*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (14 Viewers)

[JaxBill]

No idea why my post looks like a ransom note

 

[JaxBill]

Villareal -FC Astana ov 1.5 1H +150

Both teams can score and get scored upon. Astana gave up 5 to Celtic a couple weeks ago. 

 

[JaxBill]

Will probably look to play the New Mexico TT over tomorrow night. I'm guessing it will be around 22. Lobo's have scored 21 or more 4 of the last 5 years and Boise has struggled defending Bob Davie's offense since he's been there. Short week, coming off of 3OT meltdown. I think the +14.5 may be good too, just like the TT over better.

Fyi, Bob Davie and New Mexico  center of NCAA investigation. 

 

[Tiger Fan]

Cards, Jets, and Philly don't play their home openers until week 3. And the Jets and Eagles are facing divisional opponents in that spot. Since 2011, when a team is looking at a divisional game in their week 3 home opener, they've gone 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS in week 2. sdql

So that's a strong fade on Philly and the Jets in week 2 looking ahead to the divisional game in their home opener in week 3. Philly plays at Arrowhead and the Jets play all the way in Oakland. Two really terrible spots. That's nuts. Are you ready for some NFL.

Had this as a reminder

 

[gussy]

Fyi, Bob Davie and New Mexico  center of NCAA investigation. 

Just saw this.........................now not sure what to do.

 

[ChainsawU]

This might be the week I finally figure out what a pleaser is.

Texans +6 -109

+600 2 Team Teaser (ties push) Pleaser tp 6pts NFL:
1. Texans pk
2. Open

 

[ChainsawU]

O'Brien versus Marvin tonight. I'll take the Texans straight up. Thanks for the points.

 

[ChainsawU]

I saw a tweet about prime time Dalton. If you define prime time as SNF, Monday, and Thursday, Dalton has gone 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS (avg line -3):
Scoring < 22: 1-8 SU and ATS
Scoring ≥ 22: 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS

With that Bengals' team total lined at 22 -110 I imagine the ML and ATS fade is the way. Usually you don't want O'Brien in non-division matchups, but he has won the last two versus Marvin Lewis the last two seasons. Also Sagarin ranks these two teams about even, as the 22nd and 24th-ranked teams, so that just about makes home field the difference.

 

[ChainsawU]

Some dude on twitter also said Marvin Lewis 22-7 7-22 SU in prime time. I don't know if that's right or not. I got 10-17 SU and 11-15-1 ATS since 2004. But check it out, there's the same team total cleavage at 22:
Scoring < 22: 3-16 SU and 3-15-1 ATS
Scoring ≥ 22: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS

So I guess if you want to back the Bengals just play the o22 since it's cheaper than the ML.

 

[Frostillicus]

Hopkins o 5.5

Hopkins o 65.5

 

[jamil]

Hopkins o 5.5

Hopkins o 65.5

Oh crap

 

[ChainsawU]

Texans o20 +203
Texans/Cincy o37 -135

 

[Billy Bats]

Texans o20 +203
Texans/Cincy o37 -135

Oh crap II.

Two bad offensive lines on a short week? I'm riding the unders.  

 

[zander_s]

Texans Over 17.5 +135

Texans +6.5 -110

Parlay

Texans +6.5 / Texas-Cincy O38 +260

 

[facook]

Oh crap II.

Two bad offensive lines on a short week? I'm riding the unders.  

That is such a catch 22 isn't it?  We figure the Ds will dominate (I'm on the under too), but that could also result in turnovers, short fields and NOTDs. Sigh.

 

[hooter311]

Lamar Miller -7 +110 over Jeremy Hill-  Bookmaker

It's fantasy points, not yards, I probably did something dumb.

 

[jamil]

Mine was oh crap cause I'm on the o5.5 too but that means I'm riding with @Frostillicus

 

[regularguy]

Lamar Miller -7 +110 over Jeremy Hill-  Bookmaker

I think that's total yards.

I thought it might be fantasy points.  I played Miller -30.5 yards over Hill at DSI.

 

[regularguy]

Mine was oh crap cause I'm on the o5.5 too but that means I'm riding with @Frostillicus

  I'm on over rec and under yards.   

 

[hooter311]

I thought it might be fantasy points.  I played Miller -30.5 yards over Hill at DSI.

Thank you, that seemed way too easy.  I just saw the + and immediately bit.  That was maybe dumb then. 

 

[Billy Bats]

That is such a catch 22 isn't it?  We figure the Ds will dominate (I'm on the under too), but that could also result in turnovers, short fields and NOTDs. Sigh.

No doubt, I'm assuming my unders loss will be because of multiple pick sixes.  

 

[hooter311]

PGA Championship:

R1 Matchups:

Stenson -.5 -114 over Dufner  Winner

Cink -115 over List  Winner

2-0 

+2 u

 

[hooter311]

I thought it might be fantasy points.  I played Miller -30.5 yards over Hill at DSI.

Reading the rules and I have no idea if receptions count for a point or not.  Your bet is a whole lot sharper than mine though.

 

[lumpy19]

My card

Mixon o47.5 r&r

miller o62.5 rushing

Strong u47.5 receiving

Green o4.5 rec -160

Gio u67.5 r&r

Miller -30.5 rushing over Hill

Hopkins +12.5 over green

Watson u1.5 td passes -200

Watson +30.5 over Dalton

Dalton o217.5 passing

Houston +6

 

[JaxBill]

O'Brien versus Marvin tonight. I'll take the Texans straight up. Thanks for the points.

This. Don't overthink it. Ugly Thursday night game. Take the 6 points against a guy who every year people ask, "Is this his final year?"

For good measure adding Dalton under 21 completions -115

 

[JaxBill]

Thoughts on Mixon over 39.5 rushing?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

all I know is that Tyler Widest is catching that first touchdown pass tonight 

 

[JaxBill]

Total sacks by both teams over 5.5 even

 

[lumpy19]

Thoughts on Mixon over 39.5 rushing?

I like mixon quite a bit tonight, I think the issue with that number is it's rushing only, I think he'll be used more in the receiving game.  Rushing he has to split with gio and hill, receving he splits with gio, I don't think hill will be part of the passing game.

 

[Frostillicus]

Mine was oh crap cause I'm on the o5.5 too but that means I'm riding with @Frostillicus

Hey!

 

[Billy Bats]

What number did you fellas get on DHop O5.5?

 

[Billy Bats]

 Yes Def/SPT TD +240 seems nice. @facook

 

[lumpy19]

My card

Mixon o47.5 r&r

miller o62.5 rushing

Strong u47.5 receiving

Green o4.5 rec -160

Gio u67.5 r&r

Miller -30.5 rushing over Hill

Hopkins +12.5 over green

Watson u1.5 td passes -200

Watson +30.5 over Dalton

Dalton o217.5 passing

Houston +6

Adding Tyler boyd u25.5 -135 and u2.5 -125

braxton miller u24.5 -150 and u2 +155

 

[gussy]

All 3 ESPN experts on Louisville and Florida. I totally lean Tennessee if any side at all there and I've already backed Clemson hugely. Interesting.

 

[gussy]

New Mexico TT O20 (-120)

Debated. Still like it at this number. The investigation is about Davie's treatment of players, they still put forth lots of effort in the 2H last week with the change at QB. I'm assuming whoever it is on the team that is whining about mistreatment has known about it prior to today. Could be wrong. Last 5 years Lobo's have scored 29-17-49-31-21 against Boise. Good situational spot.

 

[ArbyMelt]

Tyler Boyd is a healthy scratch

 

[lumpy19]

Tyler Boyd is a healthy scratch

damnit

 

[ChainsawU]

sbr consensus $

Texans +200

 

[ChainsawU]

UC Bearcat looks pretty good to the public dog so far..

 

[swirvenirvin]

My card

Mixon o47.5 r&r

miller o62.5 rushing

Strong u47.5 receiving

Green o4.5 rec -160

Gio u67.5 r&r

Miller -30.5 rushing over Hill

Hopkins +12.5 over green

Watson u1.5 td passes -200

Watson +30.5 over Dalton

Dalton o217.5 passing

Houston +6

Where did you get the bolded from 

 

[lumpy19]

Where did you get the bolded from 

BOL openers 

 

[comfortably numb]

@Aaron Rudnicki

thoughts on McKinney 8.5 and Clowney 2.5?

 

[swirvenirvin]

anyone see a site with college props tonight?

 

[gussy]

Teased Panthers -1/Chiefs PK/Broncos +8.5 in sets of 2

 

[gussy]

JHILL U29.5 (-115)
Deshaun O21.5 RU YDS (-130)
Lamar O69.5 (-135)
Eifert U40.5 (-135)
Dalton U235.5 (-115)

 

[The Ref]

To the Local Book who took a max bets on Clemson to win the ACC, Kizer to win OROY, Duke at 8-1, Marshall O5, Rice O3.5 and a few other generally +EV bets who shut it down and walked away today because your main customer who you weren't bankrolled for hit a near 6 figure 6 teamer on your ###..... have a merry Christmas.

 

[comfortably numb]

Ahhh that sucks!

 

[facook]

To the Local Book who took a max bets on Clemson to win the ACC, Kizer to win OROY, Duke at 8-1, Marshall O5, Rice O3.5 and a few other generally +EV bets who shut it down and walked away today because your main customer who you weren't bankrolled for hit a near 6 figure 6 teamer on your ###..... have a merry Christmas.

It's almost like this game is rigged.

 

[comfortably numb]

We gonna get a Sergio dipp cameo tonight?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

To the Local Book who took a max bets on Clemson to win the ACC, Kizer to win OROY, Duke at 8-1, Marshall O5, Rice O3.5 and a few other generally +EV bets who shut it down and walked away today because your main customer who you weren't bankrolled for hit a near 6 figure 6 teamer on your ###..... have a merry Christmas.

Oof