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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

Thanks for the response! I do hate laying 8 on the road, but this Vols team just looks like dog#### and Georgia looks like a legit top 10-12 squad. I'm just torn. The only concern I have is their playing to level of opponent... OT road win against solid Ga Tech squad and a decent Florida team needed a hail mary in the swamp to best us. But then I look at stinkers like the UMass game combined with the overall "Dead Man Walking" Feeling around the program... Just feels like Georgia is going to walk into Neyland and drive that stake into Jones' heart.  But I suppose you're right... 

Any thoughts on Miss St getting 9 going into Auburn? 

Beginning to wonder if a UGA -1.5 / AUB -2.5 tease doesn't feel +EV.... 
I think Miss St was way over valued going into last week and now are under valued this week.  I'm kinda hoping it gets up to 10 and if it does I think I'm pulling the trigger.

 
Zero worries man.... I asked for Info, and you hooked a brotha up bigtime. Thank you VERY much for the historicals. Eye opening. I'm admittedly too close to the Vols and am as down on them as anyone given last week's performance. File under the old "Nobody's ever as bad or as good as they looked in that last game". 

Again, really appreciate the info, GB. :thumbup:  
Or as good as they looked in their last game.  I think this is a prime letdown opportunity for UGA on the road against a team they nobody respects right now.  UGA probably will be out for revenge though after the hail mary loss last year so that may be the one thing keeping them from overlooking the Vols.  I'd love to bet on UT, but I'm just going to pull for them and be happy if UGA loses. 

 
Portugal

I'll get off the Chaves train in 2 weeks after the break when they face one of the big boys but for now lets see if we can get 3 in a row
Chaves-119 over Tondela
Tuuuurrible 

2 reds for tondela for 40m and chaves can't get a goal in. Just terrible. They left 2pts on the table.

 
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Someone please talk me out of backing up the truck on UGA -8 in Knoxville this Saturday? 

Home game in Neyland... sure... but so was UMass. The Crowds are thinning... the fans have turned on Butch. The team is dinged up. 

 
I played UGA at -7 (-120) this morning

Also put a future on UGA at +1400 to win NC earlier in the week

 
Sagarin has them at #8, so you're right. But look at recent history. Tennessee has scored 179 points on Georgia the L5 seasons (36±5 ppg). That's the most points that Georgia has allowed to any team during that time, with the next-closest being 137 allowed in five games versus the Gamecocks. So since 2012 Tennessee has scored 42 more points on Georgia than any other team in football. The last time Georgia beat them by more than 8 points was seven years ago, with the last six games decided by 8,7,3,3,-7,-3 points per game. And the average line in those games was Georgia by a touchdown.

That's a strong argument not to back the truck up is all. I didn't mean to rain on you that hard. :lol:
Also played O47 in this game

 
NU vs. Illini

JD Spielman U4.5 receptions (EV) if you can find it. JD got 5 catches last week in a game the Huskers threw more than
they should have and WITHOUT Stanley Morgan in the lineup. Morgan should be back tonight. He's Tanner Lee's security
blanket and Lee only has eyes for Morgan, to the point where he forces him the ball far more than he should. Pierson El
is also lined at U4.5 (-120) which I kind of like as well, but if Morgan gets banged up again he probably becomes the #1 WR.

I THINK this is a good matchup for the Huskers because I think they can impose their will on the ground without having to
pray that Lee doesn't make terrible decisions, and I don't think the Illini have a QB that can cause issues for the Husker
secondary, which has been the problem on D. I'm on the Huskers -5 1/2, but don't tail that. I'm a clear homer.

 
Wisconsin - 16

Tennessee +8 :boxing:
Not on the NW/Wisky game, but there are some interesting historical angles pointing to NW, especially their success against Wisky, in Madison, when the Badgers have been ranked. Very well could be the right side, NW hasn't shown anything this year. Big number.

 
I need NFL 4PM action junk and I'm not buying what they're selling with the Chargers as the favorite. Since 1999 (entire database) underdogs have gone 19-13 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (avg line 3) versus teams that started the season 0-3. sdql

 
I keep writing thoughtful posts and then accidentally delete the entire thing, I'm out of effort. 

cheering for Lowry, Storm, Ilonen, and Slattery.  All within striking distance and still value if you want to jump on.  Scoring conditions will get harder and Hatton due for regression.  

Working on a few matchups, trying to find a reliable weather forecast before I get too carried away.

 
British Masters Round 3

Lee Westwood -108 over Ian Poulter

Paul Dunne -112 over Graham McDowell

Haotong Li -115 over George Coetzee

 
leicester city & Bounremouth are both flirting around the relegation zone.
LC is on the road but they have played 4 of the big 6 in their 1st 6 matches.
LC +156
LC/Bourn o2.5 -127

 
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ALso that 10½ on Tech looks good. It's been 16 years since they lost a conference opener by > 10 points. Coming into this season they owned the most ATS wins out of any team in football in that spot during that time (now tied with Wyoming and S. Florida after last week). Also nine of L11 Oklahoma State road openers has gone under the total.

 
Newly promoted Hanover (sitting in 4th place!) has not lost yet and has only conceded 2 goals in 6 matches.

Monchengladbach is in 10th, more seasoned, at home and Hanovers biggest challenge to date.

Welcome to the bundesliga!

Monchengassalamualaikum -139

 
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