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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

swirvenirvin said:
Spartan sure seems like a trap..

70% on MSU moves from 8 to 7, MSU blows out decent Maryland team.  MSU struggled vs Rutgers in their one road game so far.  Wasnt very good last yr on the road.
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blowout city

 
This is very interesting to see Saints abandon the run game that got them here.  I mean its working just wasnt expected.  Only 6 first half runs

 
Close to the end of the game we were talking about how bad the QBs were and I wildly guessed that Bortles had more rushing yards than passing yards. 

Unreal. 

 
swirvenirvin said:
Trends/notes/whatever angle you want.

- How can you make money in the #NFLPlayoffs? Pick the straight-up winner Since 2003, the winning team in the Wild Card Round is 48-5-3 (90.6%) ATS

- L.A. and Sacksonville saw their win totals jump by seven games apiece. Since 1990, 23 other franchises had a win total improvement of seven or more games.  The teams that made a big jump from one year to the next went 13-18 (41.9%) straight-up and 9-22 (29.0%) ATS in the playoffs.

- Andy Reid is 1-6 straight-up and against the spread in his past seven postseason tilts

- Is Ed Hochuli a dog or cat person? Well, underdogs are 89-66-4 (57.4%) ATS under his watch, and big dogs, teams getting 6 or more points, have gone 36-19-2 (65.5%) ATS when Biceps Ed oversees a game.  Doing the Falcons game

-Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game

- In the past 15 seasons, 11 teams have played a home playoff game coming off a losing streak of two or more games. Those teams are 8-3 SU and ATS, and they have won and covered four in a row and six of their past seven dating back to the 2010 playoffs.  Jags

- The Saints beat the Panthers twice during the regular season, and since 1990, 16 teams have defeated the same opponent twice straight up in the same season and then subsequently faced them again in the playoffs. Those teams are 11-5 SU and 8-7-1 ATS. 

- The total for Saints-Panthers sits at 47.5, the second-highest in the Wild Card round. A majority of bets and dollars are on the over, which could burn bettors. Ref Tony Corrente is the least profitable Over official in our database, going 64-87-2 (42.4%). In high total games (46 or more points), the Over is 22-36 (37.9%) when Corrente is on the field

- The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season. 

- The first method you can use when betting on playoff totals involves games played in a dome. Historically, taking the over in these games has been very profitable.

Closed Dome Games

OVERS

Record (win pct.)25-8 (75.8 percent)

Outdoor unders

If dome games usually go over in the playoffs, one would imagine that outdoor games may go under more often than not. If we take a look at the Bet Labs database, we find that has been the case since the 2003 season, even more so when focusing on high totals.

Outdoor Games

UNDERSUNDERS 47.5-PLUS

Record (win pct.)66-50-4 (56.9 percent)24-7-2 (77.4 percent)

Units won+12.12+15.38

ROI+10.1 percent+46.6 percent

Since many of these outdoor games have featured brutal winter elements, it's understandable that offenses have had a tough time scoring points. At nearly a 57 percent clip, betting on outdoor unders as a whole has been a profitable approach over the past decade-plus. However, if we only look at games with a closing total of 47.5 or higher, our winning percentage and return on investment both skyrocket.

Why it works

We saw that games go over in domed games regardless of the total, but when oddsmakers set high totals for outdoor games, the under has had a significant advantage.

This really goes against the public's beliefs, as it usually takes the over in games featuring potent offenses. Of the 33 outdoor playoff games since 2003 with a total of 47.5 or higher, only one has had more than 50 percent of bets on the under -- and it was 51 percent.

Taking the under in a football or basketball game always has some contrarian value because the public has historically sided with the over in more than 80 percent of games.

Wild-card match: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

There is one match this weekend that may scare off some bettors, and it features the Rams and their league-best offense. At 29.9 point per game (including the Sean MannionWeek 17 affair), the Rams shocked the league thanks to Todd Gurley II and Jared Goff. They'll be hosting Atlanta, whose high-scoring offense from 2016 had a down season. At 22.1 points per game, the Falcons were essentially an average team this season.

So far, 57 percent of bettors have taken the over, but 80 percent of the dollars have come in on the under. That caused the total to drop from 50 to 48.5 at the sharp offshore sportsbook Pinnacle, and from 50.5 to 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Try to grab the under on the highest number that you can in case it continues to drop.

Pick: Under 49 total points

Units won+16.41

ROI+49.7 percent

Not too shabby. Last season, playoff games in a dome went over the closing total every time, going 5-0. This even included the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, which closed with totals of 59.5 and 57, respectively.

Why it works

They say defense wins championships. Well, that may often be true, and many people expect unders to do well in the postseason given the caliber of playoff teams' defenses, but that does not hold true indoors.

With no elements to battle, postseason offenses run like well-oiled machines in closed domes. Though the total has dropped or remained at its opening number in 19 of the 33 matches, suggesting sharper bettors aren't expecting high-scoring affairs, it hasn't mattered. In fact, these totals have gone over by an average margin of 6.33 points.

Wild-card match: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

We have one match that fits this weekend, as two familiar foes clash in the Superdome. Six of the past seven games between the Saints and Panthers have gone over, including both games this season.

This game will be essentially a replica of the game a month ago, in which the Saints won 31-21. Seventy-nine percent of bettors took the over in that game, which opened and closed at 48. This weekend's total is sitting at 48.5/49 around the market, but just 54 percent of bettors are on the over.

As I mentioned before, it seems as if bettors expect playoff games to be more of a defensive showdown than regular-season games. There really isn't a reason why close to 80 percent of bettors liked the over a month ago, but barely half do now. It's the same teams, same coaches and same players. Nothing has changed other than the fact that we're now in the playoffs.

With 57 percent of dollars on the under, we may see this total drop down to 48 by week's end. Keep an eye on the number but take the over below 49 if you can.
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this stuff was solid.. from chalk the amin writeups and then a few other betlabs, sportsinsights, etc, but crap made me money

 
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The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season. 

Pasting that from swirve.. think about fading philly and NE next weekend. And maybe NO

 
If Brooks Koepka keeps playing with this wrist, I think it's safe to keep fading him in matchups until he shows he's better My guess is he'll take some time off, but just keep your eyes on it.

 
well it was a good run on pucks 1-0 on the season. a good puck run. but all good things must come to an end. I retire from pucks undefeated. thanks pucks

 
gussy said:
Sentry Tournament of Champions:

Leishman +1700 (.4 units)
A. Cook +5000 (.2 units)
Matsuyama +1100 (1 unit)
Harman +3200 (.2 units)

Matsuyama (-110) over Rahm (2 units)
Leishman (+110) over Koepka
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1-1 in matchups
0-4 in futures

-2.9 units

Fairly pleased with how I capped it, Leishman and Harman both had chances until DJ put it in overdrive, and Matsu is going to finish top 5.
Did not anticipate Rahm playing that well and that was responsible for the majority of the loss. Hopefully we can hit a few longshots this
year. Was looking for a way to get money on DJ this morning but outside of a -200 in a matchup with Harman I didn't see anything, so I
passed. Hopefully most tournaments there will be opportunities to buy out in those type of situations.

 
swirvenirvin said:
yeah he visor poked him in the eye :lmao:

what a joke
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I had cam u19 comp and u31.5 att, he was 19/30 when that happened and I thought I got lucky.  If you watch the tackle his hand does that freaky thing hands do when concussed (tyrods was really bad) then he collapses running off the field.....and then right back in to throw a 4th completion to dead arm funchess (had u4)

Guess Carolina gonna get fined for that

 
lumpy19 said:
I had cam u19 comp and u31.5 att, he was 19/30 when that happened and I thought I got lucky.  If you watch the tackle his hand does that freaky thing hands do when concussed (tyrods was really bad) then he collapses running off the field.....and then right back in to throw a 4th completion to dead arm funchess (had u4)

Guess Carolina gonna get fined for that
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had the under 19 as well... and u4 on funch :angry:

 
@Angry Beavers  @Tiger Fan  @Getzlaf15  @gussy  @JaxBill

For those that remember the NHL bye week advantage we used and abused last year, bye weeks started yesterday:

ANAHEIM DUCKS: Jan. 7-12

ARIZONA COYOTES: Jan. 7-11

BOSTON BRUINS: Jan. 8-12

BUFFALO SABRES: Jan. 12-17

CALGARY FLAMES: Jan. 15-19

CAROLINA HURRICANES: Jan. 15-19

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Jan. 15-19

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Jan. 7-12

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: Jan. 13-17

DALLAS STARS: Jan. 7-12

DETROIT RED WINGS: Jan. 8-12

EDMONTON OILERS: Jan. 14-19

FLORIDA PANTHERS: Jan. 13-18

LOS ANGELES KINGS: Jan. 7-12

MINNESOTA WILD: Jan. 15-19

MONTREAL CANADIENS: Jan. 8-12

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Jan. 10-15

NEW JERSEY DEVILS: Jan. 8-12

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: Jan. 8-12

NEW YORK RANGERS: Jan. 8-12

OTTAWA SENATORS: Jan. 11-17

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: Jan. 8-12

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Jan. 8-12

SAN JOSE SHARKS: Jan. 8-12

ST. LOUIS BLUES: Jan. 10-15

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Jan. 12-17

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Jan. 11-15

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Jan. 15-19

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: Jan. 8-12

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: Jan. 13-17

WINNIPEG JETS: Jan. 14-19

 
Kudos to mybookie, request $4200 cashout which takes 5 days to process....lose remaining 8k in account, bitcoin payment processes at btc peak value and then plummets back to the price I requested the payout which eats up $500.

 
Billy Bats said:
@Angry Beavers  @Tiger Fan  @Getzlaf15  @gussy  @JaxBill

For those that remember the NHL bye week advantage we used and abused last year, bye weeks started yesterday:

ANAHEIM DUCKS: Jan. 7-12

ARIZONA COYOTES: Jan. 7-11

BOSTON BRUINS: Jan. 8-12

BUFFALO SABRES: Jan. 12-17

CALGARY FLAMES: Jan. 15-19

CAROLINA HURRICANES: Jan. 15-19

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Jan. 15-19

COLORADO AVALANCHE: Jan. 7-12

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: Jan. 13-17

DALLAS STARS: Jan. 7-12

DETROIT RED WINGS: Jan. 8-12

EDMONTON OILERS: Jan. 14-19

FLORIDA PANTHERS: Jan. 13-18

LOS ANGELES KINGS: Jan. 7-12

MINNESOTA WILD: Jan. 15-19

MONTREAL CANADIENS: Jan. 8-12

NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Jan. 10-15

NEW JERSEY DEVILS: Jan. 8-12

NEW YORK ISLANDERS: Jan. 8-12

NEW YORK RANGERS: Jan. 8-12

OTTAWA SENATORS: Jan. 11-17

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: Jan. 8-12

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Jan. 8-12

SAN JOSE SHARKS: Jan. 8-12

ST. LOUIS BLUES: Jan. 10-15

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Jan. 12-17

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Jan. 11-15

VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Jan. 15-19

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS: Jan. 8-12

WASHINGTON CAPITALS: Jan. 13-17

WINNIPEG JETS: Jan. 14-19
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I do not know what you are referring but am HIGHLY INTERESTED

 
UGA +3.5 tonight.

Initial leans for divisional weekend are teasing Eagles and Steelers to +9 and -1.5, and Titans +13.5. Minny/NO line is solid, would lean Minny but will see how that moves.

 
belljr said:
I do not know what you are referring but am HIGHLY INTERESTED
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The plays were to go against them on their first game back after the bye, and back to playing them the second game back. The first trend was better. A couple guys were hitting 4 and 5 team parlays. 

 
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lumpy19 said:
Kudos to mybookie, request $4200 cashout which takes 5 days to process....lose remaining 8k in account, bitcoin payment processes at btc peak value and then plummets back to the price I requested the payout which eats up $500.
Click to expand...
buy some DBC with that BTC, you'll make that $500 back in 10 minutes and rewire your brain to never care about a 12.5% swing again

 
Big League Chew said:
can we run a betlabs on this?!
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It might not be too good this year, it seems like half the league is on the bye at the same time so it will probably be tough to find them playing against anyone other than another bye week team when they come back. Seems like the bye week is more confined than they were last year. 

 
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Billy Bats said:
It might not be too good this year, it seems like half the league is on the bye at the same time so it will probably be tough to find them playing against anyone other than another bye week team when they come back. Seems like the bye week is more confined than they were last year. 
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Thanks for bringing this back around. I had completely forgotten about this from last year. Glancing at the schedule it seems to me that last year they were only a few teams on bye at a time so there were many more games involving teams coming off of a bye, versus a team that had been playing. I'll have to work through the schedule when I get the chance.

UGA +3.5 - Alabama is banged up, the Media is making a big deal of Saban's assistants being 0-11 against him. I wonder in how many of those games the assistants could come close to matching up in terms of personnel. I expect a low scoring slugfest and think GA wins outright in a squeaker.  GLTA  AB

 
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