regularguy
Footballguy
Football season can't get here soon enough. Under 7 weeks now till CFB.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
hooter311
Footballguy
I wonder how many career wins Chase will need for us to break even...8?I guess chase is NOT on the case
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
i really want to bet the over tonight... decisions decisions.....
lumpy19
Footballguy
New golf model I'm working on really kicking ###
https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/2664335/303629d17444c18ef5fcb1c7e6388e95
https://www.awesomescreenshot.com/image/2664335/303629d17444c18ef5fcb1c7e6388e95
ChainsawU
Footballguy
missed this one yesterday I was too busy doing the nasty you know when a woman is naked riding you backwards and you can see the little butt hole peeking back at you that's what I was doing and then I ate like five pounds of bbq and took a long nap so can't really be mad right now but I think I might have injured my foot though
I took the F5 - Nationals ML, -170
They're up 4-0 in the top of the first with no outs and the pitcher just walked Daniel Murphy.
God, I ####### love the Nationals.
The Ref
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
rangers and royals o 2.5 F5
lumpy19
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Nyy/min f5 o5.5 -115. Nyy will be tired but neither starter is very good. I think we will some runs here early.
gmbacm
Footballguy
DSI is sister site to bookmaker. Props for key games, but not all games. Interested in the others too...
Ended up having myself a nice day. Turned $45 into $610.00 and was lucky enough to push on the Indians in my attempt to get to +$1,000 on the day.
LINK
Made another Intertops withdrawal ($550 bank wire) putting me at +$2,012 in MLB payouts over the past two-weeks. I really wanted that $1,000 day but if there's one thing I've learned from gambling, you have to take your money when it's on the table...
Get to see Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers destroy the White Sox tomorrow. Then get drunk in Chicago.
LINK
Made another Intertops withdrawal ($550 bank wire) putting me at +$2,012 in MLB payouts over the past two-weeks. I really wanted that $1,000 day but if there's one thing I've learned from gambling, you have to take your money when it's on the table...
Get to see Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers destroy the White Sox tomorrow. Then get drunk in Chicago.
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Interesting. Bookmaker had props for every NFL game last year.DSI is sister site to bookmaker. Props for key games, but not all games. Interested in the others too...
lumpy19
Footballguy
Later in the season they did, not sure which week it started. It'll be interesting to see if props for every game continues when the season starts. I don't recommend hitting the same prop at both dsi and bookmaker. DSI will be quicker to limit than bookmaker.
lumpy19
Footballguy
regularguy
Footballguy
gmbacm
Footballguy
Could be right, I didn't remember that. I recall them having decent props for prime games, and maybe just 3-4 (If any) for other games?
lumpy19
Footballguy
ArbyMelt
Footballguy
It's all the same. You can actually log into sportbet with your 5dimes account and see your wagers.
So if I'm limited to basically $20....can I close my account at 5D and start a new one at Galaxy...or will they automatically link it back up?
lumpy19
Footballguy
You need to be more creative than that. I don't multi-acct 5d, so fast to limit and so much work betting there because of the "that line is being evaluated" message. Use the beginning of football season to hit the shady books, keep the A books clean so you don't get cut for some dumb reason.
What books are in the works for you for football props if you don't mind me asking?
I'm basically down to bookmaker, BOL, heritage, my bookie for props
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lumpy19
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
@lumpy19 need you to help push for our broom smiley here
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/757468-warning-novel-length-a-forum-manifesto/?page=7#comment-20269982
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/757468-warning-novel-length-a-forum-manifesto/?page=7#comment-20269982
lumpy19
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Found this nugget and thought I would share: Boyd is 0-2 with a 13.17 ERA in four career starts at Kauffman Stadium. In seven career appearances against the Royals, he is 1-3 with a 9.11 ERA.
Thinking about KC F5 Over and Det/KC Game over
Nothing locked in yet, but also NYY F5 over, STL F5 Over and Ana F5 Over as well in a strict fade of opposing starting pitching.
Lastly, thinking about the Phi/Mia over and a parlay that won't pay anything of Lad/Hou
GLTA
AB
Thinking about KC F5 Over and Det/KC Game over
Nothing locked in yet, but also NYY F5 over, STL F5 Over and Ana F5 Over as well in a strict fade of opposing starting pitching.
Lastly, thinking about the Phi/Mia over and a parlay that won't pay anything of Lad/Hou
GLTA
AB
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
If you look at the surface you get a lot of movement on the Braves today, 131 moves 33 cents to -102. But the majority of that was done yesterday at BOL. Going by the tweets it looks like the game ended and the "comeback fell short" around 9PM - followed by the biggest move, fifteen cents from 111 to -104 at 10:39 PM. I think it was the two-run ninth.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Forgive me if this sounds stupid but what is the significance of line movement? I've never really paid much attention to it.
Is it strictly based on value? I personally don't get too hard of a #### when I buy into a line at -120 and then it drops to -130 later in the day.
Is it supposed to be an indication that a play is good or bad based on public / sharp money?
Whenever I bet, I just do research on variables I've found to show some type of correlation along with my own intuition. I never consider what the line opened at or whether or not it's a public favorite or not. If I like something and it's -150 or better, I take it.
I just look at it as me against the books. I don't really care what the market is doing as I'm looking to find as many winners as possible.
Thanks.
Is it strictly based on value? I personally don't get too hard of a #### when I buy into a line at -120 and then it drops to -130 later in the day.
Is it supposed to be an indication that a play is good or bad based on public / sharp money?
Whenever I bet, I just do research on variables I've found to show some type of correlation along with my own intuition. I never consider what the line opened at or whether or not it's a public favorite or not. If I like something and it's -150 or better, I take it.
I just look at it as me against the books. I don't really care what the market is doing as I'm looking to find as many winners as possible.
Thanks.
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Yes, line movement is an indicator that smart money is at play. An opening line is obviously just the line originator's opinion. Line movement is then sharp money moving that line (or other factors, such as injury, weather, etc.), sometimes back and forth if there's two-way sharp action. So a closing line weighs the input of sharp bettors, who obviously speak with their bets. Consider if you're a bookmaker, you have a Team A and Team B lined at -110/-110, and then a long-time winner bets on Team B. How would you react?
From a bettor's perspective, and we talked about this earlier in the year, a positive CLV is an indicator that one's on the right path. I try to look at CLV and profitability in tandem. If they're both in the black, I feel like I'm on to something.
There are obviously a couple exceptions, most notably the Mayweather/McGregor fight (the other big one is any Super Bowl) where public money has driven the line down to somewhere between -500/+350 and +500/-700, depending on where you shop. At this point books are balancing their liability some and protecting themselves against sharp Mayweather bettors, who might be willing to pounce *cough* if they drop it too far. Again, depends on a book's risk profile/clientele. That said, every book and operation needs Mayweather.
Chad Millman does a podcast called Behind the Bets, where he has a Vegas bookmaker on pretty regularly, Bob Scucci. He's pretty up-front discussing all of this stuff. They break down each week of the NFL in this manner. The June 21 one discusses the fight: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/5395837
Beat The Greek's twitter account regularly posts information on where sharp money is landing, but not after they've moved their lines and accordingly killed any value there was to be had.
gmbacm
Footballguy
Don't know if you guys have access, but bet365 was/is money for props. Lasted quite a while there before getting cut to nothing. Its the one book I really miss.
