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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (11 Viewers)

Tiger Fan said:
http://www.wagertalk.com/livelines/

so do you interpret that as total money or # of bets?
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All of the sites I have seen those percentages are the number of tickets.  Sportsinsights offers betting dollars through their subscription that aren't available on their free odds page.

I think if you are going to utilize that data that spreads percentages are vastly more meaningful than totals percentages because the betting limits for spreads are so much higher.  Higher limits = sharper lines.

 
tjnc09 said:
All of the sites I have seen those percentages are the number of tickets.  Sportsinsights offers betting dollars through their subscription that aren't available on their free odds page.

I think if you are going to utilize that data that spreads percentages are vastly more meaningful than totals percentages because the betting limits for spreads are so much higher.  Higher limits = sharper lines.
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Thanks.  Now that you say that, I think Swirve brought that up the other day as well.  I've been drinking a lot this past week.

 
they'll call that kids foot in inconclusive after being brave on these other calls all game.

i jinxed it for ya'll!

 
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I feel like this is a thing right now: "I just lost a lot of money on Washington State, so I'm going to double down and win my money back on Boise State." I bet that is what is happening right now. A lot. link

Baylor +7½ -110

 
Bill Snyder 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS career bowl record:
Lined ≤ -3.5: 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS (avg line -8)
Lined ≥ 0: 0-6 SU and ATS (avg line 5)

link

 
swirvenirvin said:
why the hell were you not on the Gophers.  Wish I would have looked at the line.  Pound town damnit.  Spartans are horrible.  The tournament streak is in real trouble this yr
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mineesota must be awful  The spartans had 2 white doos who are under 6'6" playing center and PF at the same time, one is a walk-on

 
Doctor Detroit said:
:)
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With half of bowl season in the books, the dog ML system up 5U, thanks to a big day today for the ML dogs. Only dog ML I didn't play was Bama, on which I took Bama ML against the Huskies to win 3U. I like it, this bowl season is playing right into the 5 year trends of dogs winning outright at high enough ML odds to squeeze out a profit in generally unpredictable exhibition games.

 
@ToddFuhrman: It might only be Weds morning but the @packers are currently seeing 93% of the tickets for their #SNF game against the @Lions (via Don Best)

 
ArbyMelt said:
Just woke up and checked the box score, its another GooRoo sweeeeeep! Thanks!
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Wow awesome I got pissed and turned it off with about 3 minutes left.  Rypien still was sitting around 235.  The previous 3 series he got about 10 yards and was getting sacked every other play. 

Sweeeeeep indeed

 
The Busy The Tired said:
Tonight's NBA is looking tough. Unless I can pinpoint a few key injuries, might be no action for me.
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There's nothing wrong with that. I'd rather have you pinpoint a few winners than push trying to make something happen and lose. Good night last night. I went 4-0 on the things I tailed you on. You're picks and Goo's props are all that saved me from an epic melt down. Terrible day for me yesterday.

 
I've watched every NU game inside and out and follow the team closely (alma mater) and I have no idea on these props. I would think they have to air it out to beat Pitt, but they don't want to get into a slugfest, so they will try to run Jackson. I'm hoping they can spread them out with the pass and open up the running lanes and keep that Pitt offense off the field. Pitt is horrible against the pass but is stout on the DL (top 10 rush defense). I'm curious what Goo comes up with this game. As far as defense, NU is solid against the run, but I worried about the speed around the corner. Our CB's are young (top 2 starting CB's out for the year), they can be beat. I expect us to play our usual soft cover 4 (playing 8-10 yards off the WR's) and attempt the bend don't break defense, hoping for a mistake, or only a FG in the red zone.

 
ArbyMelt said:
I've watched every NU game inside and out and follow the team closely (alma mater) and I have no idea on these props. I would think they have to air it out to beat Pitt, but they don't want to get into a slugfest, so they will try to run Jackson. I'm hoping they can spread them out with the pass and open up the running lanes and keep that Pitt offense off the field. Pitt is horrible against the pass but is stout on the DL (top 10 rush defense). I'm curious what Goo comes up with this game. As far as defense, NU is solid against the run, but I worried about the speed around the corner. Our CB's are young (top 2 starting CB's out for the year), they can be beat. I expect us to play our usual soft cover 4 (playing 8-10 yards off the WR's) and attempt the bend don't break defense, hoping for a mistake, or only a FG in the red zone.
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I was leaning a Thorson overs play but I haven't seen the number yet.

 
ArbyMelt said:
I made a small play on o270.5 at sb, the others are lined at 279-ish. He's become a good QB, but was inconsistent last few weeks of the year.
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The only 4 teams to NOT go over 278 passing yards against Pitt this year were Villanova, a terrible Marshall team, Georgia Tech (obviously) and Duke.

There were some HUGE games put up against this pass D. I think even at 279'ish over is the play. I kind of question whether or not over 63 is not also in play?

 
regularguy said:
Also :thumbup: to @Tiger Fan for posting that contrarian bowl system article (old thread or this one?) .  Those picks are 6-0 so far.  On NW & Miami today.
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remember only take them if below 33% for the one category.  Ive been trying to post about an hour before if they still fall into that category.

Then Miam and NW are both on the ranked vs unranked and NW is close to the 33% 

 
swirvenirvin said:
remember only take them if below 33% for the one category.  Ive been trying to post about an hour before if they still fall into that category.

Then Miam and NW are both on the ranked vs unranked and NW is close to the 33% 
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Yep, I think the 3rd criteria had to do with ATS records during the regular season.

 
Pitt allowed 2 rushers all year to go over 100 yards, and one was kind of fluky, when Childs of Okie St. did it in 10 carries. One other rusher went over the 92 1/2 currently posted. In the 5 games NW lost this year Justin Jackson went over 92 1/2 yards once. I'm not convinced NW loses here, but still.............

Justin Jackson U92.5  (-115)

 
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