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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (10 Viewers)

This Iowa State game is wild, I'm going to lose a pile of money but kind of amazing to watch them hang on the road with a 3rd string QB

 
facook said:
So I've heard my good personal friend Gill Alexander say a few times, "You will never go broke fading Supercontest consensus picks.....there's another way to deal with consensus picks ....if you're cagey about it there is a way to actually make them work for you and I'm not necessarily talking about the entire pool of things."   I know that sounds vague, but he's said a few times that there is another way to analyze Supercontest picks besides just fading the top 5 picks to make money.  Anyone have any clue?  I've googled a bunch with no luck.  
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ChainsawU said:
wasn't Saints top five consensus versus bottom five consensus or something like that. have heard this method is a good early-season fade
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This has worked at least a couple of times this year, including Chain's Saints example here and Denver beating Oakland (which I did play) last week for anyone in these contests.

This week the situation applies to Detroit -2.5 getting the most plays in the Supercontest, with Carolina getting the fifth fewest.  Probably can't equate the two contests, but just for fun I looked at Supercontest Gold and Chargers +3.5 is in top 5 plays vs Giants who are in bottom 5.

(Week 1 Cincy was the #1 pick in SC and got crushed by Baltimore who was bottom 5.  So there's a loser.)

 
facook said:
7?  Wow.  I do one picking 5. It's brutally hard this week in my opinion.  The spreads in mine are not the same as Supercontest, they are a little different and set by CBS.  So far I have 49ers +1.5, Bills +3.5, Giants -3.5, Eagles -6.5, and Jets +1.5.  Of those I waver the most on NYG and Philly.
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Allen Eastman

Philadelphia (-6.5) over Arizona

I think that Philadelphia will get some revenge against the Cardinals in this one. The last time they played Arizona won 40-17 here in 2015. Arizona has won five of six meetings, and they are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. But I like the home team here. Arizona has not looked good this year. Their two losses were both by double-digits to Dallas and Detroit. Their two wins were both in overtime against San Francisco and Indianapolis. Arizona is going to continue to struggle against good teams. The Cardinals are 4-12 ATS against teams with a winning record and just 2-6 ATS on the road. The Eagles are on a 5-2 ATS run, and I think that they will win this one in a blowout here.

Welp, guess I'm off Philly.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
It's a month out but Yildrim +475 is a nice upset pick on the boxing front. There are actually two separate tournaments kicking off next week. Single elimination, 8 dudes in each (168 lbs. and 200 lbs), very good representation, talent-wise. Esp. the cruiser-weight one, which is loaded and has all four belt-holders. Yildrim over Eubank is a matchup in the super-middleweight tourney.

Sitting on another really good one, but need to wait for the line to pop up on this side of the pond.
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Boy couldn't have whiffed any harder here. Starched in the third.

 
Jaguars have Top 5 pass defense and 32nd rank run defense

Big Ben u 249.5 passing

AB u 89.5 recv

First TD James Conner +3000

 
M. Gordon U25.5 Re Yds
K. Allen U5.5
Eli O38.5 attempts
Engram O4 (2 units)
Tyrod U192.5
Lafell U27.5
Crowell U54.5
Hurns U51.5 (2 units)
D. Parker O65.5
Ajayi U74.5
Gore U55.5
C. Palmer O283.5
C. Palmer O24.5

 
Teaser RR by 3's  Cleveland +7.5; Pitt - 1.5;Carolina +7.5;Seattle +8;GB +8.5;Houston +8 ( 20 total bets..  :scared:  )

Straight bets on 

 Cincinnati Bengals -3 

 Cleveland Browns +1½ 

 Miami Dolphins -1

 Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles o44½

 Carolina Panthers/Detroit Lions o41½ 

GLTA
AB

 
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no one has led after the 1Q in Philly since December 2015 and opposing teams are 9-0 SU overall versus the Eagles since then when they do (3-13 SU when tied or trailing after the 1Q) I really thought the Cards were the team that was going to bust everyone's teasers and ML fave parlays today :no:

 
ChainsawU said:
Man I was ready to buy Texans +3 tonight. Hopefully it gets there by next Sunday.
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Come on baby keep moving. Yo if you are looking for a gift for your wife did you know that velvet is about to be real hot this winter on lingerie? It is. Trust me. I got my chick a velvet teddy and three pairs of various velvet underwears to surprise her with. She's going to be so happy. Victoria secretly helped me pick them out yesterday and I'm really looking forward to a little fashion show later boom good luck on your bet's.

 
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