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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

hooter311 said:
UFC Fight Night 124

Main event is going to be real iffy because its impossible to tell where Choi's head is at.  He's been out a year after losing a war to Swanson and has to report for his 2 year mandatory military duty for South Korea before the end of 2018.  He was supposed to fight back in July but had to pull out with a shoulder injury he rested instead of had surgery on.  Choi is the better fighter but is in a tough spot to pick up the win.  Probably one I'm much more interested in watching than betting.

Kang/Canetti u2.5 -120

Burnell/Santiago u2.5 -120

Aldrich -115 

Aldana -161

Eye -138

Reyes +184

White/Krause u2.5 +160

Johnson/Elkins u2.5 +165

Usman/Meek u2.5 +115

Clark -110

Choi/Stephens u1.5 +227
Click to expand...
didn't even see these. Clark was biggest play tonight. your card was a lot more packed then mine was. 

And i'm large on Stipe at +170....

 
hooter311 said:
UFC Fight Night 124

Main event is going to be real iffy because its impossible to tell where Choi's head is at.  He's been out a year after losing a war to Swanson and has to report for his 2 year mandatory military duty for South Korea before the end of 2018.  He was supposed to fight back in July but had to pull out with a shoulder injury he rested instead of had surgery on.  Choi is the better fighter but is in a tough spot to pick up the win.  Probably one I'm much more interested in watching than betting.

Kang/Canetti u2.5 -120- W

Burnell/Santiago u2.5 -120- L

Aldrich -115 -W

Aldana -161 -W

Eye -138- W

Reyes +184 - W

White/Krause u2.5 +160- L

Johnson/Elkins u2.5 +165- W

Usman/Meek u2.5 +115- L

Clark -110- W

Choi/Stephens u1.5 +227 L
Click to expand...
7-4 +4.29 units

That almost makes me even on UFC recently after that 0-4 debacle a couple weeks ago.  Just missed the +227 Main Event winner by 6 seconds.

33rd/1600+ on tapology, should have made more.

https://www.tapology.com/profiles/hooter311/predictions/48676-ufc

 
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"Thank you, the bet builder option was removed from your account as per management decision"

cut to $10 on props and BB cut.. 

####u5dimes

 
swirvenirvin said:
One thing I forgot about the Christmas stuff was that teams were playing on TV in the theory was that they would actually play defense
Click to expand...
True, but you have to figure these day games mess with the bio rhythms of these guys who are used to afternoon naps, playing in the evening etc.  I thought the theory was that would lead to unders as they were less likely to push the pace, but maybe we need our resident bio rhythm expect aka @ChainsawU to let us know what to expect when these situations present themselves.  

 
Early NFL Thoughts:

Already on Philly +3.5 - home playoff dog  - that has to be unusual for the home team in the Conference Championship to be the dog; Philly payed off once, so why not roll with them again?

It would be great if Jax would get to 10 as 9 is a dead number. I think Jax may actually disrupt the NE road the SB. They are most equipped to anyway with a running game and a tough D.

 
Angry Beavers said:
Early NFL Thoughts:

Already on Philly +3.5 - home playoff dog  - that has to be unusual for the home team in the Conference Championship to be the dog; Philly payed off once, so why not roll with them again?

It would be great if Jax would get to 10 as 9 is a dead number. I think Jax may actually disrupt the NE road the SB. They are most equipped to anyway with a running game and a tough D.
Click to expand...
9 might be a dead number, but it's no 5

 
this explains why have been doing well in the sides and totals

Favorites: 1-7 ATS

Home Teams: 2-6 ATS

Home Favorites: 1-6 ATS

Home Underdogs: 1-0 ATS

Over/Under: 4-4

Over/Under Outdoors: 2-4

Over/Under Indoors: 2-0

 
Bucknell -4
W. Virginia -5.5

heavy lean to Penn St, 8.5 is a big number, haven't decided yet. Also kind of like BC at home tonight, not sure if I'll play that or not.
Terrence Mann is back, so that has me pausing..........

 
Since 2014 Oakland 17-7-1 ATS away versus Horizon League. They went 14-1 ATS coming in on more than a day's rest, and 11-0 ATS lined less than +8 in those games. sdql

Oakland -4½ -103

 
Clips 3rd in 5 and Rox rested two days with two days until next game..

Rockets playing w revenge

 
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Opposing teams rush less versus the Eagles than against any other team (21 per game; 35% of play selection). But that's got to be because they were playing catch-up versus Wentz and them, right?

 
ChainsawU said:
Opposing teams rush less versus the Eagles than against any other team (21 per game; 35% of play selection). But that's got to be because they were playing catch-up versus Wentz and them, right?
Click to expand...
Mike Zimmer's offense, in his career as HC, has averaged 44% rushing plays. This season it's 47% (4th NFL):
When Vikes rush 29 or more times per game: 14-0 SU and 11-0-3 ATS
When Vikes rush 22 or less times per game: 0-3 SU and ATS

Zimmer career 40-26 SU and 44-19-3 ATS:
Rushing less than 38% on offense: 1-19 SU and 4-16 ATS
Rushing more than 38% on offense: 39-7 SU and 40-3-3 ATS

 
ChainsawU said:
Opposing teams rush less versus the Eagles than against any other team (21 per game; 35% of play selection). But that's got to be because they were playing catch-up versus Wentz and them, right?
Click to expand...
teams behind often yes, but also the Eagles front was very good and hard to run on at times

 
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