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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (10 Viewers)

I'm on the "Belichick/Brady after playing on Thursday last game" angle: 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS

Patriots 1H o14 -160
NE HT & NE FT +103
Patriots 1st Half -6½ +165

 
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Highly recommends Saturday/Sunday :cornhole: fora accessible FFAWT guys at the Ocean in AC. It's an awesome sports book, really done well. Revel rebrand and cheap rooms is an awesome value if you're on the east coast and want a social sports book experience. Hung with friends today and all had a blast. No drink tickets is bad form, but I can get past that.

 
facook said:
Twitter SNF Trend

Play Against road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (KANSAS CITY) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, after the first month of the season. 

25-6 over the last 10 years

Over the last 3 seasons 7-1

NE -3 1H

Also under 59.5

Also 7 pt tease under 66.5 and GB -2.5.
Click to expand...
NE 1H.... great call... Thanks!

 
It might be too early for college basketball, but I'm seeing Kansas at +850 to win the title.That's extremely good value if you believe the NCAA isn't going to do anything until after the FBI is done investigating. The Lawson brothers + what they return and bring in is going to be super salty. They're consensus #1 (or at least #1a), and you can get them at # 4 odds? Okay. I'll probably put some bitcoin down on Dedric Lawson as national player of the year if I can find it.

In the "If John Mellancamp ever wins an Oscar, I'm going to be a very rich dude" category: I love Miss. State this year. They return everyone from a very solid NIT Final Four team from last year PLUS they add McDonald's All American Reggie Perry. The recruitment of Perry was undeniably dirty, but again if you believe reports that the NCAA isn't doing any investigating until at least the offseason, that shouldn't matter very much. An old group of solid players adding elite freshman talent is literally the recipe for mediocre programs to do damage. I'm going to sprinkle some money on them as heavy longshots to make the Final Four, but more realistically, I'm going to hammer them early until Vegas realizes how good they are.

Similar deal with UCF. They were garbage last year if you ignore that they were 8th in KemPom D efficiency. Their offense was trash but that's because of injuries to Tacko Fall (who incidentally is the reason we have Mike Dahm) and BJ Taylor. 

So for Miss St. and UCF, you're getting great value on teams that are going to be anywhere from 3 to 5 seeds if you're interested in loooongshot futures bets. At least they'll be good values for the first few weeks until people catch up. Miss St. is already appearing in preseason top 25s, but their futures odds don't reflect that.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Oh, right. Suddenly it's about respect, something which I don't get from the majority here.

Yeah, okay.
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You don't get it because you're the type of guy that thinks Matt Breida moves lines, right after touting that you're one of the best in the world at gambling.

Not sure why that's so hard to understand?

 
Rirruto said:
It might be too early for college basketball, but I'm seeing Kansas at +850 to win the title.That's extremely good value if you believe the NCAA isn't going to do anything until after the FBI is done investigating. The Lawson brothers + what they return and bring in is going to be super salty. They're consensus #1 (or at least #1a), and you can get them at # 4 odds? Okay. I'll probably put some bitcoin down on Dedric Lawson as national player of the year if I can find it.

In the "If John Mellancamp ever wins an Oscar, I'm going to be a very rich dude" category: I love Miss. State this year. They return everyone from a very solid NIT Final Four team from last year PLUS they add McDonald's All American Reggie Perry. The recruitment of Perry was undeniably dirty, but again if you believe reports that the NCAA isn't doing any investigating until at least the offseason, that shouldn't matter very much. An old group of solid players adding elite freshman talent is literally the recipe for mediocre programs to do damage. I'm going to sprinkle some money on them as heavy longshots to make the Final Four, but more realistically, I'm going to hammer them early until Vegas realizes how good they are.

Similar deal with UCF. They were garbage last year if you ignore that they were 8th in KemPom D efficiency. Their offense was trash but that's because of injuries to Tacko Fall (who incidentally is the reason we have Mike Dahm) and BJ Taylor. 

So for Miss St. and UCF, you're getting great value on teams that are going to be anywhere from 3 to 5 seeds if you're interested in loooongshot futures bets. At least they'll be good values for the first few weeks until people catch up. Miss St. is already appearing in preseason top 25s, but their futures odds don't reflect that.
Click to expand...
In total agreement with you on UCF here. I would anticipate that Vegas won't open lines with a lot of value there, but if they're in any public type games early public money
could give them some value. Two totally different teams with Taco vs. without Taco

 
gussy said:
You don't get it because you're the type of guy that thinks Matt Breida moves lines, right after touting that you're one of the best in the world at gambling.

Not sure why that's so hard to understand?
Click to expand...
I'm sorry you don't understand that Matt Breida is an emerging talent in the NFL. In case you've missed it, Matt Breida is averaging 7.5 YPC and has the 8th highest yards per game (73.8 YPG) in the NFL. He has the 11th most rushing yards in the entire NFL despite playing in one less game than the 10 players above him. 

I have the burden of being an early adopter. I notice trends and can notice intangibles in players before the late majority catches on. That is why I am good at sportsbetting. The bookies seek to exploit the late majority and that gives me opportunity.

It's like any other example in sports, Jamaal Charles was just a scatback until he wasn't. It's all perception. Rewards go to those who are earliest onto the bandwagon 

If you don't see that Matt Breida is a perfect fit at running back in the modern NFL, that's your shortcoming. The league has changed a lot over the past 2 seasons. It's not a detriment to my foresight that you see him as "just another guy" instead of a top player at his position.

Have you seen him play? There's a reason he has more 20+ yard runs (6) than any other runningback in the league not named Saquan Barkley (who has 7 but has played in an extra game). There's a reason he has the 2nd highest 1st down conversion rate (30.6%) of all NFL runningbacks besides only Alvin Kamara (33.9%). He is in good company.

You see player names instead of performance on the field. You probably write him off as just a scatback. Well, guess what? He's only just a scatback, until you decide that he's not.

Perception is reality.

@Walking Boot give this a read too, since you don't seem to get it either.

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
I'm sorry you don't understand that Matt Breida is an emerging talent in the NFL. In case you've missed it, Matt Breida is averaging 7.5 YPC and has the 8th highest yards per game (73.8 YPG) in the NFL. He has the 11th most rushing yards in the entire NFL despite playing in one less game than the 10 players above him. 

I have the burden of being an early adopter. I notice trends and can notice intangibles in players before the late majority catches on. That is why I am good at sportsbetting. The bookies seek to exploit the late majority and that gives me opportunity.

It's like any other example in sports, Jamaal Charles was just a scatback until he wasn't. It's all perception. Rewards go to those who are earliest onto the bandwagon 

If you don't see that Matt Breida is a perfect fit at running back in the modern NFL, that's your shortcoming. The league has changed a lot over the past 2 seasons. It's not a detriment to my foresight that you see him as "just another guy" instead of a top player at his position.

Have you seen him play? There's a reason he has more 20+ yard runs (6) than any other runningback in the league not named Saquan Barkley (who has 7 but has played in an extra game). There's a reason he has the 2nd highest 1st down conversion rate (30.6%) of all NFL runningbacks besides only Alvin Kamara (33.9%). He is in good company.

You see player names instead of performance on the field. You probably write him off as just a scatback. Well, guess what? He's only just a scatback, until you decide that he's not.

Perception is reality.

@Walking Boot give this a read too, since you don't seem to get it either.
Click to expand...
Well thank god you're here to enlighten all of us. Such a burden you carry. A non QB skill position player affects a line .5-2.5 points.
I'm fairly certain the drop-off from Breida to Morris isn't much more than a .5 difference. I'm not saying that that is what it SHOULD be,
I'm just saying that that's what it WILL be.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Chiefs / Patriots should go over 59.5 points easy. One of these teams will put up 40 themselves. Wouldn't be surprised to see 80+ points scored.

There's your lock.
Click to expand...
Or both!  Nice call

 
49ers MNF
Since 1996 the 49ers are 23-8 SU and 25-5-1 ATS on Monday Night Football. They're 10-1 SU and ATS on MNF since 2009, winning by 19±5 ppg.

 
@gussy Any idea why we're back down to a 6 total for the Maple Leafs/Kings game tonight?  Both teams have the backups in net, I would have thought we're looking at a 6.5 or 7 again.

 
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