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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (19 Viewers)

Wine Thief said:
Gus got some of that Em rubbing off on him?
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What's that? The playing big, public favorites? Caps weren't the favorite, Just last week I posted an entire card of all underdogs. I haven't come in here claiming to be some gooroo. I've posted my plays, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. This year has been better than last and not as good as the year before.

 
gussy said:
What's that? The playing big, public favorites? Caps weren't the favorite, Just last week I posted an entire card of all underdogs. I haven't come in here claiming to be some gooroo. I've posted my plays, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. This year has been better than last and not as good as the year before.
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I'm a thread jester, nothing more.  The caps struggle in ot when they're 5-1 stat made me chuckle is all.  Don't take me seriously bud.

 
got_nugs said:
I'm a thread jester, nothing more.  The caps struggle in ot when they're 5-1 stat made me chuckle is all.  Don't take me seriously bud.
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You ever drink so much bourbon on a Monday that you take their 4-4 stats and immediately apply it to their OT success? They HAVE been terrible on 4-4, and I was looking for opportunity to buy out of the original bet. In side news, 4 Roses Bourbon is fantastic. Ice-mageddon. We will survive. Either way, it was a winner. Just wish I would have been able to hit it.

 
gussy said:
You ever drink so much bourbon on a Monday that you take their 4-4 stats and immediately apply it to their OT success? They HAVE been terrible on 4-4, and I was looking for opportunity to buy out of the original bet. In side news, 4 Roses Bourbon is fantastic. Ice-mageddon. We will survive. Either way, it was a winner. Just wish I would have been able to hit it.
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As you can see from my first post, which I think you missed, I was just bustin' balls. I thought it was funny that you were trying to bet 4 on 4, when they were 5-1, 3 on 3.

 
NIce ripper @Good Posting Judge

I'm supposed to be getting an ex-Warrior on my rec team this season.

You think GS will win the championship?  The west road is going to much more brutal than the east yet again and their interior game is a huge leak come playoff time.  I wish they would have kept Bogut even if he only got 11-12 big minutes in the playoffs.  The problem also (like last year) is they can't really coast in the regular season because of the Spurs.  35-6 and only 3.5 games ahead of SA.  People talked #### last year about going for the record but they still only finished six up on SA. 

My basketball/betting mind says after they play OKC at home Wednesday (then have next 7/9 on the road), the max value play is on the Cavs for the ring, but I don't think I can stomach that one.

 
tjnc09 said:
NIce ripper @Good Posting Judge

I'm supposed to be getting an ex-Warrior on my rec team this season.

You think GS will win the championship?  The west road is going to much more brutal than the east yet again and their interior game is a huge leak come playoff time.  I wish they would have kept Bogut even if he only got 11-12 big minutes in the playoffs.  The problem also (like last year) is they can't really coast in the regular season because of the Spurs.  35-6 and only 3.5 games ahead of SA.  People talked #### last year about going for the record but they still only finished six up on SA. 

My basketball/betting mind says after they play OKC at home Wednesday (then have next 7/9 on the road), the max value play is on the Cavs for the ring, but I don't think I can stomach that one.
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Short answer: Probably. I think only SA and CLE are legit threats, with CLE being the bigger one. The defense overall has been great this year, even with Pachulia in the middle, their ability to switch everything causes a lot of headaches, to say nothing of their overall size. But I think you're right that CLE ftw is the best futures play on the board right now. GS was considered better to be better on paper last year too, weird stuff can happen, etc. etc.

I think they'll start to pull away from SA some, and then you'll see them start to resting guys down the stretch. Having the 73 win thing last year might have been a death knell and a fool's errand, I think this year they're just going to approach the regular season more conventionally and hope that Steph isn't DOA again come finals time. And I think SA is not going to push the issue too much in terms of trying to chase the Warriors down, they're smart enough to just settle into the 2 hole and make sure their guys aren't gassed.

All that said, I don't know what opposing teams do if they're playing like they did tonight in the 1H. That was incredible, frankly.

 
My super square buddy pointed out to me yesterday that the nuggets have a terrible D and must be going over a lot.  Like 28-10-1 or something 

 
Tuesday Pucks:

Wild  -1/2  (-130)
Hawks  -1/2  (-110)
CGY/FLA U5  (+110)

Here were some other plays that I'd consider leans but that I didn't play:

Stars/Rangers OT-Y
Flames/Panthers OT-Y
Stars TT O2.5
CAR/CBS O5.5
BUF/TOR O5.5
BUF TT O2.5
OTT/ST.L U5.5

I also felt like there was some value with the big number on the Stars and the Canes.

I haven't capped the 2 late games yet.

 
the latest episode of Noisey was about the Bay Area; was just wondering if tjnc ever ran into E40 walking down the street around there

 
Nucks/Preds U5  (+115)
Ducks -1/2  (-105)

Would also lean:

Ducks/Bolts U5
Bolts TT U2.5

in those last two games. Only played the top two however

 
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gussy said:
Tuesday Pucks:

Wild  -1/2  (-130)
Hawks  -1/2  (-110)
CGY/FLA U5  (+110)

Here were some other plays that I'd consider leans but that I didn't play:

Stars/Rangers OT-Y
Flames/Panthers OT-Y
Stars TT O2.5
CAR/CBS O5.5
BUF/TOR O5.5
BUF TT O2.5
OTT/ST.L U5.5

I also felt like there was some value with the big number on the Stars and the Canes.

I haven't capped the 2 late games yet.
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Wild -1/2 is Wild to win in regulation right?

 
pizzatyme said:
Dude to his girl: I need to find me some new p*$$y Girl: If you had 2 more inches of D, you'd find some new p*$$y! :D
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Is that the same dude who got caught cheating, said he would cut down, and started ####ing midgets.

 
Stars over 2.5 goals 1p +1100

Stars/Rangers over 3.5 goals 1p +750

I meant to post these earlier. (not really, good call Gus!)

 
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So Wisconsin is ranked and has the national stage on the ESPN. Sagarin says Michigan needs between 10.87 and 11.52, and that's the number the book has let everyone lay with the Badgers. Wisconsin ML is the second-most popular bet out of all the sports tonight, is that right?? link

That has to be an error, right. I think it should be Wisconsin ATS, with Wisconsin ML down there at ninth-most popular. Because how can -600 be the second most popular wager of the night.

 
ChainsawU said:
So Wisconsin is ranked and has the national stage on the ESPN. Sagarin says Michigan needs between 10.87 and 11.52, and that's the number the book has let everyone lay with the Badgers. Wisconsin ML is the second-most popular bet out of all the sports tonight, is that right?? link

That has to be an error, right. I think it should be Wisconsin ATS, with Wisconsin ML down there at ninth-most popular. Because how can -600 be the second most popular wager of the night.
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Why does Radio Shack ask for your phone number when you buy batteries?  I don't know.

 
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