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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

hooter311 said:
Man, I hope these guys stand in the pocket late and trade.  That would be the greatest thing in boxing since Gatti-Ward 2.  I love GGG at -150 and its close enough that some of that cartel money is going to push it closer to -135.  Canelo looks beefy, looks to be preparing for a war; not just a match.  Mouth is frothing...
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Canelo's punch resistance is a big ?. He has never faced a skilled guy with this much power in his career. He seems to hold up ok (recovered from r1 against jose cotto), but this is a new matter entirely, this fight.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Canelo's punch resistance is a big ?. He has never faced a skilled guy with this much power in his career. He seems to hold up ok (recovered from r1 against jose cotto), but this is a new matter entirely, this fight.
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Obviously its a little fresh, but its hard to get those images of Floyd teeing off on Canelo out of my mind.  Thought they really nailed the opening line, but not surprised that there was perceived value on Canelo at those odds either.  I think the O/U is set a round late too.  GGG by KO R8.

 
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lumpy19 said:
Response from BOL

This is Cole from Customer Support, I hope this email finds you well.

The reason for this email is to inform you that we have reviewed your claim with the ticket wager  xxxx and xxxxxx that were placed under NFL Regular Season - Seattle Seahawks - Week 1 Starter - Thomas Rawls, but after reviewing this bet we are able to confirm that both bets were graded correctly.

Be aware that those lines were offer as match ups lines between Thomas Rawls  and Eddie Lacy. We are know that Rawls have seen action on this game, however the one who start the game was Lacy who promptly was replaced by Rawls meaning he don't start the game making your wager a loss.
Click to expand...
if you guys bet on Rawls, why are you arguing this?

 
Subject: Outcome Inquiry

Hi David,

This is Ashley from Player Services. I hope this email finds you well.          

We have sent the request back to have the wager review again. Please allow us 24-48hrs to confirm the results and reply back with the outcome of this wager.

Best Regards,

Ashley
Player Services Department

BetOnline,

 
John Fox has held a HC position since he took the Panthers job from George Seifert in 2002. In his first four seasons he went 4-0 SU and ATS in W2. Since then - since 2006 - Fox's team has gone 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS in the second game of the season.

ChainsawU said:
John Fox 0-9 ATS L3 seasons weeks 1-3.
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This is really messing up any fade of the Bucs, but if it's over a touchdown by the time Sunday rolls around (Sagarin makes it +9) I'm going to have to pull the trigger. If I you can get 7½ on the team with a one-game advantage, especially with how the defense has outplayed the offense in NFL W1, I think it's probably good value.

 
Anyone have any evidence of props at the following Vegas properties:

CG Technology Properties: Palazzo, Tropicana, Venetian

Treasure Island

Stratsophere

Wynn

 
I want to go against the public on the Skins Rams total. I like the over with Gruden off a SU loss (15-9 O/U; 8-2 O/U away; 10-1 O/U L11 overall) and then on the artificial surface. Let me get the 44 somehow but I'll take 45. Such a weird W1 for the Rams. Skins should be good for 20 points minimum.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Anyone have any evidence of props at the following Vegas properties:

CG Technology Properties: Palazzo, Tropicana, Venetian

Treasure Island

Stratsophere

Wynn
Click to expand...
Going next weekend... I'll see what's I can find.  With wife and 3 other couples though so not sure I'll be doing extensive prop recon 

 
hooter311 said:
"Dimon differentiated between the bitcoin currency and the underlying blockchain technology, which he said can be useful. Still, he said banks’ application of blockchain “won’t be overnight.”

You can't manipulate the blockchain, which I could see being bad for bankers.  Even they know it's the truth.  Its a ledger that gets checked thousands of times an hour.  It's not going to "break", the concept is infallible.  Blockchain tech is the future of banking and they know it!  Also, as long as it costs more to mine a bitcoin than buy a bitcoin, I just don't see how it could possibly bubble.

*Be warned that people shouting from the roof, "IT ISN'T A BUBBLE!1!", is one of the leading indicators of a bubble.  Just usually, I'm pretty sure those people are dumber than me.
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Dropping like a stone since last night, down $400 in last 12 hours.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Going next weekend... I'll see what's I can find.  With wife and 3 other couples though so not sure I'll be doing extensive prop recon 
Click to expand...
Working on a summary for each line originator.  This link can be a good guide.  Used the info from Ref and my previous visits to populate.  You can gilter by location, casino name or line originator.

The color codes are an attempt to group the physical locations of the casinos close to each other so I can hit up as many different line originators in the shortest amount of time:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1121ICZm-REGhDBkJM_yhDxIPB08_kbZV1jQ7CIjTz4I/edit?usp=sharing

 
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

These are just my takes on what the public is thinking - if you are a non-homer and disagree, feel free to chime in.  

Ignore the lines (sounds dumb, but this is how we've always done it here) and just bet against popular public pleb sentiment:

Texans @ Bengals: Public says "Both these teams suck" - No play

Bills @ Panthers: "Bills are ok, Panthers are ok and probably better".  Both teams pooped on terrible teams last week. Would lean Bills if anything but No Play

Bears @ Buccaneers: "Bears played pretty well last week and might be a scrappy/sleeper team".  Small play on Buccaneers (but it's hard because they have no public perception after not playing last week...so half unit?)

Vikings @ Steelers: "Vikings are going to be really good."  "Steelers almost lost to the Browns."  The only problem here is, when doing these in past years, we tried to ignore the very public teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers).  I still think this qualifies as a strong Steelers bet.

Cardinals @ Colts: "The Colts are the worst team in the NFL." I wish they were playing against a better team though because the Cardinals also looked like ####.  I think Colts for a half unit but I don't like this one.  In fact, it's more a no play than anything else.

Patriots @ Saints: "Patriots Defense Sucks, Saints Defense sucks so Brady is going to shred them."  What to do, what to do.  Personally I'm going to take the Saints, but not because of the anti public perception take.

Browns @ Ravens: How much credit are the Browns getting for last week and being a play away from winning outright?  I don't think they should get any.  However, the Ravens dumped on the Bengals. I wish the Browns had gotten bombed on because they would be an easy play this week.  So I think this is a No play

Eagles @ Chiefs:  Both teams looked fantastic.  No play

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.

Jets @ Raiders: "Jets Suck." "Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC". This is going to hurt, but  Jets is the strongest play of the week

Dolphins @ Chargers: I don't think there's a definitive enough public take on the Chargers to make a play here vs a team that didn't play week 1.  No play

Cowboys @ Broncos: "Cowboys looked good, especially their defense."  "Broncos almost blew it to the Chargers at home."  Strong play Broncos (also I cheated here, Denver is getting points at home too vs an already public team that had a great Week 1 performance?)

49ers @ Seahawks: "49ers sucks": 49ers (small though here, Seahawks lost too)

Redskins @ Rams: "Rams looked really good. ZOMG Sleeper team!" - Redskins easy

Packers @ Falcons: Both teams won, and Falcons seemed to win more easily than the game score indicated.  No play

Lions @ Giants: Too early to say but the public perception is going to lean heavily that the G Men are in Shambles.  Lions looked pretty good.  This is almost definitely a Lions play but we have until Monday night to decide and watch the status on OBJ

1/2 Unit: Buccaneers, 49ers

1 Unit: Steelers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Redskins

Jets and Broncos are the 2 strongest IMO

 
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zander_s said:
I believe this so strongly i can't get my head around wagering on them at all!
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Trust the system.  I know it's hard, but I believe we have historically crushed Week 2 NFL in this thread for a good 5/6 years now.  By doing exactly the above - forgetting what you know or think and doing the opposite. 

 
John Bender said:
Trust the system.  I know it's hard, but I believe we have historically crushed Week 2 NFL in this thread for a good 5/6 years now.  By doing exactly the above - forgetting what you know or think and doing the opposite. 
Click to expand...
Ok, I'm your Huckleberry!

I haven't been around for a while but I'm happy to jump back in with the rest of the degenerates! 

 
John Bender said:
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

These are just my takes on what the public is thinking - if you are a non-homer and disagree, feel free to chime in.  

Ignore the lines (sounds dumb, but this is how we've always done it here) and just bet against popular public pleb sentiment:

Texans @ Bengals: Public says "Both these teams suck" - No play

Bills @ Panthers: "Bills are ok, Panthers are ok and probably better".  Both teams pooped on terrible teams last week. Would lean Bills if anything but No Play

Bears @ Buccaneers: "Bears played pretty well last week and might be a scrappy/sleeper team".  Small play on Buccaneers (but it's hard because they have no public perception after not playing last week...so half unit?)

Vikings @ Steelers: "Vikings are going to be really good."  "Steelers almost lost to the Browns."  The only problem here is, when doing these in past years, we tried to ignore the very public teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers).  I still think this qualifies as a strong Steelers bet.

Cardinals @ Colts: "The Colts are the worst team in the NFL." I wish they were playing against a better team though because the Cardinals also looked like ####.  I think Colts for a half unit but I don't like this one.  In fact, it's more a no play than anything else.

Patriots @ Saints: "Patriots Defense Sucks, Saints Defense sucks so Brady is going to shred them."  What to do, what to do.  Personally I'm going to take the Saints, but not because of the anti public perception take.

Browns @ Ravens: How much credit are the Browns getting for last week and being a play away from winning outright?  I don't think they should get any.  However, the Ravens dumped on the Bengals. I wish the Browns had gotten bombed on because they would be an easy play this week.  So I think this is a No play

Eagles @ Chiefs:  Both teams looked fantastic.  No play

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.

Jets @ Raiders: "Jets Suck." "Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC". This is going to hurt, but  Jets is the strongest play of the week

Dolphins @ Chargers: I don't think there's a definitive enough public take on the Chargers to make a play here vs a team that didn't play week 1.  No play

Cowboys @ Broncos: "Cowboys looked good, especially their defense."  "Broncos almost blew it to the Chargers at home."  Strong play Broncos (also I cheated here, Denver is getting points at home too vs an already public team that had a great Week 1 performance?)

49ers @ Seahawks: "49ers sucks": 49ers (small though here, Seahawks lost too)

Redskins @ Rams: "Rams looked really good. ZOMG Sleeper team!" - Redskins easy

Packers @ Falcons: Both teams won, and Falcons seemed to win more easily than the game score indicated.  No play

Lions @ Giants: Too early to say but the public perception is going to lean heavily that the G Men are in Shambles.  Lions looked pretty good.  This is almost definitely a Lions play but we have until Monday night to decide and watch the status on OBJ

1/2 Unit: Buccaneers, 49ers

1 Unit: Steelers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Redskins

Jets and Broncos are the 2 strongest IMO
Click to expand...
I have tailed you on these every Week 2 for a few years now, the first being a Week 2 in Vegas when I was about the only happy guy in The Mirage book after going contrarian.  

That Giants game is a weird one. NYG -3 right now, you'd think they have to be assuming OBJ plays.  

 
I grabbed some Pats -6.5.  I think they get it together and shred the Saints (note:  This should be good support of Benders Saints lean because I'm pretty square) 

Giants should cover pretty easily IMO

 
John Bender said:
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

These are just my takes on what the public is thinking - if you are a non-homer and disagree, feel free to chime in.  

Ignore the lines (sounds dumb, but this is how we've always done it here) and just bet against popular public pleb sentiment:

Texans @ Bengals: Public says "Both these teams suck" - No play

Bills @ Panthers: "Bills are ok, Panthers are ok and probably better".  Both teams pooped on terrible teams last week. Would lean Bills if anything but No Play

Bears @ Buccaneers: "Bears played pretty well last week and might be a scrappy/sleeper team".  Small play on Buccaneers (but it's hard because they have no public perception after not playing last week...so half unit?)

Vikings @ Steelers: "Vikings are going to be really good."  "Steelers almost lost to the Browns."  The only problem here is, when doing these in past years, we tried to ignore the very public teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers).  I still think this qualifies as a strong Steelers bet.

Cardinals @ Colts: "The Colts are the worst team in the NFL." I wish they were playing against a better team though because the Cardinals also looked like ####.  I think Colts for a half unit but I don't like this one.  In fact, it's more a no play than anything else.

Patriots @ Saints: "Patriots Defense Sucks, Saints Defense sucks so Brady is going to shred them."  What to do, what to do.  Personally I'm going to take the Saints, but not because of the anti public perception take.

Browns @ Ravens: How much credit are the Browns getting for last week and being a play away from winning outright?  I don't think they should get any.  However, the Ravens dumped on the Bengals. I wish the Browns had gotten bombed on because they would be an easy play this week.  So I think this is a No play

Eagles @ Chiefs:  Both teams looked fantastic.  No play

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.

Jets @ Raiders: "Jets Suck." "Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC". This is going to hurt, but  Jets is the strongest play of the week

Dolphins @ Chargers: I don't think there's a definitive enough public take on the Chargers to make a play here vs a team that didn't play week 1.  No play

Cowboys @ Broncos: "Cowboys looked good, especially their defense."  "Broncos almost blew it to the Chargers at home."  Strong play Broncos (also I cheated here, Denver is getting points at home too vs an already public team that had a great Week 1 performance?)

49ers @ Seahawks: "49ers sucks": 49ers (small though here, Seahawks lost too)

Redskins @ Rams: "Rams looked really good. ZOMG Sleeper team!" - Redskins easy

Packers @ Falcons: Both teams won, and Falcons seemed to win more easily than the game score indicated.  No play

Lions @ Giants: Too early to say but the public perception is going to lean heavily that the G Men are in Shambles.  Lions looked pretty good.  This is almost definitely a Lions play but we have until Monday night to decide and watch the status on OBJ

1/2 Unit: Buccaneers, 49ers

1 Unit: Steelers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Redskins

Jets and Broncos are the 2 strongest IMO
Click to expand...
:tail: for all of the 1U plays :thumbup:

 
John Bender said:
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.
Click to expand...
Agree. Lost in all of the praise for Jags' defense is how BAD the Texans OL is right now. When your steadiest lineman is a 5th round rookie, that's not good.

Titans have much better OL and history of running the ball down Jags' throat and Mariota running like crazy.

Not only like the Titans, but would look at Titans TT over and Mariota rushing over.

 
BOL sending me Rotoworld links to verify that Lacy was the starter :wall:

BREAKING NEWS!!!! 

please disregard the previous email, as it has been confirmed all wagers on this event have been re-scored as a No Action, reimbursing your risking amount.
Click to expand...
VICTORY!!!! best push ever

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hello Swirv,

Please be informed after further review from our Sportsbook team and the links you sent in, we have re-scored these wagers as a No action, reimbursing your risk amount.

Score more with Bitcoin and take advantage of hassle free deposits, faster withdrawals and zero transaction fees. Click here for details.

If you have any other questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Best Regards,

 
John Bender said:
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

These are just my takes on what the public is thinking - if you are a non-homer and disagree, feel free to chime in.  

Ignore the lines (sounds dumb, but this is how we've always done it here) and just bet against popular public pleb sentiment:

Texans @ Bengals: Public says "Both these teams suck" - No play

Bills @ Panthers: "Bills are ok, Panthers are ok and probably better".  Both teams pooped on terrible teams last week. Would lean Bills if anything but No Play

Bears @ Buccaneers: "Bears played pretty well last week and might be a scrappy/sleeper team".  Small play on Buccaneers (but it's hard because they have no public perception after not playing last week...so half unit?)

Vikings @ Steelers: "Vikings are going to be really good."  "Steelers almost lost to the Browns."  The only problem here is, when doing these in past years, we tried to ignore the very public teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers).  I still think this qualifies as a strong Steelers bet.

Cardinals @ Colts: "The Colts are the worst team in the NFL." I wish they were playing against a better team though because the Cardinals also looked like ####.  I think Colts for a half unit but I don't like this one.  In fact, it's more a no play than anything else.

Patriots @ Saints: "Patriots Defense Sucks, Saints Defense sucks so Brady is going to shred them."  What to do, what to do.  Personally I'm going to take the Saints, but not because of the anti public perception take.

Browns @ Ravens: How much credit are the Browns getting for last week and being a play away from winning outright?  I don't think they should get any.  However, the Ravens dumped on the Bengals. I wish the Browns had gotten bombed on because they would be an easy play this week.  So I think this is a No play

Eagles @ Chiefs:  Both teams looked fantastic.  No play

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.

Jets @ Raiders: "Jets Suck." "Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC". This is going to hurt, but  Jets is the strongest play of the week

Dolphins @ Chargers: I don't think there's a definitive enough public take on the Chargers to make a play here vs a team that didn't play week 1.  No play

Cowboys @ Broncos: "Cowboys looked good, especially their defense."  "Broncos almost blew it to the Chargers at home."  Strong play Broncos (also I cheated here, Denver is getting points at home too vs an already public team that had a great Week 1 performance?)

49ers @ Seahawks: "49ers sucks": 49ers (small though here, Seahawks lost too)

Redskins @ Rams: "Rams looked really good. ZOMG Sleeper team!" - Redskins easy

Packers @ Falcons: Both teams won, and Falcons seemed to win more easily than the game score indicated.  No play

Lions @ Giants: Too early to say but the public perception is going to lean heavily that the G Men are in Shambles.  Lions looked pretty good.  This is almost definitely a Lions play but we have until Monday night to decide and watch the status on OBJ

1/2 Unit: Buccaneers, 49ers

1 Unit: Steelers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Redskins

Jets and Broncos are the 2 strongest IMO
Click to expand...
Just a little backing on your leans/plays, from the perspective of % of bets as of Wednesday:

73% on Minny

78% on Cards

84% on Pats (ho.lee.crap)

75% on Titans (this is the outlier)

73% on Raiders

74% on Dallas

77% on Seahawks

58% on Rams - meh

73% on Lions

I am going to keep tabs, but I may double down this weekend on everything minus Tennessee and Rams.

 
Seahawks and Chargers are both going to cover easily. I think those two win by 20 points each, minimum. Seahawks on the home opener and then Chargers with a week's more experience: National TV on the road v division rival the Chargers barely lost? And now they get to come home? To play an east coast team in its first game of the season..? No brainer.

 
ChainsawU said:
Seahawks and Chargers are both going to cover easily. I think those two win by 20 points each, minimum. Seahawks on the home opener and then Chargers with a week's more experience: National TV on the road v division rival the Chargers barely lost? And now they get to come home? To play an east coast team in its first game of the season..? No brainer.
Click to expand...
To be honest, I tend to agree with you.  But...I know you love trends...

Bet Labs Sports‏ @Bet_Labs

Favorites of 10 or more points against division rival: 75-105 ATS since 2005

 
Will probably look to play the New Mexico TT over tomorrow night. I'm guessing it will be around 22. Lobo's have scored 21 or more 4 of the last 5 years and Boise has struggled defending Bob Davie's offense since he's been there. Short week, coming off of 3OT meltdown. I think the +14.5 may be good too, just like the TT over better.

 
facook said:
To be honest, I tend to agree with you.  But...I know you love trends... Bet Labs Sports‏ @Bet_Labs Favorites of 10 or more points against division rival: 75-105 ATS since 2005
Click to expand...
Thank you, and I get it. But I'm only getting 53% for the dog in that situation - regular season and playoffs. Not ideal, but look at Pete. He has given more than 12 points twelve times in his career and covered ten of them. And he literally either wins his home openers by ≤ 3 or ≥ 20. I'd confidently lay 19.5 with the Seahawks if I could. This might be the week I finally figure out what a pleaser is. Also, just to be anal about it because I lost 3u, but bet labs had a real good good situational stat about the 49ers last week too. I'll put my money where my mouth is on Sunday.

 
I'll take the Colts to win straight up on Sunday. Pagano after a loss has gone 23-8 ATS in the subsequent game (9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS as the dog). Might say that was a pretty easy situation with Andrew Luck, but they also did it by only allowing 20 points a game. Sagarin's number makes it a +1 for the home team.

 
Bitcoin is a cruel mistress.   SB finally processed my withdrawal last night but I stupidly decided to wait before depositing into Bovada.  Of course this morning it kept dropping and I kept waiting for a rebound before finally biting the bullet and taking  a loss.  I'm sure it'll rebound nicely now since it looks like I sold at the worst possible time.  Oh well easy come, easy go

 
Europa League 

Arsenal Koln und 2.5 +145

First time Arsenal has missed more prestigious and much more lucrative Champions  League in decades.  Europa involves a lot of travel with not much to offer. A lot of EPL teams would rather aim on winning their league or Top 4 at least. Arsenal plays Chelsea Sunday. Sunday more important rivalry match. Koln plays a very slow methodical game. Defense first, lots of passes.

I expect Arsenal to sleep walk thru 1st half and squeak  out a 1 nil win in 2nd half.

Arsenal playing B team

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/arsenal-squad-vs-cologne-revealed-11167704

 
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