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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (12 Viewers)

i took a class on speaking. public speaking. just got done w/ it. greek concepts I never realized & subsequently read a book called thank you for arguing. if you want some serious tools to use that you can cultivate. it only took me three months to realize I am a guppy in this. but I've also already convinced a woman to give something she hasn't gave by using it. not lying and by rookie I mean you.

 
:lmao: Tweety dug out with Sparty ML as his Bowl Game of the Year.

You might be saying to yourself, "Wait, I saw a Twitter post posted here with his Bowl Game of the Year as VT +6.5." You wouldn't be wrong. VT was for Regular Members, Sparty was for VIP clients. Tweety has regular and VIP clients, of which he has 300+ and 49, respectively.

:mellow:

 
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mquinnjr said:
:lmao: Tweety dug out with Sparty ML as his Bowl Game of the Year.

You might be saying to yourself, "Wait, I saw a Twitter post posted here with his Bowl Game of the Year as VT +6.5." You wouldn't be wrong. VT was for Regular Members, Sparty was for VIP clients. Tweety has regular and VIP clients, of which he has 300+ and 49, respectively.

:mellow:
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Tweety is garbage and so is the entire Twitter scene. I hit 12 out of 13 bets and nobody blinked an eye.

Touting is more about gimmicks than success. #### that noise.

 
From an advanced stats perspective, the Ohio State rush offense immediately stands out against the USC defensive front:

Ohio State Offense USC Defense

Rushing Success Rate 1st 91st

Opportunity Rate 3rd 104th

Stuff Rate 2nd 112th

Although Ohio State should run with ease on USC, they will still feature a quick-strike offense, ranking 15th in adjusted pace and 93rd in time of possession. USC will not have the same kind of success running the ball. In previous CW9 betting preview articles in which we sided with USC, we focused on Ronald Jones II moving the chains and eating clock. The Trojans will not have that luxury on offense in this matchup, with Ohio State ranking first in Rush S&P+ Defense, first in opportunity rate and 15th in stuff rate. Those metrics suggest Ronald Jones II will have his toughest day of the entire season, even in the Texas native’s homecoming.

USC defeated Khalil Tate and Bryce Love (twice) by utilizing an effective ground attack to keep both explosive players off of the field. However, Ronald Jones II couldn’t carry the load when the Trojans faced the excellent rush defenses of Washington State and Notre Dame. As a result, Sam Darnold made critical mistakes through the air on a few forced throws. I expect more of the same against the Buckeyes.

In regards to the total, the over should get strong consideration here. Ohio State ranks 15th in the nation in adjusted pace, and Darnold will have to throw on standard downs if the running game gets neutralized like I anticipate. USC ranks 130th (last in the country) in passing downs run rate at 24.6 percent, while Ohio State ranks 122nd at 27.9 percent. In other words, both teams rarely ever run the ball on passing downs, which will help the over. If the fast pace and the pass tendencies don’t convince you to invest in the over, then consider both Ohio State and USC rank in the bottom 10 in penalty yards, 121st and 122nd, respectively. This game has shootout written all over it.

Ultimately, Ohio State’s defense will force USC’s offense into a one-dimensional passing attack, leading to a Buckeye victory in the Cotton Bowl.

 
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Tiger Fan said:
Here's a nice one that doesn't get effected by public $ or line movement.....IIRC, there's been a "thread rule" to bet the overs on December Bowl games and then bet the unders in January games.  Thought being that the # of bowls saturated the quality of the teams and a lot of bad teams play, leading to sloppier defense, etc.  So i tested it.  

Blatantly playing all overs in December bowls yields a -4.8% ROI.  Not Good, but that's ok....As clearly the "better teams" play closer to the end of December, I looked to see it it would let me filter for certain dates in December, but it wouldn't, so I had to think of another way.  I decided to add the filter for teams that have winning %s less than 65% (basically a 7-4 team or worse) and that came out with a 16.3% ROI, which is obviously much better...and seems to make sense.  

This yields about 13 plays for this bowl season, of which you can expect about 8 of those to win.  Now, as explained above, if you believe all the #s will hold true, then you need to play them all in order to get the 8 projected wins....so it's easy to lose $ in the short term due to variance and whatnot.

I tried to think of some other filters to add that wouldn't just be noise in the system, but nothing came to mind.

ETA: There was no data supporting the unders in January Theory
Click to expand...
This is 6-5 so far this season.  Last two are today:

A&M/WF over and NMS/USU over

 
swirvenirvin said:
From an advanced stats perspective, the Ohio State rush offense immediately stands out against the USC defensive front:

Ohio State Offense USC Defense

Rushing Success Rate 1st 91st

Opportunity Rate 3rd 104th

Stuff Rate 2nd 112th

Although Ohio State should run with ease on USC, they will still feature a quick-strike offense, ranking 15th in adjusted pace and 93rd in time of possession. USC will not have the same kind of success running the ball. In previous CW9 betting preview articles in which we sided with USC, we focused on Ronald Jones II moving the chains and eating clock. The Trojans will not have that luxury on offense in this matchup, with Ohio State ranking first in Rush S&P+ Defense, first in opportunity rate and 15th in stuff rate. Those metrics suggest Ronald Jones II will have his toughest day of the entire season, even in the Texas native’s homecoming.

USC defeated Khalil Tate and Bryce Love (twice) by utilizing an effective ground attack to keep both explosive players off of the field. However, Ronald Jones II couldn’t carry the load when the Trojans faced the excellent rush defenses of Washington State and Notre Dame. As a result, Sam Darnold made critical mistakes through the air on a few forced throws. I expect more of the same against the Buckeyes.

In regards to the total, the over should get strong consideration here. Ohio State ranks 15th in the nation in adjusted pace, and Darnold will have to throw on standard downs if the running game gets neutralized like I anticipate. USC ranks 130th (last in the country) in passing downs run rate at 24.6 percent, while Ohio State ranks 122nd at 27.9 percent. In other words, both teams rarely ever run the ball on passing downs, which will help the over. If the fast pace and the pass tendencies don’t convince you to invest in the over, then consider both Ohio State and USC rank in the bottom 10 in penalty yards, 121st and 122nd, respectively. This game has shootout written all over it.

Ultimately, Ohio State’s defense will force USC’s offense into a one-dimensional passing attack, leading to a Buckeye victory in the Cotton Bowl.
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Breaking the don't do it glass covering the button on college teasers. tOSU -2 and O58.5 for 1U.

 
swirvenirvin said:
i was looking at more for prop purposes.. but gambling!
Click to expand...
Yeah this bowl season has been a gift so far, and what the heck - gambling.

Side note, with only one game I can see where the winner didn't cover the spread, this can't be good for the books. Coupled with all of the MLB Astros futures hammering them, GOOD.

 
RB longest TD Over special 

$20 dolla dolla bills

 RiskWin

(1) Longest TD/Scored in game o62½ (-115)$23.00$20.00

(2) Longest TD/Scored in game o57½ (-115)$23.00$20.00

(3) Longest TD/Scored in game o48½ (-115)$23.00$20.00

(4) Longest TD/Scored in game o60½ (-115)$23.00$20.00

(5) Longest TD/Scored in game o62½ (-115)$23.00$20.00

 
Dipping back in here, gave away almost all of my profit on these last night..........

Kentucky/NW FH U26
Utah St./N Mexico St FH U33 (-120)
Wake/A&M FH U33.5 (-105)
NC St/ASU FH U31

 
WilliamBonney said:
Trayveon Williams u91.5

John Wolford u327.5
Click to expand...
Wake Forest’s offensive line, ranked in the top five in adjusted sack rate, is built to contain an Aggies defense that finished in the top five nationally in total sacks. Expect John Wolford to have a big day under center for Wake Forest, as Texas A&M has really struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks the past few years.

I was just punching my ticket to the over on Wolford

 
swirvenirvin said:
Wake Forest’s offensive line, ranked in the top five in adjusted sack rate, is built to contain an Aggies defense that finished in the top five nationally in total sacks. Expect John Wolford to have a big day under center for Wake Forest, as Texas A&M has really struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks the past few years.

I was just punching my ticket to the over on Wolford
Click to expand...
:kicksrock:

 
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