Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Glad someone got paid on those. I had under 45.5 in a parlay with GA +3.5 (as the last two legs from the weekend) - got paid on GA +3.5, but that missed FG was a pretty good size swing for me....
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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
dino259
Footballguy
Kenny Anderson
Watched in on the small 13 inch TV in the bedroom when I was in high school
regularguy
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
The Vikings defense allowed opponents' to convert just 25% of their 3rd down opportunities all season. Next closest was 32%. Last season, top defense was 34%. They started recording the stat in 1991. No defense has EVER been at 25%.
Last three games: 15%
Last three games: 15%
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
And the Saints the underdogs are getting 63% right now... Oh yeah
VIKINGS
VIKINGS
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
I lost $2,000 on the Raptors last night, let's see if they can win me that money back today...
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
Was just telling my wife a few days ago that Nebraska PG Glynn Watson reminds me of Kenny Anderson. I'm a homer. And old.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
I lost $600 on Pacers / Bucks Q1 over. Then, I lost $2,000 on 1H Raptors spread.
I was going to bet on 1H Alabama spread but was tired of losing money at that point.
It was Alabama or nothing for me last night. What has Georgia ever won?
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Big League Chew
Footballguy
Tennessee ml -125
butler o159 -110
bc +14 -110
texas tech o162 -110
1st Half OKC -4.5
1st Half Orlando + 4
Chicago ML -113
lakers u212
orlando u215
butler o159 -110
bc +14 -110
texas tech o162 -110
1st Half OKC -4.5
1st Half Orlando + 4
Chicago ML -113
lakers u212
orlando u215
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
It's paid to beat up on OKC their past two games.
https://s14.postimg.org/otx0t8hwx/IMG_20180109_221606.png
https://s14.postimg.org/5c2ddb84h/IMG_20180109_221514.png
https://s14.postimg.org/otx0t8hwx/IMG_20180109_221606.png
https://s14.postimg.org/5c2ddb84h/IMG_20180109_221514.png
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Duke -18
Notre Dame +1
Xavier +9
Texas -2
Notre Dame +1
Xavier +9
Texas -2
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Lucky push on the under 139Anyone else take it raw tonight on the Over 140 in the Michigan-Purdue game?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Got a sweet new job offer
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
had purdue -1.5Anyone else take it raw tonight on the Over 140 in the Michigan-Purdue game?
stupid hass hoss whatever the giants name is
ETA never hit submit.. Bwahaha ####u mybooki
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Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Liked the Pacers at -4 for game, waited for the 1H lines to be released. Full game is now +5.
1H was at Pacers -2.5. I put $2,200 on it at SB.ag and I moved the line to 1H - Pacers -3.
1H - Pacers -2.5 (if you can find it)
1H was at Pacers -2.5. I put $2,200 on it at SB.ag and I moved the line to 1H - Pacers -3.
1H - Pacers -2.5 (if you can find it)
gussy
Footballguy
This dude is a big effing deal! lol. Way better than Em whatever his name was. This effer is actually MOVING lines! Hope us small fry can keep up with his high rolling ways.
gussy
Footballguy
Sony Open:
Leishman +1200 (.4 units)
Kisner +2000 (.4 units)
Zach Johnson +2500 (.4 units)
CH3 +3800 (.2 units)
Uihlein +5000 (.2 units)
Harman +1800 (.4 units)
Not near as much value on Harman, who was +3200 last week, or Leishman, who was +1700 last week, in a shorter, but stronger field, but I think if anyone
is going to knock off the Speith/JT types, it's probably one of those two. I'll post some matchups here in a minute.
Last week down just under 3 units.
Hudson Swafford O J. Walker (-125)
Ryan Armour O J. Walker (-105)
Leishman +1200 (.4 units)
Kisner +2000 (.4 units)
Zach Johnson +2500 (.4 units)
CH3 +3800 (.2 units)
Uihlein +5000 (.2 units)
Harman +1800 (.4 units)
Not near as much value on Harman, who was +3200 last week, or Leishman, who was +1700 last week, in a shorter, but stronger field, but I think if anyone
is going to knock off the Speith/JT types, it's probably one of those two. I'll post some matchups here in a minute.
Last week down just under 3 units.
Hudson Swafford O J. Walker (-125)
Ryan Armour O J. Walker (-105)
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Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
I'm going to slow down here soon, I keep flirting with being up $10,000 since my last cash deposit.
I keep losing the bet that gets me there.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Big Underdogs In Games With A Sub-50 Total
OVERS
Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won+16.41
ROI+49.7 percent
Why it works
Since the 2003-04 playoffs, 'dogs getting a touchdown or more have performed very well against the spread. At this point of the season, the large majority of the teams remaining are quite good and capable of covering a 7-point spread, regardless of their opponent. We even saw how Buffalo was able to cover last week.
When games are expected to be lower scoring, these big 'dogs have been even more successful. This is generally the case all season long because the fewer points that are scored, the better probability a 'dog has of covering. By omitting games with a total of 50 or higher, we erase five wins and eight losses from our record.
If you are a bit more of a thrill seeker, you'll be happy to know that these big 'dogs have actually been more profitable on the moneyline. This includes a solid victory for the Titans this past weekend at +369.
Big Underdogs On Moneyline Since 2003 Postseason
OVERS
Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won+16.41
ROI+49.7 percent
As a Patriots fan, I wish everyone luck who wants to bet the Titans straight up; may want to stick to the spread on that one. However, we all saw earlier in the year that the Jaguars are capable of beating the Steelers, so it wouldn't be outlandish to think they could do so again.
Matches
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite destroying the Steelers at Heinz Field back in October, the Jaguars are 7.5-point underdogs once again. They closed at that exact line before beating up on Big Ben and the Steelers defense in a 30-9 victory.
There's no denying Jacksonville's defensive prowess, but the big question is whether the Jaguars can score enough points to keep up with Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. So far, only 37 percent of bettors are backing Blake Bortles and the Jags even though they are getting more than a touchdown. Bortles was able to channel his inner Michael Vick against Buffalo, but he also struggled mightily passing the ball.
Given Roethlisberger's immobility and Brown's uncertain health, the Steelers could struggle in the passing game. Tyrod Taylor managed only 134 yards in the air last week, and in the first meeting between these two teams, the Jags' pressure caused a Nathan Peterman-esque five interceptions from Roethlisberger.
Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Tennessee Titans (+13.5) at New England Patriots
Shockingly enough, it appears there is already some sharp action on the Titans in the early going. After opening at +13.5, Tennessee has moved to +13 across much of the offshore market behind 27 percent of bets and 56 percent of dollars.
In a Twitter poll conducted by The Action Network, the majority of the public said they would need at least 17 points to take Tennessee. It took a miraculous play by Marcus Mariota for the Titans to take down the Chiefs, and many bettors believe their luck won't carry over to this week. Add in the fact that many people believe the Patriots' most recent controversy will help motivate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and you get the perfect storm to go contrarian and take Tennessee.
Pick: Titans +13.5
Bonus pick
We're going to go back to the well and touch on last week's "dome overs," which have now gone 26-8 dating back to 2003.
Saints at Vikings
Two teams used to playing indoors will take shelter from the cold up in Minnesota this Sunday. The Saints put up 31 points against Carolina this past weekend, doing their part and then some to help us go over the closing total of 47.5. The total for this game has already risen from 44.5 to 45 across the market despite Minnesota's No. 1-ranked defense and the Saints' surprisingly good defense, which allowed the 10th-fewest points per game during the regular season. The Pick: Over 45
OVERS
Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won+16.41
ROI+49.7 percent
Why it works
Since the 2003-04 playoffs, 'dogs getting a touchdown or more have performed very well against the spread. At this point of the season, the large majority of the teams remaining are quite good and capable of covering a 7-point spread, regardless of their opponent. We even saw how Buffalo was able to cover last week.
When games are expected to be lower scoring, these big 'dogs have been even more successful. This is generally the case all season long because the fewer points that are scored, the better probability a 'dog has of covering. By omitting games with a total of 50 or higher, we erase five wins and eight losses from our record.
If you are a bit more of a thrill seeker, you'll be happy to know that these big 'dogs have actually been more profitable on the moneyline. This includes a solid victory for the Titans this past weekend at +369.
Big Underdogs On Moneyline Since 2003 Postseason
OVERS
Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won+16.41
ROI+49.7 percent
As a Patriots fan, I wish everyone luck who wants to bet the Titans straight up; may want to stick to the spread on that one. However, we all saw earlier in the year that the Jaguars are capable of beating the Steelers, so it wouldn't be outlandish to think they could do so again.
Matches
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite destroying the Steelers at Heinz Field back in October, the Jaguars are 7.5-point underdogs once again. They closed at that exact line before beating up on Big Ben and the Steelers defense in a 30-9 victory.
There's no denying Jacksonville's defensive prowess, but the big question is whether the Jaguars can score enough points to keep up with Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. So far, only 37 percent of bettors are backing Blake Bortles and the Jags even though they are getting more than a touchdown. Bortles was able to channel his inner Michael Vick against Buffalo, but he also struggled mightily passing the ball.
Given Roethlisberger's immobility and Brown's uncertain health, the Steelers could struggle in the passing game. Tyrod Taylor managed only 134 yards in the air last week, and in the first meeting between these two teams, the Jags' pressure caused a Nathan Peterman-esque five interceptions from Roethlisberger.
Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Tennessee Titans (+13.5) at New England Patriots
Shockingly enough, it appears there is already some sharp action on the Titans in the early going. After opening at +13.5, Tennessee has moved to +13 across much of the offshore market behind 27 percent of bets and 56 percent of dollars.
In a Twitter poll conducted by The Action Network, the majority of the public said they would need at least 17 points to take Tennessee. It took a miraculous play by Marcus Mariota for the Titans to take down the Chiefs, and many bettors believe their luck won't carry over to this week. Add in the fact that many people believe the Patriots' most recent controversy will help motivate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and you get the perfect storm to go contrarian and take Tennessee.
Pick: Titans +13.5
Bonus pick
We're going to go back to the well and touch on last week's "dome overs," which have now gone 26-8 dating back to 2003.
Saints at Vikings
Two teams used to playing indoors will take shelter from the cold up in Minnesota this Sunday. The Saints put up 31 points against Carolina this past weekend, doing their part and then some to help us go over the closing total of 47.5. The total for this game has already risen from 44.5 to 45 across the market despite Minnesota's No. 1-ranked defense and the Saints' surprisingly good defense, which allowed the 10th-fewest points per game during the regular season. The Pick: Over 45
gussy
Footballguy
I do like the Jags here. I think it's trending towards 7.5 and if I can get it without laying extra juice I will be on the Jags.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
The Steelers lost to the The Steelers lost to the Jaguars 30-9 in Week 5 Since 2012, there have been 13 teams to face a team in the playoffs after losing to that team by 20+ points in the regular season Those teams went 1-12 in the postseason rematch (2014 Ravens avenged 20-point loss to Steelers)gussy said:
Big League Chew
Footballguy
michigan st TT o78
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I am confuse. In the last week I heard "No other woman can do what I do to you," "We are perfect for each other," and "I don't want to share you with anyone." Then last night she sit on my ####, turn around, and say, "You know I am lesbian." And then I woke up at 2PM. She's been hanging out with life-size human Barbie woman and I think they might be lesbians together. All very confuse.
