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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

I found out that non-regular season when you're playing top-10 and you're ranked out of the top-10 and catching more than 10 the games go 19-7 ou and 17-1 ou when you score more than 12 points.
 
welp somehow i fat fingered my bet last night,
meant to play a $30 parlay of 3 ML bets TX, OR, ND and somehow hit $305 :bag: probably going to drop $300 on Ohio State to win and then depending on that out come drop money on Georgia.
 
Here we go, some NFL player incentives that can be earned in week 18:

D Hopkins: 1 td for $500k

M Evans: 5 rec and 85 yds for $3 mil

Geno Smith: 186 pass yds for $2 mil, and another $2 mil for winning 10 games

Kyler Murray: 1 rush td and 50 rush yds for $750k

C Sutton: 82 yds for $500k

T Pollard: 83 rush yds for $250k, and another $250k for 2 tds

JK Dobbins: 58 rush yards for $150k

D Henry: 1 td for $500k

M Valdes-Scantling: 1 td for $250k

Here's a list with a bunch more, as well as some individual milestones that players might be trying to reach:

 
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dawgs +1.5

sagarins computer made nd the fave
phil steels computer made nd the fave
georgia opened as the fave line has flipped somethings off. kirby and them
 
Here we go, some NFL player incentives that can be earned in week 18:

D Hopkins: 1 td for $500k

M Evans: 5 rec and 85 yds for $3 mil

Geno Smith: 186 pass yds for $2 mil, and another $2 mil for winning 10 games

Kyler Murray: 1 rush td and 50 rush yds for $750k

C Sutton: 82 yds for $500k

T Pollard: 83 rush yds for $250k, and another $250k for 2 tds

JK Dobbins: 58 rush yards for $150k

D Henry: 1 td for $500k

M Valdes-Scantling: 1 td for $250k

Here's a list with a bunch more, as well as some individual milestones that players might be trying to reach:

I know all of that’s probably factored into the lines but that’s a lot of money for Evans and Geno may have to do something with those
 
FYI

Josh Dobbs starting at QB for the 49ers Sunday at Arizona. Him and WR Jauan Jennings are former college teammates and Dobbs loves throwing to him.

3 of Dobbs' 4 targets in cleanup duty Monday night went to Jennings...I can easily see 10+ targets for Jauan Sunday.
I don’t see any receptions offered for this game at bet365, DK or FanDuel 🙄
 
FYI

Josh Dobbs starting at QB for the 49ers Sunday at Arizona. Him and WR Jauan Jennings are former college teammates and Dobbs loves throwing to him.

3 of Dobbs' 4 targets in cleanup duty Monday night went to Jennings...I can easily see 10+ targets for Jauan Sunday.
I don’t see any receptions offered for this game at bet365, DK or FanDuel 🙄
My app doesn't have many player props for that game yet either. They have WR yardage (Jennings is 77.5) but they don't have any WRs from either team listed for receptions. Im guessing he will be listed at 6.5, maybe 5.5.
 
Henry over 1.5 receptions
Andrews over 34.5 rec
+236

Balt -7.5
Both teams to score 2nd quarter -No
+120

Pickens over 66.5 rec
Gesicki over 31.5 rec
Warren over 21.5 rec
Harris over 8.5 rec
Warren over 42.5 rushing
+1900
 
sagarin says Cincy 0-7 vs top-16
those seven all went over the total
average score 36-30

Cincy 4-1 vs bottom half of the league
avg score 25-17
this season Cincy 8-8 su 10-6 ats and 11-5 ou

vs sub-500 teams: 7-0 su and ats 3-4 ou and games averaged 43 ppg

vs teams 500 or better: 1-7 su and 3-5 ats 8-0 ou and games averaged 65 ppg
 
i checked steelers when it's less than 30° outside. because I was worried about the over. checked it. back to 1999. when it's less than 30 they are 22-11 su and 22-11 to the over. NOW.. the average total to beat in those games was only 38. and the games average score was 26-21. and tonight the total is way higher. but it made me less worried about the weather in the cold
 
Only one win yesterday mostly due to the surprisingly low scoring Bengals game.
Tough week for gamblers with a bunch of teams starting backups or may sit starters if they get a big lead so mostly playing props.
Need Panthers to lose to cash a preseason $5 5 leg win total parlay for $42. Hedging with $5 on Panthers to win at +370.
Very rarely win when I bet $20+ so putting $20 on Vikings at +130 to hopefully guarantee my Lions a win lol.

Bucs -9
Baker 225+ passing
Evans 90+ rec
Irving 60+ rushing
+208
 
road dogs vs falcons last 5 years 17-8 ats
no dog scoring more than 10 points there has lost by more than 7 points except for a 30-17 loss by the bucs. maybe we got a little more tape on penix and he ****s the bed. carolina is 6-2 ats L8. they been going to OT a lot so this covers there too

panthers 7.5
 
I put $1 on a 14 team ML parlay at +67158 (pays $672)

I'm currently 8 for 8 and they're offering early cashout at $32.

Im gonna hold the line for now.

Rest of picks: MIA, SEA, LAC, DEN, ARI, MIN
 
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FYI

Josh Dobbs starting at QB for the 49ers Sunday at Arizona. Him and WR Jauan Jennings are former college teammates and Dobbs loves throwing to him.

3 of Dobbs' 4 targets in cleanup duty Monday night went to Jennings...I can easily see 10+ targets for Jauan Sunday.
Jennings ejected after a personal foul with 6:26 left in the 1st half. He ends with 7 rec for 52 yds on 10 ttargets.

I didn't bet on him today but he hit the over on catches (5.5) on my app.
 
since 2020 Vikings subsequent matchups (seeing the oppo team twice) lines up perfectly with these lined numbers

i think 29+ for detroit will be a win and i think the total is about 7 points too high

so i wanna play an o49.5 or an o47 if lucky somehow but prolly wont get to and wont play any under cheers fellaz
 
gophers are the sharp side tonight. kp says it should be 7. the +6/+220 got knocked down to +5/+190 at shops and is even worse at fd +4.5/+172 rn. the key number in basketball is 5.5 so the fact fd isn't giving you the key number says a lot too.
 
wisconsin rutgers should be pretty close. kp says wisconsin by 4 but refuses to give rutgers more than 2. it's a long day and all this is subject to change this is just how it sets up.
 
kp has tennessee (-1) at florida with the highest thrill score of the night. thats a lotta points to be giving to tennessee. definitely shraps on gators. gator shraps.
 
nobody is giving up their consensus numbers on that one yet. what a coincidence. it's gotta be like 100% on vols. just a scientific guess (trust the science)
 
early chains report
two stand out:
feels like shrap omaha
feels like book asking for money bonnies
other: there's a handful of games looks like book tried to pump fake but public saw right thru/didn't take the bait. those are the most-confsing. could be real, could be setups for shrapnels to hammer later
gotta see how the action shakes out but those a handful of prime rlm opps gotta keep track of
 
Henry 108+ yds (rush & rec)
Jackson 36+ yds longest completion
Jackson under 28 pass attempts
+450


D Henry 6+ rec yds
-110

Henry has 18+ rec yds in 4 of his last games. The only time he had less was @ NYG week 15 when he had zero tagets and only 14 carries. He had 2 rec for 27 yds vs PIT in week 16. With Flowers out, I think Henry gets a few more looks.
 
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