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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

ChainsawU said:
Cards, Jets, and Philly don't play their home openers until week 3. And the Jets and Eagles are facing divisional opponents in that spot. Since 2011, when a team is looking at a divisional game in their week 3 home opener, they've gone 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS in week 2. sdql

So that's a strong fade on Philly and the Jets in week 2 looking ahead to the divisional game in their home opener in week 3. Philly plays at Arrowhead and the Jets play all the way in Oakland. Two really terrible spots. That's nuts. Are you ready for some NFL.
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John Bender said:
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

These are just my takes on what the public is thinking - if you are a non-homer and disagree, feel free to chime in.  

Ignore the lines (sounds dumb, but this is how we've always done it here) and just bet against popular public pleb sentiment:

Texans @ Bengals: Public says "Both these teams suck" - No play

Bills @ Panthers: "Bills are ok, Panthers are ok and probably better".  Both teams pooped on terrible teams last week. Would lean Bills if anything but No Play

Bears @ Buccaneers: "Bears played pretty well last week and might be a scrappy/sleeper team".  Small play on Buccaneers (but it's hard because they have no public perception after not playing last week...so half unit?)

Vikings @ Steelers: "Vikings are going to be really good."  "Steelers almost lost to the Browns."  The only problem here is, when doing these in past years, we tried to ignore the very public teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers).  I still think this qualifies as a strong Steelers bet.

Cardinals @ Colts: "The Colts are the worst team in the NFL." I wish they were playing against a better team though because the Cardinals also looked like ####.  I think Colts for a half unit but I don't like this one.  In fact, it's more a no play than anything else.

Patriots @ Saints: "Patriots Defense Sucks, Saints Defense sucks so Brady is going to shred them."  What to do, what to do.  Personally I'm going to take the Saints, but not because of the anti public perception take.

Browns @ Ravens: How much credit are the Browns getting for last week and being a play away from winning outright?  I don't think they should get any.  However, the Ravens dumped on the Bengals. I wish the Browns had gotten bombed on because they would be an easy play this week.  So I think this is a No play

Eagles @ Chiefs:  Both teams looked fantastic.  No play

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.

Jets @ Raiders: "Jets Suck." "Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC". This is going to hurt, but  Jets is the strongest play of the week

Dolphins @ Chargers: I don't think there's a definitive enough public take on the Chargers to make a play here vs a team that didn't play week 1.  No play

Cowboys @ Broncos: "Cowboys looked good, especially their defense."  "Broncos almost blew it to the Chargers at home."  Strong play Broncos (also I cheated here, Denver is getting points at home too vs an already public team that had a great Week 1 performance?)

49ers @ Seahawks: "49ers sucks": 49ers (small though here, Seahawks lost too)

Redskins @ Rams: "Rams looked really good. ZOMG Sleeper team!" - Redskins easy

Packers @ Falcons: Both teams won, and Falcons seemed to win more easily than the game score indicated.  No play

Lions @ Giants: Too early to say but the public perception is going to lean heavily that the G Men are in Shambles.  Lions looked pretty good.  This is almost definitely a Lions play but we have until Monday night to decide and watch the status on OBJ

1/2 Unit: Buccaneers, 49ers

1 Unit: Steelers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Redskins

Jets and Broncos are the 2 strongest IMO
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Was able to cobble together a swell little 5 teamer that paid 24:1 (TEN/PIT/KC/OAK/DEN)

Thanks fellas :banned:

 
Obv I wasnt around for almost a year so not asking for some detailed spiel but did Rude ban the hottest tout handicapper for good? 

Briefly saw some posts few weeks ago an can guess what happened .. Is the dude hitting picks ? only ask bc I don't do twitter 

 
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money.never.sleeps said:
Obv I wasnt around for almost a year so not asking for some detailed spiel but did Rude ban the hottest tout handicapper for good? 

Briefly saw some posts few weeks ago an can guess what happened .. Is the dude hitting picks ? only ask bc I don't do twitter 
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Homophobic slur was last straw.

Aaron said peace, "this is what I DO!!"

Em is on twitter doing his thing and he is still the greatest,  just ask him, he'll tell you.

 
comfortably numb said:
Homophobic slur was last straw.

Aaron said peace, "this is what I DO!!"

Em is on twitter doing his thing and he is still the greatest,  just ask him, he'll tell you.
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Yikes...  dude was always nice to me, hit me with his info (always quick which he never had to do) & made me $$$... esp NBA 

he was a catch-22 so kinda sad .. this was his place to be "someone"  that obv contradicted his actual life . Yumg buck tho .. maybe In time time big dog will let him back in if he apologizes & stops crossing the line 

Just curious if he's actually hitting winners 

 
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got_nugs said:
They sold the #### out of it on Saturday during the FSU Bama game though!  mmmmm
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I believe that ... those spicy chicken sandwiches & honey butter chicken biscuits with a sweet tea hit the SPOT .... :yes:

they don't serve alcohol at college games, right? Haven't been to a game in years ..

& they just showed some food items that Arthur Blank wouldn't raise prices on.... dude must be a stoner .... Jerry Jones johnmy walker blue drinking ### charges $6.50 for a water .... 

 
money.never.sleeps said:
Yikes...  dude was always nice to me, hit me with his info (always quick which he never had to do) & made me $$$... esp NBA 

he was a catch-22 so kinda sad .. this was his place to be "someone"  that obv contradicted his actual life . Yumg buck tho .. maybe In time time big dog will let him back in if he apologizes & stops crossing the line 

Just curious if he's actually hitting winners 
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Same guy.  Hit's 3 or 4 or 5 in a row, crows about it for a while.  Loses 14 out of 16 and talks about how only idiots bet certain sports.  And still has about 15 people reading what he says.

I really did think he could make it as a twitter tout.  But he didn't really follow the plan I foresaw so now I think he's just kinda treading water.

 
money.never.sleeps said:
I believe that ... those spicy chicken sandwiches & honey butter chicken biscuits with a sweet tea hit the SPOT .... :yes:

they don't serve alcohol at college games, right? Haven't been to a game in years ..

& they just showed some food items that Arthur Blank wouldn't raise prices on.... dude must be a stoner .... Jerry Jones johnmy walker blue drinking ### charges $6.50 for a water .... 
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Beers were $5!  They don't sell beer on FSU's campus, not if that's the case across the country, but off site you can get beer.

 
Also - Big fan of Snell and what UK football has done the last year or two.  That said they ain't ready for a Florida yet.

Gators -2.5

 
"Eleven point game, so this game is certainly not over, well, for some of our friends it's over, if you get my drift" Al Michaels

:lmao:

 
anyone happen to know rules for player props at 5d?

they cancelled all my Jordy Nelson unders that I thought would be easy winners when he left with an injury.

He clearly started the game, but didn't have any targets so I assume that's why they treated him as if he didn't play. Hopefully they correct that.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
anyone happen to know rules for player props at 5d?

they cancelled all my Jordy Nelson unders that I thought would be easy winners when he left with an injury.

He clearly started the game, but didn't have any targets so I assume that's why they treated him as if he didn't play. Hopefully they correct that.
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Send NFL gamebook showing he started, should be an easy fix

They're a must start book(at least they used to be) and he definitely started.

 
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lumpy19 said:
Send NFL gamebook showing he started, should be an easy fix

They're a must start book(at least they used to be) and he definitely started.
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looks like they already adjusted them overnight. :thumbup:

 
Eli has faded into late-career Jake Delhomme/Matt Schaub territory as a dead-armed, gun-shy passer who operates sheepishly in leaky pass protection. The Cowboys blitzed the Giants on just 3-of-41 Manning dropbacks (7%) but still shut the offense down, holding the G-Men to three points.
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I think you're dead-armed, sheepish, and gun-shy. Your breath stinks and I hate the books you read. You shake hands like a fish and your wife is cheating on you.

 
Those are my three bold predictions based on a lot of stuff but mainly: Jim Caldwell on national TV and week two MNF results. Plus the slicked-back hair and baggy leisure wear of Giants' head coach Ben McAdoo.

 
ChainsawU said:
no one is going to know about Beckham until later, and I think they just put the +3 out there because they needed something
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I saw Rapoport and Schefty tweet over the weekend they speculate he'll be active. Not a guarantee, but I am in for 1U on NYG -3 -120. Line opened at -5, and I'm not ready to get behind Stafford winning on the road because he came back on a spiraling AZ team that didn't have DJ in 2H of their comeback at home. Under 42 a likely play too, but I want to see if that gets pushed up with later over betting before I punch it.

 
mquinnjr said:
Under 42 a likely play too, but I want to see if that gets pushed up with later over betting before I punch it.
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On last week's broadcast Collinsworth was saying that you have to at least put Beckham on the field as a decoy for a couple plays. So he will probably start the game. I'd bet he starts the game. Also it's an interesting timetable for his start - Monday Night Football home opener. But once that news breaks the total will probably go up.

 
I can't find it but I remember dudes at CTG having some type of back to back weeks on SNF/MNF fade last season. Maybe the other way around idk.

 
Yo this might be the week for the Jets. They own the best SU and ATS % versus the Dolphins of any two teams the L20 seasons except for maybe Steelers Bengals.

 
Silva's guess is that we'll see Jenkins matched up more with Jones while Golladay draws Giants 2016 first-round disappointment RCB Eli Apple in significant doses. Then this other dude Chris Burke says that last week while Jenkins and Bryant clashed, the Cowboys completed eight of 10 passes thrown Apple's direction for 99 yards.

Golladay o3½ +100
Golladay o39½ -140

 
Portugal

Chaves despite being in last place has had a tough schedule losing to the benfica on a last second pk. They had Porto late into the game 0-0.

They have 1pt and are playing a team with 5pts who has not had much of a challlenge to date. Chaves needs at least 1pt and at + odds at home I'll take the chance they get all 3pts.

 
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