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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

I've been reading these public speaking books. And they say you will find exceptional decorum in places where the consequences of indecorous behavior are the most dire, such as pick-up basketball games in remote parts of Afghanistan (Christian missionaries introduced it there a long time ago). It may be the politest game on earth as personal fouls are virtually unheard of, because the touching of another man could lead to a blood feud.

 
gussy said:
anyone have a good recommendation for a website to check scores/boxes? ESPN has gotten to the point where it's unusable.
Nothing loads because of all of their garbage ads. I like Foxsports for NFL, but it's not a very good setup for CBB
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That Action App that Stuckey is pushing seems to be easier to navigate than even the Score App, though I always did like the in-game push notifications on the Score App, not sure if Stucks has that or not.

 
got_nugs said:
That Action App that Stuckey is pushing seems to be easier to navigate than even the Score App, though I always did like the in-game push notifications on the Score App, not sure if Stucks has that or not.
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Been using Action App.  Very good for gambling purposes.  It has everything Score has and better.  You enter what play you made, and the notification even tells you if you're winning or not. For totals, it totals out the pace and gives you a "green" circle if you're on pace and a "red" circle if you're not.

 
got_nugs said:
That Action App that Stuckey is pushing seems to be easier to navigate than even the Score App, though I always did like the in-game push notifications on the Score App, not sure if Stucks has that or not.
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I'm looking for somewhere that I can quickly check box scores on NCAA BB games at HT. I don't think his app has boxscores. I'm not super familiar with it, I just use it to follow
a few pickers and see how fantastic Stuck is doing.............................spoiler alert.........................he's not

 
gussy said:
I'm looking for somewhere that I can quickly check box scores on NCAA BB games at HT. I don't think his app has boxscores. I'm not super familiar with it, I just use it to follow
a few pickers and see how fantastic Stuck is doing.............................spoiler alert.........................he's not
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I think I should go to hell for all of the enjoyment I get out of those dudes losing on twitter.  Stuck is lower on my hate poll than others since he's not trying to charge for his losers.  A day doesn't go by that I won't check in on twattydimes to see if he's locked his account or not.  

 
got_nugs said:
I think I should go to hell for all of the enjoyment I get out of those dudes losing on twitter.  Stuck is lower on my hate poll than others since he's not trying to charge for his losers.  A day doesn't go by that I won't check in on twattydimes to see if he's locked his account or not.  
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Are you following this Ben kid at mademybookiecry? What a train wreck

 
gussy said:
Are you following this Ben kid at mademybookiecry? What a train wreck
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*Getting old alert* I have 2 different twitter accounts b/c I can't remember the log in for the one on my phone and can't figure out how to retrieve it.  I thought I was following him but apparently not on my desktop.  Thanks for the heads up...looks like I have some reading to do tonight!

 
SFA winner. CBB 2H system 5-1 last 6, who knows if that means anything or not. NFL interdivision system sitting right at 60% since
week 9. CFB system up 1.5 units so far, although one of those games I evidently got a favorable line that some didn't.

 
swirvenirvin said:
guy i talk with, met through props.  We email each other weekly on stuff that interests us, and share cheatsheets notes etc.

He was a scout for a while for NFL, used to be help out with some drafts for some teams, now he writes for a few sites/magazine
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He go to Disney at all?

 
UTSA FH +6.5

Prime letdown spot for Nebraska after expending a ton of energy Saturday vs. Kansas to lose by a point. This
years Husker squad has a lot more talent than in past years, but this is the type of game that Miles teams have
a tendency to lose. I pray I'm wrong there, and I'm hoping the talent will overcome the trend. Students all gone
on break, The Vault will be LESS than packed tonight.

 
skip holtz neutral site when his team averages greater than 28 points per game sdql

Louisiana Tech +155
Louisiana Tech o33½ -120
Louisiana Tech 1Q -3 +215
Louisiana Tech 1Q o6½ -175

 
got_nugs said:
*Getting old alert* I have 2 different twitter accounts b/c I can't remember the log in for the one on my phone and can't figure out how to retrieve it.  I thought I was following him but apparently not on my desktop.  Thanks for the heads up...looks like I have some reading to do tonight!
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Reminds of this Wine Thief guy

 
Tiger Fan said:
Here's a nice one that doesn't get effected by public $ or line movement.....IIRC, there's been a "thread rule" to bet the overs on December Bowl games and then bet the unders in January games.  Thought being that the # of bowls saturated the quality of the teams and a lot of bad teams play, leading to sloppier defense, etc.  So i tested it.  

Blatantly playing all overs in December bowls yields a -4.8% ROI.  Not Good, but that's ok....As clearly the "better teams" play closer to the end of December, I looked to see it it would let me filter for certain dates in December, but it wouldn't, so I had to think of another way.  I decided to add the filter for teams that have winning %s less than 65% (basically a 7-4 team or worse) and that came out with a 16.3% ROI, which is obviously much better...and seems to make sense.  

This yields about 13 plays for this bowl season, of which you can expect about 8 of those to win.  Now, as explained above, if you believe all the #s will hold true, then you need to play them all in order to get the 8 projected wins....so it's easy to lose $ in the short term due to variance and whatnot.

I tried to think of some other filters to add that wouldn't just be noise in the system, but nothing came to mind.

ETA: There was no data supporting the unders in January Theory
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2-1 so far.  Over tonight!

 
gussy said:
UTSA FH +6.5

Prime letdown spot for Nebraska after expending a ton of energy Saturday vs. Kansas to lose by a point. This
years Husker squad has a lot more talent than in past years, but this is the type of game that Miles teams have
a tendency to lose. I pray I'm wrong there, and I'm hoping the talent will overcome the trend. Students all gone
on break, The Vault will be LESS than packed tonight.
Click to expand...
In.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Some notes from my smart Vegas buddy who used to rate and did some scouting

c.       Kick/Punt returns and pick 6’s are more prevalent.  With the special teams prop varying from +110 to as high as +230 on some games, action should be strongly considered.  This I auto did.  +190, +150, +150 hit and we are 3-2 in games 1-5.
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1-1 since I started playing these. Thanks for this.

 
swirvenirvin said:
i should probably start as well.. what else did that guy write
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swirvenirvin said:
Some notes from my smart Vegas buddy who used to rate and did some scouting

.       SHOP for the best over-under and Prop #’s.  They differ wildly in bowl games, even in respect to team totals.  Was told by Mike there was 2.5/3 point difference in two of ten team totals.  Shop!

b.      Don’t forget to check injuries/suspensions.  They happen early and often   My fault for not knowing Studstill was playing, but family time won out.

c.       Kick/Punt returns and pick 6’s are more prevalent.  With the special teams prop varying from +110 to as high as +230 on some games, action should be strongly considered.  This I auto did.  +190, +150, +150 hit and we are 3-2 in games 1-5.

d.      Even run teams pass more in bowl games.  Check things like team motivation, site of game, etc. for edges.

e.      Interim coaches have lately fared poorly as favorites. Oregon's interim the favorite and thanks!

f.        Rush/point doubles continue to win  Technically 1-1, win with North Texas, loss with Ark St, but there was the Stockstill factor.

g.       Power Play dogs and money line dogs are solid plays.  Last year double digit money line dogs excelled. Four outright dogs so far, ML dogs are moneymakers, so if you blindly did it you are way up.

h.      Streaking into the bowl season has been a negative except for in playoff games.  Conversely, teams off multiple (4 or more) ATS losses are 25-12 ats (Baylor last year). 

i.         This year’s study hall: Halftime Bowl Strategy:  On 12/20 we will have a roundtable.  Data collection from the last seven years should be included.
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I love that you are going to be drunk for 16 straight days.  Right behind you.

 
Welp....things look good for LaTech (cue jinx loss), over 72 (repeat jinx loss), already won yes d/st td.  Lost 1h under 36.  Playing this stupid system 2nd half under 33 against all instincts.  Sigh.

 
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