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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (12 Viewers)

fish rush

The Dolphins seem to have found a diamond in the rough in Kenyan Drake. Since the trade of Jay Ajayi, the offense has been far more effective as a unit, and the most significant contributor to that dramatic improvement has been Drake. In his four starts this season, Drake is averaging 123.5 total yards. Also in the wake of the injury to Damien Williams, Drake has become the Dolphins' feature back, averaging 148 total yards per game. In his three games in that role, Drake has gained 312 rushing yards on 54 carries (4.8 yards-per-carry) and made 15 catches for 134 yards. He's scored three of his four touchdowns in those contests. That kind of production would bode well for the Dolphins in Kansas City. The Chiefs don't have an elite defense, although they are better at Arrowhead Stadium than on the road. Kansas City has surrendered the third-most rushing touchdowns this season (15), allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game (122.9) and the eighth most yards per carry (4.3).
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KC 27th in rushing yards allowed, 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed, 25th in yards per carry allowed, 24th in rushing attempts allowed.

Dolphins 6-8 SU and 5-7-2 ATS:
21 or fewer rush attempts: 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS
25 or more rush attempts: 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS

Dolphins +420

 
That’s interesting. I was just having a conversation with one of the worst gamblers in this entire board (@good posting judge) about how I’m hitting way too high a percentage and where to go from here. He wasn’t very helpful because he said he’s never even broken 40% winners much less approached this level of success but it was good to hear from a gambler who I respect and whose wife I slept with. 

 
Frostillicus said:
That’s interesting. I was just having a conversation with one of the worst gamblers in this entire board (@good posting judge) about how I’m hitting way too high a percentage and where to go from here. He wasn’t very helpful because he said he’s never even broken 40% winners much less approached this level of success but it was good to hear from a gambler who I respect and whose wife I slept with. 
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"I just want a man who has a very strong opinion about the Illinois/Penn State game next Wednesday."

 
heads up.  My Bookie hit me with 3 double bets yesterday (of course, all of them lost).  After I hit confirm, it made it look like the lines changed and i hit confirm again.  I guess I take some of the blame for not checking open bets right away....but still, super shady.

 
Tiger Fan said:
heads up.  My Bookie hit me with 3 double bets yesterday (of course, all of them lost).  After I hit confirm, it made it look like the lines changed and i hit confirm again.  I guess I take some of the blame for not checking open bets right away....but still, super shady.
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even if you check open bets right away they don't always show up

 
Tiger Fan said:
and i can't challenge them, b/c they'll likely flag me for the props.  ####ers.  if i ever get to Costa Rica......
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Keep 50/50 and they don't seem to care, i'm at about 17k profit and haven't heard a peep from them since playing sides to keep 50/50 action

 
Tiger Fan said:
heads up.  My Bookie hit me with 3 double bets yesterday (of course, all of them lost).  After I hit confirm, it made it look like the lines changed and i hit confirm again.  I guess I take some of the blame for not checking open bets right away....but still, super shady.
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Speaking of My Bookie, are you guys able to log in there currently?

edit:  nevermind, logged in now

 
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In the seven games where Sean Lee played the majority of the contest, the Cowboys give up an average of 16.9 points and that number is skewed by 42 points the Cowboys gave up to the Denver Broncos in a Week 2 misstep. In the six games that he’s either missed entirely or the majority of, the Cowboys gave up an average of 29.3 points. In other words, having him on the field is worth about 12.4 points per game.
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Opposing teams 6-8 SU and 6-7-1 ATS v DAL:
Scoring 19 or less: 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS
Scoring 27 or more: 6-0 SU and ATS

without Sean Lee: 5-1 SU + ATS
with Sean Lee: 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS

Broncos beat Cowboys W2 42-17 with Lee in the game. But in the other seven games opposing teams scored 3,10,10,17,17,17,19

 
David Payne Purdum‏Verified account @DavidPurdum

Biggest needs at this point for @CaesarsPalace: Jets, Titans and 49ers

Biggest needs for @LVSuperBook at this point: Falcons, Washington and Arizona, per @golfodds.

I  like Cincinnati Bengals +3½ (-115)
 New York Jets +7 (-110)
 Tennessee Titans +6 (-110)
 Cleveland Browns +6 (-110)
 Denver Broncos +3 (-110)
 Buffalo Bills +11 (-110

and larger on the 3 division unders:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers u47½ (-110)

 Atlanta Falcons/New Orleans Saints u52½ (-110)

 Buffalo Bills/New England Patriots u47½ (-110)

GLTA
AB

 
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i gave a street urchin a ten dollar bill this morning and he literally skipped across the street. traffic was really slow there was hardly anyone downtown so he wasn't in any danger

 
The Ref said:
Let's all be honest for a second. I'd rather bone the Bassett hound in the "turn the lights off" NFL sweater commercial.
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I'll turn off the lights and light a candle, girl. And empathize with you that your entire family wears Kelce jerseys to the dinner table. Everything's gonna be okay, baby. Pretend I'm nineteen and call me Joe Montana.

 
http://i65.tinypic.com/2zrq7py.png

3-0, $45 to $487.08 double-down, all plus money: Christmas Eve mini-ripper.

Q1 - Lions ML, +140
2H - Bears / Browns U16.5, +105
Paul Richardson U3.5 receptions, +120

Here's something I think can help you guys as gamblers. You can't be afraid of plus money. You need to learn to embrace plus money, especially on player props. On player props, there is less room for the line to move so the lines become juicier instead of moving.

Everytime you bet a chalk line and you lose, someone else is making plus money. When you seek plus money, you can actually WIN MORE by betting less games. The goal in gambling is to take as little action as possible. The more action you take, the more likely you are to lose.

I don't get juiced. I juice them.

:banned:

 
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That was a good one when they asked how you predicted props so well and you said, "I only have to predict one person at a time."

 
ChainsawU said:
looking back now, yeah. if you google chunks of his stuff it's other peoples' daily fantasy writeups copied and pasted
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But he did more than just repeat things over and over and over. He catapulted his messages by leaving logic out of them. The result was what the poet Robert Frost called the "sound of sense" - the meaning you intuit from hearing people speak in the next room. You pick up the sense from the speakers' rhythms and tone, and from an occasional emphasized word.

Heinrichs, Jay. Thank You for Arguing, Third Edition (pp. 253-254). Crown/Archetype. Kindle Edition.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
http://i65.tinypic.com/2zrq7py.png

3-0, $45 to $487.08 double-down, all plus money: Christmas Eve mini-ripper.

Q1 - Lions ML, +140
2H - Bears / Browns U26.5, +105
Paul Richardson U3.5 receptions, +120

Here's something I think can help you guys as gamblers. You can't be afraid of plus money. You need to learn to embrace plus money, especially on player props. On player props, there is less room for the line to move so the lines become juicier instead of moving.

Everytime you bet a chalk line and you lose, someone else is making plus money. When you seek plus money, you can actually WIN MORE by betting less games. The goal in gambling is to take as little action as possible. The more action you take, the more likely you are to lose.

I don't get juiced. I juice them.

:banned:
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Dear God, shut the #### up

 
I mean this little cuck has been back for less than a day and he's already giving himself away. Can't help himself. Little ##### has exactly 0 creep to him.  

 
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