*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (17 Viewers)

[Good Posting Judge]

Nick Emery left BYU, because he's not mentally focused, apparently because he got divorced this year.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

pacific time zone 30-14-1 ATS L45 MNF vs eastern time zone

I read somewhere that athletes bodies peak around their home sundown so this makes sense.

 

[comfortably numb]

Nice.  Looks like Goff at 16 so he needs to get benched too

Who hoo.

My NFL futures are trending towards the brutal side.  Needed this one.

Just need Bortles to get caught with a dead hooked 

 

[zander_s]

Whats with the Texans game? It shows up, goes off the board, comes back, rinse and repeat.

Gone from BOL again now.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Who hoo.

My NFL futures are trending towards the brutal side.  Needed this one.

Just need Bortles to get caught with a dead hooked 

bortles is tracking good as of right now

 

[swirvenirvin]

stanton out :(

 

[swirvenirvin]

Bovada for a while today had will Packers make playoffs at "even" -120 each side.  Could only bet $100 on it but still nice work odds guy who put that out there

 

[John Bender]

Can anyone recommend a similar set up to Kurts book?  I'm pretty reliable (never made a late payment in my life), happy to put down credit to bet with someone trusted.  PM me.  

 

[zander_s]

Can anyone recommend a similar set up to Kurts book?  I'm pretty reliable (never made a late payment in my life), happy to put down credit to bet with someone trusted.  PM me.  

Issue with Kurts book?

 

[Billy Bats]

Thought the Sixers/Lakers game was tonight only to wake up to realize a miss the easiest plays of the year with Embiid overs everything. Day late and dollars short.  

 

[swirvenirvin]

Issue with Kurts book?

seems to be a lot of that going around.  Lots of slow pays from them, but when you lose he is on you like flies on #### to get the money in on time

 

[lumpy19]

seems to be a lot of that going around.  Lots of slow pays from them, but when you lose he is on you like flies on #### to get the money in on time

If I were a customer there I'd be looking to minimize my exposure.

In the age of bitcoin it's easy to fund offshore and lots of books with prop limits over $20.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

seems to be a lot of that going around.  Lots of slow pays from them, but when you lose he is on you like flies on #### to get the money in on time

If I were a customer there I'd be looking to minimize my exposure.

Have a Hunt ROY ticket there

 

[lumpy19]

Have a Hunt ROY ticket there

Nice, when Kizer wins maybe you won't have to pay

 

[swirvenirvin]

Have a Hunt ROY ticket there

Hunt's not going to win anyways he sucks and hasn't done anything in weeks

 

[Tiger Fan]

Anyone still alive in a survivor?  I'm leaning Pitt over KC and LAC this week.  Pitts DVOA looks pretty good compared to the Titans.  Both on 4 game winning streaks, Titans beaten 4 bad teams...Pitt probably a tier above that.

If I knew Rivers was healthy, I'd make that play against Buff coming cross country with a rookie QB making his first start.

KC should destroy, but I don't pick road teams on principle.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

if anyone is feeling charitable my kids are doing a Jump Rope For Heart fundraiser for school.  each of them has a goal of $100 so they can get some monster trinket

http://www2.heart.org/goto/DrakeM

http://www2.heart.org/goto/DevinM

hopefully I can tell them their junk is courtesy of dads gambling friends

 

[swirvenirvin]

Am I missing bookmaker stuff today they usually have some props up by now

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Anyone still alive in a survivor?  I'm leaning Pitt over KC and LAC this week.  Pitts DVOA looks pretty good compared to the Titans.  Both on 4 game winning streaks, Titans beaten 4 bad teams...Pitt probably a tier above that.

If I knew Rivers was healthy, I'd make that play against Buff coming cross country with a rookie QB making his first start.

KC should destroy, but I don't pick road teams on principle.

I'm alive in a 2-strike league, and taking KC without a second thought. Also wanna keep LAC alive for W13 (CLE). 

HFA is nice, but it only goes so far.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

If I were a customer there I'd be looking to minimize my exposure.

In the age of bitcoin it's easy to fund offshore and lots of books with prop limits over $20.

getting rid of him was the best thing I ever did. Place is jinxed, and a HUGE pain in the ### to boot.

 

[lumpy19]

Am I missing bookmaker stuff today they usually have some props up by now

Looks like you've been cut.

Just kidding, they haven't posted yet.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Looks like you've been cut.

Just kidding, they haven't posted yet.

thanks jerk.. also they usually have game props up always wondering if they gonna post at all

 

[lumpy19]

ask and ye shall receive

 

[lumpy19]

BOL opens lines with $500 limits, looks like they're confident in their lines

 

[Frostillicus]

DAY ACTION!!

Old Dominion +4

Boise St -2.5

Clemson -12

 

[lumpy19]

Davis o3.5 -114

Mariota o18.5 -143

Rishard o3.5 +100(2x)

Big ben u276.5 -115

Decker u30.5 -115

Juju u4.5 -145

Juju u62.5 -130

Delanie u52.5 rec -125

Henry u42.5 -145

 

[gussy]

DeMarco U46.5 (-115)

 

[gussy]

Buffalo -19 1/2

 

[ChainsawU]

Texans/Raiders went over the total at the Azteca Stadium last season. It's a soccer stadium too.

That's a high total in Mexico. Soccer stadium. I think I'm plugging in James White over Demarco in la fantasía.

 

[zander_s]

If I were a customer there I'd be looking to minimize my exposure.

In the age of bitcoin it's easy to fund offshore and lots of books with prop limits over $20.

Time to fund some other shops

 

[got_nugs]

MIKE STANTON YA'LL!

 

[swirvenirvin]

If I were a customer there I'd be looking to minimize my exposure.

In the age of bitcoin it's easy to fund offshore and lots of books with prop limits over $20.

Futures are nice not tying up money

 

[ChainsawU]

During the L4 seasons, with the exception of road games versus Adam Gase and Doug Pederson last season, Tomlin has pretty much kicked the #### out of opposing coaches that he's facing for the first time, especially at home sdql. Not sure how The Beau will factor into that equation tonight, though. Can't choose a side.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Rishard Matthews (TEN) Total Receiving Yards
[99019] TOTAL o49½-115 

Ryan Succop (TEN) Total Points
[99035] TOTAL o6½-150 

Le'Veon Bell (PIT) Total Rushing Yards
[99060] TOTAL u91½-110 

This is what I came up with tonight from reading Silva    

GLTA
AB
 

 

[Badm]

Davis o3.5 -114

Mariota o18.5 -143

Rishard o3.5 +100(2x)

Big ben u276.5 -115

Decker u30.5 -115

Juju u4.5 -145

Juju u62.5 -130

Delanie u52.5 rec -125

Henry u42.5 -145

What’s up with the juju hate?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

What’s up with the juju hate?

Hoo boy.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Any good NCAAB databases that are sortable and aligned with this thread's interests? Specifically just looking for how often the total goes over when a 20+ point favorite covers. TIA.

 

[comfortably numb]

Titans 1Q o0.5 -160

 

[Clorox]

Back to the well again with Bryant o2.5 rec -130, o36.5 rec yd +110, and first TD +1200.  Also played Shazier o6.5 tackles -165. Just hunches and only played them for $10-20 each. 

 

[lumpy19]

Played bell +500 first td

 

[lumpy19]

What’s up with the juju hate?

I think brown and bell get the love tonight.

 

[ChainsawU]

how often the total goes over when a 20+ point favorite covers

Only about 45% over the long term since 2006. Broken down by season:

season	OU	(avg margin, pct)
2017 	9-9-0	(4.14, 50.0%)
2016 	45-59-0	(-2.22, 43.3%)
2015 	37-43-0	(-1.55, 46.2%)
2014 	31-46-1	(-2.74, 40.3%)
2013 	19-33-0	(-6.95, 36.5%)
2012 	17-20-0	(-1.39, 45.9%)
2011 	39-32-1	(-0.99, 54.9%)
2010 	33-41-2	(-1.95, 44.6%)
2009 	35-43-1	(-0.46, 44.9%)
2008 	45-47-1	(-0.24, 48.9%)
2007 	33-46-3	(-1.74, 41.8%)
2006 	30-38-1	(-2.88, 44.1%)

 

[Clorox]

Played bell +500 first td

Well that was quick, all AB that drive. I don’t think Bryant even got on the field. 

 

[Big League Chew]

Buff ball st o24.5 2H

 

[Tiger Fan]

I'm alive in a 2-strike league, and taking KC without a second thought. Also wanna keep LAC alive for W13 (CLE). 

HFA is nice, but it only goes so far.

Ended up rolling with KC.  Reid's post bye game record sold me.

 

[TheGooRoo]

Rishard Matthews (TEN) Total Receiving Yards
[99019] TOTAL o49½-115 

Ryan Succop (TEN) Total Points
[99035] TOTAL o6½-150 

Le'Veon Bell (PIT) Total Rushing Yards
[99060] TOTAL u91½-110 

This is what I came up with tonight from reading Silva    

GLTA
AB
 

Silva said 3 pts for Succop

 

[got_nugs]

look at this dude with the grayson avi

 

[swirvenirvin]

Nice game plan here by Pitt.  Come out in fire passing the ball, then run the ball with Connor and next series make more stupid plays with deep bombs downfield instead of hitting the wide open guys.

 

[swirvenirvin]

dink dunk dink dunk move ball.. Stupid Ben chuck it down field incomplete , incomplete 30 second drive.. 

 

[Angry Beavers]

Silva said 3 pts for Succop

But its a kick funnel defense!!