Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Maybe @hooter311 will stop throwing bitcoins at Wisconsin strippers' posteriors for a couple hours and bless us with some kick-punch picks?Angry Beavers said:UFC 218 on Saturday
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I used to live with a dude who played college football middle linebacker. He was from H-Town and had a lot of love. He used to say "money, we play to win championships" referring to his nickname for me and the proverbial we and the proverbial championships that we all either win or lose in this life. His girlfriends would used to buy him jewelry and he would give the jewelry to me when he got a new girlfriend and she was mad that he was wearing his old girlfriends' jewelry. One time he gave me a James Avery alpha omega ring and said "money people will ask you what this means and you will tell them that you wear this because you are the beginning and the ending of everything."
ChainsawU
Footballguy
1974 is a weird year to build a tequila company around. It was a top-shelf celebration with tequila and titos and the server wasn't drinking so I promised her five bucks for every food and drink she came up with that rhymed with titos. Tab was 96, tip 40, and then she came up with six foods that rhymed with titos so that was an additional 35 cash grand total 80 bucks you would be amazed at how many foods and drinks rhyme with titos and then everyone went home happy from a sketchy environment and that's all you can really ask thank you
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Facts do not exist in the future. We can know that the sun came up yesterday and that it shines now, but we can only predict that the sun will come up tomorrow. When Little Orphan Annie sings, she doesn't make a fact-based argument. She wagers. She even admits her case. Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow they'll be sun. Annie concedes. That the sunrise has not yet become a fact. Call it Orphan Annie's Law. The sun only may come up tomorrow. Orphans will bet on anything.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
5dimes down?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I cant stop thinking about if I didn't put most of my bitcoin into my gambling accounts how much money I would have made.
Last edited by a moderator:
lumpy19
Footballguy
I've made a few hundred dollars, all I use it for is gambling funding. Looking back through my transactions I have a few that were in the 10-15 Bitcoin size back when it was in the 800-1k range
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
maybe I was too drunk and thanksgiving but snap count was Vernon Davis was 92% last week? Could have swore I saw Paul in there a ton and Davis just chilling on the sidelines.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
yeah when we cashed out after football was rolling with between 10-15k in there. Bought a bunch of gift cards with the money kept some of it in there, cashed some out, and then put most back in the accounts in the fall time.I've made a few hundred dollars, all I use it for is gambling funding. Looking back through my transactions I have a few that were in the 10-15 Bitcoin size back when it was in the 800-1k range
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Weird. I only tried on mobile. Maybe clear your cache and try again or something?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Yeah it's depressing looking at the logs. Had a $500 deposit in 2016 that would be over $9K now
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Thoughts on the giants raiders game? No Eli. Seeing -7 and no ml
Big League Chew
Footballguy
COOK & lynch overs
cook first td
cook first td
Billy Bats
Footballguy
All my mortgages on Da Raiders. Geno Smith?!? Screw job to Eli?? Can’t believe any of the Giants will give a #### about playing any games left on the schedule.
Eta: @Big League Chew Jump in that 7 now if you like them, line was taken down for me and I’m seeing -8.5 on the score app.
Last edited by a moderator:
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Pucks
Blues -.5 2U -130
straight plays 2-1 +1U
parlays 0-2 -.85U
Blues -.5 2U -130
straight plays 2-1 +1U
parlays 0-2 -.85U
Last edited by a moderator:
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Wagner (mich) o 14p
Matthews (mich) o 9.5r+a
Maye (unc) u 18.5p
Maye (unc) u 9r
Huell (mia) u 13.5p
Huell (mia) u 7r
Mason (min) o 13p
Murphy (min) u 11.5r
Bagley (duke) o 12.5r
Allen (duke) o 14.5p
Allen (duke) o 2.5 made 3
Morgan (ind) o 5.5r
Matthews (mich) o 9.5r+a
Maye (unc) u 18.5p
Maye (unc) u 9r
Huell (mia) u 13.5p
Huell (mia) u 7r
Mason (min) o 13p
Murphy (min) u 11.5r
Bagley (duke) o 12.5r
Allen (duke) o 14.5p
Allen (duke) o 2.5 made 3
Morgan (ind) o 5.5r
Big League Chew
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
As a giants fan i'd be more alarmed that the switch at QB resulted in no movement in the line or total.
Not sure what other teams could say that, the week the bills performed the peterman experiment the line opened at LAC -3.5 and closed at -7.
The browns might be able to announce a QB switch and the line probably wouldn't even go OTB
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
What’s your thoughts on the team overall? They couldn’t care less about Geno starting, right? I can’t imagine any player would rather him than Eli but you would know. Jenkins is out officially too.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
As of today he absolutely does, IMO. His next three weeks will decide his true candidacy but he’s keeping that team afloat by himself. Might even suggest he’s a #### hair ahead of Wentz because of the overall team the Eagles have surrounding him.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Eli seems to be a pretty popular clubhouse guy, I would not touch the Giants this week.
lumpy19
Footballguy
No clue what those guys are thinking. Everything is on tape and it's a highly competitive league, pretty sure everybody is going to be busting their ### no matter who's at QB
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
has only moved a few but not sure if switch the actual players being switched had anything to do, or more sharps/team not giving a ####
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Holy ####. Would anyone guess that the Saints are 14-6-1 ATS last 21 on the road? Including an 11-2 run last 13??? Shocked I am. 
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
Bookmaker taking a position on the coin toss
https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/3002129/9281b02c5d51024904bc1d06f459f958
https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/3002129/9281b02c5d51024904bc1d06f459f958
mquinnjr
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
They post that prop the day after the superbowl, it's been up all year
Means the end of football season is close enough to panic a little bit.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Match tomorrow and like the under already, think dallas stays true as they can to the run game and slow it down
As we brace for December, I've started looking at some "late season" systems that filter games out by week or month. This is something I love to do for every sport, not just football. There are some very simple trends across all sports when looking at the beginning or end of the season, especially when getting extreme and looking at the first or last game, but we'll get to that next month.
ADVERTISEMENT
One system that I've already been following for a few weeks that has brought in substantial, consistent profits involves taking the under in divisional games. When taking the under in any divisional game, at any number and at any point of the season, we already start off in the right direction, as they've hit at a 52.7 percent rate since 2003, per Bet Labs Sports.
However, when focusing only on games in Weeks 9-17 and filtering out lower totals, our winning percentage improves and our return on investment (ROI) goes way up.
Week 13 Contrarian System
ATS RECORD (WIN%)ROI
Division unders723-650 (52.7%)+2.3%
Div. unders, Weeks 9-17383-322 (54.3%)+5.7%
Div. unders, Weeks 9-17, total of 43 or more227-158 (59.0%)+14.5%
Why it works
From a very elementary standpoint, taking the under in division games makes a ton of sense. These teams play each other twice every season and are much more familiar with their players, coaching staffs, and game plans than they are with other teams around the league.
As we can see, this has historically favored the defense. I'm no NFL coaching expert, but it's clearly easier for a defense to figure out and subsequently stop an offense than it is for an offense to figure out and beat a defense.
Though the under still has a winning record in Weeks 1 through 8, the 50.9 percent winning rate is not enough to yield a profit given the juice. Though many of the same pieces of an organization may still be intact from the previous season, teams are bound to change a bit over the summer. The unknown elements play a factor early in the season, but by the second half, an organization will have a much better idea of what to expect from divisional opponents.
The number 43 might appear to be random, and you might be wondering why I chose it, but it's actually a very important number when it comes to betting NFL totals. Since 2003, the total at Pinnacle has closed at 43 on 205 occasions -- the second-most frequent total behind 41, which has occurred 209 times.
In an article last year by my former colleague, David Solar, he found that the most frequent final score total since 2003 was 44. However, since the extra point was moved back, 43 has become increasingly more important. What was once essentially a free point is now slightly more difficult, and it has mattered when it comes to betting on totals.
Week 13 system matches
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
We'll be getting started early this week with a little Thursday Night Football action. Though 85 percent of bettors are taking the over in the early going, the total has dropped from 44.5 to 44 at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore sportsbook, but remains at 44.5 at some other books around the market. This suggests sharp bettors might have the same idea about taking the under.
The Redskins' "over record" of 7-4 is among the best in the league, and with the way the Cowboys' defense has looked as of late, it comes as no surprise that public bettors like the over.
The Pick: Under 44.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome is essentially the Coors Field of the NFL, but don't let that scare you off. A wise man once said that some of the best bets you can make will make you feel uncomfortable.
With 90 percent of bets on the over, this is currently the most lopsided spread of the week. Generally speaking, when the public goes one way, you want to go the other. That is definitely the case here.
The Pick: Under 48
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
With a total of 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, this is the highest total of the week at the time of publication. However, at Pinnacle, this total has dropped from 49.5 to 48.5 since opening -- just like we saw with the Redskins-Cowboys game. Try to shop around and get 49 wherever you can.
The Pick: Under 49
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
I didn't think I was going to have to do too much convincing for people to take the under in a game that Blaine Gabbert is starting for Arizona, but maybe I was wrong. Right now, 86 percent of total bets are on the over.
Obviously, the Rams have had one of the better and most surprising offensive units in the NFL this season. Don't forget about their defense, though, which has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. The first showdown between these teams resulted in a 33-0 L.A. shutout. Perhaps this one won't be as lopsided, but I expect the point total to stay on the low end.
The Pick: Under 45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
This game provides the lowest total of our five matches. At just 43.5, this Monday night division showdown isn't expected to feature many scores. This might surprise some, but the Steelers actually have the best "under record" in the league at 8-3. At 23.5 points per game, their star-studded offense is putting up the fewest points per game since 2012, when receiver Antonio Brown was just a youngster and their lead running back was Jonathan Dwyer.
Though many public bettors may see the offensive superstars playing and expect a flurry of points, that hasn't been the case this season.
The Pick: Under 43.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
As we brace for December, I've started looking at some "late season" systems that filter games out by week or month. This is something I love to do for every sport, not just football. There are some very simple trends across all sports when looking at the beginning or end of the season, especially when getting extreme and looking at the first or last game, but we'll get to that next month.
ADVERTISEMENT
One system that I've already been following for a few weeks that has brought in substantial, consistent profits involves taking the under in divisional games. When taking the under in any divisional game, at any number and at any point of the season, we already start off in the right direction, as they've hit at a 52.7 percent rate since 2003, per Bet Labs Sports.
However, when focusing only on games in Weeks 9-17 and filtering out lower totals, our winning percentage improves and our return on investment (ROI) goes way up.
Week 13 Contrarian System
ATS RECORD (WIN%)ROI
Division unders723-650 (52.7%)+2.3%
Div. unders, Weeks 9-17383-322 (54.3%)+5.7%
Div. unders, Weeks 9-17, total of 43 or more227-158 (59.0%)+14.5%
Why it works
From a very elementary standpoint, taking the under in division games makes a ton of sense. These teams play each other twice every season and are much more familiar with their players, coaching staffs, and game plans than they are with other teams around the league.
As we can see, this has historically favored the defense. I'm no NFL coaching expert, but it's clearly easier for a defense to figure out and subsequently stop an offense than it is for an offense to figure out and beat a defense.
Though the under still has a winning record in Weeks 1 through 8, the 50.9 percent winning rate is not enough to yield a profit given the juice. Though many of the same pieces of an organization may still be intact from the previous season, teams are bound to change a bit over the summer. The unknown elements play a factor early in the season, but by the second half, an organization will have a much better idea of what to expect from divisional opponents.
The number 43 might appear to be random, and you might be wondering why I chose it, but it's actually a very important number when it comes to betting NFL totals. Since 2003, the total at Pinnacle has closed at 43 on 205 occasions -- the second-most frequent total behind 41, which has occurred 209 times.
In an article last year by my former colleague, David Solar, he found that the most frequent final score total since 2003 was 44. However, since the extra point was moved back, 43 has become increasingly more important. What was once essentially a free point is now slightly more difficult, and it has mattered when it comes to betting on totals.
Week 13 system matches
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
We'll be getting started early this week with a little Thursday Night Football action. Though 85 percent of bettors are taking the over in the early going, the total has dropped from 44.5 to 44 at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore sportsbook, but remains at 44.5 at some other books around the market. This suggests sharp bettors might have the same idea about taking the under.
The Redskins' "over record" of 7-4 is among the best in the league, and with the way the Cowboys' defense has looked as of late, it comes as no surprise that public bettors like the over.
The Pick: Under 44.5
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
The Superdome is essentially the Coors Field of the NFL, but don't let that scare you off. A wise man once said that some of the best bets you can make will make you feel uncomfortable.
With 90 percent of bets on the over, this is currently the most lopsided spread of the week. Generally speaking, when the public goes one way, you want to go the other. That is definitely the case here.
The Pick: Under 48
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
With a total of 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, this is the highest total of the week at the time of publication. However, at Pinnacle, this total has dropped from 49.5 to 48.5 since opening -- just like we saw with the Redskins-Cowboys game. Try to shop around and get 49 wherever you can.
The Pick: Under 49
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
I didn't think I was going to have to do too much convincing for people to take the under in a game that Blaine Gabbert is starting for Arizona, but maybe I was wrong. Right now, 86 percent of total bets are on the over.
Obviously, the Rams have had one of the better and most surprising offensive units in the NFL this season. Don't forget about their defense, though, which has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. The first showdown between these teams resulted in a 33-0 L.A. shutout. Perhaps this one won't be as lopsided, but I expect the point total to stay on the low end.
The Pick: Under 45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
This game provides the lowest total of our five matches. At just 43.5, this Monday night division showdown isn't expected to feature many scores. This might surprise some, but the Steelers actually have the best "under record" in the league at 8-3. At 23.5 points per game, their star-studded offense is putting up the fewest points per game since 2012, when receiver Antonio Brown was just a youngster and their lead running back was Jonathan Dwyer.
Though many public bettors may see the offensive superstars playing and expect a flurry of points, that hasn't been the case this season.
The Pick: Under 43.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Looking at my open bets
This was such a ridiculous line from mybookie
PLACED: 01/20/2017 04:51 PM
TOTAL GAMES SEAN MCVAY BEFORE GET FIRED IN 2017-18
TNT
11/27/2017
02:00 AM
[90074] NOT FIRED (REG SEASON) +125
RISK: $100.00
WIN: $125.00
This was such a ridiculous line from mybookie
PLACED: 01/20/2017 04:51 PM
TOTAL GAMES SEAN MCVAY BEFORE GET FIRED IN 2017-18
TNT
11/27/2017
02:00 AM
[90074] NOT FIRED (REG SEASON) +125
RISK: $100.00
WIN: $125.00
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Herm Edwards back at coaching eh
The Ref
Footballguy
Gave this the same look about a week ago. Great call!Looking at my open bets
This was such a ridiculous line from mybookie
PLACED: 01/20/2017 04:51 PM
TOTAL GAMES SEAN MCVAY BEFORE GET FIRED IN 2017-18
TNT
11/27/2017
02:00 AM
[90074] NOT FIRED (REG SEASON) +125
RISK: $100.00
WIN: $125.00
better than my Cooper will lead the raiders in yards bet anyway
Big League Chew
Footballguy
91-47 YTD 66%!!!
Montreal/Ottawa Under 5.5 -125
The Senators are having a hard time finding the back of the net and the last team they want to face right now is the defensive minded Canadiens with Cary Price in net. This will be Price's third start since coming off the disabled list. He's held the opposition to one goal in his last two outings stopping 109 of 111 shots. Montreal seems to be surging since his return and I see them winning this one as well late.
+102 BOL
Montreal/Ottawa Under 5.5 -125
The Senators are having a hard time finding the back of the net and the last team they want to face right now is the defensive minded Canadiens with Cary Price in net. This will be Price's third start since coming off the disabled list. He's held the opposition to one goal in his last two outings stopping 109 of 111 shots. Montreal seems to be surging since his return and I see them winning this one as well late.
+102 BOL
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Got St Louis o34The Ref said:
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
JFC the chick on NFL net right now and her dress 
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Stupid kids are watching sponge bob...JFC the chick on NFL net right now and her dress
