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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (10 Viewers)

Going back the last six years, the Saints have scored 25 or more points in 36 of 48 RS home games. That's a 75% clip. And that's good enough for me, I'll play. 

Saints TT O25.5 -115

 
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Chelsea -.5 on a hunch

Malmo has scored 14 in their last 5 going 2-2-1. I like the  o2.5 -145. I kinda like Malmo -1 too

Edit Malmo is Swedish 

 
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TheGooRoo said:
Boss-like.

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Looks like we bet the same amount  :thumbup:

 
When a team opens on the road for the first two weeks of the season and wins game 1(Eagles), last five years they are 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS, 7-1 O/U in game 2. 

KC -5, O47

 
Team to score 1st.

NO +140

I think that is a good number considering what we saw from NE defense. 

NO, while struggling to score should be able to move the ball at home and I think Belicheck tends to defer on opening kick offs?

 
got_nugs said:
He played “Round Waist” off of August... etc, didn’t he.  Father Time beats everyone but Brady.
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He lost the audience a little in the middle with Colorblind and something else stupid, Minnesota either has some good X or he was doing some really stupid air piano crap.

Totally redeemed himself with Long December and Rob Thomas came out for a duet for "Round here", first time I've enjoyed that song in 15 years.  They ended with Rain King as they evacuated everybody from the lightning storm.  Rob promised to play when the storm passed, but I make way too much money to be sitting outside wet and cold.

"Someone stole my shoes, but there's a couple of bananas and a bottle of booze...."

 
hooter311 said:
4-1

+2.95u

Round 3:

Cantlay -112 over Molinari-  Winner

Harman (-.5) +128 over Vegas Winner

Reavie (-.5) +133 over Lovemark Winner

Berger (-.5) +127  over Perez  Loser
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3-1

+2.61u

Nice little 9-2 (+7.56) three day run on golf matchups.  Nothing stuck out today so I'm going to take my ball and go home

 
hagmania said:
Brees @ Home has always been a bajillion times better than Brees on the road, yeah?
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correct.  I'm trying to find Sean Payton coin toss tendencies.  All I could figure out is that through the first 6 games of 2016, the Saints had the ball first 5 times.  And to do that I had to click on each game center.

Anyone know if these stats exist anywhere?

 
Tiger Fan said:
correct.  I'm trying to find Sean Payton coin toss tendencies.  All I could figure out is that through the first 6 games of 2016, the Saints had the ball first 5 times.  And to do that I had to click on each game center.

Anyone know if these stats exist anywhere?
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Pretty sure everybody defers these days unless you're a big dog and trying not to lose steam early.

 
Race is at 3pm eastern....that isn't the best timing for me right now NASCAR.  Get it together!

 
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ChainsawU said:
I want to go against the public on the Skins Rams total. I like the over with Gruden off a SU loss (15-9 O/U; 8-2 O/U away; 10-1 O/U L11 overall) and then on the artificial surface. Let me get the 44 somehow but I'll take 45. Such a weird W1 for the Rams. Skins should be good for 20 points minimum.
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Gruden 15-8 O/U away (14-1 O/U scoring > 19) second-best road team to the over since he was hired (Cards). His road games have gone ≤ 37 seven times and ≥ 44 in the other sixteen.

Redskins/Rams o44 -137

 
Chicago has the similar banking to Vegas, Kansas, and Kentucky tracks.  Truex won all three of those races this year.  Probably shouldn't overthink this one too much...but I'm not laying +275 on a race winner either.

 
Ooh I've got one too.

Since 2010, home teams coming off a Week 1 ATS loss are 15-4-0 (78.9%) ATS in week 2.

Colts +7.5
Saints +7

 
hooter311 said:
Chicago has the similar banking to Vegas, Kansas, and Kentucky tracks.  Truex won all three of those races this year.  Probably shouldn't overthink this one too much...but I'm not laying +275 on a race winner either.
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Two Korean teams in the LOL World Championships are +200 or better to win a 16-team tournament with group stages and knockout rounds.

All I'm saying is I'm facing a similar dilemma.

 
Bradford off the field in warmups, steelers just moved to -9.5 and was getting ready to bet it. 

Steelers still a play or we switching to Minny?

 
Was wearing sandals and stubbed my toe into a shopping cart yesterday. Customer Service only had officially licensed character Band-Aids. Picked Paw Patrol over Finding Dory. Felt pretty confident at the time.

Feels like a gambling allegory about fish and dogs.

 
Using track data from Las Vegas, Kentucky, Kansas, Chicago and goin back to last season so 7 races.

Elliot avg finish 19.7 and that includes 3 top 5s, so the other results were dreadful

Blaney avg finish 11.4 (3rd in series) with 2 top 5's

I'll take it.

Blaney +170 over Elliott

Truex -155 over Larson (15.9 avg finish,2 top 5s)

To win:

Chase Elliott +1486

 
hooter311 said:
He lost the audience a little in the middle with Colorblind and something else stupid, Minnesota either has some good X or he was doing some really stupid air piano crap.

Totally redeemed himself with Long December and Rob Thomas came out for a duet for "Round here", first time I've enjoyed that song in 15 years.  They ended with Rain King as they evacuated everybody from the lightning storm.  Rob promised to play when the storm passed, but I make way too much money to be sitting outside wet and cold.

"Someone stole my shoes, but there's a couple of bananas and a bottle of booze...."
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Did they play Kid Things (the hidden song off of Hard Candy)?  I've seen them twice, long time ago, with either Beck or Fiona Apple can't remember, but didn't hear them do that one.  I'd sit in the rain to wait for Rob if he was walking back out with Santana.  Really liked Counting Crows...also really liked good X.  Enjoy your Sunday!

 
got_nugs said:
Did they play Kid Things (the hidden song off of Hard Candy)?  I've seen them twice, long time ago, with either Beck or Fiona Apple can't remember, but didn't hear them do that one.  I'd sit in the rain to wait for Rob if he was walking back out with Santana.  Really liked Counting Crows...also really liked good X.  Enjoy your Sunday!
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No Kid Things, they opened with a cover of Lean on Me, which was fantastic.

I would have sat through rain as well, but it was a straight up lightning storm and an entirely outdoor venue.  They evacuated everyone to the parking lot and once I was in my heated seats I wasn't getting out.  Also, I was with my 22 year old scalp masseuse and was kind of looking forward to the ride home anyways.

:excited:

 
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Billy Bats said:
My buddy loves ARZ and it's making my stomach turn. 
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"I wouldn't bet that with your money" works in this situation. Just had that conversation with someone teasing non-key numbers on dogs.

ETA: "I'm getting more points, though." :wall:

 
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mquinnjr said:
"I wouldn't bet that with your money" works in this situation. Just had that conversation with someone teasing non-key numbers on dogs.

ETA: "I'm getting more points, though." :wall:
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No doubt. Wish I had the balls to play Indy I feel like that's the right play but they are both godawful. And also Jacoby Brissett. Although he can't be worse than Tolzien. 

 
Instead of matchups, sportsbook.ag now has Driver to Finish Highest and gives you a group of four or five. HIghest odds are around +350. These seem like incredibly negative EV.

For instance

Hamlin +260

Logano +300

Elliott +325

JJohnson  +325

Kenseth +350

 
Billy Bats said:
No doubt. Wish I had the balls to play Indy I feel like that's the right play but they are both godawful. And also Jacoby Brissett. Although he can't be worse than Tolzien. 
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I don't feel like I can make an angle on that game, so it's a no play for me. Like a pre-season game to an extent.

 
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