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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

McVay 22-3 SU and 16-8-1 ATS when the Rams lay more than 3.. looks like the situation next 5 weeks in a row. Rams went 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS in those games when they didn't have a division matchup to prepare for next week. Steelers on the other hand, Tomlin historically strong looking at a short week.. But McVay 6-0 SU and ATS in the eastern time zone; three of those this season alone. And McVay 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS vs AFC; only loss in the Super Bowl vs the Pats.. Rams seem too easy I think I like them.

 
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Anybody in the legal states using fanduel sportsbook?  I had been using only DK and brick and mortar, but I think I'm going to get Fanduel with their promotions. 

My question is on the $500 first refund, do you guys see a clear strategy?  I don't want to do something dumb.  At first glance, I would guess a big underdog maximizes value the most because it makes it more likely the refund isn't "wasted" and the payout is big if it is.... does that seem right?  What kind of bet would you be looking at?

If you're interested, I believe the deal is make a first time deposit to FD Sportsbook, your first bet up to $500 is refunded if you lose.  You have to play through the refund as if it's a bonus, but that's probably not a concern for me or most of this thread. 

 
cheese said:
Anybody in the legal states using fanduel sportsbook?  I had been using only DK and brick and mortar, but I think I'm going to get Fanduel with their promotions. 

My question is on the $500 first refund, do you guys see a clear strategy?  I don't want to do something dumb.  At first glance, I would guess a big underdog maximizes value the most because it makes it more likely the refund isn't "wasted" and the payout is big if it is.... does that seem right?  What kind of bet would you be looking at?

If you're interested, I believe the deal is make a first time deposit to FD Sportsbook, your first bet up to $500 is refunded if you lose.  You have to play through the refund as if it's a bonus, but that's probably not a concern for me or most of this thread. 
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Would also like some direction on optimizing a free bet. The matches are easy. This takes more consideration. 

 
cheese said:
Anybody in the legal states using fanduel sportsbook?  I had been using only DK and brick and mortar, but I think I'm going to get Fanduel with their promotions. 

My question is on the $500 first refund, do you guys see a clear strategy?  I don't want to do something dumb.  At first glance, I would guess a big underdog maximizes value the most because it makes it more likely the refund isn't "wasted" and the payout is big if it is.... does that seem right?  What kind of bet would you be looking at?

If you're interested, I believe the deal is make a first time deposit to FD Sportsbook, your first bet up to $500 is refunded if you lose.  You have to play through the refund as if it's a bonus, but that's probably not a concern for me or most of this thread. 
Click to expand...
I did FD in PA, live in PA and work in NJ so I’ve :mansion: all of these already. I go game of the week play between college and pro and just churn through, been a really good year Starting in the summer and going slow and steady. Lost like 2 bets, and broke even on the back end with the refunds. I’d go real slow and play the no brainers, with the refund it’s near or at +EV if you go very strong play only, don’t impulse or action these. Also study the rules extremely closely, each book is different. I setup an excel spreadsheet and risk ranked all the book bonuses, and moved through best to worst, avoiding a few with high rollover like DraftKings and 888bet altogether.

 
anyone remember last ncaab season some guy on twitter? was saying when the favorite has over a certain % of made 3-pointers to take the opposite team second half? 

 
Big League Chew said:
anyone remember last ncaab season some guy on twitter? was saying when the favorite has over a certain % of made 3-pointers to take the opposite team second half? 
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I think that was a system someone in here came up with. I still think about it all the time. Today, just now, the Pistons were like 65% from the field in the 1Q and I thought about it. That's all I got tho. Also, not sure about the 2nd half team totals for nba but agree that would be sweet data to have cheers homie

 
Big League Chew said:
anyone remember last ncaab season some guy on twitter? was saying when the favorite has over a certain % of made 3-pointers to take the opposite team second half? 
Click to expand...


ChainsawU said:
I think that was a system someone in here came up with. I still think about it all the time. Today, just now, the Pistons were like 65% from the field in the 1Q and I thought about it. That's all I got tho. Also, not sure about the 2nd half team totals for nba but agree that would be sweet data to have cheers homie
Click to expand...
Yeah I talked about it, I think @gussy (pours one out) did too. It came from some twitter tout.  The system was if one team shoots 70% on 3s with at least 10 3-point attempts in the first half, fade that team in the 2nd half.  Gussy and I realized early on that only worked if you weren't fading an elite team vs a lesser team in teh 2nd half.  If the teams are fairly even in talent, it's a pretty good system.

 
  • Silva and them talking about play volume with Jets & Giants up in pace.
  • Since last season teams who average less than 26.5 ppg 12-3 O/U vs Jets.
  • Since last season teams averaging less than 3 touchdowns 11-3 O/U vs Jets.
  • During that same time Jets 4-0 to the over after playing L2 games on the road.
Giants o22½ -133
Giants/Jets o44½ -108

 
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