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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (11 Viewers)

Good Posting Judge said:
Yes, line movement is an indicator that smart money is at play. An opening line is obviously just the line originator's opinion. Line movement is then sharp money moving that line (or other factors, such as injury, weather, etc.), sometimes back and forth if there's two-way sharp action. So a closing line weighs the input of sharp bettors, who obviously speak with their bets. Consider if you're a bookmaker, you have a Team A and Team B lined at -110/-110, and then a long-time winner bets on Team B. How would you react?

From a bettor's perspective, and we talked about this earlier in the year, a positive CLV is an indicator that one's on the right path. I try to look at CLV and profitability in tandem. If they're both in the black, I feel like I'm on to something.

There are obviously a couple exceptions, most notably the Mayweather/McGregor fight (the other big one is any Super Bowl) where public money has driven the line down to somewhere between -500/+350 and +500/-700, depending on where you shop. At this point books are balancing their liability some and protecting themselves against sharp Mayweather bettors, who might be willing to pounce *cough* if they drop it too far. Again, depends on a book's risk profile/clientele. That said, every book and operation needs Mayweather.

Chad Millman does a podcast called Behind the Bets, where he has a Vegas bookmaker on pretty regularly, Bob Scucci. He's pretty up-front discussing all of this stuff. They break down each week of the NFL in this manner. The June 21 one discusses the fight: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/5395837

Beat The Greek's twitter account regularly posts information on where sharp money is landing, but not after they've moved their lines and accordingly killed any value there was to be had.
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God bless you, GPJ. You should write a book or teach a class or something.

 
It seems like a lot of Major League Baseball teams have been favored by one and a half runs these days. I know that I have noticed this happening a lot. What is the deal with all these confusing point spreads?

 
Angry Beavers said:
Found this nugget and thought I would share: Boyd is 0-2 with a 13.17 ERA in four career starts at Kauffman Stadium. In seven career appearances against the Royals, he is 1-3 with a 9.11 ERA.

Thinking about KC F5 Over and Det/KC Game over

Nothing locked in yet, but also NYY F5 over, STL F5 Over  and Ana F5 Over as well in a strict fade of opposing starting pitching. 

Lastly,  thinking about the Phi/Mia over and a parlay that won't pay anything of Lad/Hou

GLTA
AB
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Hot and Humid

 
gmbacm said:
Don't know if you guys have access, but bet365 was/is money for props.  Lasted quite a while there before getting cut to nothing.  Its the one book I really miss. :kicksrock:
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You could get a lot of Swirve's stuff there?

 
Eminence said:
Took it again today:

F5 - Toronto / Boston U5.5, -110
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Sorry if you explained yesterday.  Whatcha basing this on Em?  I don't disagree, have zero opinion.  Just curious.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Yes, line movement is an indicator that smart money is at play. An opening line is obviously just the line originator's opinion. Line movement is then sharp money moving that line (or other factors, such as injury, weather, etc.), sometimes back and forth if there's two-way sharp action. So a closing line weighs the input of sharp bettors, who obviously speak with their bets. Consider if you're a bookmaker, you have a Team A and Team B lined at -110/-110, and then a long-time winner bets on Team B. How would you react?

From a bettor's perspective, and we talked about this earlier in the year, a positive CLV is an indicator that one's on the right path. I try to look at CLV and profitability in tandem. If they're both in the black, I feel like I'm on to something.

There are obviously a couple exceptions, most notably the Mayweather/McGregor fight (the other big one is any Super Bowl) where public money has driven the line down to somewhere between -500/+350 and +500/-700, depending on where you shop. At this point books are balancing their liability some and protecting themselves against sharp Mayweather bettors, who might be willing to pounce *cough* if they drop it too far. Again, depends on a book's risk profile/clientele. That said, every book and operation needs Mayweather.

Chad Millman does a podcast called Behind the Bets, where he has a Vegas bookmaker on pretty regularly, Bob Scucci. He's pretty up-front discussing all of this stuff. They break down each week of the NFL in this manner. The June 21 one discusses the fight: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/5395837

Beat The Greek's twitter account regularly posts information on where sharp money is landing, but not after they've moved their lines and accordingly killed any value there was to be had.
Click to expand...


Eminence said:
Forgive me if this sounds stupid but what is the significance of line movement? I've never really paid much attention to it.

Is it strictly based on value? I personally don't get too hard of a #### when I buy into a line at -120 and then it drops to -130 later in the day.

Is it supposed to be an indication that a play is good or bad based on public / sharp money?

Whenever I bet, I just do research on variables I've found to show some type of correlation along with my own intuition. I never consider what the line opened at or whether or not it's a public favorite or not. If I like something and it's -150 or better, I take it.

I just look at it as me against the books. I don't really care what the market is doing as I'm looking to find as many winners as possible.

Thanks.
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Em, not sure if you're into podcasts, but Behind the Bets and Beating the Book with Gill Alexander are both great for sports gamblers.  Inside info, gives you an idea of how "sharps" think.  And not Tout blow-harding.  Alexander was straight up last year, throughout the NFL season.  He kept taking the "sharp" numbers in the NFL (mostly Browns +points) and losing. He was very honest about it.  Anyway, can't recommend them highly enough.  Also Behind the Bets has a College podcast with Stanford Steve and Chris Fallica that is fun.  Don't tail any of these people.  But they are informative and may give you a chance to think more deeply about your reasoning for betting certain sides or totes.

 
facook said:
You could get a lot of Swirve's stuff there?
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Not sure, been a few years since I was cut there.  Just prop lines that presented value compared to the books we are used to...  If you are able to get an account there I would recommend it.

 
facook said:
Sorry if you explained yesterday.  Whatcha basing this on Em?  I don't disagree, have zero opinion.  Just curious.
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Happ has a good record against this Red Sox lineup and pitched well going into the break except the Astros. Which obviously we'll give him a pass on. First game pitching back so he's off rest too, picture 3 runs at most through 5.

The lineup Toronto is putting out there tonight is hitting like .230 against lefties. Picture around 2-3 runs here.

The wind is blowing out but mostly in the direction of the green monster which I can live with.

Liked it the most of available 6PM games besides fading Montero on the Mets. But #### betting on the Cardinals.

If you're asking specifically about yesterday, one or both teams were coming off double headers and Stroman had an awesome history against the Red Sox besides one game he got shelled. Boston's pitcher had a decent history as well.

 
Eminence said:
Took it again today:

F5 - Toronto / Boston U5.5, -110
Click to expand...
Well ####,  a rain delay. The one time I don't check the % chance of rain and I pick the one game that's delayed, lol.

How am I supposed to double-down $50 into $1,000+ with my money tied up like this? It could be hours before I even go 1-0!

 
ChainsawU said:
:tinfoilhat:
If you look at the surface you get a lot of movement on the Braves today, 131 moves 33 cents to -102. But the majority of that was done yesterday at BOL. Going by the tweets it looks like the game ended and the "comeback fell short" around 9PM - followed by the biggest move, fifteen cents from 111 to -104 at 10:39 PM. I think it was the two-run ninth.
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A service released the braves last night.....a different group likes the other side, it seems the 2nd group has more money

 
facook said:
Em, not sure if you're into podcasts, but Behind the Bets and Beating the Book with Gill Alexander are both great for sports gamblers.  Inside info, gives you an idea of how "sharps" think.  And not Tout blow-harding.  Alexander was straight up last year, throughout the NFL season.  He kept taking the "sharp" numbers in the NFL (mostly Browns +points) and losing. He was very honest about it.  Anyway, can't recommend them highly enough.  Also Behind the Bets has a College podcast with Stanford Steve and Chris Fallica that is fun.  Don't tail any of these people.  But they are informative and may give you a chance to think more deeply about your reasoning for betting certain sides or totes.
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Sorry for not responding to this earlier: was drinking, smoking, and driving to the Dodgers game.

Didn't really have enough time to distill this information. But I don't listen to any gambling podcasts personally, I am frequently stoned at 2AM and wanting something to watch / listen so I have probably have time for it.

I'll give these and the podcasts GPJ posted a listen. My only concern is having too many cooks in the kitchen. I hate second guessing myself of making a play based on someone else's info.

It's a lot easier when all you have to worry about is yourself. But all information especially semantics is good information.

 
Eminence said:
Sorry for not responding to this earlier: was drinking, smoking, and driving to the Dodgers game.

Didn't really have enough time to distill this information. But I don't listen to any gambling podcasts personally, I am frequently stoned at 2AM and wanting something to watch / listen so I have probably have time for it.

I'll give these and the podcasts GPJ posted a listen. My only concern is having too many cooks in the kitchen. I hate second guessing myself of making a play based on someone else's info.

It's a lot easier when all you have to worry about is yourself. But all information especially semantics is good information.
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I think it's good to understand the mechanics of how gambling works. Peta's book about betting baseball is really good, so is Konik's book The Smart Money. But none of them really get into giving you a secret sauce, or how to come up with a number.

 
lumpy19 said:
A service released the braves last night.
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People love to be serviced. I didn't even think of this. Service on a massive scale. Now I'm just mad because for me as a businessman I need my entire supply chain to be aligned with current strategy and goals. Even just in our regular lives outside the business world we need all our stakeholders aligned in the same way. Yes I consider all the people in my personal life as stakeholders too - it just makes sense and probably helps me garner purpose, but that's why I'd never use a service: There is no way our goals would ever realistically align.

I know you don't do services and this is probably grapevine info. Thank you for the heads up. I hadn't been considering it.

 
I took F5 - Cubs / Braves U5.5, -105

RA Dickey has been stellar at home. Braves / Cubs schedule is all upside down due to that rain delay.

A few regulars out for the Cubbies. Somewhat of an action play.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good Posting Judge said:
Punches landed o/u's set at 129.5 for Mayweather, 28.5 for McGregor. On RealBettors.
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There are a couple different good ways I've seen to bet Mayweather (there really isn't a bad way to bet Mayweather in this fight, so I should say "better"), one is on a double-chance line where you take Mayweather against McGregor and the draw (-475 at Bov). You can also take Mayweather KO/UD. Just free equity IMO, given that McGregor's going to get pasted on the scorecards.

 
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