started a side business making t-shirts. Just a little side hustle - legit business entity, but just me doing it. If you ever want shirts made hit me up. Literally any graphic you have I can put on any garment. Hoodies, jackets, all that. Invoice via PayPal, no order too big or too small. I can design it too, anything you want, just wanted to let you know

 
Went to the sportsbook in person last night to see if I could pick off any bad lines, pretty underwhelming experience.  Was hoping to find some stale numbers but they had a pretty standard menu of bets available.  Good news is the small area they had converted to a "sports lounge" was packed so business is good which I hope means they'll expand their little operation.  Really need the ability to see their menu of bets online.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
lumpy19 said:
Went to the sportsbook in person last night to see if I could pick off any bad lines, pretty underwhelming experience.  Was hoping to find some stale numbers but they had a pretty standard menu of bets available.  Good news is the small area they had converted to a "sports lounge" was packed so business is good which I hope means they'll expand their little operation.  Really need the ability to see their menu of bets online.
Click to expand...
Indiana has a bet builder that isn’t even an app but does allow you to see everything and get a barcode they scan at the ticket counter. 
 

https://c3-static.kambi.com/client/pivusinrl-law/index-retail-barcode.html#event/1006086606
 

 
Nitrogen has Russell Westbrook PRA vs Mahomes pass attempts, even at -182 I like Westbrook here

They also have a nice price on u55 -121

 
ChainsawU said:
What's up brother. How do you mean. Like they get to the big game but walk away empty? That's a common theme I've noticed with Andy Reid, if that's what you're up to. Yo that was a good advice when you said "lay the wood" on KC vs Houston. Congrats on that you should share more wood-themed ideas
Click to expand...
I remember Jim Kelly and company could score so fast. The last team a Chiefs winning formula is likely to work...is against the 49ers. They may run into a "buzzsaw" today. I'm leaning 49ers.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

supermike80
Thread---Marital Advice
2
Replies
70
Views
1K
coopersdad
C
DJackson10
Work won’t allow me back after being injured because of limitations on a separate issue they had no issue with previously when doing this job
Replies
29
Views
1K
DJackson10
DJackson10
ChiefD
Merry Christmas All
Replies
27
Views
639
simsarge
simsarge

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 9 (members: 0, guests: 9)
Top