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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (13 Viewers)

Peyton Marino said:
buy some DBC with that BTC, you'll make that $500 back in 10 minutes and rewire your brain to never care about a 12.5% swing again
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I can't help but feel like by the time I get setup on Kucoin to buy DBC, you guys will have moved onto some other coin that's not sold on Binance or Kucoin.  Keep moving the cheese.

 
Angry Beavers said:
Thanks for bringing this back around. I had completely forgotten about this from last year. Glancing at the schedule it seems to me that last year they were only a few teams on bye at a time so there were many more games involving teams coming off of a bye, versus a team that had been playing. I'll have to work through the schedule when I get the chance.

UGA +3.5 - Alabama is banged up, the Media is making a big deal of Saban's assistants being 0-11 against him. I wonder in how many of those games the assistants could come close to matching up in terms of personnel. I expect a low scoring slugfest and think GA wins outright in a squeaker.  GLTA  AB
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avg line in those 11 games was 17

 
What the metrics say: Alabama’s bread and butter on offense is the run-pass option (RPO). QB Jalen Hurts has masked his inability to throw downfield for two seasons thanks to great decision making when running RPOs. But Georgia’s front seven, led by freakish LB Roquan Smith, has shut down similar RPO-reliant QBs this season.

The average Passing Success Rate for a QB is 40%. Here’s what a few RPO QBs did vs. the Dawgs this season:

Brandon Wimbush, Notre Dame: 21% Passing Success Rate

Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 27%

Jarrett Stidham, Auburn: 31%

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 37% 

 
Interesting.. Basically bet Warriors if getting less than 70%

Since hiring Steve Kerr, the #Warriors have gone 64-70-3 ATS (47.8%) when receiving at least 70% of spread bets. They're 124-85-2 ATS (59.3%) in all other games.

 
I've got a UGA futures ticket at 14-1 from about week 4 or 5 and I'm not hedging. I've just got a feeling. GO Dawgs.

 
Chicago Bears
(@ChicagoBears)

We have officially named Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as our new head coach. Welcome to Chicago, #HeadCoachNagy

 
swirvenirvin said:
What the metrics say: Alabama’s bread and butter on offense is the run-pass option (RPO). QB Jalen Hurts has masked his inability to throw downfield for two seasons thanks to great decision making when running RPOs. But Georgia’s front seven, led by freakish LB Roquan Smith, has shut down similar RPO-reliant QBs this season.

The average Passing Success Rate for a QB is 40%. Here’s what a few RPO QBs did vs. the Dawgs this season:

Brandon Wimbush, Notre Dame: 21% Passing Success Rate

Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 27%

Jarrett Stidham, Auburn: 31%

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 37% 
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I believe that what you will see Bama do tonight is going to be very boring for the most part. This will be primarily a grind it out run game with an occasional pass to keep the D honest. If Georgia goes balls out to stop the run, you will see receivers open downfield. ...and while Hurts is an infrequent downfield guy if you leave Calvin Ridley wide open Hurts is eventually going to burn your ### with him.

 
Peyton Marino said:
Nice little 40% 4 hour gain if you bought the dip this morning
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yeah sorry i'm trying to gamble on sports while at work over here, don't have time to chase crypto as well

bo u42.5 rushing -135

fromm u1.5 passing td's -170

michel u65.5 -115

chubb u77.5 -115

fromm u187.5 passing

hurts u14.4 comp -145

hurts u1.5 passing td's -145

hurts u60.5 rushing -145

Adding:

Ridley u4.5 -1115

godwin u3.5 -150

Georgia +4

Ridley u26.5 longest rec

 
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lumpy19 said:
yeah sorry i'm trying to gamble on sports while at work over here, don't have time to chase crypto as well

bo u42.5 rushing -135

fromm u1.5 passing td's -170

michel u65.5 -115

chubb u77.5 -115

fromm u187.5 passing

hurts u14.4 comp -145

hurts u1.5 passing td's -145

hurts u60.5 rushing -145
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Never knew this was a Swirve alias 

 
lumpy19 said:
yeah sorry i'm trying to gamble on sports while at work over here, don't have time to chase crypto as well

bo u42.5 rushing -135

fromm u1.5 passing td's -170

michel u65.5 -115

chubb u77.5 -115

fromm u187.5 passing

hurts u14.4 comp -145

hurts u1.5 passing td's -145

hurts u60.5 rushing -145
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hey same as me.. but i only did all the rushing unders but fromm

 
vs saban/bama postseason

Oppo teams 5-14 SU and 8-11 ATS with 14-5 O/U:
Scoring > 7: 13-1 O/U 60±13
Scoring > 24: 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS
Scoring < 28: 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS

sdql

 
these things never really work the way they should but...

Is this Georgia team 3 points better than the 2016 Clemson team? Is Bama about the same as last year?

 
Not only am I not hedging, I'm effing adding.

Georgia +4
Georgia +160

we didn't come here to effing knit gentlemen and hedging is for #######.

Go Dawgs

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I'm gonna need a few more hot takes from people I've never seen post in this thread before I bet any money on this game tonight.
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Stu, how do you handle big games on weeknights like this, when/if the fourth quarter falls around bedtime for the kids? Let em stay up and watch? Make the wife do it?

 
first half under 23

michel u 67.5 rush

chubb u77.5 rush

1st score of game not a td

no score 1st 6 minutes of game

hurts will not throw an INT

hurts o 13,5 completions

hurts o 169.5 pass

harris o 69.5 rush

hurts u 59.5 rush

ridley scores at TD +120

wims o 47.5 rec

from Will throw an INT

harris score 2 or more td

also 7 pt teaser

alabama +3   

steelers - .5

 
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Good Posting Judge said:
Stu, how do you handle big games on weeknights like this, when/if the fourth quarter falls around bedtime for the kids? Let em stay up and watch? Make the wife do it?
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I don't even know if I'll make it to the 4th quarter, lol. They'll go to bed on time.

Something like the Super Bowl, we let them stay up for. But I didn't even know this game  was on tonight until I read the thread a few hours ago.

I honestly don't even know who plays QB for either team. Is it Baker Mayfield?

It's looking like a big NBA night though, stacked card. I'd love for one of my kids to show interest in sports, it's all unicorns and paw patrol in this house

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I don't even know if I'll make it to the 4th quarter, lol. They'll go to bed on time.

Something like the Super Bowl, we let them stay up for. But I didn't even know this game  was on tonight until I read the thread a few hours ago.

I honestly don't even know who plays QB for either team. Is it Baker Mayfield?

It's looking like a big NBA night though, stacked card. I'd love for one of my kids to show interest in sports, it's all unicorns and paw patrol in this house
Click to expand...
Good schtick right there

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I don't even know if I'll make it to the 4th quarter, lol. They'll go to bed on time.

Something like the Super Bowl, we let them stay up for. But I didn't even know this game  was on tonight until I read the thread a few hours ago.

I honestly don't even know who plays QB for either team. Is it Baker Mayfield?

It's looking like a big NBA night though, stacked card. I'd love for one of my kids to show interest in sports, it's all unicorns and paw patrol in this house
Click to expand...
Is raising a family WHAT YOU DOOOO!!??!?!?!?!!?

 
@Stuart Ullman

From a buddy who is bama alumni and doesn't post here.

 The coach at GA was our DC from the time Saban arrived at Bama until the year before last. The same weaknesses that Alabama D had with him as our DC now exist with the GA D. A highly mobile quarterback is a problem for them. If Nick Fitzgerald from Mississippi State could have passed at all, he would have been a problem for GA. The issue was that he couldn’t throw the ball downfield. Hurts is very mobile and he can hit receivers when he has to.

Eff the sharps?

 
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zander_s said:
@Stuart Ullman

From a buddy who is bama alumni and doesn't post here.

 The coach at GA was our DC from the time Saban arrived at Bama until the year before last. The same weaknesses that Alabama D had with him as our DC now exist with the GA D. A highly mobile quarterback is a problem for them. If Nick Fitzgerald from Mississippi State could have passed at all, he would have been a problem for GA. The issue was that he couldn’t throw the ball downfield. Hurts is very mobile and he can hit receivers when he has too.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm staying with my Bama -4.5 bet.  Eff the shraps.

 
zander_s said:
@Stuart Ullman

From a buddy who is bama alumni and doesn't post here.

 The coach at GA was our DC from the time Saban arrived at Bama until the year before last. The same weaknesses that Alabama D had with him as our DC now exist with the GA D. A highly mobile quarterback is a problem for them. If Nick Fitzgerald from Mississippi State could have passed at all, he would have been a problem for GA. The issue was that he couldn’t throw the ball downfield. Hurts is very mobile and he can hit receivers when he has to.

Eff the sharps?
Click to expand...
Did you see the post from swirv at the top of the page? Your buddy is wrong.

 
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