lumpy19
Footballguy
I'd probably play -185 for both teams as well, NE does have some explosive special teams players though
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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Yeah I went 1u on it.. definitely not worth hammering with guys like Lewis (1 ret TD in 36 chances) and Edelman (4 ret TD in 185 chances) who are capable of breaking one.
facook
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
Digging deeper, if we believe that -185 is a good line for this prop (and I do)for both teams it breaks down to -400 for each team if we assume equal chance for each side.....which means I should have hammered the NE number at -210 as well. Damnit.
If I'm reading this correctly, its -421 now:
HOME) SCORE A DEF. OR SPECIAL TEAM TD?
500 USD *
3:30 PM
YES +278
NO -421
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Edelman catches a pass before white -200
mquinnjr
Footballguy
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Katy Perry will always haunt me, +200 and I had it where it was a loss. Still burns me up.Lady Gaga pants/short -120
Lady Gaga dress/skirt +100
Lady Gaga no clothes +2000
I'll take Lady Gaga cleavage for -170 Alex
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
MarshallPlan
Footballguy
One I played at a local was last score TD -160. Always play this every year. I've played it from -140 to -185 every Super Bowl.
lumpy19
Footballguy
yes, i played -210, -240 and then it moved to -300, someone else moved it to -421
NE still at -276, i think there's a little bit of value there still
got_nugs
Footballguy
Chicago Bulls Verified account @chicagobulls 1h1 hour ago
Paul Zipser and Doug McDermott will start tonight’s game vs. Miami. Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler are available to play as reserves.
eta: Whiteside is out too. Dunno, just thought i'd pass the info along.
Paul Zipser and Doug McDermott will start tonight’s game vs. Miami. Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler are available to play as reserves.
eta: Whiteside is out too. Dunno, just thought i'd pass the info along.
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
heriatge sucks so bad.. heads is -120 
WilliamBonney
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
winning margin U 7.5 -110 on heritage
facook
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
yup. certainly would have been more hesitent if he wasn't. guys have paid very well this month, and Embiid was looking real good warming up (according to reports)
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
@Frostillicus
Maryland @ Minnesota -4 tomorrow. Thoughts?
Seems like Minnesota is due for a win, although Maryland is pretty good.
Maryland @ Minnesota -4 tomorrow. Thoughts?
Seems like Minnesota is due for a win, although Maryland is pretty good.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
Seriously, has me cursing him one second, 2 seconds later he is back on my xmas card list
comfortably numb
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
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comfortably numb
Footballguy
Chaves down 2-0 at HT.
Playing like crap and getting roughed up all over the place. Not how I expected them to come out!
Playing like crap and getting roughed up all over the place. Not how I expected them to come out!
The Ref
Footballguy
On Thursday night, the sports betting mecca that is the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its massive Super Bowl proposition bet packet – yes, packet; it’s way more than a sheet and probably more akin to a booklet – and there were plenty of bettors lined up from the get-go. They were dropping the maximum $2,000 wagers like pennies into a fountain.
Covers talks about where the Super Bowl prop bet action is with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook; oddsmaker Ed Salmons at the Superbook; and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3; Move: +3 (even); Move: +3 (-105); Move: +3 (-110)
Other than adjustments to the price, the Super Bowl line hasn’t moved this week at the Superbook, sticking firm at Patriots -3. That might not be the case with the proposition offerings, with so many options – Kornegay posted a record of more than 400 – that bettors just might be able to find some advantageous lines.
It’s a long way from when prop bets first came into Super Bowl betting lore.
“When I first entered the industry back in ’87, ’88, there were only maybe about 10-12, maybe 20 propositions for the Super bowl,” Kornegay said. “Now we’re looking at around 400. It really took off in the early ‘90s, mid-‘90s, as the games were really boring, we expanded the menu and it really took off. Now it’s just a huge part of the experience of being in Las Vegas.”
Sharp money was the order of the night on Thursday, with bettors aiming to find props where they might have an early edge.
“The people betting last night are professionals,” Salmons said, noting a general pattern to their wagers. “Ninety-five percent of the bets were on ‘No’ and ‘Under.’ We fully expected that.”
Salmons pointed specifically to betters liking “No” on Pats tight end Martellus Bennett to score a touchdown and the same with teammate Julian Edelman.
“We will write a ton of ‘Yes’ next weekend” on both those props, Salmons said.
That’s because public bettors, on the other hand, love betting on “Yes” and “Over” with many of the props. And year-to-year, they’ll hit some of the standard ones that offer potentially nice little payouts at plus-money.
“We usually have the same propositions that are the most popular with the general public,” Kornegay said. “The one that I believe is the most popular and gets the most tickets on it, it’s a very generic one and it’s been around for a very long time, is the player to score the first touchdown. That always seems to get a lot of attention from the general public. And then we just go into the overtime proposition and the safety.”
Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman is the favorite to score the first TD, at 7/1, followed by teammate Julio Jones and New England’s LeGarette Blount and Edelman at 8/1. The prop of overtime opened Yes +700/No -1100, and the prop on a safety at any point in the game opened Yes +600/No -900.
The safety went on a three-year streak recently, in the New York Giants’ win over New England in 2011-12, Baltimore’s win over San Francisco in 2012-13, and Seattle’s win over Denver in 2013-14 – the latter coming on the first play from scrimmage, making it a huge hit among those who took “safety” as the game’s first score.
“The safety hasn’t really been a friend of the bookmakers in recent years,” Kornegay said. “We had three safeties in a row. To think of the odds of that happening, just incredible.”
Meanwhile, TopBet.eu has a little more than 100 prop offerings, with one of the more active plays coming on whether Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will throw for more than 300 yards.
“We opened that prop ‘Yes’ -300 and got sharp action on ‘No’ +200, so we moved to the current number of Yes -240/No +180,” Jerome said.
As is the case at all books, both in Vegas and offshore, fun is being had with some of these prop bets, and even sharp customers are interested in the more unique offerings. At TopBet.eu, that includes whether President Trump will tweet three or more times during the Super Bowl, from kickoff to final play.
“We opened ‘Yes’ -150 and got sharp action there and at ‘Yes’ -180, so we moved to the current number of -220,” Jerome said.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
SUPERBOOK SUPER BOWL PROPS
Super Bowl prop bets at Superbook
h
Covers talks about where the Super Bowl prop bet action is with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook; oddsmaker Ed Salmons at the Superbook; and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3; Move: +3 (even); Move: +3 (-105); Move: +3 (-110)
Other than adjustments to the price, the Super Bowl line hasn’t moved this week at the Superbook, sticking firm at Patriots -3. That might not be the case with the proposition offerings, with so many options – Kornegay posted a record of more than 400 – that bettors just might be able to find some advantageous lines.
It’s a long way from when prop bets first came into Super Bowl betting lore.
“When I first entered the industry back in ’87, ’88, there were only maybe about 10-12, maybe 20 propositions for the Super bowl,” Kornegay said. “Now we’re looking at around 400. It really took off in the early ‘90s, mid-‘90s, as the games were really boring, we expanded the menu and it really took off. Now it’s just a huge part of the experience of being in Las Vegas.”
Sharp money was the order of the night on Thursday, with bettors aiming to find props where they might have an early edge.
“The people betting last night are professionals,” Salmons said, noting a general pattern to their wagers. “Ninety-five percent of the bets were on ‘No’ and ‘Under.’ We fully expected that.”
Salmons pointed specifically to betters liking “No” on Pats tight end Martellus Bennett to score a touchdown and the same with teammate Julian Edelman.
“We will write a ton of ‘Yes’ next weekend” on both those props, Salmons said.
That’s because public bettors, on the other hand, love betting on “Yes” and “Over” with many of the props. And year-to-year, they’ll hit some of the standard ones that offer potentially nice little payouts at plus-money.
“We usually have the same propositions that are the most popular with the general public,” Kornegay said. “The one that I believe is the most popular and gets the most tickets on it, it’s a very generic one and it’s been around for a very long time, is the player to score the first touchdown. That always seems to get a lot of attention from the general public. And then we just go into the overtime proposition and the safety.”
Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman is the favorite to score the first TD, at 7/1, followed by teammate Julio Jones and New England’s LeGarette Blount and Edelman at 8/1. The prop of overtime opened Yes +700/No -1100, and the prop on a safety at any point in the game opened Yes +600/No -900.
The safety went on a three-year streak recently, in the New York Giants’ win over New England in 2011-12, Baltimore’s win over San Francisco in 2012-13, and Seattle’s win over Denver in 2013-14 – the latter coming on the first play from scrimmage, making it a huge hit among those who took “safety” as the game’s first score.
“The safety hasn’t really been a friend of the bookmakers in recent years,” Kornegay said. “We had three safeties in a row. To think of the odds of that happening, just incredible.”
Meanwhile, TopBet.eu has a little more than 100 prop offerings, with one of the more active plays coming on whether Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will throw for more than 300 yards.
“We opened that prop ‘Yes’ -300 and got sharp action on ‘No’ +200, so we moved to the current number of Yes -240/No +180,” Jerome said.
As is the case at all books, both in Vegas and offshore, fun is being had with some of these prop bets, and even sharp customers are interested in the more unique offerings. At TopBet.eu, that includes whether President Trump will tweet three or more times during the Super Bowl, from kickoff to final play.
“We opened ‘Yes’ -150 and got sharp action there and at ‘Yes’ -180, so we moved to the current number of -220,” Jerome said.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
SUPERBOOK SUPER BOWL PROPS
Super Bowl prop bets at Superbook
h
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The Ref
Footballguy
http://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/485980
the link is to the above article. Real interesting video at the bottom with the super book manager. The interviewer ends the video by saying that prop bets will make up over half of the handle on the game.
$2000 bets on all these.... with some of the guys in here how are several of us not in Vegas this week.
the link is to the above article. Real interesting video at the bottom with the super book manager. The interviewer ends the video by saying that prop bets will make up over half of the handle on the game.
$2000 bets on all these.... with some of the guys in here how are several of us not in Vegas this week.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I looked at tickets to go on Monday, it was $604 roundtrip, hoping a $200 roundtrip pops up and I'm there, the lines might be gone though
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wow, they let you parlay some of these. I need to get to vegas for the SB one year
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
I always laugh at a book like TopBet claiming they took "sharp action". They actively ban all the sharp action they take and probably only take $100 limits on these novelty props as it is. Hate seeing these #######s get publicity.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
guy i talked weekly with that does the sacks made a trip out there. Going to see if he'll take anything for me, but I dont know him that well so I doubt it.
