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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)

Europe World Cup Qualifying

Serbia leads the group but needs to win vs lowly Georgia to make sure they don't get leapfrogged. Wales trails Serbia by 1 and needs at least a tie vs Ireland to ensure moving on as a second place team. Republic of Ireland is a point back of Wales and 2 of Serbia. They need to win. A draw does them little good since they would need help to move on. Wales is missing Bale. Ireland is missing 3 players including their captain whose leg was broken the last time they played Wales. Ireland does get back 2 midfielders who were suspended last match. Wales has not made the World Cup since 1958.

Serbia TT over 2.5 -130

Ireland +140 draw no bet

 
What a forgettable weekend.  I think I'm done betting overs on props.  Through 5 weeks, 40% of my NFL player props have been overs, but they have wiped out nearly 2/3 of my under winnings.  Maybe swirve or some of you others can do both well, but apparently, I need to focus on just unders.  :shrug:  

 
regularguy said:
What a forgettable weekend.  I think I'm done betting overs on props.  Through 5 weeks, 40% of my NFL player props have been overs, but they have wiped out nearly 2/3 of my under winnings.  Maybe swirve or some of you others can do both well, but apparently, I need to focus on just unders.  :shrug:  
Click to expand...
Swirve hates overs

 
regularguy said:
I know he had gotten away from them to some degree, and I was tailing them at a smaller bet size.  Now, I think they're just not worth the time and actually detrimental. 
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I wish I kept better records, I got demolished this weekend. I did have 2 overs in last nights game and both lost somehow in a game that went 30 points over.  After a glorious first 2 weeks, the last 3 have been losers.  The lines have been much better IMO with books doing a pretty good job of accounting for matchups.

 
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lumpy19 said:
I wish I kept better records, I got demolished this weekend. I did have 2 overs in last nights game and both lost somehow in a game that went 30 points over.  After a glorious first 2 weeks, the last 3 have been losers.  The lines have been much better IMO with books doing a pretty good job over accounting for matchups.
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I think it was a tough week too with a lot of tight games it can be hard to predict game flow... plus you had a few that flipped the script like Jags upsetting Pitt

 
lumpy19 said:
I wish I kept better records, I got demolished this weekend. I did have 2 overs in last nights game and both lost somehow in a game that went 30 points over.  After a glorious first 2 weeks, the last 3 have been losers.  The lines have been much better IMO with books doing a pretty good job over accounting for matchups.
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The accountant in me helps keep me disciplined on records.  I just went back and cleaned up my records some more to filter out some random props like player vs player.  It's even worse than I thought. :wall:

Unders - 66% +48 units
Overs - 46% -24 units

 
I've been thinking the same thing the last two weeks with regards to overs vs. unders. Hopkins hadn't had less than 7 receptions in any game this year before last night, Watson CLEARLY had been relying on him as a security blanket, and no chance. Could be Fuller's return changes the Hopkins security blanket angle. I may try a week or two sticking to unders.

Astros -120

 
regularguy said:
What a forgettable weekend.  I think I'm done betting overs on props.  Through 5 weeks, 40% of my NFL player props have been overs, but they have wiped out nearly 2/3 of my under winnings.  Maybe swirve or some of you others can do both well, but apparently, I need to focus on just unders.  :shrug:  
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I had about 40 overs and 15 unders this week in a break even/ made a few units week

I can beat overs in week 1 with the lines being off but after that i readjust and try to only play unders unless something really stands out (had kelce over last night)

I probably cost my money at some points by not forcing the overs on TNF as I capped every player except Evans as an over but I didnt make the bets, and ended up a 3-2.  However tracking my record over the past 6 or so years it was obvious that I have no advantage in overs and really only tie up potential money for potential bigger play in doing so.  At least in receiving, receptions and rushing.   I still have success in completions, passing and QB stuff but thats it.  But bottom line is I need a whol 1 or 1,5 difference to take an over on receptions now, and yards needs to be significant.  At times I have to get it through my head that I should stop betting overs and that happened again after week 3 was bad.

Week 4 I went back to only mainly unders and was 70-40 or something around there.

Even yesterday I had Cobb at 7 and pounded the over 4.5 and 5 and he gets 4 at halftime in what looks like a easy winner only to get 1 target and no catches the 2nd half.  It sucked and I lost a lot more than I should have on 1 play.

And yes this week was a very tough week to cap, all the lines were basically at 3, and not a lot of match-up history so game flow was tough.

Getting burnt by overtime and Bill O brien trying to score 20 points in 3 minutes sucks when you lose the unders in that situation (Hunt under 115.5 rush+rec last night) but in the end the unders are more advantageous at least by my records. 

 
I dont have the stats in front of my but receiving overs for me where around 14-23 overs this year or something after week 3 and receptions were in the 20-20 range which is just not profitable

 
Also typically the first few weeks are easy then week 3-6 or so become tough untiil you sort to figure more about tendencies of teams and how defenses/offenses really are.

 
Coming into the week for me

RB Overs

Receptions 5-6

Receiving 2-1

Rushing 1-0

RB unders

Rushing 31-15

Receiving 8-4

receptions 8-4

rush+rec 9-6

WR's Over

receiving 8-16

receptions 22-18

WR's under

receiving 48-25

receptions 45-25

 
I accidentally bet Under 6 tackles for Kuechly yesterday instead of the Over. Couldn't believe the line was set that low for him. Pretty costly mistake by me though.

 
Can't believe they started this game in Boston, hopefully get thru at least the first, need Morton to get out there.

 
lumpy19 said:
Can't believe they started this game in Boston, hopefully get thru at least the first, need Morton to get out there.
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How's it looking?

Eventual rain Out?

ETA. I had max bet porcello under and fear the weather is what may cost me

 
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General Malaise said:
129 teams listed by NCCA Stats.  Wanna know which team is ranked 127 in penalties this year?  Here's a hint - it's the same team that ranks 129th in penalty yards for the season.  

You can beat yourself against lesser schools.  You cannot afford those mistakes against good teams.  Oregon has yet to show the discipline to be a good team and to beat a good team.  Bet on them at your own risk.
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:lmao:

I was getting a beer when the game started.  Ducks ball, 1st and 10.  Back to back false start penalties to start the game.  I mean, you can't make this crap up.  10 penalties in the game.  Going to be a long season for Ducks' fans.

 
swirvenirvin said:
im confused I guess.. If you bet the under how could the weather cost you a win?
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Cause he was sucking and it was looking like an easy win. If they called it after 1 the bet would cancel.The rain would have cost me a win.....Although....now I may be hoping for rain to get this game called to avoid a loss

 
Oppo teams 8-8 SU + 7-9 ATS vs Bradford/Vikes:
Bradford passes ≤ 36: 0-8 SU + ATS
Bradford passes > 36: 8-0 SU + 7-1 ATS

 
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