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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (13 Viewers)

you know when I was growing up we used to be able to win 69 percent of our bets. it was a better time thermostats used to be set at 69 you used to be able to get a girl pregnant with a 69 cent drink from the drive thru

 
got beat down yesterday. maybe I play too many games 5-8

I was thinking how often do you guys hedge a loss so you are only paying the juice? when do you know when to throw in the towel.

I was thinking about it last night looking at the live line pounding the refresh button. im going to write a script to automatically hit a specific number for me instead of sitting there myself pounding f5

 
So I would normally try to sell these at work.  But since I am not working the next few weeks I figured I'd reach out to you guys to see if anyone wanted to gamble and also help my son's baseball team. 

They are squares for the national championship game.  $20 per sqaure payout is $250.  All profits go to help pay for baseball ####.

Attached is the available squares i have

https://flic.kr/p/22EiFVZ

Thanks to anyone who helps I truly appreciate it.  Just pm/text me what number you want.

Eta 8, 53, 30, 86, 19 are sold

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Some notes from my smart Vegas buddy who used to rate and did some scouting

.       SHOP for the best over-under and Prop #’s.  They differ wildly in bowl games, even in respect to team totals.  Was told by Mike there was 2.5/3 point difference in two of ten team totals.  Shop!

b.      Don’t forget to check injuries/suspensions.  They happen early and often   My fault for not knowing Studstill was playing, but family time won out.

c.       Kick/Punt returns and pick 6’s are more prevalent.  With the special teams prop varying from +110 to as high as +230 on some games, action should be strongly considered.  This I auto did.  +190, +150, +150 hit and we are 3-2 in games 1-5.

d.      Even run teams pass more in bowl games.  Check things like team motivation, site of game, etc. for edges.

e.      Interim coaches have lately fared poorly as favorites. Oregon's interim the favorite and thanks!

f.        Rush/point doubles continue to win  Technically 1-1, win with North Texas, loss with Ark St, but there was the Stockstill factor.

g.       Power Play dogs and money line dogs are solid plays.  Last year double digit money line dogs excelled. Four outright dogs so far, ML dogs are moneymakers, so if you blindly did it you are way up.

h.      Streaking into the bowl season has been a negative except for in playoff games.  Conversely, teams off multiple (4 or more) ATS losses are 25-12 ats (Baylor last year). 

i.         This year’s study hall: Halftime Bowl Strategy:  On 12/20 we will have a roundtable.  Data collection from the last seven years should be included.

 
Since 2010 Cavs/Bucks 21-8-1 O/U. Best divisional-matchup over % in the NBA. It's 12-2-1 O/U at Milwaukee and 11-1 O/U when LeBron logs more than 30 minutes.

Cavs/Bucks o215 -117

 
Florida Atlantic is laying more points than any bowl team since the 1970s; possibly more than any bowl team in NCAA Football history.

 
Akron's team total is lined 21½. Since 1980, bowl teams catching 16 or more have gone 6-9 SU and 10-5 ATS (6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS scoring over 21 points). So if you wanted to take Akron's team total to go over, you might as well play them to win SU since it pays more.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Some notes from my smart Vegas buddy who used to rate and did some scouting

.       SHOP for the best over-under and Prop #’s.  They differ wildly in bowl games, even in respect to team totals.  Was told by Mike there was 2.5/3 point difference in two of ten team totals.  Shop!

b.      Don’t forget to check injuries/suspensions.  They happen early and often   My fault for not knowing Studstill was playing, but family time won out.

c.       Kick/Punt returns and pick 6’s are more prevalent.  With the special teams prop varying from +110 to as high as +230 on some games, action should be strongly considered.  This I auto did.  +190, +150, +150 hit and we are 3-2 in games 1-5.

d.      Even run teams pass more in bowl games.  Check things like team motivation, site of game, etc. for edges.

e.      Interim coaches have lately fared poorly as favorites. Oregon's interim the favorite and thanks!

f.        Rush/point doubles continue to win  Technically 1-1, win with North Texas, loss with Ark St, but there was the Stockstill factor.

g.       Power Play dogs and money line dogs are solid plays.  Last year double digit money line dogs excelled. Four outright dogs so far, ML dogs are moneymakers, so if you blindly did it you are way up.

h.      Streaking into the bowl season has been a negative except for in playoff games.  Conversely, teams off multiple (4 or more) ATS losses are 25-12 ats (Baylor last year). 

i.         This year’s study hall: Halftime Bowl Strategy:  On 12/20 we will have a roundtable.  Data collection from the last seven years should be included.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

 
All aboard the lane train!!!!

Lane Kiffin, who has resurrected Florida Atlantic's football program in just one season, has agreed to a new 10-year deal with the Owls.

"This is further proof of FAU's unbridled ambition," FAU president John Kelly told ESPN on Tuesday.

Florida Atlantic (10-3) faces Akron on Tuesday night in the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl and has won nine straight games, capturing the Conference USA championship earlier this month.

 
ChainsawU said:
Akron's team total is lined 21½. Since 1980, bowl teams catching 16 or more have gone 6-9 SU and 10-5 ATS (6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS scoring over 21 points). So if you wanted to take Akron's team total to go over, you might as well play them to win SU since it pays more.
Click to expand...
I make the game 33.5..... I think FAU rolls.

 
Can't argue. I think Kiffin and them have a floor of about 41, but Akron max out at 20. I like the way it's lined with them coming off the championship loss, plus they're 16-4 to the under L20, tied with Texas for the most unders in the NCAA in their L20 games.

Akron/FAU u65½ -102
Akron Under 21½ -110

 
facook said:
What does this mean?
Click to expand...
Rush-Point doubles: When in a bowl game a team is both the pick via the seasonal rushing data (I adjust for sacks), as well as with compensated points for/against.  There can be a strength of schedule difference that has to be taken into account, but in general, when a team has the edge via the spread as a rush/point double it is nicely profitable.  

Upcoming rush/point doubles: USF, App St, NIU (schedule disparity), Kansas State, So Miss (schedule disparity), possibly Iowa depending upon where spread lands.  That's the upcoming games.  

By the way, the e-mail I sent to everyone was wrong about 1-1 rush point doubles.  It was Troy and Marshall who had the doubles, so the correct ATS figure is 2-0!  The others had mixed data or was right on the spread.  

 
swirvenirvin said:
Rush-Point doubles: When in a bowl game a team is both the pick via the seasonal rushing data (I adjust for sacks), as well as with compensated points for/against.  There can be a strength of schedule difference that has to be taken into account, but in general, when a team has the edge via the spread as a rush/point double it is nicely profitable.  

Upcoming rush/point doubles: USF, App St, NIU (schedule disparity), Kansas State, So Miss (schedule disparity), possibly Iowa depending upon where spread lands.  That's the upcoming games.  

By the way, the e-mail I sent to everyone was wrong about 1-1 rush point doubles.  It was Troy and Marshall who had the doubles, so the correct ATS figure is 2-0!  The others had mixed data or was right on the spread.  
Click to expand...
Wow I am dumb. I still don’t understand that first paragraph. I suppose seasonal rush is ypa? No clue what the compensated points means.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Rush-Point doubles: When in a bowl game a team is both the pick via the seasonal rushing data (I adjust for sacks), as well as with compensated points for/against.  There can be a strength of schedule difference that has to be taken into account, but in general, when a team has the edge via the spread as a rush/point double it is nicely profitable.  

Upcoming rush/point doubles: USF, App St, NIU (schedule disparity), Kansas State, So Miss (schedule disparity), possibly Iowa depending upon where spread lands.  That's the upcoming games.  

By the way, the e-mail I sent to everyone was wrong about 1-1 rush point doubles.  It was Troy and Marshall who had the doubles, so the correct ATS figure is 2-0!  The others had mixed data or was right on the spread.  
Click to expand...
I’m not on that email list.  :kicksrock:

 
three games in four days with a twist

  • 3rd game in four days
  • laying less than 4 points
  • on a total of 210 or more
  • opponent 2 or more days rest
15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS 116±6 ppg L5 seasons sdql

Cavaliers -118
Cavaliers o108 -110

 
swirvenirvin said:
guy i talk with, met through props.  We email each other weekly on stuff that interests us, and share cheatsheets notes etc.

He was a scout for a while for NFL, used to be help out with some drafts for some teams, now he writes for a few sites/magazine
Click to expand...
My best "source" is a stoner buddy who leads our local supercontest because he only bets favorites.  :rolleyes:

I mean, other than you guys of course.

 
anyone have a good recommendation for a website to check scores/boxes? ESPN has gotten to the point where it's unusable.
Nothing loads because of all of their garbage ads. I like Foxsports for NFL, but it's not a very good setup for CBB

 
gussy said:
anyone have a good recommendation for a website to check scores/boxes? ESPN has gotten to the point where it's unusable.
Nothing loads because of all of their garbage ads. I like Foxsports for NFL, but it's not a very good setup for CBB
Click to expand...
College only

I actually prefer the NCAA site for college sports.

Generally though just use ESPN app on my phone.

 
Shockers 2H -17

Again, technically not a system play since original spread was larger than 25, I would have played this regardless.

 
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