Clorox
Footballguy
Hey hoot - I can't get these plays at RB so I've been playing "won't go the distance" instead. You cleaned up last weekend but looking at the value, is -140 for won't go the distance still worth it?
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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
hooter311
Footballguy
Yeah, I like the value there as well. These guys both have atrocious striking defense and no lack of aggression.
hooter311
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
I really like the opportunity this little perfect storm of a matchup between Jeon and Aldrich in Women's MMA
Jeon was signed last week as a late replacement and missed weight yesterday by 2 pounds. She is 5-0 but her professional record consists of 4 gals that were 0-0 and none have fought after that. Her last win was against a 45 year old that hadn't competed in 3 1/2 years and had a 19-22 record.
hmmmmmm
Opponent Aldrich considers herself a "martial artist" and not a fighter. While only sporting a 4-2 pro record, 11 more amateur bouts are on her resume.
Jeon will come out like a wrecking ball and see if she can end it in the first couple minutes like her last 5 tries, if that doesn't work look for her to wear out as she has only been past the 3 minute mark once and that was a 10 minute fight.
Aldrich/Jeon u2.5 rounds +170
bonus
Aldrich inside the distance +235
Aldrich Round 2 (.5 unit) +650
Alrich Round 3(.5 unit) +1250
Jeon was signed last week as a late replacement and missed weight yesterday by 2 pounds. She is 5-0 but her professional record consists of 4 gals that were 0-0 and none have fought after that. Her last win was against a 45 year old that hadn't competed in 3 1/2 years and had a 19-22 record.
hmmmmmm
Opponent Aldrich considers herself a "martial artist" and not a fighter. While only sporting a 4-2 pro record, 11 more amateur bouts are on her resume.
Jeon will come out like a wrecking ball and see if she can end it in the first couple minutes like her last 5 tries, if that doesn't work look for her to wear out as she has only been past the 3 minute mark once and that was a 10 minute fight.
Aldrich/Jeon u2.5 rounds +170
bonus
Aldrich inside the distance +235
Aldrich Round 2 (.5 unit) +650
Alrich Round 3(.5 unit) +1250
hooter311
Footballguy
Zak Ottow is a fellow Wisconsiner and has had the reputation of being a gym beast. He always shows up and rarely makes mistakes, has dropped to 155 before and appears to have added quite a bit of muscle mass for this bout at 170.
10 of his 14 pro wins are by sub.
Kunimoto also wins mostly by sub accounting for 9 of his 18 wins. If he succeeds in taking the fight to the ground, Zak should flip the tables. If he doesn't, Zak should grind away at an opportunity on top.
Kunimoto is 36 and was choked out in his last fight, which was a year and half ago. I don't expect to see an improved version this time out.
Zak Ottow by submission +530
Makes absolutely no sense that the ko prop pays half that.
10 of his 14 pro wins are by sub.
Kunimoto also wins mostly by sub accounting for 9 of his 18 wins. If he succeeds in taking the fight to the ground, Zak should flip the tables. If he doesn't, Zak should grind away at an opportunity on top.
Kunimoto is 36 and was choked out in his last fight, which was a year and half ago. I don't expect to see an improved version this time out.
Zak Ottow by submission +530
Makes absolutely no sense that the ko prop pays half that.
Clorox
Footballguy
Sorry for all the questions GB, but better to play won't go the distance +115 or any other outcome -150 (Ottow by decision +110)?
Got won't go the distance +150 for the ladies bout.
hooter311
Footballguy
Keep em coming brother!
I like won't go the distance +115
Someone tweeted Ottow that they had money on him and he replied back to double down.
Clorox
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
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hooter311
Footballguy
In a bubble, Moraga's skillset should allow him to just go out, bulldoze, and choke out Mokhtarian. What he lacks in flash he makes up with in consistency, its just very hard to get consistent wins without the flash at 125 lbs.
Mokhtarian has displayed serious lapses in fight IQ, but offers unchecked aggression as well. I think this fight is most likely where homefield advantage comes into play. I think Mokhtarian lands something crazy out of nowhere at some point.
Moraga/Mokhtarian u2.5 rounds +100
Mokhtarian has displayed serious lapses in fight IQ, but offers unchecked aggression as well. I think this fight is most likely where homefield advantage comes into play. I think Mokhtarian lands something crazy out of nowhere at some point.
Moraga/Mokhtarian u2.5 rounds +100
Clorox
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
I don't think I can be more than -125 confident with any play on this fight.
Would rather make a small play on Hunt as a dog.
hooter311
Footballguy
Jumeau/Steele has a very good chance to be fight of the night.
At one time I regarded Steele has one of the least skilled in the division, but I changed my mind in a big way last time against McGee.
Luke's been crushing cans, but he has been crushing and his last win was a UFC vet. Jumeau has only been stopped by submissions, and Steele doesn't offer much a threat there.
The homefield advantage is going to steer me to play u2.5 rounds +140, rather than Steele straight.
At one time I regarded Steele has one of the least skilled in the division, but I changed my mind in a big way last time against McGee.
Luke's been crushing cans, but he has been crushing and his last win was a UFC vet. Jumeau has only been stopped by submissions, and Steele doesn't offer much a threat there.
The homefield advantage is going to steer me to play u2.5 rounds +140, rather than Steele straight.
modogg
Footballguy
Mokhtarian has the best face tattoo i think i have seen in some time. Realized this morning i put money on him i think based solely off of that
modogg
Footballguy
yeah, i'm done betting against Dan Kelly. Dude is legit "old man" and moves like a tin man, but he keeps on winning
hooter311
Footballguy
Middleweight is awesome. 185 lbs is the most awkward weight for an adult male athlete. Everybody in the division looks like a cartoon character.
hooter311
Footballguy
Clorox
Footballguy
Won't go the distance -170 worth a swing or better to play Kelly straight up +200 for a small play?
hooter311
Footballguy
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modogg
Footballguy
i oversaw a mental/behavioral health program that worked with high school kids in Philly. Always could never figure out why some of these kids would fight before school, like 7:30 AM. i've had my fair share of fist o'cuffs, and can't fathom having to fight at that time. i would take a dive or something
Clorox
Footballguy
Thanks for all your help man, and good luck! All of my plays (6 total I think) are won't go the distance except a small play on Hunt at +120.
modogg
Footballguy
i'm betting that he does
Guy has always been one about national pride, and they had a lot of things for him for this event. he hasn't fought in New Zealand since his kickboxing days, I also heard Mark talk in an interview how this is a special one for him because it got a lot of his countrymen on it, and guys who are looking to grow in the UFC.
hooter311
Footballguy
Could just be hanging out at home and not training as well as he should. He has open multimillion dollar lawsuit against the USA where he's trying to prove damages from fighting roiders. As a result, he's been signing every contract they've put in front of him to get through his deal.
But yeah, K1 champ with 10x the technique as Lewis with a jet lag advantage is a fantastic counter argument.
But yeah, K1 champ with 10x the technique as Lewis with a jet lag advantage is a fantastic counter argument.
GOB
Footballguy
Jeon won me over with the war cry. I thought the takedown was there from the go but she really didn't need to, so she didn't.
modogg
Footballguy
Clorox
Footballguy
Still riding with you, GB. All I have left is won't go the distance in the Kelly bout and a small amount on Hunt. Adding Hooker. Think you'll add anything else? I'm fading fast
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Great call !!!
