swirvenirvin
Footballguy
all rb's te's and slot.. partially why I played the u3.5 at halftime.
Didn't have time or didn't want to even attempt throws to the outside
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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
Didn't have time or didn't want to even attempt throws to the outside
lumpy19
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
RN sighting on same topic on Twitter!
https://twitter.com/RNs_Funhouse/status/808520108234698752
Gotta check the house rules! Ties lose is literally supporting terrorism, that's just an awful way to lose.
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Peyton Marino
Footballguy
I saw Purdum tweet about this earlier this morning. Has to be one of the most -EV bets anyone has ever made. Ties lose parlays are horrid and some of the lines in there were pretty terrible as well.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
would have been hard to hedge even if you wanted to. you get it at +7 you still push and win nothing, cant play +6.5 and I don't think +7.5 was too widely available (or at all)
also that's a situation that would totally happen to me
also that's a situation that would totally happen to me
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
I'm getting $8,000 from that bar fight!
WilliamBonney
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
I'd be buying to 7.5, so -140 or -150 depending on what they charge for the 7
IF I hedged, but I wouldn't do that
Last edited by a moderator:
gussy
Footballguy
Early Puck Action:
Kings/Sabres O5 (-110)
Hawks/Rangers U5 (+110)
The system also calls for U2.5 plays on the TT's of the Hawks and the Rangers, in fact you can get plus money on the Rangers TT U2.5. I stayed away because I want to see how the Hawks look with both Toews and Seabrook back tonight. I do think the way both Raanta and Darling are playing right now gives me some confidence on the overall under.
Kings/Sabres O5 (-110)
Hawks/Rangers U5 (+110)
The system also calls for U2.5 plays on the TT's of the Hawks and the Rangers, in fact you can get plus money on the Rangers TT U2.5. I stayed away because I want to see how the Hawks look with both Toews and Seabrook back tonight. I do think the way both Raanta and Darling are playing right now gives me some confidence on the overall under.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
Overall fine, from a gambling standpoint, outside of my early hockey plays, whatever the opposite of a ripper is, I'm on it the last 4 weeks. Up about 4 units on first week of hockey plays, bleeding profusely everywhere else.How's it going buddy?
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
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The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
1H - Minnesota Timberwolves O51.5, -130
Both teams well rested, not a huge road trip for the Twolves. Think Karl Anthony-Towns is gonna have a big game on the boards and scoring; Lopez can't contain him.
Team gonna be playing hard for Thibs!
Both teams well rested, not a huge road trip for the Twolves. Think Karl Anthony-Towns is gonna have a big game on the boards and scoring; Lopez can't contain him.
Team gonna be playing hard for Thibs!
Last edited by a moderator:
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Last night a woman said she'd be able to "kick it" one night this week, and it was weird because she's never said that. So today I went to Academy, took a photo of myself holding two soccer balls, and captioned it We can kick it on Thursday, to which she replied nice balls, now I don't know about you but down here in Texas that's what we call ourselves a keeper thank you.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
Q1 - Warriors -3.5, -110
You got Durant, Curry, and Thompson on the floor. One of them gets hot from 3 and they cover by like 12.
Similar to a Patriots (Tom Brady) blind bet.
You got Durant, Curry, and Thompson on the floor. One of them gets hot from 3 and they cover by like 12.
Similar to a Patriots (Tom Brady) blind bet.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Didn't realize this was a thing. Now I gotta look!regularguy said:Of course not. My buddy's account & mine are both limited to $5 on normal prop bets and now $10 on 2H prop bets.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
You want to start covering Q1 spreads GS? More like Golden State LOSERS!
That'a two in a row, I blame that jerkoff Durant.
That'a two in a row, I blame that jerkoff Durant.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
Q2 - Warriors -5.5, -130
Double down on that #####.
Double down on that #####.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
#### this, I'm going to bed.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
Nevermind, this covered. Gonna spam all three Knicks ML.The Busy said:
Q1 - Knicks, 1H - Knicks, Full Game - Knicks
Last edited by a moderator:
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
Also taking,
2H - Bulls / Timberwolves O100, -110
2H - Bulls / Timberwolves O100, -110
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
Oh sure, come alive in the 3rd quarter Golden State. What a useless team...
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
#### tonight.
I think the link was in the old thread (which is dead now)...but last year I'm pretty sure someone posted a link to a site that aggregated all of the bowl picks against the spread in certain site's pools. I used this to bet against them and pick that way in pools.
Am I crazy here?
Am I crazy here?
Thank god for facebook tracking me across the web. While not exactly what I was looking for, This article literally popped up in my feed:
ESPN.com: Chalk[Print without images]
Monday, December 12, 2016
Updated: December 13, 11:27 AM ET
How contrarian bettors can profit during CFB bowl season
By David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
Anyone familiar with Sports Insights knows we advocate a contrarian approach to sports betting. Like contrarian investing, this strategy is characterized by placing funds behind unpopular stocks (or teams) in contrast to prevailing opinions. A contrarian believes mob psychology -- which is largely comprised of casual "weekend warrior" bettors -- can lead to exploitable mispricing.
Within the framework of the sports betting marketplace, most bettors can be categorized as either "sharps" or "squares." Sharps, who are alternatively referred to as wise guys or betting syndicates, spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected, sharps are a smaller group that moves lines across the marketplace. They are not necessarily defined by the size of their wager, but rather by their winning track record and consistent ability to get the best of the number.
The majority of bettors can be categorized as squares, who casually place wagers based on gut feelings and instinct, rather than data analytics and model building. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore tend to pound favorites and overs. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.
Widespread pessimism about a team can lead to one-sided betting. This influx of public money often causes sportsbooks to mitigate their risk by adjusting the line, and forcing casual bettors to take a bad number on the popular side of the game. Although they're not necessarily looking to balance their books, oddsmakers excel at accounting for public money, and often shade their opening line to account for known biases.
Using a contrarian philosophy, many strategies can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one cornerstone, but there are additional ways bettors can use public betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends. Using our historical college football database, I have identified three ways that bettors can win during bowl season.
Betting against the public
At Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.
Sportsbooks will adjust their point spreads based on public money only in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but bowl season represents a unique opportunity for bettors. With higher-quality matchups and more attention paid to every game, sportsbooks experience much larger handles -- particularly from casual bettors desperate for action. This influx of public money creates value for bettors looking to fade the public.
For more information on this topic I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant at the offshore sportsbook, Bookmaker.eu. "Obviously the major bowls generate a much bigger handle, but all of them receive pretty good action," Cooley said. "The major bowls will do more in handle than a game during the World Series, outside of Game 7."
With more money at stake, sportsbooks become increasingly willing to shade their lines to account for public money. "The public still has little impact on the odds, but maybe a bit more than normal because the sharps aren't involved in every bowl," Cooley said. Typically sharp bettors are more selective and like to pick their spots. That's much easier during the regular season when there are 50-plus games being played every Saturday.
Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Leading up to kickoff, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, when there's more public money and less sharp money entering the marketplace, oddsmakers are forced to change their standard procedure.
My research found the average bowl game receives more than three times as many bets than an average regular-season college football game. When I focused exclusively on larger games (specifically BCS bowls and College Football Playoff games) the number of bets are more than five times greater than the average regular-season game. Since the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, it shouldn't be surprising to see that betting against the public yields impressive returns during bowl season.
Since 2005, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 4,336-4,411 ATS (49.6 percent) during the regular season and 195-174 ATS (52.8 percent) during bowl season. When we look at games with more extreme splits between the betting public, those results improve substantially.
NCAAF Bowl Season - Betting Against
Public bettingRegular season ATSBowl season ATS
Less than 50 percent of spread bets4,336-4,411 (49.6 percent)195-174 (52.8 percent)
Less than 40 percent of spread bets2,961-3,062 (49.2 percent)120-84 (58.8 percent)
Less than 33 percent of spread bets2,133-2,208 (49.1 percent)65-34 (65.7 percent)
Also worth noting is the performance of underdogs during bowl season. These are typically evenly matched teams, which leads to competitive games. By simply taking the points, bettors gain a slight edge. Since 2005, underdogs have gone 192-184 ATS (51.1 percent) in bowl games. For comparison, 'dogs have gone 4,452-4,455 (50 percent) in regular-season games over that time.
As most bettors already know, "3" and "7" are the most common margins of victory in college football and grabbing the best of any key number is vital to long-term sports betting success. It's always crucial to shop for the best line before placing a wager, but that's particularly true around key numbers.
During bowl season, underdogs of at least 3 points have gone 150-140 ATS (51.7 percent) but underdogs of at least 3.5 points have gone 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent). Similarly, underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 68-63 ATS (51.9 percent) and underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 56-47 ATS (54.4 percent).
Based on the current levels of public betting, 11 underdogs are offering contrarian value during bowl season. For what it's worth, bettors should wait until closer to kickoff to place their wagers, since one-sided public betting on their opponent will likely allow bettors to get a better number.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday.
1. Dec. 17, Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTSA (+7) receiving 31 percent of bets against New Mexico.
2. Dec. 23, Popeye's Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+4) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Old Dominion.
3. Dec. 23, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (+3.5) receiving 27 percent of spread bets against Louisiana Tech.
4. Dec. 26, St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami Ohio (+12) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Mississippi State.
5. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.
6. Dec. 27, National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (+6.5) receiving 22 percent of spread bets against Washington State.
7. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against Pittsburgh.
8. Dec. 30, Franklin American Mortgage City Bowl: Nebraska (+3) receiving 32 percent of spread bets against Tennessee.
9. Dec. 31, College Football Playoff semifinal: Washington (+15.5) receiving 33 percent of spread bets against Alabama.
10. Jan. 2, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Western Michigan (+7.5) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Wisconsin.
11. Jan. 2, Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn (+4) receiving 26 percent of spread bets against Oklahoma.
Unranked teams vs. ranked opponents
For years, I have argued that ranking systems are flawed across all major college sports. Fans and media alike often tout the talent of a team based on their standings in the national rankings, but what do these rankings really tell us?
The Associated Press Top 25 rankings are formulated in a survey of 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. Most fans believe, based on the knowledge and insight of these media members, the ranking system is accurate. I disagree. Most of these writers are focused on a specific team or conference, and can't possibly watch every other team across the nation.
As an example, LSU is ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, yet the Tigers would likely be favored against half the teams listed above them. In fact, several oddsmakers I spoke with argued that LSU would be favored against No. 5 Penn State. Clearly this is a flawed metric, yet casual bettors place an inordinate amount of value on these rankings.
Fans often overrate teams when they see any type of ranking next to a school, and it's clear that these rankings are imperfect because we occasionally see unranked schools listed as road favorites against ranked opponents. Being a successful contrarian bettor means always questioning mainstream narratives and capitalizing on these types of widely accepted opinions. When a ranked team plays against an unranked opponent, oddsmakers understand casual bettors will act on instinct and take the ranked team almost every time. Since they anticipate this one-sided action, sportsbooks will shade their opening number to force casual bettors to take a bad number when backing the ranked team. This has historically created value for opportunistic bettors.
During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.
Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent).
AP Top 25 Poll is Overvalued
CriteriaATS recordUnits wonROI
Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team43-32 (57.3 percent)+8.60+11.5 percent
Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team, Against Public40-28 (58.8 percent)+9.64+14.2 percent
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records
There are currently seven unranked teams facing off against a ranked opponent but, surprisingly, only three of them are being ignored by the majority of public bettors.
1. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against No. 23 Pittsburgh.
2. Dec. 28, Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Florida (+3) receiving 41 percent of spread bets against No. 16 West Virginia.
3. Dec. 30, Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina (+3.5) receiving 35 percent of spread bets against No. 18 Stanford.
Buy low on bad ATS teams
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss and, conversely, the most favorable time to bet against a team is after a victory.
For bettors, the term "loss" may seem ambiguous since our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. But what happens when the same teams repeatedly burn bettors? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Antoine Walker as the casino, panic sets in and bettors begin to overreact. They vow to never let those same teams burn them again. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.
My research found that bettors have historically overreacted to teams that have performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Since casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that have consistently failed to cover the spread, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for one-sided public betting. Once again, by capitalizing on public perception we're able to extract contrarian value.
Teams with an ATS winning percentage of less than 50 percent have gone 120-96 ATS (55.6 percent) during bowl season. This figure was somewhat misleading since games featuring two teams with losing ATS records would always result in a 1-1 ATS record. By eliminating all duplicates, the record improves to 88-64 ATS (57.9 percent).
When we look at teams that have performed horribly against the spread, our records improve considerably. Since 2005, teams with an ATS win rate of 33 percent or less have gone 30-13 ATS (69.8 percent) during bowl season. That includes a 19-6 ATS (76 percent) record when they're receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.
Bowl Teams With Poor ATS Winning Percentage
CriteriaATS RecordUnits wonROI
ATS Record <50 percent88-64 (57.9 percent)+20.05+13.2 percent
ATS Record <33 percent30-13 (69.8 percent)+16.26+37.8 percent
ATS Record <33 percent, Receiving <50 percent of spread bets19-6 (76.0 percent)+12.65+50.6 percent
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records
Duplicates are hidden since they will always result in 1-1 ATS record
There are seven teams who finished the 2016 regular season with an ATS winning percentage of 33 percent or lower: Baylor (3-9), Boise State (3-9), Maryland (4-8), South Alabama (3-8), Southern Mississippi (3-8), TCU (3-9) and Texas A&M (4-8). Surprisingly, four of these teams are actually receiving the majority of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. That means there are only three "buy-low" candidates that are also providing bettors with contrarian value.
1. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.
2. Dec. 30, Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama (+13) receiving 47 percent of spread bets against Air Force.
3. Dec. 30, AutoZone Liberty Bowl: TCU (+1) receiving 24 percent of spread bets against Georgia.
At the time of publication, there are 15 teams offering value during bowl season with Northwestern (+5.5) and Baylor (+8.5) the only teams fitting multiple contrarian systems. That said, it's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming weeks for latest information.
ESPN.com: Chalk[Print without images]
Monday, December 12, 2016
Updated: December 13, 11:27 AM ET
How contrarian bettors can profit during CFB bowl season
By David Solar
Special to ESPN.com
Anyone familiar with Sports Insights knows we advocate a contrarian approach to sports betting. Like contrarian investing, this strategy is characterized by placing funds behind unpopular stocks (or teams) in contrast to prevailing opinions. A contrarian believes mob psychology -- which is largely comprised of casual "weekend warrior" bettors -- can lead to exploitable mispricing.
Within the framework of the sports betting marketplace, most bettors can be categorized as either "sharps" or "squares." Sharps, who are alternatively referred to as wise guys or betting syndicates, spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected, sharps are a smaller group that moves lines across the marketplace. They are not necessarily defined by the size of their wager, but rather by their winning track record and consistent ability to get the best of the number.
The majority of bettors can be categorized as squares, who casually place wagers based on gut feelings and instinct, rather than data analytics and model building. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore tend to pound favorites and overs. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.
Widespread pessimism about a team can lead to one-sided betting. This influx of public money often causes sportsbooks to mitigate their risk by adjusting the line, and forcing casual bettors to take a bad number on the popular side of the game. Although they're not necessarily looking to balance their books, oddsmakers excel at accounting for public money, and often shade their opening line to account for known biases.
Using a contrarian philosophy, many strategies can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one cornerstone, but there are additional ways bettors can use public betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends. Using our historical college football database, I have identified three ways that bettors can win during bowl season.
Betting against the public
At Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.
Sportsbooks will adjust their point spreads based on public money only in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but bowl season represents a unique opportunity for bettors. With higher-quality matchups and more attention paid to every game, sportsbooks experience much larger handles -- particularly from casual bettors desperate for action. This influx of public money creates value for bettors looking to fade the public.
For more information on this topic I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant at the offshore sportsbook, Bookmaker.eu. "Obviously the major bowls generate a much bigger handle, but all of them receive pretty good action," Cooley said. "The major bowls will do more in handle than a game during the World Series, outside of Game 7."
With more money at stake, sportsbooks become increasingly willing to shade their lines to account for public money. "The public still has little impact on the odds, but maybe a bit more than normal because the sharps aren't involved in every bowl," Cooley said. Typically sharp bettors are more selective and like to pick their spots. That's much easier during the regular season when there are 50-plus games being played every Saturday.
Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Leading up to kickoff, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, when there's more public money and less sharp money entering the marketplace, oddsmakers are forced to change their standard procedure.
My research found the average bowl game receives more than three times as many bets than an average regular-season college football game. When I focused exclusively on larger games (specifically BCS bowls and College Football Playoff games) the number of bets are more than five times greater than the average regular-season game. Since the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, it shouldn't be surprising to see that betting against the public yields impressive returns during bowl season.
Since 2005, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 4,336-4,411 ATS (49.6 percent) during the regular season and 195-174 ATS (52.8 percent) during bowl season. When we look at games with more extreme splits between the betting public, those results improve substantially.
NCAAF Bowl Season - Betting Against
Public bettingRegular season ATSBowl season ATS
Less than 50 percent of spread bets4,336-4,411 (49.6 percent)195-174 (52.8 percent)
Less than 40 percent of spread bets2,961-3,062 (49.2 percent)120-84 (58.8 percent)
Less than 33 percent of spread bets2,133-2,208 (49.1 percent)65-34 (65.7 percent)
Also worth noting is the performance of underdogs during bowl season. These are typically evenly matched teams, which leads to competitive games. By simply taking the points, bettors gain a slight edge. Since 2005, underdogs have gone 192-184 ATS (51.1 percent) in bowl games. For comparison, 'dogs have gone 4,452-4,455 (50 percent) in regular-season games over that time.
As most bettors already know, "3" and "7" are the most common margins of victory in college football and grabbing the best of any key number is vital to long-term sports betting success. It's always crucial to shop for the best line before placing a wager, but that's particularly true around key numbers.
During bowl season, underdogs of at least 3 points have gone 150-140 ATS (51.7 percent) but underdogs of at least 3.5 points have gone 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent). Similarly, underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 68-63 ATS (51.9 percent) and underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 56-47 ATS (54.4 percent).
Based on the current levels of public betting, 11 underdogs are offering contrarian value during bowl season. For what it's worth, bettors should wait until closer to kickoff to place their wagers, since one-sided public betting on their opponent will likely allow bettors to get a better number.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday.
1. Dec. 17, Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTSA (+7) receiving 31 percent of bets against New Mexico.
2. Dec. 23, Popeye's Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+4) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Old Dominion.
3. Dec. 23, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (+3.5) receiving 27 percent of spread bets against Louisiana Tech.
4. Dec. 26, St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami Ohio (+12) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Mississippi State.
5. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.
6. Dec. 27, National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (+6.5) receiving 22 percent of spread bets against Washington State.
7. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against Pittsburgh.
8. Dec. 30, Franklin American Mortgage City Bowl: Nebraska (+3) receiving 32 percent of spread bets against Tennessee.
9. Dec. 31, College Football Playoff semifinal: Washington (+15.5) receiving 33 percent of spread bets against Alabama.
10. Jan. 2, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Western Michigan (+7.5) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Wisconsin.
11. Jan. 2, Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn (+4) receiving 26 percent of spread bets against Oklahoma.
Unranked teams vs. ranked opponents
For years, I have argued that ranking systems are flawed across all major college sports. Fans and media alike often tout the talent of a team based on their standings in the national rankings, but what do these rankings really tell us?
The Associated Press Top 25 rankings are formulated in a survey of 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. Most fans believe, based on the knowledge and insight of these media members, the ranking system is accurate. I disagree. Most of these writers are focused on a specific team or conference, and can't possibly watch every other team across the nation.
As an example, LSU is ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, yet the Tigers would likely be favored against half the teams listed above them. In fact, several oddsmakers I spoke with argued that LSU would be favored against No. 5 Penn State. Clearly this is a flawed metric, yet casual bettors place an inordinate amount of value on these rankings.
Fans often overrate teams when they see any type of ranking next to a school, and it's clear that these rankings are imperfect because we occasionally see unranked schools listed as road favorites against ranked opponents. Being a successful contrarian bettor means always questioning mainstream narratives and capitalizing on these types of widely accepted opinions. When a ranked team plays against an unranked opponent, oddsmakers understand casual bettors will act on instinct and take the ranked team almost every time. Since they anticipate this one-sided action, sportsbooks will shade their opening number to force casual bettors to take a bad number when backing the ranked team. This has historically created value for opportunistic bettors.
During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.
Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent).
AP Top 25 Poll is Overvalued
CriteriaATS recordUnits wonROI
Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team43-32 (57.3 percent)+8.60+11.5 percent
Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team, Against Public40-28 (58.8 percent)+9.64+14.2 percent
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records
There are currently seven unranked teams facing off against a ranked opponent but, surprisingly, only three of them are being ignored by the majority of public bettors.
1. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against No. 23 Pittsburgh.
2. Dec. 28, Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Florida (+3) receiving 41 percent of spread bets against No. 16 West Virginia.
3. Dec. 30, Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina (+3.5) receiving 35 percent of spread bets against No. 18 Stanford.
Buy low on bad ATS teams
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss and, conversely, the most favorable time to bet against a team is after a victory.
For bettors, the term "loss" may seem ambiguous since our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. But what happens when the same teams repeatedly burn bettors? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Antoine Walker as the casino, panic sets in and bettors begin to overreact. They vow to never let those same teams burn them again. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.
My research found that bettors have historically overreacted to teams that have performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Since casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that have consistently failed to cover the spread, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for one-sided public betting. Once again, by capitalizing on public perception we're able to extract contrarian value.
Teams with an ATS winning percentage of less than 50 percent have gone 120-96 ATS (55.6 percent) during bowl season. This figure was somewhat misleading since games featuring two teams with losing ATS records would always result in a 1-1 ATS record. By eliminating all duplicates, the record improves to 88-64 ATS (57.9 percent).
When we look at teams that have performed horribly against the spread, our records improve considerably. Since 2005, teams with an ATS win rate of 33 percent or less have gone 30-13 ATS (69.8 percent) during bowl season. That includes a 19-6 ATS (76 percent) record when they're receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.
Bowl Teams With Poor ATS Winning Percentage
CriteriaATS RecordUnits wonROI
ATS Record <50 percent88-64 (57.9 percent)+20.05+13.2 percent
ATS Record <33 percent30-13 (69.8 percent)+16.26+37.8 percent
ATS Record <33 percent, Receiving <50 percent of spread bets19-6 (76.0 percent)+12.65+50.6 percent
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records
Duplicates are hidden since they will always result in 1-1 ATS record
There are seven teams who finished the 2016 regular season with an ATS winning percentage of 33 percent or lower: Baylor (3-9), Boise State (3-9), Maryland (4-8), South Alabama (3-8), Southern Mississippi (3-8), TCU (3-9) and Texas A&M (4-8). Surprisingly, four of these teams are actually receiving the majority of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. That means there are only three "buy-low" candidates that are also providing bettors with contrarian value.
1. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.
2. Dec. 30, Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama (+13) receiving 47 percent of spread bets against Air Force.
3. Dec. 30, AutoZone Liberty Bowl: TCU (+1) receiving 24 percent of spread bets against Georgia.
At the time of publication, there are 15 teams offering value during bowl season with Northwestern (+5.5) and Baylor (+8.5) the only teams fitting multiple contrarian systems. That said, it's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming weeks for latest information.
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WilliamBonney
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
fantasy advice time. Semi-finals of a PPR Dynasty
do I play Edelman vs Broncos or does he get shut down?
other choices would be Forte (knee gives me pause)
Ingram/Hightower (messy situation right now)
Jeffery (1st game back...who knows what I'm getting)
DeSean Jackson (hard to know what he's gonna do with his 3 or 4 catches)
Boldin (been fairly productive but limited upside)
playing a team with David Johnson, Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown so I need every point I can get
do I play Edelman vs Broncos or does he get shut down?
other choices would be Forte (knee gives me pause)
Ingram/Hightower (messy situation right now)
Jeffery (1st game back...who knows what I'm getting)
DeSean Jackson (hard to know what he's gonna do with his 3 or 4 catches)
Boldin (been fairly productive but limited upside)
playing a team with David Johnson, Leveon Bell and Antonio Brown so I need every point I can get
WilliamBonney
Footballguy
Jules - He will get his 6-8 catches and is due for a trip to the endzone.
ETA - Althoough I do expect the Pats to run the ball considering Devnver has issues against the run and Blount to have a big day too.
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Man I had one on the Magic straight up win yesterday. But the sample size turned me off, it seemed arbitrary, and I was afraid. They were up by 10 at the half and I was like, "Man I hope they lose because I didn't bet them." Since 2013 opposing teams versus the Hawks are now 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS when the teams are coming in on a combined > 4 days' rest (8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS as the dog; 10-0 ATS as the dog lined ≥ 3). It sucks not throwing 100 on the ML; silver lining is that the situation happens twice more this season. link
After the ASB and The Day Before Valentines Day ♥
After the ASB and The Day Before Valentines Day ♥
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TheGooRoo
Footballguy
How does the rest of your team look, any home run hitters? All the players that you listed are in the 10 (+/- 2) point range on paper. I wouldn't pencil Edelman in for anything more than 6-60. You have injury concerns, timeshares, bad matchups, and even bad weather to overcome. Jeffery and Jackson probably have the highest ceilings, but with relatively low floors. Sometimes your opponents strength forces you to opt for the boom/bust players because an 80 point output just won't cut it, looks like this might be one of those times. Who are your other starters?
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Yo the 2P in Buffalo last night was the greatest moment in sports. I was carrying on so loudly that my dog started joining in - she doesn't really know hockey and had no idea why she was celebrating - but she knew it was good, and at 15 years old that's a pretty good moment for her.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Ran up from 2-6 to lead this team into the semi's. It's either going to be awesome or a total 
this weekend.
10-team standard:
Luck
Zeke
Martin
Tyfreak
Watkins
Eifert
Riddick/Thomas
Minny
M. Bryant
For the bolded flex - Lean Thomas for HR potential and if he practices this week. Riddick goes off at 1PM Thomas at 4PM. If Thomas not practicing or GTD, Riddick for sure goes into the lineup. Reply if in disagreement.
this weekend.10-team standard:
Luck
Zeke
Martin
Tyfreak
Watkins
Eifert
Riddick/Thomas
Minny
M. Bryant
For the bolded flex - Lean Thomas for HR potential and if he practices this week. Riddick goes off at 1PM Thomas at 4PM. If Thomas not practicing or GTD, Riddick for sure goes into the lineup. Reply if in disagreement.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
yeah I finished 4th in points overall but one of those high floor/low ceiling type teams where I don't really have a superstar (although Murray has had a pretty amazing year)
here is full rooster with current starters in bold (left out a few dynasty stash type guys). Need to start 7 total between RB/WR/TE
QB
PALMER
LUCK
TYROD TAYLOR
RB
DEMARCO MURRAY
BLOUNT
FORTE
INGRAM
HIGHTOWER
WR
EDELMAN
FITZGERALD
DEMARIYUS THOMAS
JEFFERY
DESEAN JACKSON
BOLDIN
TE
EIFERT
EBRON
Also have TUCKER and SEAHAWKS D going
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I was bored so I took a look at Bovada's futures for the Kentucky Derby this year. Then I found a ranking of possible contenders. Horse Racing Nation's (sounds legit!) rankings have Three Rules as the fourth best horse, and he's 75-1 at Bovada. So I bet it. For fun! You all should too.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Horse racing futures are some of the worst bets you can make. Imagine having a bet on say Purdue for the NCAA title but then the entire team gets laminitis and decides they'll just get healthy and focus on next year
Frostillicus
Footballguy
That pretty much happens to me with at least one NCAA future bet every year anyway.
Also why do you hate fun?
