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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
facook
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
She is stunning. I don't give 10's................................but I'd wrap those legs around my neck and not think twice. nom nom
got_nugs
Footballguy
gussy
Footballguy
Yankees -105
May also take a look at the F5 under and/or the Rays TT U. Not sure if F5 U will be 3.5 or 4, and I'd assume Rays TT U will be 3 or 3.5.
Both pitchers (Tanaka and Archer) had great springs, Tanaka has never lost to the Rays while Archer has been pretty average against the Yanks. Yanks have a dominant bullpen, game could be won late. I think Yankees will be much improved this year, and should be a solid bet when playing righties.
May also take a look at the F5 under and/or the Rays TT U. Not sure if F5 U will be 3.5 or 4, and I'd assume Rays TT U will be 3 or 3.5.
Both pitchers (Tanaka and Archer) had great springs, Tanaka has never lost to the Rays while Archer has been pretty average against the Yanks. Yanks have a dominant bullpen, game could be won late. I think Yankees will be much improved this year, and should be a solid bet when playing righties.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
What did the dogs cover in this tourney? At least 60% right? Anyone know?
JaxBill
Footballguy
kevzilla
Footballguy
I trusted a Roy Williams team, there is no one to blame but myself.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Ask @lumpy19 about hedge strategy. He has you covered!
Really, the answer is, how much $ is there to win and do you want to lock in profit or let it ride and possibly get nothing? I assume you could hedge by betting the NC ML.
G'luck
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
BASEBALL!!! K PROPS!!! NBA PLAYOFFS!!!
...it's the most wonderful time of the year...
...it's the most wonderful time of the year...
hooter311
Footballguy
I'm out probably again this week. Slumping at life and don't want it to carry over to other people's pocket books...
VA703
Footballguy
I should have posted in this thread instead of the March Madness thread, here's my predicament:
My son wins $900 if UNC wins or
wins $15 if zags win.
So I could take Zags + 1.5 and guarantee the $450 or hope for a UNC win by 1 to win $1350 (not likely)
How can I hedge to guarantee him $450? I don't have an online book, always play in vegas/aruba and don't have a local source to bet.
Any recommendations for offshore books? I only plan on making this bet (if possible) to hedge for my son and then cash out either way. Personally I think Zags win and I don't want to see him end up with $15. I'd (and he) would still be happy with the $450 if UNC wins
My son wins $900 if UNC wins or
wins $15 if zags win.
So I could take Zags + 1.5 and guarantee the $450 or hope for a UNC win by 1 to win $1350 (not likely)
How can I hedge to guarantee him $450? I don't have an online book, always play in vegas/aruba and don't have a local source to bet.
Any recommendations for offshore books? I only plan on making this bet (if possible) to hedge for my son and then cash out either way. Personally I think Zags win and I don't want to see him end up with $15. I'd (and he) would still be happy with the $450 if UNC wins
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Rocket - you are going to have to fund an off shore sportsbook - unless you have a friend who has a book and is willing to take the bet for you.
With the juice getting exactly 450 is going to be difficult as well. Wagering 450 on the Zags +1.5 will only return 409 ( assuming the Zags are -110);
You will have to risk 495 to get 450 as the return. There are others on here that have a better idea than I do about what book would be best to use.
With the juice getting exactly 450 is going to be difficult as well. Wagering 450 on the Zags +1.5 will only return 409 ( assuming the Zags are -110);
You will have to risk 495 to get 450 as the return. There are others on here that have a better idea than I do about what book would be best to use.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
ArbyMelt
Footballguy
$430 on the Zags ML at +105, nets $451 (+$15), pays $465. If UNC wins, you'll get $470 ($900-$430).
If it was for me I'd just let it ride but $400+ is a lot for a 16 yr old kid and I hate to see him end up with $15. I figured the juice would take a certain cut but I'd like to see him guaranteed more than $15 win or lose. Even $300- $400 or so would be big for him.
I like, would you consider a hail mary with Zags +1.5 hoping for a middle with UNC winning by 1? I know it's a longshot but what would the payout difference be?
ArbyMelt
Footballguy
well if you want to play the spread with hope of a middle.
$465 to win $422 on the Zags +1.5
if Zags win: $15 + $422 = $437
if UNC wins > 1: $900 - $465 = $435
if UNC wins by 1: $900 + $422 = $1322.
So you are locking in $465/$470 instead of $435/$437. You are paying $30ish for a chance at $875ish more. Chances of UNC by 1?
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Slightly less. You're basically hedging out and spending a little of that money on a lottery ticket.
If it were me I'd roll the dice on the middle but I guess that would be up to him. Now for the million$ question, how do I join an offshore book, pro's/con's and advice? TIA
RealReactions
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
How much did your son risk to be in this pool? After that I'll have your answer on how you should wager
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I'm going to sound like such a ***, but here goes. Why don't you stay out of the kid's business. It sounds like he made the wager himself and now you're trying to barge in on it. If you want to gamble, do it yourself and not in the name of your son. If 400+ is a lot to a sixteen year old, what about the 465 he stands to lose just because "you personally think the Zags win." Just stay out of his wager.
And by *** I mean Japanese.
He didn't risk a dime, I paid his entry fees of $30 and $5. There are actually two pools involved, one pays $660 for first ($15 for 5th place) and the other $240 (winner take all). Long story short he ends up with $15 if UNC loses. No chance at splitting with anyone as too many Zag plays involved.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
Ok, just to clear things up. He plays a few MM pools with me every year. I have not advocated for him to play this one way or the other and my opinion of who will win or lose has no bearing on the situation as he can do whatever he chooses. I just want to give him the option of hedging and explain to him his options. The decision is ultimately all his but for a young kid a guaranteed $400 is a lot of money. My gut feeling is he will take the guaranteed money as opposed to rolling the dice when he weighs all his options.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
I would have your son talk to the guy he's going up against and try to get him to agree to a chop for more than first prize is worth. Never too early to teach them to take advantage of stupid people.
I respect your opinion, not sure I totally agree with it as many people take the conservative approach in hedging to guarantee a return. If it were me personally I wouldn't hedge as I like the chance of winning $900 as opposed to only having a shot at half that. But $400 to me isn't what $400 is to a 16 yr old. Just out of curiosity what is your reasoning?
lumpy19
Footballguy
This is good advice, funding an offshore sportsbook is kind of a PIA unless you plan on continuing to gamble.
Too many people have Gonzaga in the $660 1st place pool to make splitting an option. He could opt to split the $240 pool if the other person agreed but it's only $120 difference.
This scenario to me is a microcosm of life decisions to a certain degree, I just want him to be fully informed about his options and give him the chance to decide. If I didn't explain his options to him I guess he wouldn't have to decide.
lumpy19
Footballguy
Chances to win these are far and few between, need to scoop when you have the chance. I know $400 is a lot to a 16 year old, it's a lot to me, I'd love a free $400.
Also he's risking nothing thanks to you, he has nothing to lose. Finally and most importantly for a 16 year old, whats he gonna tell his friends? Yeah I hedged :X to lock in profit and I would have won $900!!
Yeah, I thought this would be the deal breaker if he opted to hedge as I figured it would be a pain in the ###.
