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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
hooter311
Footballguy
I don't think that's what happened here. You were tiptoeing the line and fell off the edge. In a grey market, the house makes the rules.
Chill out, keep calm, and be polite. Its an offshore book, not your credit union. Or you'll end up blacklisted and you'll have something to cry about.
Just trying to help. The books offer a service, and they are there to turn a profit, its on you to stay sharp and operate within their rules. And this is coming from someone that hates rules.
hooter311
Footballguy
Conor is like the Leonardo DaVinci of our time, a brilliant scientist. Conor's art is motion and synergy.Good Posting Judge said:
Conor has had 3 fights in the UFC so far that I had personally capped Conor to have a skill/physical deficit too significant to overcome. Mendes, Aldo, and Alvarez, Each time Conor followed an exact blue print to victory and made each one somehow look easy.
Start with Mendes, who was a 2 week notice replacement for Jose Aldo. Conor accepted the fight with Chad having one of the most impressive college wrestling pedigrees in MMA. Two time All American, Pac 12 wrestler of the year, 2nd in the nation at 141 lbs one year. It also came out a night before the fight that Conor had a torn MCL and already had knee surgery scheduled the Monday after. Chad a clear path to victory, right in his wheel house. Conor knew that Chad had to focus primarily on his weight cut to prep for the fight. He also knew he had a very limited window where he could rely on his knee. Conor pretty much accepted the takedown from Chad early on, and while Conor was on his back and Chad was raining elbows on him, Conor was yapping "Is that all you got, midget?" Goading him to use more energy while Conor saved his. He waited for the stand up, and KO'd Chad.
Next up was Aldo, who at the time was the #1 ranked P4P fighter in MMA, he was on a 19 fight win streak with 10 straight title defenses, He was the only 145 lb Champ in WEC's existence. You can see Conor drilling a series of feights and a short punch in the locker room leading up to the fight. Aldo is on a whole other level than Conor athletically, much like Floyd, and Jose was much closer to his prime. Fight starts, Conor does the same series of feights 3 times as Aldo goes to engage, and the very first punch he throws turns Aldo's lights out. A blue print. Conor grabs the mic and drops the line "Precision beats power, timing beats speed."
Then we have Eddie Alvarez, who relies on a classical pocket boxing style to keep the fight standing and can usually hold his own in a brawl or a technical fight. Conor uses his footwork brilliantly to box Eddie in and set up his laser left. Conor's straight left is as powerful and as accurate as anyone in boxing at the lower weights. That might make me a kook, but I strongly believe that.
The 154 lb limit for the Mayweather fight means 10 ounce gloves instead of 8 which was calculated and smart on Floyd's end. The weight of those gloves will wear on Conor's arms as much of anything, and protect Floyd from the KO. I've noticed members of Conor's camp have been saying they will win within 4 rounds when they were saying 6 rounds a few months ago. I think they are accepting that limited window to set up whatever they are going to set up.
The final factor that keeps running through my mind is that for Floyd, Conor is a one man gatekeeper between him and a billion dollars with a trilogy. All that needs to happen is for Conor to win the first one. For Floyd to hesitate with his shoulder roll, or maybe flinch to a hesitation of Conor's hips and its a 10 second nap for him. One of the very first things Floyd said at the first presser was "I'm here for the fortune, not the fame." Weird thing to have prepared.
Finally, the few times Floyd has looked human in the ring, its been generally against southpaws...
Don't get me wrong, I want to bet Floyd, I know that's the correct play, a 10* play if there ever was one, but I'm seeing the paths to which it could fail.
The Ref
Footballguy
To be fair I've been pounding the table in here on Northwestern and Marshall for a while.ArbyMelt said:Since you are talking NCAAF season wins, I love betting these, its a hobby for me. I usually head out to Vegas to get the early lines (South Point). Some of these are at BOL/SB where they posted the opening CTG lines after they moved a bunch.
Here are some of my bets:
App St O9 (also +185 to win their conference, dead heat rules apply - no champ game)
Ball St O4
Baylor U8
CMU U7
Charlotte U4
Colorado U7.5
Connecticut U4
Col St O7.5
Florida Atlantic O4
Indiana O5.5
Marshall O5 (Phil Steele loves this one)
Mia-FL O8.5
NC State O7
Nebraska O6 and U7.5
North Texas O4
Northwestern O7
Oregon St U5.5
Pitt U7.5
SMU O5
Texas Tech U6
Toledo O8.5
TCU O7
UCF U7.5
Vandy U6
Virginia U5.5
Wake U5.5
Washington O9.5
Wisconsin O9.5
Im also a big fan of that NC state over 7 but it's up to -150 now. Think I'm ok with over 7.5.
That Colorado under is growing on me.
To your point a lot of these have moved considerably over the past 2 weeks so if you were able to get some of these as listed you should be thrilled.
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ArbyMelt
Footballguy
I played all these back in late May (SB/BOL) and early June (South Point). I probably have too much $$$ tied up, but I don't trust the stock market.
I like Northwestern alot. It actually opened at 8.5 at South Point, now down to 8. I think all my bets have moved favorably for me so far. I did miss a few obvious ones (Coastal Carolina U5.5 for example, went to 4 in the first hour) when South Point opened their lines. But when you get a list of 130+ teams, its hard to cipher through all of that. Surprisingly, there were only 4-5 "sharps" there waiting for the sheet and to bet the lines when they came out. Lots of value when Chris Andrews (South Point book mgr) tries to line every FBS school.
Highly recommend Bill Connely's team previews on sbnation. Its my main source of info. Also used Steele's magazine online, but it didn't come out until 2nd week of June.
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The Ref
Footballguy
Interesting.... I had listened to a podcast that had said it was a madhouse when they released lines. They said you could only bet 3 totals for $300-$500 max and then you had to go to the back of the line of you wanted to rebet.
i had a local offer lines for the power 5 early on. Northwestern @7 jumped off the page on me. I think 8.5 is the right number.
i didn't know you were into these *that* much. We should compare notes next June.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Under 5 -140 and then hit it again at under 5 -155.
facook
Footballguy
I think the 3 bets and to the back of the line rule was for games of the year, not season wins. Could be wrong, but that is what is in my head.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Marlins -105 is right on the borderline for me today, but I'm gonna rock with it.
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ArbyMelt
Footballguy
The madhouse was when they released the GOY's and the week 1 lines. I think he mentioned 10-12 "sharps" at both of those.
Chris releases the week 1's first, then the GOY's and sees how those settle before releasing the season win totals.
They had 1 window open for all of these and allowed 3 bets then back of the line. There was absolutely no line for the season win bets. It was really a group of 3-4 guys (Brad Powers was one of them) on laptops crunching the numbers.
Definitely let me know next June to compare notes. I've been out there the past few years for this. Last year I missed out on all the line moves, so I made sure to be out there for the opening lines (Chris tweeted the dates/times in advance for GOY, week 1 and season wins a week in advance).
ETA: I also got the South Point app just so I could monitor the line moves (they never update their sheets). I had the CTG app as well. The South Point app actually lets me log in and see lines even when I'm not in Nevada. That helped a bit when other online shops released all the FBS lines (BOL and a few others).
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The Ref
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Was TT O2.5 -130 F5 (2 units)
Hou TT O3 -120 F5
GLTA
AB
Hou TT O3 -120 F5
GLTA
AB
modogg
Footballguy
like Cummins (wrote Elkins but was a brain fart) a lot too. Grabbed Almeida +165 earlier in the week too,
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It's just annoying. I love sports betting but I hate the games they play when it comes to winning money. It's the same bull#### everywhere in life:
You lose money, they claim right away.
You win money, you wait 48 hours for them to tell you to fill this form out. Then they charge you $50 because it's your second BTC withdrawal this month.
You don't hit on other people's girlfriend but everybody hits on your girlfriend.
It gets old.
I'm just getting sick of these stupid offshore sportsbooks in general. Everybody is a scam. You never get your money in a timely fashion. It's ridiculous.
Win a bet, get cut. Request a payout, get delayed. Win 10 bets in a row, suddenly they only accept recreational (losing) gamblers.
It's all bull#### and the more you win, the more bull#### you have to deal with.
hooter311
Footballguy
Such is life. No sense wasting your energy being mad about it.
Give a man a bro....he'll chill for a day.
Teach a man to chill....he'll have bros for life.
facook
Footballguy
Alright sports fans, I hold a 50-1 Kuchar ticket. Seems almost impossible he catches Spieth tomorrow, especially after we saw the difference in testicular fortitude on 18 today. I had Justin Thomas at the US Open and hedged with a couple of guys not named Koepka. I don't want to make the same mistake tomorrow. If Kuch doesn't pull a horseshoe out of his butt tomorrow, it's all Spieth, right? RIGHT? Thinking of hedging Jordan -375 to win some money but don't want Koepka to plunger me again.
Also got Grace 45-1 but that ain't happening.
Anyway @lumpy19? @hooter311?
Also got Grace 45-1 but that ain't happening.
Anyway @lumpy19? @hooter311?
hooter311
Footballguy
I've liked Kuchar since the beginning. I'd ride out that ticket. Jordan is sitting at -11, but last time the Open was here +3 won it, so the weather could turn this around right quick. This has been the most forgiving rough I can ever remember in a major.
The conditions today were an anomaly. Jordan's conditions all three days have been an anomaly, he's had the most constant favorable conditions as anyone in the field. I think Kuchar is playing better golf and the course fits him better. Jordan was 75th in driving after 2 days, when 76 made the cut, that's going to catch up with him. Also, Jordan isn't Sunday Tiger. He gets in his own head with the slow play and constant talking to himself.
I'd sleep with that Kuchar ticket under my pillow with the intention of cashing it. I don't think Brooks would be the guy to come from behind anyway, more like Matsuyama.
also, nice bet!!!
facook
Footballguy
Dude you were right on the US Open. I shoulda followed your plan. If you're right here.... :boatloads:
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I rolled thru sephora earlier to get some tory burch perfume for one of my chicks and ended up buying it for two of my chicks instead and the saleswoman asked me if my wife, girlfriend, sister, or mom had a sephora rewards card. I was like #####, back up and slapped her in the face - just like like Bigg Flossy B and I was like, "##### I got my own sephora rewards card with my name on it, what a man can't shop at sephora these days? You better apologize to me right now you sexist." And she was like yes sir I apologize for being a sexist let me upgrade you to our VIB club with a free complimentary makeover for your wife and girlfriend.
hooter311
Footballguy
Gastelum may have eaten the buffet table.
Love Chris, but it seems misguided to take this matchup here. Nearly impossible to look good against Gastelum. At 185 he is a mini-Cain man destroyer.
hooter311
Footballguy
@facook
I've used this twitter account as a tool for years. so I trust its math more than my personal opinion. It says I was wrong, I just wanted you to have the info.
www.twitter.com/kenpomgolf
PGA win probability @kenpomgolf 6h6 hours ago
Open Champ (R3 complete): Spieth 77%, Kuchar 15%, Koepka 2%, Matsuyama 2%, D Johnson 1%, Grace 1%, Stenson 1%, Others 1%
I've used this twitter account as a tool for years. so I trust its math more than my personal opinion. It says I was wrong, I just wanted you to have the info.
www.twitter.com/kenpomgolf
PGA win probability @kenpomgolf 6h6 hours ago
Open Champ (R3 complete): Spieth 77%, Kuchar 15%, Koepka 2%, Matsuyama 2%, D Johnson 1%, Grace 1%, Stenson 1%, Others 1%
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Speith all day tomorrow for lota
hooter311
Footballguy
You may want to wait for the weather, there may be scoring conditions early that are drastically different then what the final pairing will have. Kuchar has a very low trajectory ball flight to handle the wind. Jordan has more of a scientific approach. To only hit 10 total fairways the first two days while shooting -6 was nothing short of amazing.
modogg
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
Yeah, you're right I just hate dealing with ####. I'm going to start going to the boat more.
At least those ####s pay you in cash.
facook
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
Crazy thing is, no matter how many majors Jordan wins, his ceiling is only Gary Player good instead of Arnold Palmer or Jack Nicklaus good. Its awesome to watch, and just hard to believe. One thing about the Open coverage is you get to spend 80% of your time watching golf shots instead of 25% like other coverage. Under pressure he's better off with a sand wedge than a driver, and better off putting from 18 ft instead of 4ft. That's hard not to root for. I would lose my "temper" if I ever had to golf behind the guy though. Dilly dallying around talking to himself and what not.
My favorite Open is still the Canadian Open next weekend! Although its not like I need to see any more scoring. Don't give up too much of the Kuch cash though, that's still the one I would want to have.
I'm holding:
The Open Championship 2017 - Odds to Win - Odds to win The Open Championship 2017 - Ross Fisher 11000
The Open Championship 2017 - Odds to Win - Odds to win The Open Championship 2017 - Ian Poulter 8500
But they just couldn't get to the rail before the turn. Kuch not worth the +380 to buy in now.
