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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (3 Viewers)

lumpy19 said:
Don't know about props but just opened a new jazzsports.ag acct, looks like it will be good for props(they have MLB player props) and 100% CASH bonus on 1k deposit
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literally just opened them up from finding them at sbreview.  Was thinking the same that it looks good

 
swirvenirvin said:
literally just opened them up from finding them at sbreview.  Was thinking the same that it looks good
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Their old interface was brutal, could only bet 1 prop at a time, hoping this new version can handle multiple bets without sending me into a line change error, so aggravating I didn't use them last year

 
Tiger Fan said:
Here's one for the HOF Game.  It's under the 20% ROI, but it is the HOF game......I'm just not really sold on the theory behind it.

Preseason early weeks Over on totals 35 and below

  • Weeks 1-2 generally pretty random with minimal starters playing and not much predictability
  • Thought is that you take a low key # like 35 and play the over
Cons

  • Similar to above, downside is that you have to wait right until close to make the play (take a 2% dip in ROI at 34.5, and a huge dip down to 9% at 34)
  • Doesn't really pass the "Glide" test, if the theory were to hold true and it goes over at 35, it should go over at a similar (or larger) clip for 34.5, 34, 33.5, etc...and it doesn't


https://ibb.co/98XpHkG
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Parlaying this with Den -2.5 for action

 
Broncos!

Never a doubt

ETA just looked at the play by play, glad I didnt stay up to watch.  ATl threw a pick, and Denver converted on 2 4th downs.  One by defensive PI, and other 4th and 15 for a TD

 
Last edited by a moderator:
swirvenirvin said:
Broncos!

Never a doubt

ETA just looked at the play by play, glad I didnt stay up to watch.  ATl threw a pick, and Denver converted on 2 4th downs.  One by defensive PI, and other 4th and 15 for a TD
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I, for one, enjoyed the sweat with Denver and the under even if it was only .5 units in play. #degenerate

 
That Saskatchewan last night was one of the more compelling football games I ever seen. A Gimpy Fajardo almost did us in though. Luckily he got a combination of what appeared to be adrenaline and also some artificial painkillers, probably. Totally compelling game though. Especially with the play calling. Damn. First and Goal and they called two running plays to score the go-ahead touchdown, the second of which was some type of quarterback draw or option that a Gimpy Fajardo scored on by tapping the pylon with the football before violently careening out of bounds. Some compelling ### ####! Fo Reals. I thought it was over. I feel you on how stressful football can be. I really thought the game was over.. and I was gonna look like a big ##### for betting the popular pick. I think Hamilton had another dude injured that pushed the line even more, even AFTER the public realized the road dog was featuring a QB who'd never started a game before. People love betting & fading QBs but Fajardo really made that impact last night. Threading the needle, overcoming injury, making good decisions with the ball, no turnovers, and balling out for the come-from-behind victory. Compelling game.

 
ATS record for preseason (O/U is listed 2nd)

Bill Belichick39-37-6 (51.3%)40-40-2

Andy Reid38-39-4 (49.4%)44-36-1

Mike Tomlin24-26 (48.0%)20-30

Pete Carroll33-16 (67.3%)23-26

Sean Payton26-23 (53.1%)22-23-4

John Harbaugh30-15 (66.7%)20-24-1

Jon Gruden18-12-3 (60.0%)15-18

Jason Garrett11-21-1 (34.4%)14-16-3

Ron Rivera17-14-1 (54.8%)18-14

Mike Zimmer14-7 (66.7%)8-12-1

Bruce Arians10-9-2 (52.6%)11-10

Jay Gruden11-9 (55.0%)7-13

Bill O’Brien11-7-1 (61.1%)6-13

Doug Marrone8-8-1 (50.0%)7-10

Dan Quinn4-12 (25.0%)5-10-1

Pat Shurmur6-7 (46.2%)6-6-1

Doug Pederson7-5 (58.3%)4-8

Adam Gase5-7 (41.7%)8-3-1

Sean McVay4-4 (50.0%)3-4-1

Matt Nagy3-2 (60.0%)4-1

Frank Reich4-0 (100.0%)1-3

Matt Patricia1-3 (25.0%)3-1

Mike Vrabel0-4 (0.0%)2-2

 
Most profitable active preseason coaches:

John Harbaugh: 29-15-1 ATS, +12.8 units

Pete Carroll: 23-12-1 ATS, +9.46

Mike Zimmer: 14-7 ATS, +6.7

Jon Gruden: 14-8-2 ATS, +4.9

Frank Reich: 4-0 ATS, +4.0

Least profitable active preseason coaches:

Mike Vrabel: 0-4 ATS, -4.0 units

Andy Reid: 28-32-1 ATS, -5.0

Bill Belichick: 25-31-4 ATS, -7.6

Dan Quinn: 4-12 ATS, -8.3

Jason Garrett: 11-20-2 ATS, -9.3

 
Roughriders even had a play last night - last play of the 1H - where Fajardo rolled out like he was going to just chunk it into the endzone deep, but punted instead - trying for the 1-pointer as a "better than nothing" score going into halftime. Tiger Cats caught it in the end zone and barely squeaked out a one-yard gain to avoid giving up the point, but it was good to see SASK trying to add more points like that. The Saskatchewan 1H o13 pushed, but it would've been pretty sweet to win that bet out of nowhere like that.

 
lumpy19 said:
Their old interface was brutal, could only bet 1 prop at a time, hoping this new version can handle multiple bets without sending me into a line change error, so aggravating I didn't use them last year
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Looks like a strong candidate, massive $25 limits on a new account on strikeout props  <_<

 
Montreal goes up 9-0 but quarterback landed on his nut sack in the process. Look like he gonna be okay tho. Just bought Redblacks +11.5 -109 even so..

 
ChainsawU said:
Aside from Bombers/Argos those L3 CFL games look pretty intriguing. Lines haven't dropped yet but I think all three home teams should be laying approximately the same number of points in each game. Say -4 on all the home teams. Roughriders looked nice beating the F out of the Lions while Hamilton lost their QB for the season. Alouettes coming off the bye while Redblacks barely lost to Stamps (which sucks because Alouettes would have seen a ton of value this week if Redblacks had freakin' won). And then the Stampeders at home; winning games but not covering spreads. I'd say Als -4 and Saskatchewan/Calgary each at -6 to drop on the open..
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Chain where you at on Mos/Stamps tomorrow?  Line opened much more in favor of Edmonton than you figured, and I kinda lean Eskimos.

 
Going back to the well this year

To win their leagues

Juventus -300

Barcelona -250

Bayern -440

Considering MC at -250 but seems a bit steep considering the talent gap ia closer in EPL

 
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