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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

Dan Lambskin said:
Message:
Hi Dan Lambskin, 

I am writing to you with regards to your wager on Justin Tucker (BAL) Will He Miss a Field Goal or PAT. 

Regarding your bet on Justin Tucker Will he Miss a FG or PAT, after reviewing the NFL Game Center Box Score, the NFL deemed it a Block FG which is not recorded as a miss. 

We graded your wager as a winner when in fact it lost, instead of regrading as a lost we decided to No Action the wager and refund the money placed on the Yes. Sorry for the inconvenience and moving forward when offering this prop we will list “Blocks do not count as a Miss”. 


Kind regards, 

The Wagering Team.
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They sure wanna win.  Great story on Beating the Book podcast from Monday on why MLB game totals  become official after 8.5 innings only if tied or home team ahead.  Essentially....the book was gonna lose, changed a rule overnight, and it became sportsbook law. Kinda like this.

Sucks Dan.  Sorry you got jobbed.

 
facook said:
They sure wanna win.  Great story on Beating the Book podcast from Monday on why MLB game totals  become official after 8.5 innings only if tied or home team ahead.  Essentially....the book was gonna lose, changed a rule overnight, and it became sportsbook law. Kinda like this.

Sucks Dan.  Sorry you got jobbed.
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Yeah.  But ive taken a lot of thier money and will continue to do so.  Oh well . We move on

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Yeah.  But ive taken a lot of thier money and will continue to do so.  Oh well . We move on
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I think in your shoes I probably would take one hail mary shot at a response along the lines of: "I understand your need to change the rule in the future.  However under the existing rules of your book I feel I won the bet and should be rewarded accordingly.  The integrity of your company has been the #1 reason I have referred all of my friends to you.  I hope you'll continue to to exhibit integrity in this case."  Or some crap like that.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Message:
Hi Dan Lambskin, 

I am writing to you with regards to your wager on Justin Tucker (BAL) Will He Miss a Field Goal or PAT. 

Regarding your bet on Justin Tucker Will he Miss a FG or PAT, after reviewing the NFL Game Center Box Score, the NFL deemed it a Block FG which is not recorded as a miss. 

We graded your wager as a winner when in fact it lost, instead of regrading as a lost we decided to No Action the wager and refund the money placed on the Yes. Sorry for the inconvenience and moving forward when offering this prop we will list “Blocks do not count as a Miss”. 


Kind regards, 

The Wagering Team.
Click to expand...
Try this :shrug:

NFL gamebook:  http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/57108/NE_Gamebook.pdf

Right near the top it lists "Field Goals (made ( ) & missed)" and shows the first as missed by not enclosing it in brackets:  J. Tucker 34B (50) (38) (37)











 
On paper, the Raptors are a much better team than the Hawks. Plus, betting on Toronto at home is just plain fun.

Q1 - Raptors -2.5, -110 (0.5 unit)

1H - Raptors -4, -110 (1 unit)

Raptors -6 (buy half point), -130 (0.5 unit)

 
Em, why have u lost your mojo? Did u seal the deal with your date the other night? Did u "bang her until she came?" U need a good old fashioned Mark Grace slump buster. Surely u know some ugly females?

 
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gussy said:
Em, why have u lost your mojo? Did u seal the deal with your date the other night? Did u "bang her until she came?" U need a good old fashioned Mark Grace slump buster. Surely u know some ugly females?
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Do you really expect someone to beat NBA - one of the toughest markets - by consistently playing public teams every single night?

 
gussy said:
Em, why have u lost your mojo? Did u seal the deal with your date the other night? Did u "bang her until she came?" U need a good old fashioned Mark Grace slump buster. Surely u know some ugly females?
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My thread plays have been doing ####tier than my overall big picture. These slumps come and go.

If I go back to pecking away at it, I can do well. I take too much action, purely because it's fun. It just feels right and until I start bleeding money, I'm going to continue to be an action junkie. Nobody should be tailing me right now, imo. I'm a machine gun, no precision just ### kicking.

Didn't bang her, brought her to the hotel room but we were both plastered and we just cuddled and fell asleep like right away. We fooled around a bit but no sex, working on that. Still in contact, she's a pretty hot redhead.

Mark Grace slump buster.  :lmao:

 
Donkey Derp said:
Do you really expect someone to beat NBA - one of the toughest markets - by consistently playing public teams every single night?
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To be honest, I don't expect Em to win a lot ever with his betting patterns, but he has to be the luckiest mother effer I've ever seen. I didn't tail him tonight and I've really slowed on tailing him in the NBA. I think I tailed 4 games one time this last week that he posted and my plays that I tailed went 3-1 and I think he lost everything else he posted that night that I didn't tail. He was over 70% the first 30 or so games I tailed him on NBA, probably around 50% the next 30 and I know he's running cold now. I said a long time ago that regression was coming and it turned in to a flame war, so I just watch. I want everyone to do well, especially now that we don't have to see "THIS IS WHAT I DO" every time he wins more than one game in a row.

 
gussy said:
To be honest, I don't expect Em to win a lot ever with his betting patterns, but he has to be the luckiest mother effer I've ever seen. I didn't tail him tonight and I've really slowed on tailing him in the NBA. I think I tailed 4 games one time this last week that he posted and my plays that I tailed went 3-1 and I think he lost everything else he posted that night that I didn't tail. He was over 70% the first 30 or so games I tailed him on NBA, probably around 50% the next 30 and I know he's running cold now. I said a long time ago that regression was coming and it turned in to a flame war, so I just watch. I want everyone to do well, especially now that we don't have to see "THIS IS WHAT I DO" every time he wins more than one game in a row.
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Well, the thing about the way I bet is that teams run hot and cold in the real NBA. I have my teams that I'm fond of in certain situations. As these teams succeed, so do I.

Against all but a few teams, I will take Toronto by 4 points at halftime 90% of the time. When Toronto is running hot, I'll hit it like 4-5 times in a row. When they slump, I'll lose it a few times.

I don't pretend I can predict when a team will start streaking or slumping, I just put my money in the right place and let the chips fall where they may. There will be a few bad beats on the way but as long as I stay firm and adapt when I need to, I stay ahead.

 
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Played Houston -4 tomorrow. Will also look to get on ULL, but I'm waiting to see if that line sees 7.
I'll be playing ULL on the ML as well.

 
Saw this on Reddit's sportsbook thread, worth a post here re: Bowl Season.

If you like a dog, play the ML.

Not counting the 14' and 15' natties:

2015: 25-15 fav-dog ATS...12 outright upset wins. 38% dogs ATS, 30% of games were upsets. Straight up winner covers 92.5% of time.

2014: 16-22 fav-dog ATS...18 outright upset wins. 58% dogs ATS, 47% of games were upsets. Straight up winner covers 89.5% of time.

2013: 17-16-1 fav-dog ATS...13 outright upset wins. 47% dogs, 38% of the games were upsets. Straight up winner covers 88% of time.

2012: 16-16-1 fav-dog ATS...13 outright upset wins. 48% dogs, 39% of the games were upsets. (1 game pick'em not counted for %). Straight up winner covers 88% of time.

2011: 18-14-1 fav-dog ATS...9 outright upset wins...42% dogs, 27% of the games were upsets. (1 game pick'em not counted for %). Straight up winner covers 82% of time.
Click to expand...

 
Before you guys do anything with the Packers at Bears game, know that the wind chill at kickoff will be about 20 below.

Anyone not like this teaser at 1:00?

Ravens E (vs. Phil)

Lions +10 (at NYG)

 
Raider Nation said:
Before you guys do anything with the Packers at Bears game, know that the wind chill at kickoff will be about 20 below.

Anyone not like this teaser at 1:00?

Ravens E (vs. Phil)

Lions +10 (at NYG)
Click to expand...
Like. Also like for +160 Jets +8.5 vs. Miami sans Tanny, Chargers +8.5 vs. Oak, Cowboys -1 vs. TB.

 
Over 2.5 on Chelsea CP

8 of last 9 Palace epl matches have had 3 or more goals

 
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Raider Nation said:
Before you guys do anything with the Packers at Bears game, know that the wind chill at kickoff will be about 20 below.

Anyone not like this teaser at 1:00?

Ravens E (vs. Phil)

Lions +10 (at NYG)
Click to expand...
its killing me t do it but im playing couins over rodgers in the semi's  Ive played rodgers every single week except his bye, like to go with got me there but o/u of 38.5 vs 51 and weather i gotta do it

 
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cheese said:
I'm not going to copy Tiger Fans whole post, but TCU and WMich are 2 clear chances to fade the public.
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wait till closer to game time tho, but yeah ill be on all the under 33%'s.

fading alan eastman and doc sports today these touts always try to force plays during the bowl season its great

 
Only problem with teasing the Lions is you have a dome team playing outside in December.

And I can't imagine the cold is going to be good for Stafford's hand.

Edit - forget the cold.  It's supposed to mid 50s and rainy.

 
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Saturday Pucks

Flyers  (+105)  I'll take the plus money on the team that has won 10 in a row, on the road, against the underachieving Stars..

I'm not going to play it, but if you are looking for a good long shot, the Coyotes catching +235 in Minnesota qualifies. Darcy Kuemper is starting in goal for the Wild today, not Dubnyk, and I've got the score projected as even. Arizona has had some success playing in Minnesota and they are playing a little better right now. +235 is a ton of value here.

I lied. I talked myself in to it.

Coyotes  (+235)

 
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JaxBill said:
Only problem with teasing the Lions is you have a dome team playing outside in December.

And I can't imagine the cold is going to be good for Stafford's hand.

Edit - forget the cold.  It's supposed to mid 50s and rainy.
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Yeah all they do is play close games though... pretty sure every damn game has been within a TD.  I can see that being some ####ty 19-16 type game

 
swirvenirvin said:
its killing me t do it but im playing couins over rodgers in the semi's  Ive played rodgers every single week except his bye, like to go with got me there but o/u of 38.5 vs 51 and weather i gotta do it
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Considering doing the same with Cousins over Brady.  Not because of weather but because of situation.  Grr....

 
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