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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)

Money must be pouting in on the Cougs. Now at 10 1/2. I would anticipate a lot of cash to move it off of a key number like 10.........I still haven't bitten. I think I want to though.

 
lumpy19 said:
you're smart, stop fading, you'll lose, in the end if he has no edge he ends up 50/50 which is a loser whether you're following or fading.
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He's not 50 50.. we received his plays maybe 5 yrs ago for free.  their system is you get the next week free after they net you a winner.   well here we are 5 yrs later.  and he is down well over 200 units since then maybe more,  my buddy keeps track so I don't know.   he is especially bad during bowl season. 

 
I remember rolling through in week 6 thinking about adding the Air Force -400 ML to all my stuff that day. Ended up not doing it and then Wyoming won. One time in the old thread, and I'd show you if it still existed, I told you about how Wyoming had been 2-27 SU as the underdog since 2012. This season they're 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS as the dog (avg line 11.4), and five of their eight overall SU wins this season have come when they were catching ≥ 6 points. Also, seven of their eight ATS wins have come when the total was lined < 58. The margin in their five SU losses this season has been 3,3,3,21,35. I took the 10½ and would probably take some 3½ if you'd let me.

 
You know when there's a piercing down there and it clicks across your front teeth. It's weird at first but you get used to that after a while right.

 
ChainsawU said:
I remember rolling through in week 6 thinking about adding the Air Force -400 ML to all my stuff that day. Ended up not doing it and then Wyoming won. One time in the old thread, and I'd show you if it still existed, I told you about how Wyoming had been 2-27 SU as the underdog since 2012. This season they're 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS as the dog (avg line 11.4), and five of their eight overall SU wins this season have come when they were catching ≥ 6 points. Also, seven of their eight ATS wins have come when the total was lined < 58. The margin in their five SU losses this season has been 3,3,3,21,35. I took the 10½ and would probably take some 3½ if you'd let me.
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Those ATS and SU numbers as the dog is what had me on them in the first place. I'm in, a little smaller just because this line movement scares me a little bit.

Wyo +10 1/2

 
swirvenirvin said:
Actually he is -97 since end of 2013, doc is -179 since beginning of 2015
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C'mon you're smarter than this, maybe you're   :fishing:  you must be. I don't care about units won or lost, calculate his adjusted win %(accounts for betting moneylines) and I bet it's pretty damn close to 50/50.

 
My hypothesis on the line movement is that Sagarin and/or whoever the hell else said it should be 12, BOL/Pinny opened at 7½ and 8½ because they didn't want to offer that many points, it got bet up and saw resistance at 10½ because that's a good number. And my Biology professor said not to use the word theory when you're just guessing.

 
lumpy19 said:
C'mon you're smarter than this, maybe you're   :fishing:  you must be. I don't care about units won or lost, calculate his adjusted win %(accounts for betting moneylines) and I bet it's pretty damn close to 50/50.
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yes i assume it is around that you are not going to make money fading or tailing him overall.  Bowl season though I will fade him when I dont have a strong opinion on either way and want bowl action

 
Jenna Compono ‏@JennaCompono  46m46 minutes ago

Don't mistake my silence for ignorance. Don't mistake my calmness for acceptance. And more of all don't mistake my kindness for weakness.

@lumpy19

 
I ate some Triscuit crackers in the car. You should've had some.
Well maybe if you told me there were delicious Triscuit crackers I could have enjoyed them with you.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
14.5 for both rebs and points today.

I played under on both, fwiw. I think  people over-estimate the number of points that x will score if y is out, sometimes. Don't think it's usually that cut-and-dried. Jordan gets his opps, for instance, either via lobs or just getting garbage. The amount of garbage opps is probably about equal, and the number of lob opportunities probably won't increase that much. If that's there, Paul's obviously gonna go to it, but Griffin being out doesn't necessarily make more lob opps materialize.

Clearly, Redick was the big beneficiary tonight (as was Mbah A Moute to some extent). And Jordan's props hinge on whether he sees the floor again in the 4th, but his efficient shooting might put him over if he gets back in.
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Yeah, I didn't do any research or anything and it's akin to me walking into a building that's on fire and calmly saying "the building is on fire".  I just thought Jordan blew up when Griffin went out with the elbow injury so I thought i'd mention it.  Either way, glad you won that cash.

 
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tomorrow in Italy

Fiorentina has not lost at home this year. I'm not that impressed.
Napoli is a superior team and Napoli's last lost was a 10/29 road loss to league best Juventus.
As far as I'm concerned, if we lose this one it's because Fiorentina holds on for dear life and manages a 0-0 tie or gets a fluke goal for a 1-0 but I highly doubt they can contain the leagues highest scoring team....and we get them at only -110
I like the value

Napoli -1/2 -110 

I also found this interesting...

Torino is at home...
They are 7-1 to the o2.5  (5....FIVE of those  7 overs went over 3.5!!)
Genoa is 4-4 to the o2.5 on the road. 
Our only downside is if Genoa can't manage to get a goal and this ends up 2-0
I think I just also convinced myself to take Torino for the WIN. They have 1 home loss to Juventus all year.

Torino/Genoa o2.5 -135
I really thought this would have been lined at 3 -115 or something but 2.5 is either sweeeet or a trap...either way, I'm in.

Torino -1/2 -120
 

 
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