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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
facook
Footballguy
@Tiger Fan You posted that contrarian bowl article from E S P N the other day. Any interest/willingness to post what their Chalk site says to play on props tonight? Every once in a while I catch those. Kinda interesting.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
amazing how bad bookmaker opening lines are espescially if lump got 16.5 and then how fast they moved them (up to 18.5)
Wilson O 16 Fp heritage
Wilson O 16 Fp heritage
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Spread: Opened Seattle -12.5; now Seattle -16
Total: Opened 38.5; now 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Seattle
Public perception: The public is all over the Seahawks (and the pick percentage was even higher at lower numbers) as they have everything to play for. Meanwhile, the Rams just lost their head coach, have a short week and also have to travel.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps also jumped on Seattle -12.5 at the Westgate (and at -13 to -14 at other books) but they've backed away as the line steamed over two touchdowns. They now will be more likely to grab the Rams as huge underdogs.
Dave Tuley's take: I have no problem with this being a double-digit line -- in fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings that we're a part of here at ESPN have the Seahawks rated 10 points better than the Rams on a neutral field. With Seattle's formidable home-field advantage it's reasonable to have this line around -13.5 or -14, but every half-point it climbs over two touchdowns gets more and more ridiculous.
Granted, the Rams are in disarray, and the short week doesn't help under the circumstances. That said, the coaches and players have the game plan that helped them beat these same Seahawks 9-3 back in Week 2, so they can lean on that. Besides, the Seahawks have had two other games this month where they struggled to score (losing 38-10 and 14-5). They shouldn't be laying this many points to anyone.
The usually reliable double-digit unders are only 3-5 ATS this season, but I expect them to rally late to get to .500 -- starting with this game.
Pick: Los Angeles +16
Rufus Peabody: While Los Angleles finally(!) fired its perennially mediocre coach, Jeff Fisher, the move comes at an odd time, since the team has only a few days to prepare to face Seattle. Luckily, both the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator remain the same, and I assume they were the ones doing most of the game planning anyway. While the Rams are a very bad team, their ugly loss to Atlanta last week was a bit misleading. In reality, they only played about 13 points worse "fundamentally", and were hurt by a minus-5 turnover differential. For a team as unpredictable from week to week as Seattle, a spread of 16 points is too high.
Pick: Los Angeles +16
Massey-Peabody line: Seattle -12.6
Erin Rynning: A myriad of issues seemingly make this game a tricky proposition. Certainly the Seahawks should bounce back like they've done so often after a poor performance. Their 38-10 loss definitely qualifies as poor, especially QB Russell Wilson and his five interceptions. However, the tax is high as well with the Seahawks favored by over two touchdowns. Maybe the larger question is whether or not the Rams show up this week after being outscored 117-45 over the last three weeks. Firing a head coach on the short week is almost inconceivable in the NFL and it's blurry as to how the team will compete in this match-up. Of course, it's difficult to envision a Rams offense led by Jared Goffsuddenly waking up, but the defense -- and perhaps a motivated front seven -- has created many issues in the past for the Seahawks.
Pick: Pass
Prop bets
John Parolin
17.5 completions by Jared Goff (O/U -110)
Understatement alert: Goff hasn't had the easiest rookie year. He sat for 10 weeks before his first start in Week 11, a four-point loss to the Dolphins, and then lost his next three games by an average of 24 points. After his running back called his offense a "middle school" unit, Goff's head coach was fired on Monday. The team named his replacement approximately 77 hours before the team kicks off against the Seahawks, the NFL's best scoring defense for each of the last four years. Other than that, everything's going fine.
All that aside, just how low is 17.5 as a total? There have been 208 games in the NFL this year (416 "team" games). In 81 percent of those games, teams have managed to throw at least 18 completions. Don't get caught up in the 38 points Aaron Rodgers hung on Seattle last week -- the Seahawks defense is obviously an effective unit. But in pure completions allowed per game, the Seahawks rank 11th with 21.5 per game. Considering there's a prop on "Will the Rams EVER have the lead?", it's not unreasonable to assume Goff will need to throw a LOT. It won't be pretty, and it likely won't be effective, but he's averaged 18.8 completions in his four starts this season. It should be enough.
The play: Over
22.5 completions by Russell Wilson (O/U -110)
While there's a very likely outcome for the visitors (and an overmatched quarterback), the home quarterback has a pretty wide range of outcomes. Fresh off a five-interception performance against the Packers in Week 14, Wilson is back at home against the Rams. Wilson's home and away splits are pronounced. He's completed over two-thirds of his passes at home for an extra yard per attempt compared to his road numbers.
Does a more effective overall game equate to a high volume of completions? The Rams defense allows a 66.1 completion percentage on the road, right around Wilson's at 66.8 at home. Using 66 percent as the benchmark, Wilson needs 35 pass attempts to reach 23 completions. He's done that in seven of 13 games this season, including both of his last two efforts. Also, he may get a bump from the defense he's playing, as Los Angeles has allowed an average of 27.0 completions per game on the road -- a total exceeded only by the woeful Falcons secondary (28.6).
The play: Over
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Total: Opened 38.5; now 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Seattle
Public perception: The public is all over the Seahawks (and the pick percentage was even higher at lower numbers) as they have everything to play for. Meanwhile, the Rams just lost their head coach, have a short week and also have to travel.
EDITOR'S PICKS
- http://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/s...tuations-actually-win-games-last-weeks-season
Week 15 contrarian NFL betting strategy
How often do NFL teams in "must-win" situations actually win those games in the last few weeks of the season? That's the NFL system we're examining in Week 15.
- http://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/s...nta-falcons-best-week-15-nfl-eliminator-picks
Best Week 15 NFL Eliminator picks
If you've made it through another week of the Eliminator Challenge, congratulations. The road gets no easier from here. We give you the best selections to help you survive a tricky Week 15.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps also jumped on Seattle -12.5 at the Westgate (and at -13 to -14 at other books) but they've backed away as the line steamed over two touchdowns. They now will be more likely to grab the Rams as huge underdogs.
Dave Tuley's take: I have no problem with this being a double-digit line -- in fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings that we're a part of here at ESPN have the Seahawks rated 10 points better than the Rams on a neutral field. With Seattle's formidable home-field advantage it's reasonable to have this line around -13.5 or -14, but every half-point it climbs over two touchdowns gets more and more ridiculous.
Granted, the Rams are in disarray, and the short week doesn't help under the circumstances. That said, the coaches and players have the game plan that helped them beat these same Seahawks 9-3 back in Week 2, so they can lean on that. Besides, the Seahawks have had two other games this month where they struggled to score (losing 38-10 and 14-5). They shouldn't be laying this many points to anyone.
The usually reliable double-digit unders are only 3-5 ATS this season, but I expect them to rally late to get to .500 -- starting with this game.
Pick: Los Angeles +16
Rufus Peabody: While Los Angleles finally(!) fired its perennially mediocre coach, Jeff Fisher, the move comes at an odd time, since the team has only a few days to prepare to face Seattle. Luckily, both the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator remain the same, and I assume they were the ones doing most of the game planning anyway. While the Rams are a very bad team, their ugly loss to Atlanta last week was a bit misleading. In reality, they only played about 13 points worse "fundamentally", and were hurt by a minus-5 turnover differential. For a team as unpredictable from week to week as Seattle, a spread of 16 points is too high.
Pick: Los Angeles +16
Massey-Peabody line: Seattle -12.6
Erin Rynning: A myriad of issues seemingly make this game a tricky proposition. Certainly the Seahawks should bounce back like they've done so often after a poor performance. Their 38-10 loss definitely qualifies as poor, especially QB Russell Wilson and his five interceptions. However, the tax is high as well with the Seahawks favored by over two touchdowns. Maybe the larger question is whether or not the Rams show up this week after being outscored 117-45 over the last three weeks. Firing a head coach on the short week is almost inconceivable in the NFL and it's blurry as to how the team will compete in this match-up. Of course, it's difficult to envision a Rams offense led by Jared Goffsuddenly waking up, but the defense -- and perhaps a motivated front seven -- has created many issues in the past for the Seahawks.
Pick: Pass
Prop bets
John Parolin
17.5 completions by Jared Goff (O/U -110)
Understatement alert: Goff hasn't had the easiest rookie year. He sat for 10 weeks before his first start in Week 11, a four-point loss to the Dolphins, and then lost his next three games by an average of 24 points. After his running back called his offense a "middle school" unit, Goff's head coach was fired on Monday. The team named his replacement approximately 77 hours before the team kicks off against the Seahawks, the NFL's best scoring defense for each of the last four years. Other than that, everything's going fine.
All that aside, just how low is 17.5 as a total? There have been 208 games in the NFL this year (416 "team" games). In 81 percent of those games, teams have managed to throw at least 18 completions. Don't get caught up in the 38 points Aaron Rodgers hung on Seattle last week -- the Seahawks defense is obviously an effective unit. But in pure completions allowed per game, the Seahawks rank 11th with 21.5 per game. Considering there's a prop on "Will the Rams EVER have the lead?", it's not unreasonable to assume Goff will need to throw a LOT. It won't be pretty, and it likely won't be effective, but he's averaged 18.8 completions in his four starts this season. It should be enough.
The play: Over
22.5 completions by Russell Wilson (O/U -110)
While there's a very likely outcome for the visitors (and an overmatched quarterback), the home quarterback has a pretty wide range of outcomes. Fresh off a five-interception performance against the Packers in Week 14, Wilson is back at home against the Rams. Wilson's home and away splits are pronounced. He's completed over two-thirds of his passes at home for an extra yard per attempt compared to his road numbers.
Does a more effective overall game equate to a high volume of completions? The Rams defense allows a 66.1 completion percentage on the road, right around Wilson's at 66.8 at home. Using 66 percent as the benchmark, Wilson needs 35 pass attempts to reach 23 completions. He's done that in seven of 13 games this season, including both of his last two efforts. Also, he may get a bump from the defense he's playing, as Los Angeles has allowed an average of 27.0 completions per game on the road -- a total exceeded only by the woeful Falcons secondary (28.6).
The play: Over
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
dino259
Footballguy
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
Suns U100.5
The Suns know that defense all too well. They were held to 84, 79 and 89 points the first three times they saw the Spurs last season.
The Suns know that defense all too well. They were held to 84, 79 and 89 points the first three times they saw the Spurs last season.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Waiting on this woman to get here. She's late, but there is a man who is younger than me that works at the gym and is gay - and today he said I should go out with him to see Star Wars tonight. When I told him I already have a date planned he said no problem we can just see the midnight show. So I tried to calm him down. I said, dude, by midnight I'll be naked and wasted and he was like, "That's perfect!"
facook
Footballguy
You know you're my boo. I roll with Swirve (Russel UNDER!!) but I I'm a degen AND I am cheap. So I like to just see.
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modogg
Footballguy
Yeah I was going to come In here and say I really like rams +16.5. Love them even more in teaser at 22.5
facook
Footballguy
WilliamBonney
Footballguy
Pete Carroll can eat a Richie. Kick a GD 3 pointer.
WilliamBonney
Footballguy
Eff Pete Carroll and eff Bovada on their birfday for getting rid of poker.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
definatly not jimmylumpy19 said:
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
need a sea def td here
Frostillicus
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
boy are the rams fuking stupid.. keep dropping back and throwinf 20 yards passes. I mean Goff sucks but I think sam bradford quick drops and fire might be good for him.
lumpy19
Footballguy
WilliamBonney
Footballguy
No mid week xmas party drinking for you. See you on Sunday when uncle swirve is drinking our tax dollars..... jk swirve. Love you
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
It was awesome when Rawls lost -2, -2 and -7 on his last 3 carries when all he needed to do was fall forward to beat a rawls vs gurley prop
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Yo it's my opinion that you can just wake up in the morning like a normal American and fix your wife breakfast. Whatever she wants in the morning. What does she like toast. And it's not like she has to go squirting all over the place like a damn PTA meeting. Dude, butter and toast, coast to coast. Wives with the most. You know what you're doing you don't need me
ChainsawU
Footballguy
she bought a ####load of lingerie and I flirted with the woman who worked there. it is like when your chick buys a bathing suit but two hours. yo, I was special they let me piss in the woman's thing. but no I was with my chick
ChainsawU
Footballguy
and #### them that wasn't even the good store for that ####. yo I'd dated chicks like two years ago that went to the real stores. like the walmart stores. this was not the same. we got ripped off but she was so happy - the smile on her face - and she is older than me, she knows way more than me
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
That was a bad beat for sure. Think it means we're due for a SWEEEEEEPPP there this Sunday
gussy
Footballguy
Friday Pucks:
Pens/Kings O5.5 (EV) Pens have gone over 5.5 in 12 consecutive games, of the last 20 combined, 14 of these teams games have gone O5.5. There have been at least SEVEN goals scored in 12 consecutive Penguins games.
Caps qualify as a play per the system at (-115), but I'm going to pass as Carolina has been playing really well at home, having won their last 7 at home. PASS.
Avs also qualify as a small home underdog (-105), but they've been less than stellar at home, and even against a reeling Panthers team on the second night of a back to back I want no part of COL right now. PASS.
Jackets qualify as a play as well, I'm going to lay low tonight, I'm anticipating some regression to the mean after the way the last 3 days have gone so I'm trying to tread a little more carefully. If I could have gotten plus money I would have played them. Both teams are playing really well right now and should be a great game.
Bolts and Nucks to go to OT-Y is paying +280 and is probably worth a stab as well.
I'm not feeling a lot tonight, just going to ride the Pens/Kings O5.5 and hope things look clearer tomorrow. GLTA
Pens/Kings O5.5 (EV) Pens have gone over 5.5 in 12 consecutive games, of the last 20 combined, 14 of these teams games have gone O5.5. There have been at least SEVEN goals scored in 12 consecutive Penguins games.
Caps qualify as a play per the system at (-115), but I'm going to pass as Carolina has been playing really well at home, having won their last 7 at home. PASS.
Avs also qualify as a small home underdog (-105), but they've been less than stellar at home, and even against a reeling Panthers team on the second night of a back to back I want no part of COL right now. PASS.
Jackets qualify as a play as well, I'm going to lay low tonight, I'm anticipating some regression to the mean after the way the last 3 days have gone so I'm trying to tread a little more carefully. If I could have gotten plus money I would have played them. Both teams are playing really well right now and should be a great game.
Bolts and Nucks to go to OT-Y is paying +280 and is probably worth a stab as well.
I'm not feeling a lot tonight, just going to ride the Pens/Kings O5.5 and hope things look clearer tomorrow. GLTA
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lumpy19
Footballguy
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
I don't get it, don't you just bang a girl til' she cums? Keep trying different stuff until the deed is done.
Maybe this is why I'm me and you're you.
*shrugs*
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Message:
Hi Dan Lambskin,
I am writing to you with regards to your wager on Justin Tucker (BAL) Will He Miss a Field Goal or PAT.
Regarding your bet on Justin Tucker Will he Miss a FG or PAT, after reviewing the NFL Game Center Box Score, the NFL deemed it a Block FG which is not recorded as a miss.
We graded your wager as a winner when in fact it lost, instead of regrading as a lost we decided to No Action the wager and refund the money placed on the Yes. Sorry for the inconvenience and moving forward when offering this prop we will list “Blocks do not count as a Miss”.
Kind regards,
The Wagering Team.
Hi Dan Lambskin,
I am writing to you with regards to your wager on Justin Tucker (BAL) Will He Miss a Field Goal or PAT.
Regarding your bet on Justin Tucker Will he Miss a FG or PAT, after reviewing the NFL Game Center Box Score, the NFL deemed it a Block FG which is not recorded as a miss.
We graded your wager as a winner when in fact it lost, instead of regrading as a lost we decided to No Action the wager and refund the money placed on the Yes. Sorry for the inconvenience and moving forward when offering this prop we will list “Blocks do not count as a Miss”.
Kind regards,
The Wagering Team.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Guessing I don't really have any recourse there?
huskers15
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Dirty mother ####ers. 
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